{"id":78156,"date":"2025-05-07T00:25:40","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T22:25:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=78156"},"modified":"2025-05-06T15:01:25","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T13:01:25","slug":"andrew-korybko-putin-a-si-tin-pching-by-mohli-uzavrit-velkou-dohodu-ktera-by-vstoupila-v-platnost-pokud-by-se-rozhovory-o-ukrajine-zhroutily","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/07\/andrew-korybko-putin-a-si-tin-pching-by-mohli-uzavrit-velkou-dohodu-ktera-by-vstoupila-v-platnost-pokud-by-se-rozhovory-o-ukrajine-zhroutily\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Putin a Si \u0164in-pching by mohli uzav\u0159\u00edt velkou dohodu, kter\u00e1 by vstoupila v platnost, pokud by se rozhovory o Ukrajin\u011b zhroutily"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Putin by mohl pot\u0159ebovat Si \u0164in-pchingovu pomoc, pokud Trump v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zhroucen\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f \u201eeskaluje, aby deeskaloval\u201c.<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Si \u0164in-pchinga v Moskv\u011b od 7. do 10. kv\u011btna je ofici\u00e1ln\u011b zam\u00fd\u0161lena jako p\u0159ipom\u00ednka 80.\u00a0v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed\u00a0<\/sup>konce druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v Evrop\u011b, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e vrcholem bude jeho \u00fa\u010dast na p\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159ehl\u00eddce na Rud\u00e9m n\u00e1m\u011bst\u00ed. Kreml ve sv\u00e9m\u00a0ozn\u00e1men\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>rovn\u011b\u017e zm\u00ednil, \u017ee s Putinem bude jednat o \u0159ad\u011b ot\u00e1zek a podep\u00ed\u0161e \u0159adu mezivl\u00e1dn\u00edch dohod, tak\u017ee by se mohlo jednat o n\u011bco d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edho. Kontext, v n\u011bm\u017e se tato jedn\u00e1n\u00ed konaj\u00ed, nazna\u010duje, \u017ee budou v\u00fdznamn\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Zelenskyj pro za\u010d\u00e1tek implicitn\u011b pohrozil, \u017ee Ukrajina by mohla za\u00fato\u010dit na p\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159ehl\u00eddku, co\u017e nevyvolalo \u017e\u00e1dnou ve\u0159ejnou reakci Trumpa, p\u0159esto\u017ee se ke v\u0161em ostatn\u00edm ot\u00e1zk\u00e1m vyj\u00e1d\u0159il, tak\u017ee to\u00a0lze interpretovat\u00a0<\/a>jako jeho tich\u00fd souhlas. Si \u0164in-pching tedy svou \u00fa\u010dast\u00ed podstupuje skute\u010dn\u00e9 osobn\u00ed riziko, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 projevuje svou v\u00edru v rusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed za \u00fakol chr\u00e1nit jeho a ostatn\u00ed hosty. Tato propojen\u00e1 gesta Putin a v\u0161ichni ru\u0161t\u00ed politici jist\u011b ocen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

M\u00edrov\u00fd proces mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou zprost\u0159edkovan\u00fd USA se\u00a0dostal do slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky\u00a0<\/a>, kterou je\u0161t\u011b zhor\u0161uj\u00ed Trumpovy spekulace, \u017ee ho Putin mo\u017en\u00e1 jen \u201eprovokuje\u201c. \u010c\u00edna realisticky nem\u016f\u017ee nahradit USA, pokud se st\u00e1hnou, proto\u017ee na Ukrajinu nem\u00e1 vliv, ale Si \u0164in-pching pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 od Putina podrobn\u00fd popis toho, co se v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b pokazilo a pro\u010d. To by mohlo v\u00e9st k dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti jejich rozhovor\u016f o tom, co Rusko pl\u00e1nuje ud\u011blat, pokud m\u00edrov\u00fd proces zkolabuje.<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b udr\u017een\u00ed vojensk\u00e9ho tempa, jak\u00e9 tomu bylo po celou dobu, by Rusko mohlo\u00a0roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it svou pozemn\u00ed kampa\u0148\u00a0<\/a>do ukrajinsk\u00fdch region\u016f, na kter\u00e9 si Moskva (zat\u00edm?) nen\u00e1rokuje. Soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s t\u00edm by Trumpovo postupn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed do konfliktu mohlo v\u00e9st k jeho \u201eeskalaci za \u00fa\u010delem deeskalace\u201c, a\u0165 u\u017e ve v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, nebo jednodu\u0161e jako trest za krach rozhovor\u016f, pokud obvin\u00ed Putina. Putin by tak mohl od Si \u0164in-pchinga po\u017e\u00e1dat o vojenskou pomoc nebo alespo\u0148 o z\u00e1vazek, \u017ee nebude dodr\u017eovat\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed sankce\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna dosud neposlala Rusku vojenskou pomoc a neform\u00e1ln\u011b ji\u017e dodr\u017euje\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00e9\u00a0<\/a>sankce,\u00a0<\/a>proto\u017ee Si \u0164in-pching nechce USA provokovat. Jeho v\u00fdpo\u010dty se v\u0161ak mohly zm\u011bnit od za\u010d\u00e1tku Trumpovy\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky\u00a0<\/a>, jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem je\u00a0kompenzovat trajektorii \u010c\u00edny jako supervelmoci\u00a0<\/a>. Pokud Si \u0164in-pching v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd a\/nebo vojensk\u00fd tlak ze strany USA je nevyhnuteln\u00fd, pak by mohl Putinov\u00fdm spekulativn\u00edm po\u017eadavk\u016fm vyhov\u011bt, ale pouze pokud v\u00fdhody p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017e\u00ed n\u00e1klady na urychlen\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 n\u00e1tlakov\u00e9 kampan\u011b USA.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdm\u011bnou za to, co po\u017eadoval, by Putin mohl ustoupit Si \u0164in-pchingovu\u00a0\u00fadajn\u00e9mu po\u017eadavku\u00a0<\/a>na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed cen plynu pro pozastaven\u00fd plynovod S\u00edla Sibi\u0159e 2, nab\u00eddnout podobn\u011b preferen\u010dn\u00ed podm\u00ednky pro spolupr\u00e1ci na dal\u0161\u00edch projektech v oblasti zdroj\u016f (v\u010detn\u011b vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin) a pos\u00edlit\u00a0strategickou vojensko-technickou spolupr\u00e1ci\u00a0<\/a>. Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, Putin by musel opustit\u00a0rod\u00edc\u00ed se\u00a0<\/a>rusko\u00a0<\/a>–\u00a0americk\u00e9\u00a0<\/a>\u201e\u00a0nov\u00e9\u00a0<\/a>uvoln\u011bn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>\u201c, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 pos\u00edlit geostrategick\u00e9 vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed jeho zem\u011b, co\u017e by z n\u00ed mohlo ud\u011blat \u201ejuniorn\u00edho partnera\u201c \u010c\u00edny.<\/p>\n

Jedin\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, ve kter\u00e9m by to v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zva\u017eoval, by byl, kdyby m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed propadla a USA \u201eeskalovaly, aby deeskalovaly\u201c, co\u017e jsou vzhledem k ned\u00e1vn\u00fdm ud\u00e1lostem v\u011brohodn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti, a proto by mohl b\u011bhem rozhovor\u016f tento t\u00fdden s Si \u0164in-pchingem uzav\u0159\u00edt velkou dohodu, kter\u00e1 by vstoupila v platnost pouze v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b. Pokud tedy chce Trump zabr\u00e1nit Rusku v nastartov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 supervelmoci, mus\u00ed donutit Ukrajinu k\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edm \u00fastupk\u016fm\u00a0<\/a>v\u016f\u010di Rusku za ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu za lep\u0161\u00edch podm\u00ednek pro Putina.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Putin by mohl pot\u0159ebovat Si \u0164in-pchingovu pomoc, pokud Trump v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zhroucen\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f \u201eeskaluje,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":78157,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,924,22,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78156"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78156"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78156\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78157"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78156"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78156"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78156"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}