{"id":78138,"date":"2025-05-07T00:12:45","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T22:12:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=78138"},"modified":"2025-05-06T15:04:40","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T13:04:40","slug":"upadek-swiftu-jak-svetove-mocnosti-unikaji-dolarove-pasti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/05\/07\/upadek-swiftu-jak-svetove-mocnosti-unikaji-dolarove-pasti\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00dapadek SWIFTu: Jak sv\u011btov\u00e9 mocnosti unikaj\u00ed dolarov\u00e9 pasti"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

USA pou\u017e\u00edvaly SWIFT jako zbra\u0148 k potrest\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch nep\u0159\u00e1tel \u2013 nyn\u00ed si v\u0161ak spojenci i protivn\u00edci buduj\u00ed \u00fanikov\u00e9 cesty z glob\u00e1ln\u00edho finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9ho dolarem.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zbra\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edch financ\u00ed se stalo z\u00e1kladn\u00edm kamenem americk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky. \u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed v\u00fdznam m\u00e1 washingtonsk\u00e1 kontrola nad Spole\u010dnost\u00ed pro celosv\u011btovou mezibankovn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed telekomunikaci (SWIFT), slu\u017ebou finan\u010dn\u00edch zpr\u00e1v, kter\u00e1 byla kdysi pova\u017eov\u00e1na za neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed platformu, ale nyn\u00ed je otev\u0159en\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1na k vynucov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch sankc\u00ed a izolaci odp\u016frc\u016f.<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump hrozil ekonomick\u00fdmi sankcemi zem\u00edm, kter\u00e9 opust\u00ed dolar, jeho prvn\u00edch 100 dn\u00ed v \u00fa\u0159adu zaznamenalo nejprud\u0161\u00ed pokles m\u011bny od Nixonovy \u00e9ry. Tento symbolick\u00fd okam\u017eik se shodoval s glob\u00e1ln\u00edm posunem, kter\u00fd ji\u017e prob\u00edhal: rostouc\u00edm \u00fasil\u00edm n\u00e1rod\u016f o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed jejich z\u00e1vislosti na finan\u010dn\u00ed infrastruktu\u0159e kontrolovan\u00e9 USA.<\/p>\n

Dnes se rostouc\u00ed koalice st\u00e1t\u016f \u2013 n\u011bkter\u00e9 sankcionovan\u00e9, jin\u00e9 prost\u011b opatrn\u00e9 \u2013 odvrac\u00ed od americk\u00e9ho dolaru a s\u00edt\u011b SWIFT a p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1 nov\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 slibuj\u00ed fungov\u00e1n\u00ed mimo dosah Washingtonu.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1stroj ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00e1lky<\/h3>\n

SWIFT nen\u00ed ani banka, ani poskytovatel platebn\u00edch slu\u017eeb, ale platforma pro zas\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed zpr\u00e1v, kter\u00e1 umo\u017e\u0148uje finan\u010dn\u00edm instituc\u00edm bezpe\u010dn\u011b p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161et transak\u010dn\u00ed pokyny p\u0159es hranice. Jejich hlavn\u00ed v\u00fdhodou je rychlost, \u0161ifrov\u00e1n\u00ed a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 univerz\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159ijet\u00ed a standardizace. Banky v r\u016fzn\u00fdch zem\u00edch, kter\u00e9 operuj\u00ed v r\u016fzn\u00fdch jazyc\u00edch a m\u011bn\u00e1ch, se na tento syst\u00e9m ji\u017e dlouho spol\u00e9haj\u00ed pro hladk\u00fd chod sv\u00e9ho podnik\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Tento obraz byl po\u0161kozen v roce 2006, kdy vy\u0161lo najevo, \u017ee SWIFT tajn\u011b p\u0159ed\u00e1val data o transakc\u00edch CIA a americk\u00e9mu ministerstvu financ\u00ed v r\u00e1mci Programu pro sledov\u00e1n\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed terorismu (TFTP). Toto sledov\u00e1n\u00ed pokra\u010duje a N\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed agentura USA (NSA) nyn\u00ed monitoruje zpr\u00e1vy SWIFT.<\/p>\n

Pak p\u0159i\u0161el rok 2012, kdy dvoustrann\u00ed jest\u0159\u00e1bi z hnut\u00ed United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) tla\u010dili na SWIFT, aby p\u0159eru\u0161ila vztahy s Teher\u00e1nem, a obvinili zemi z poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed sankc\u00ed USA a EU. SWIFT ho rychle n\u00e1sledoval. Ale kdy\u017e palestin\u0161t\u00ed aktivist\u00e9 po\u017eadovali tot\u00e9\u017e od Izraele kv\u016fli v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm zlo\u010din\u016fm, kampa\u0148 byla ignorov\u00e1na. Pot\u00e9, co SWIFT vytvo\u0159il precedent, vylou\u010dil v roce 2017 Severn\u00ed Koreu a v roce 2022 Rusko.<\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va byla jasn\u00e1: SWIFT ji\u017e nen\u00ed neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed. Byl to n\u00e1stroj ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Vznik\u00e1 nov\u00e1 architektura<\/h3>\n

Zastaven\u00ed SWIFTu m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159es noc ochromit ekonomiku. Banky jsou izolovan\u00e9 a ji\u017e nemohou odes\u00edlat ani p\u0159ij\u00edmat platby, a to ani od nez\u00e1padn\u00edch partner\u016f. Obchod se zastav\u00ed. Ale tato taktika se ukazuje jako sebedestruktivn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pot\u00e9, co Z\u00e1pad pohrozil ukon\u010den\u00edm spojen\u00ed po anexi Krymu v roce 2014, Rusko vyvinulo vlastn\u00ed platformu: Syst\u00e9m pro p\u0159enos finan\u010dn\u00edch zpr\u00e1v (SPFS), kter\u00fd byl spu\u0161t\u011bn v roce 2017. Dnes SPFS zahrnuje 177 zahrani\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed z 25 zem\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n, kter\u00fd v roce 2023 za\u010dal s integrac\u00ed mezibankovn\u00edch komunika\u010dn\u00edch a remitence syst\u00e9m\u016f s Ruskem, pracuje na vlastn\u00ed infrastruktu\u0159e finan\u010dn\u00edch zpr\u00e1v zn\u00e1m\u00e9 jako Automated Currency Management and Exchange Reporting (ACUMER).<\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzvou pro SWIFT v\u0161ak nep\u0159edstavuj\u00ed sankcionovan\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, ale rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se mocnosti, kter\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed budouc\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed ze strany Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna spustila syst\u00e9m p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edch mezibankovn\u00edch plateb (CIPS) v roce 2015. I kdy\u017e pro mnoho transakc\u00ed nad\u00e1le pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 SWIFT, CIPS m\u00e1 vlastn\u00ed vrstvu pro zas\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed zpr\u00e1v, kter\u00e1 umo\u017e\u0148uje bezprobl\u00e9mov\u00fd obchod s Ruskem a dal\u0161\u00edmi partnery. Syst\u00e9mu CIPS se nyn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 4 800 bank \u2013 zhruba polovina z celkov\u00e9ho po\u010dtu bank SWIFT, p\u0159esto\u017ee syst\u00e9m je star\u00fd m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e deset let.<\/p>\n

Blok BRICS si uv\u011bdomil pot\u0159ebu jednotn\u00e9 p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed alternativy a v roce 2018 za\u010dal s v\u00fdvojem syst\u00e9mu \u201eBRICS Pay\u201c. Zem\u011b BRICS s ekonomick\u00fdm v\u00fdkonem, kter\u00fd je nyn\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e u zem\u00ed G7, p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159etinu sv\u011btov\u00e9 ekonomiky. BRICS Pay zah\u00e1jil pilotn\u00ed platby v roce 2019 a v \u0159\u00edjnu 2024 z\u00edskal plnou podporu \u010c\u00edny. Projekt je st\u00e1le v pilotn\u00ed f\u00e1zi, ale jeho potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed rozsah z n\u011bj d\u011bl\u00e1 dosud nejv\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edho konkurenta SWIFTu.<\/p>\n

Rychl\u00fd odchod od dolaru<\/h3>\n

Odklon od SWIFTu se v\u0161ak ji\u017e neomezuje pouze na americk\u00e9 odp\u016frce.<\/p>\n

V roce 2022 spustilo Sdru\u017een\u00ed n\u00e1rod\u016f jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie (ASEAN) \u2013 blok deseti zem\u00ed p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b p\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch k USA s celkovou populac\u00ed 600 milion\u016f \u2013 iniciativu Region\u00e1ln\u00ed platebn\u00ed konektivity (RPC). Vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed platebn\u00ed syst\u00e9my v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase, jako je singapursk\u00fd PayNow a thajsk\u00fd PromptPay, k umo\u017en\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch p\u0159evod\u016f bez SWIFTu.<\/p>\n

D\u0159\u00edve vy\u017eadovaly p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed transakce mezi zem\u011bmi ASEAN p\u0159evod na americk\u00e9 dolary a z americk\u00fdch dolar\u016f. Nap\u0159\u00edklad singapursk\u00e9 dolary byly nejprve p\u0159evedeny na americk\u00e9 dolary a pot\u00e9 na filip\u00ednsk\u00e9 pesos. RPC takov\u00e9 konverze obch\u00e1z\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm\u017e sni\u017euje n\u00e1klady a zvy\u0161uje efektivitu.<\/p>\n

Ve stejn\u00e9m roce Africk\u00e1 unie spustila Panafrick\u00fd platebn\u00ed a z\u00fa\u010dtovac\u00ed syst\u00e9m (PAPSS), kter\u00fd tak\u00e9 ru\u0161\u00ed SWIFT a dolarov\u00e9ho zprost\u0159edkovatele.<\/p>\n

Tato tich\u00e1 revoluce mezi washingtonsk\u00fdmi partnery signalizuje hlub\u0161\u00ed posun: Dokonce i spojenci maj\u00ed podez\u0159en\u00ed z politizace SWIFTu.<\/p>\n

Monopol se hrout\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Navzdory tomuto trendu SWIFT nezmiz\u00ed p\u0159es noc. Mnoho instituc\u00ed jej pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 spolu s alternativami k maximalizaci p\u0159\u00edstupu na trh. \u0160\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f zas\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed zpr\u00e1v v\u0161ak d\u00e1v\u00e1 zem\u00edm poprv\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost prosadit si ekonomickou suverenitu.<\/p>\n

V roce 2012 se \u00cdr\u00e1n st\u00e1le musel uchylovat k barteru a pa\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed zlata, aby obe\u0161el sankce. Dnes m\u016f\u017ee obchodovat s \u010c\u00ednou prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm CIPS a s Ruskem prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm SPFS. S ka\u017edou dal\u0161\u00ed platformou ztr\u00e1c\u00ed z\u00e1kaz SWIFTu svou \u00fa\u010dinnost.<\/p>\n

To tak\u00e9 sni\u017euje s\u00edlu prodejn\u00edch argument\u016f spole\u010dnosti SWIFT. Zabezpe\u010den\u00ed? Podkop\u00e1no americk\u00fdm dohledem a \u00fatokem hacker\u016f z Banglad\u00e9\u0161e v roce 2016, kter\u00fd zp\u016fsobil \u0161kody ve v\u00fd\u0161i 81 milion\u016f dolar\u016f. Rychlost? Zastaral\u00e9 syst\u00e9my re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho \u010dasu, jako jsou RPC a PAPSS. Univerz\u00e1lnost? S ka\u017edou vylou\u010denou zem\u00ed se zmen\u0161uje.<\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00e1 s\u00edla SWIFTu spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00e9m efektu: funguje, proto\u017ee ho pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00fd. Ale ka\u017ed\u00e9 politick\u00e9 odd\u011blen\u00ed tuto s\u00ed\u0165 oslabuje. Naproti tomu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd program CIPS nem\u00e1 historii rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch sankc\u00ed \u2013 je tak atraktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u00fato\u010di\u0161t\u011bm pro st\u00e1ty usiluj\u00edc\u00ed o finan\u010dn\u00ed stabilitu.<\/p>\n

Sev\u0159en\u00ed dolaru se uvol\u0148uje<\/h3>\n
\n
\n

Pokles SWIFTu jde ruku v ruce s klesaj\u00edc\u00edm vlivem americk\u00e9ho dolaru. Jako\u017eto str\u00e1\u017ece SWIFTu by Washington mohl potrestat jakoukoli zemi, kter\u00e1 by se v obchod\u011b vzdala dolaru. Ale s alternativn\u00edmi syst\u00e9my se tento vliv sni\u017euje.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie nyn\u00ed zkoumaj\u00ed obchod zalo\u017een\u00fd na renminbi \u2013 co\u017e je v\u00fdvoj, kter\u00fd by byl v dob\u00e1ch dominance dolaru nemysliteln\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Dominance USA ve financ\u00edch samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nezmiz\u00ed p\u0159es noc. Rychl\u00fd vzestup paraleln\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f zas\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed zpr\u00e1v v\u0161ak ukazuje, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed mocnosti \u2013 jak protivn\u00edci, tak spojenci \u2013 hledaj\u00ed zp\u016fsoby, jak se vymanit z finan\u010dn\u00ed orbity Z\u00e1padu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USA pou\u017e\u00edvaly SWIFT jako zbra\u0148 k potrest\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch nep\u0159\u00e1tel \u2013 nyn\u00ed si v\u0161ak spojenci i…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":78139,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1324,504,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78138"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78138"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78138\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78139"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}