{"id":77355,"date":"2025-04-26T06:12:20","date_gmt":"2025-04-26T04:12:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=77355"},"modified":"2025-04-26T06:12:20","modified_gmt":"2025-04-26T04:12:20","slug":"jiri-paroubek-vysledky-pruzkumu-verejneho-mineni-podle-agentur-za-brezen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/26\/jiri-paroubek-vysledky-pruzkumu-verejneho-mineni-podle-agentur-za-brezen\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: V\u00fdsledky pr\u016fzkumu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed podle agentur za b\u0159ezen"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Stanovit podle v\u00fdsledk\u016f pr\u016fzkumu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed n\u011bkolika \u010desk\u00fdch agentur ur\u010dit\u00e9 tendence ve v\u00fdvoji volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00ed politick\u00fdch stran je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00fd \u00fakol. Nelze se p\u0159itom u n\u011bkter\u00fdch agentur zbavit dojmu, \u017ee pon\u011bkud podl\u00e9haj\u00ed dojm\u016fm, anebo mo\u017en\u00e1 n\u011bjak\u00fdm jin\u00fdm vliv\u016fm.<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159ed n\u011bkolika dny jsem popisoval v\u00fdsledky pr\u016fzkumu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00fd p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161el volebn\u00ed preference politick\u00fdch stran za m\u011bs\u00edc b\u0159ezen podle agentur Kantar a Ipsos. Tyto agentury jsem v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech pova\u017eoval za dosti p\u0159esn\u00e9. I kdy\u017e mus\u00edm \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 z\u00a0t\u011bchto agentur vykazovala v\u00fdsledky, kter\u00e9 byly v\u00a0jednom \u010di dvou p\u0159\u00edpadech velmi odchyln\u00e9 od v\u00fdsledk\u016f voleb do sn\u011bmovny.<\/p>\n

U agentur Median a Stem jsem v\u00a0ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 minulosti vid\u011bl rozd\u00edly pon\u011bkud v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed\u2026 Pokud by cht\u011bl analytik ur\u010dit\u00e9 politick\u00e9 strany vyvozovat alespo\u0148 d\u00edl\u010d\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bry, pokud jde o tendence v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9 politice necel\u00e9ho p\u016fl roku p\u0159ed volbami, je to prakticky nemo\u017en\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Agentury Median a Stem v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b predikuj\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fd pokles podpory hnut\u00ed ANO v\u00a0posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech (Stem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed m\u011brou). Naopak agentury Kantar\u00a0a Ipsos d\u00e1vaj\u00ed hnut\u00ed ANO preference p\u0159es 35 %.<\/p>\n

V\u0161echny v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 agentury se shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee koalice Spolu by mohla m\u00edt ve volb\u00e1ch, pokud by se konaly v\u00a0b\u0159eznu max. zhruba 20 % hlas\u016f.<\/p>\n

STAN podle pr\u016fzkum\u016f v\u00a0posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech sp\u00ed\u0161e roste (Stem to t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nezaznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, ale Median ano). Spokojme se s\u00a0konstatov\u00e1n\u00edm, \u017ee podle agentur je pozice STANu n\u011bkde mezi 10 a\u017e 13 % volebn\u00ed podpory.<\/p>\n

Hnut\u00ed SPD je trochu o\u0159\u00ed\u0161ek. Kantar a Median vid\u00ed jeho podporu n\u011bkde kolem 7 %, Ipsos p\u0159edv\u00edd\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 10 % a Stem se dot\u00fdk\u00e1 hranice 9 %.<\/p>\n

Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b podle Medianu zaznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed klesaj\u00edc\u00ed podporu a\u017e k\u00a0 \u00a0 6 %. Naopak podle Stemu Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b razantn\u011b nar\u016fstaj\u00ed, pokud jde o podporu voli\u010d\u016f od 3,9 % v\u00a0lednu na 6,7 %, v\u00a0b\u0159eznu na\u00a0 6 %. Maxim\u00e1ln\u011b na podpo\u0159e 6,7 % pro tuto stranu se shoduj\u00ed t\u0159i agentury. Ipsos j\u00ed vid\u00ed na 5 %.<\/p>\n

Zato Pir\u00e1ti jsou stranou mal\u00e9ho z\u00e1zraku. V\u00a0posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika volb\u00e1ch se jim\u00a0 neda\u0159ilo, ale v\u0161echny agentury, jejich\u017e preference v\u00a0tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku komentuji, p\u0159edv\u00eddaj\u00ed jej\u00ed v\u00fdsledek n\u011bkde kolem 6 % nebo dokonce a\u017e 8 % (Median). U Medianu je to mal\u00fd z\u00e1zrak, nebo\u0165 Pir\u00e1ti m\u011bli podle t\u00e9to agentury v\u00a0lednu 4 % podpory a za b\u0159ezen jim vysko\u010dila na 8 %. N\u011bco bylo v\u00a0Medianu v\u00fdkyvem, bu\u010f sm\u011brem dol\u016f, nebo naopak nahoru. Tedy ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edmi agenturami.<\/p>\n

Koalice Sta\u010dilo! se u v\u011bt\u0161iny agentur pohybuje mezi 5 a\u017e 6 % podpory. U agentury Kantar by Sta\u010dilo! v\u016fbec nep\u0159ekonalo hranici 5 %. U t\u00e9to strany nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 vysledovat v\u00fdrazn\u00fd trend r\u016fstu vzh\u016fru.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o SOCDEM, jej\u00ed preference se u agentur pohybuj\u00ed vesm\u011bs do 3 % a podle Medianu a Stemu maj\u00ed klesaj\u00edc\u00ed tendenci.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stanovit podle v\u00fdsledk\u016f pr\u016fzkumu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed n\u011bkolika \u010desk\u00fdch agentur ur\u010dit\u00e9 tendence ve v\u00fdvoji volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":69002,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,6172,620,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77355"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77355"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77355\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/69002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}