{"id":77050,"date":"2025-04-23T00:19:31","date_gmt":"2025-04-22T22:19:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=77050"},"modified":"2025-04-22T13:43:56","modified_gmt":"2025-04-22T11:43:56","slug":"investice-do-umele-inteligence-cenova-bublina-nebo-nezastavitelny-trend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/23\/investice-do-umele-inteligence-cenova-bublina-nebo-nezastavitelny-trend\/","title":{"rendered":"Investice do um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence: cenov\u00e1 bublina, nebo nezastaviteln\u00fd trend?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd dramatick\u00fd propad akci\u00ed na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch uk\u00e1zal, v\u00a0jak k\u0159ehk\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed se investo\u0159i, velc\u00ed i drobn\u00ed, pohybuj\u00ed. S\u00e9rie v\u00fdrok\u016f jedin\u00e9ho \u010dlov\u011bka toti\u017e dok\u00e1zala rozkol\u00edsat trhy, ani\u017e by k\u00a0tomu byl jedin\u00fd fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fvod. A mezi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi \u201eob\u011b\u0165mi\u201c se objevily i technologick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00e9 v\u00a0minul\u00fdch n\u011bkolika letech pat\u0159ily k\u00a0tahoun\u016fm glob\u00e1ln\u00edho akciov\u00e9ho, ale i ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Na jazyk se proto vkr\u00e1d\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, zda propad hodnoty akci\u00ed technologick\u00fdch firem, kter\u00e9 rovn\u011b\u017e stoj\u00ed za dramatick\u00fdm rozvojem um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, nen\u00ed jen p\u0159irozenou korekc\u00ed tot\u00e1ln\u011b \u201ep\u0159ep\u00e1len\u00e9ho\u201c trhu. Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pot\u00e9, co m\u00e1me \u0159adu historick\u00fdch zku\u0161enost\u00ed z\u00a0jin\u00fdch segment\u016f, kter\u00e9 ve sv\u00fdch \u010dasech rovn\u011b\u017e p\u0159edstavovaly tahouny r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159edn\u011b je t\u0159eba \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee rozpozn\u00e1n\u00ed jak\u00e9koli bubliny na akciov\u00e9m trhu nastane ex post. Nikdo nen\u00ed schopen cenovou bublinu v\u011brohodn\u011b identifikovat v\u00a0moment\u011b, kdy se na trhu skute\u010dn\u011b tvo\u0159\u00ed. Jin\u00fdmi slovy v\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m okam\u017eiku, kdy se trhy vyd\u00e1vaj\u00ed sm\u011brem vzh\u016fru, se zd\u00e1, \u017ee k\u00a0tomu je i fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fvod, respektive \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina takov\u00e9ho pohybu se odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ve fundamentu. Pokud bychom toti\u017e dok\u00e1zali v\u017edy odli\u0161it bublinu od racion\u00e1ln\u011b zd\u016fvodniteln\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje, vlastn\u011b bychom v\u017edy investovali \u201eobjektivn\u011b\u201c racion\u00e1ln\u011b a bublina by se ani nenafoukla.<\/p>\n<p>To ale neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee si nem\u00e1me ot\u00e1zky jako \u201e\u017eijeme nyn\u00ed v\u00a0bublin\u011b?\u201c kl\u00e1st. Je tedy v\u00fdvoj za posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f \u010di p\u00e1r let v\u00a0akciov\u00e9m segmentu um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence cenovou bublinou, nebo jsme sv\u011bdky nezastaviteln\u00e9ho trendu?<\/p>\n<p>Nab\u00edz\u00ed se paralela s\u00a0bublinou, kterou akciov\u00e9 trhy za\u017eily na p\u0159elomu tis\u00edcilet\u00ed, respektive v\u00a0obdob\u00ed let 1996 a\u017e 2001, a pro kterou se v\u017eilo ozna\u010den\u00ed \u201ebublina dot com\u201c. Tehdej\u0161\u00ed rozvoj informa\u010dn\u00edch technologi\u00ed a internetu vedl k\u00a0pom\u011brn\u011b racion\u00e1ln\u00edmu p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b tento sektor je motorem budouc\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu. Kdo tedy nakoupil technologick\u00e9 akcie mezi prvn\u00edmi, m\u011bl velkou \u0161anci na nich vyd\u011blat. Nebudeme si ale nalh\u00e1vat, \u017ee p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na po\u010d\u00e1tku tohoto obdob\u00ed \u0161lo o velik\u00fd risk. P\u0159ipome\u0148me, \u017ee to, \u017ee se takov\u00e1 s\u00e1zka uk\u00e1zala jako skv\u011bl\u00e1, jsme se dozv\u011bd\u011bli a\u017e se zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm.<\/p>\n<p>A pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00a0roce 2001 do\u0161lo k\u00a0prop\u00edchnut\u00ed on\u00e9 technologick\u00e9 bubliny, je\u017e vedla poklesu hlavn\u00edho indexu newyorsk\u00e9 burzy zhruba o t\u0159etinu, technologick\u00fd Nasdaq propadl dokonce asi o t\u0159i \u010dtvrtiny. Nutno dodat, \u017ee v\u00a0t\u00e9 dob\u011b ji\u017e americk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed sm\u011b\u0159ovalo k\u00a0recesi a pomysln\u00fd h\u0159eb\u00ed\u010dek do rakve akciov\u00fdm trh\u016fm zatloukl nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed teroristick\u00fd \u00fatok v\u00a0d\u011bjin\u00e1ch USA v\u00a0podob\u011b \u00fatok\u016f na newyorsk\u00e9 World Trade Center.<\/p>\n<p>Z\u00a0tohoto pohledu se zd\u00e1, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace se od t\u00e9 p\u0159ed \u010dtvrtstolet\u00edm li\u0161\u00ed. Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence je zat\u00edm st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b v plenk\u00e1ch. Stejn\u011b tak zat\u00edm nic nenasv\u011bd\u010duje tomu, \u017ee by americk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed sm\u011b\u0159ovalo do recese z\u00a0fundament\u00e1ln\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f. Sou\u010dasn\u011b je ale pot\u0159eba se m\u00edt na pozoru, jednak kv\u016fli faktoru Trump, jednak kv\u016fli tomu, \u017ee technologick\u00e9 akcie zaznamenaly za posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolik m\u00e1lo let obrovsk\u00fd r\u016fst sv\u00e9 hodnoty. Je tedy mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9m v\u00fdvoji pozorovat ur\u010dit\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky existuj\u00edc\u00ed bubliny, z\u00e1rove\u0148 je velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee byl nastoupen nov\u00fd trend. Ot\u00e1zkou jen z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, zda v\u00fdvoj akci\u00ed je podobn\u011b strm\u00fd jako onen trend.<\/p>\n<p><strong>David Matulay, analytik <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investingfox.com\/cs\"><strong>InvestingFox<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd dramatick\u00fd propad akci\u00ed na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch uk\u00e1zal, v\u00a0jak k\u0159ehk\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed se investo\u0159i, velc\u00ed i&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":69819,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[286,1503,2194],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77050"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77050"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77050\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/69819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}