{"id":77026,"date":"2025-04-23T00:16:10","date_gmt":"2025-04-22T22:16:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=77026"},"modified":"2025-04-22T12:59:08","modified_gmt":"2025-04-22T10:59:08","slug":"studie-ucsf-ukazuje-riziko-hospitalizace-po-ockovani-covid-je-6krat-vyssi-nez-po-infekci-covid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/23\/studie-ucsf-ukazuje-riziko-hospitalizace-po-ockovani-covid-je-6krat-vyssi-nez-po-infekci-covid\/","title":{"rendered":"Studie UCSF ukazuje: Riziko hospitalizace po o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed COVID je 6kr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e po infekci COVID"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Shrnut\u00ed<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Na p\u0159edtiskov\u00e9m serveru byla nyn\u00ed zve\u0159ejn\u011bna\u00a0nov\u00e1\u00a0studie UCSF .<\/a><\/p>\n

Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledek je naprosto ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/p>\n

Pom\u011br\u00a0rizika (RR)<\/strong>\u00a0pro hospitalizaci u o\u010dkovan\u00fdch, COVID-naivn\u00edch jedinc\u016f ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s neo\u010dkovan\u00fdmi jedinci po infekci je:<\/em><\/p>\n

RR = 5,89<\/strong><\/em>
\n95% interval spolehlivosti: [4,80 \u2013 7,22]<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed dostali o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed proti COVID, m\u011bli\u00a0t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 6kr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed riziko<\/strong>\u00a0hospitalizace ne\u017e neo\u010dkovan\u00ed lid\u00e9 po infekci COVID.<\/p>\n

Co to znamen\u00e1 pro smrtelnost?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Po\u017e\u00e1dal jsem ChatGPT o objektivn\u00ed odhad. V\u00fdsledek:<\/p>\n

Pravd\u011bpodobnost \u00famrt\u00ed je\u00a03 a\u017e 6kr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed,<\/strong>\u00a0pokud se rozhodnete nechat se o\u010dkovat.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nejde samoz\u0159ejm\u011b o absolutn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br (jinak by byly \u00fadaje o celkov\u00e9 \u00famrtnosti mnohem dramati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed), ale ukazuje to, \u017ee vakc\u00edna\u00a0sp\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0<\/strong>zvy\u0161uje<\/strong>\u00a0\u00famrtnost\u00a0ne\u017e ji sni\u017euje.<\/p>\n

Pro\u010d n\u00e1m o tom CDC ne\u0159eklo?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Nesly\u0161el jsem o tom\u00a0nic\u00a0<\/strong>od CDC<\/strong>\u00a0, m\u00e9ho l\u00e9ka\u0159e ani m\u00e9di\u00ed\u00a0.<\/p>\n

O studiu<\/strong><\/h3>\n

N\u00e1zev:<\/strong>\u00a0Bhargava (2025)
\nT\u00e9ma:\u00a0<\/strong>Postakutn\u00ed n\u00e1sledky SARS-CoV-2 v populaci: rizikov\u00e9 faktory a vakc\u00edny<\/em><\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd poznatek: 6x vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed riziko hospitalizace<\/strong><\/h3>\n

6kr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed riziko<\/strong>\u00a0hospitalizace po o\u010dkov\u00e1n\u00ed proti COVID ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s infekc\u00ed COVID u neo\u010dkovan\u00fdch lid\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno,\u00a0\u201el\u00e9\u010den\u00ed\u201c m\u011blo za n\u00e1sledek hospitalizaci 6kr\u00e1t \u010dast\u011bji<\/strong>\u00a0ne\u017e samotn\u00e1 infekce.<\/p>\n

A je to je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed: Ti, kte\u0159\u00ed se rozhodli \u201enakazit se\u201c, m\u011bli to \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed, \u017ee se t\u00e9to nemoci \u00fapln\u011b vyhnuli. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b ti, kte\u0159\u00ed se rozhodli nechat se o\u010dkovat,\u00a0akceptovali 6,24% riziko<\/strong>\u00a0.<\/p>\n

Vzorek byl dostate\u010dn\u011b velk\u00fd, aby umo\u017enil vysoce statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry.<\/p>\n

To je neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9. Tohle je \u0160\u00cdLEN\u00c9.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

6x vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed riziko.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tohle je\u00a0vlakov\u00e1 nehoda<\/strong>\u00a0.<\/p>\n

RR\u00a0bylo 5,89<\/strong>\u00a0.
\nV\u00fdsledky Fisherova testu v\u00a0OR = 6,19<\/strong>\u00a0a\u00a0p-hodnota 4e-15<\/strong>\u00a0.
\nZkr\u00e1tka:\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 n\u00e1hoda. Velikost efektu: MASIVN\u00cd.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pro\u010d jsme nebyli varov\u00e1ni?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Jak je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee se tak siln\u00fd sign\u00e1l\u00a0neobjevil<\/strong>\u00a0v randomizovan\u00fdch studi\u00edch?<\/p>\n

Na<\/strong>\u00a0tuto ot\u00e1zku\u00a0mus\u00ed odpov\u011bd\u011bt l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00e1 komunita \u2013 ale pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b budou jednodu\u0161e tvrdit, \u017ee tato studie je chybn\u00e1 (bez v\u011brohodn\u00e9ho vysv\u011btlen\u00ed).<\/p>\n

Vakc\u00edny jsou ur\u010deny\u00a0ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed<\/strong>\u00a0, nikoli\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed\u00a0<\/strong>rizika<\/strong>\u00a0hospitalizace\u00a0.<\/p>\n

Co to znamen\u00e1 pro riziko smrti?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Po\u017e\u00e1dal jsem ChatGPT o neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed odhad:<\/p>\n

Pokud jsou vedlej\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky vyvolan\u00e9 vakc\u00ednou 2,8kr\u00e1t pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e srovnateln\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edznaky po COVID a riziko hospitalizace je 5,9\u20136,2, jak\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt riziko \u00famrt\u00ed?<\/em><\/p>\n

Kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 shrnut\u00ed:<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
V\u00fdsledek<\/th>\nO\u010dkov\u00e1no (nenaivn\u00ed COVID)<\/th>\nNeo\u010dkovan\u00fd (infikovan\u00fd)<\/th>\nRR \/ OR<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Pobyt v nemocnici<\/td>\n6,24 %<\/td>\n1,06 %<\/td>\nRR \u2248 5,89 \u2013 6,2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vedlej\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky (AE)<\/td>\n~2,8\u00d7 \u010dast\u011bji<\/td>\nodkaz<\/td>\nlog\u2082FC \u2265 1,5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

Odhad rizika \u00famrtnosti<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Krok 1: Pom\u011br hospitalizace a \u00famrt\u00ed<\/h4>\n

Ve skute\u010dn\u00fdch souborech dat (UKHSA, CDC, Izrael) je pom\u011br typicky:<\/p>\n

10:1 a\u017e 20:1<\/strong><\/em>
\n(jedno \u00famrt\u00ed na 10\u201320 hospitalizac\u00ed)<\/em><\/p>\n

Pokud se to t\u00fdk\u00e1 hospitalizac\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00edch s vakc\u00ednou:<\/p>\n