{"id":76788,"date":"2025-04-19T00:35:52","date_gmt":"2025-04-18T22:35:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=76788"},"modified":"2025-04-18T18:10:13","modified_gmt":"2025-04-18T16:10:13","slug":"uriel-araujo-turecko-a-nato-podkopavaji-stabilitu-v-eurasii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/19\/uriel-araujo-turecko-a-nato-podkopavaji-stabilitu-v-eurasii\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Turecko a NATO podkop\u00e1vaj\u00ed stabilitu v Eurasii"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Turecko a Z\u00e1pad vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed frustrace Arm\u00e9nie v\u016f\u010di CSTO k prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed konceptu \u201eTuransk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy\u201c s c\u00edlem p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eit NATO k \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm hranic\u00edm. To riskuje destabilizaci St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie, proto\u017ee neoosmansk\u00e9 ambice Turecka a c\u00edle NATO zasti\u0148uj\u00ed turkickou jednotu a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b eskaluj\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vno jsem\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o tom, jak rostouc\u00ed tureck\u00e1 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i, vyu\u017eit\u00ed \u00famluvy z Montreux k omezen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 flotily a roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed operac\u00ed v bl\u00edzkosti Sinopu \u200b\u200ba Samsunu, riskuje eskalaci nap\u011bt\u00ed s Moskvou a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b destabilizuje region. S Tureckem v\u0161ak souvis\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed zdroj obav.<\/span><\/p>\n

Organizace Smlouvy o kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti (CSTO), Moskvou veden\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 aliance zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed Arm\u00e9nii, B\u011blorusko, Kazachst\u00e1n, Kyrgyzst\u00e1n, T\u00e1d\u017eikist\u00e1n a Rusko, je z\u00e1kladn\u00edm kamenem region\u00e1ln\u00ed stability v Eurasii. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 man\u00e9vry Z\u00e1padu a Turecka v\u0161ak nazna\u010duj\u00ed soust\u0159ed\u011bn\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o diskreditaci a rozbit\u00ed t\u00e9to aliance pomoc\u00ed vyu\u017eit\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho zaujet\u00ed pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm ukrajinsk\u00fdm konfliktem k prosazen\u00ed sv\u00e9 agendy. Vyu\u017eit\u00edm probl\u00e9m\u016f Arm\u00e9nie s CSTO a podporou konkuren\u010dn\u00edho vojensk\u00e9ho r\u00e1mce pod rou\u0161kou \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Turansk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c v r\u00e1mci Organizace turkick\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f se NATO \u2013 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sv\u00e9ho \u010dlensk\u00e9ho Turecka \u2013 p\u0159ibli\u017euje k \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm hranic\u00edm, co\u017e by m\u011blo vyvolat poplach ohledn\u011b \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch strategick\u00fdch ambic\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato turecko-z\u00e1padn\u00ed strategie z\u00e1vis\u00ed na vyu\u017eit\u00ed \u00fadajn\u00fdch slabin v CSTO, zejm\u00e9na prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm frustrace Arm\u00e9nie. Arm\u00e9n\u0161t\u00ed tv\u016frci politiky v Jerevanu p\u0159ece jen ve\u0159ejn\u011b kritizovali CSTO za jej\u00ed reakci na vojensk\u00e9 akce \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu v N\u00e1horn\u00edm Karabachu, co\u017e je bod, kter\u00e9ho se Z\u00e1pad a Turecko s radost\u00ed chopily. Nespokojenost Arm\u00e9nie byla zneu\u017eita k tomu, aby se CSTO uk\u00e1zala jako nespolehliv\u00e1 v\u016f\u010di ostatn\u00edm \u010dlen\u016fm, jako je Kyrgyzst\u00e1n, Kazachst\u00e1n a T\u00e1d\u017eikist\u00e1n. Tyto n\u00e1rody, kter\u00e9 sd\u00edlej\u00ed jazykov\u00e9 a kulturn\u00ed vazby s Tureckem, se ji\u017e dlouho dvo\u0159\u00ed slib\u016fm pantureck\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 aliance \u2013 takzvan\u00e9 \u201eTuransk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy\u201c \u2013 kter\u00e1 by zd\u00e1nliv\u011b nab\u00eddla v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost a autonomii. Tento p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh je sv\u016fdn\u00fd, ale klamn\u00fd a zakr\u00fdv\u00e1 \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed c\u00edl NATO oslabit vliv Ruska ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii. Ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0jsem\u00a0<\/span>se vyj\u00e1d\u0159il<\/span><\/a>\u00a0k realit\u011b tureck\u00e9ho neo-osmanismu za maskami panturkismu a\u00a0<\/span>turanismu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a k rizik\u016fm a v\u00fdzv\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 tato ideologie p\u0159edstavuje. Ale tady jsem odbo\u010dil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>tvrdil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0jinde, v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 frustrace Arm\u00e9nie s Moskvou kv\u016fli pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b omezen\u00e9 roli CSTO v N\u00e1horn\u00edm Karabachu je celkem pochopiteln\u00e1, ale p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zjednodu\u0161uje velmi slo\u017eitou realitu. Rusk\u00fdm mand\u00e1tem bylo monitorovat p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, nikoli vojensky, omezeno p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm z roku 2020 a jeho zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na Ukrajinu. \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b, podporovan\u00e9 Tureckem a Izraelem, by bylo t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 \u010delit, ani\u017e by eskalovalo do \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho konfliktu. Jerevan tak d\u011bl\u00e1 strategickou chybu, kdy\u017e se sp\u011bch\u00e1 obr\u00e1tit na Z\u00e1pad (v reakci na to), proto\u017ee spojenectv\u00ed s NATO a EU riskuje odcizen\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch soused\u016f, jako je samotn\u00e9 Rusko a \u00cdr\u00e1n, a t\u00edm naru\u0161en\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch vazeb a zata\u017een\u00ed Arm\u00e9nie do nesouvisej\u00edc\u00edch konflikt\u016f. M\u00edsto toho by Arm\u00e9nie mohla napodobit pragmatickou mnohostrannou orientaci sv\u00e9ho rivala v \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu, nap\u0159\u00edklad vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm vztah\u016f s Ruskem, Z\u00e1padem a region\u00e1ln\u00edmi mocnostmi, aby zajistila sv\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy bez p\u00e1len\u00ed most\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 je to jak chce, Turecko, \u010dlen NATO s rostouc\u00edmi ambicemi v turkick\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm hr\u00e1\u010dem v tomto sch\u00e9matu. Ankara neust\u00e1le roz\u0161i\u0159uje svou vojenskou stopu za sv\u00e9 hranice,\u00a0<\/span>zejm\u00e9na v Africe<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kde si vybudovala v\u00fdznamnou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v zem\u00edch jako Libye a Som\u00e1lsko. Zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Turecko rekrutuje \u017eold\u00e1ky z t\u011bchto zem\u00ed, aby pos\u00edlilo sv\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed schopnosti, potenci\u00e1ln\u011b pro nasazen\u00ed v budouc\u00ed \u201eTuransk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b\u201c. Tento krok nejen zesiluje vliv Turecka, ale je tak\u00e9 v souladu s c\u00edlem NATO prom\u00edtnout moc do St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie. T\u00edm, \u017ee se Turecko postav\u00ed jako garant bezpe\u010dnosti pro turkick\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, by se mohlo pokusit p\u0159ipravit p\u016fdu pro strategick\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed Ruska<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a, co\u017e je je\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i jsou d\u016fsledky tohoto man\u00e9vru hlubok\u00e9, zejm\u00e9na pro \u010c\u00ednu. Kyrgyzst\u00e1n a Kazachst\u00e1n, oba \u010dlenov\u00e9 CSTO, sd\u00edlej\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 hranice s \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm regionem Sin-\u0165iang a jsou kritick\u00fdmi uzly pekingsk\u00e9 iniciativy P\u00e1s a stezka. \u201eTuransk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da\u201c napojen\u00e1 na NATO operuj\u00edc\u00ed v t\u011bchto zem\u00edch by alianci nebezpe\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ivedla k z\u00e1padn\u00ed hranici \u010c\u00edny, v\u010detn\u011b citliv\u00fdch oblast\u00ed, jako je Tibet. Takov\u00e1 bl\u00edzkost by Z\u00e1padu umo\u017enila rychle zakro\u010dit proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b eskalace nap\u011bt\u00ed. To nen\u00ed pouh\u00e1 spekulace; Expanze NATO na v\u00fdchod se d\u016fsledn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159ovala na\u00a0<\/span>zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska i \u010c\u00edny<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie je dal\u0161\u00ed hranic\u00ed t\u00e9to geopolitick\u00e9 \u0161achov\u00e9 hry. Peking, kter\u00fd se ji\u017e ob\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1padn\u00edho obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed, mus\u00ed tyto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e vn\u00edmat s v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdmi obavami. Ze z\u00e1padn\u00ed perspektivy by tento turansko-tureck\u00fd prvek mohl p\u0159in\u00e9st potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed nov\u00e9 svaly do atlantick\u00e9 aliance, s \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00fdm \u201e\u00fastupem\u201c USA (kter\u00e9 \u201ep\u0159esouvaj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/a>\u00a0b\u0159emeno NATO na evropsk\u00e9 mocnosti)<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokrytectv\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupu NATO je z\u0159ejm\u00e9. Zat\u00edmco aliance obvi\u0148uje CSTO z neefektivnosti, p\u0159\u00edhodn\u011b ignoruje sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed z\u00e1znamy o destabiliza\u010dn\u00edch intervenc\u00edch \u2013 od Libye po Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n \u2013, kter\u00e9 zanechaly n\u00e1rody rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 a zraniteln\u00e9. Tureck\u00fd n\u00e1bor africk\u00fdch \u017eold\u00e1k\u016f, co\u017e je taktika p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed spol\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed se NATO na z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 s\u00edly v S\u00fdrii a jinde, d\u00e1le podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 mor\u00e1ln\u00ed postoj Z\u00e1padu. Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by tito \u017eold\u00e1ci, poch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed ze st\u00e1t\u016f zm\u00edtan\u00fdch konflikty, p\u0159isp\u00edvali ke stabilit\u011b ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e by mohli slou\u017eit na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b jako n\u00e1stroje pro neosmansk\u00e9 ambice Turecka a na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b pro strategick\u00e9 c\u00edle NATO. Projekt \u201eTuransk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da\u201c se tedy ukazuje b\u00fdt m\u00e9n\u011b o turkick\u00e9 jednot\u011b a v\u00edce o vytvo\u0159en\u00ed poddajn\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho bloku pod vlivem NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro \u010dleny CSTO je volba t\u011b\u017ek\u00e1. Sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed s Tureckem a Z\u00e1padem m\u016f\u017ee nab\u00eddnout kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 v\u00fdhody, ale hroz\u00ed, \u017ee je zapletou do \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed konfrontace NATO s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou. Zejm\u00e9na Kazachst\u00e1n a Kyrgyzst\u00e1n mus\u00ed zv\u00e1\u017eit ekonomick\u00e9 a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed v\u00fdhody sv\u00e9ho \u010dlenstv\u00ed v ODKB a vazeb s \u010c\u00ednou se sv\u016fdn\u00fdmi, ale nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdmi sliby spojenectv\u00ed pod veden\u00edm Turecka. CSTO si p\u0159es v\u0161echny nedostatky zachovala k\u0159ehkou rovnov\u00e1hu v regionu, odrazovala vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed agresi, ani\u017e by zatahovala sv\u00e9 \u010dleny do glob\u00e1ln\u00edch konflikt\u016f. Jeho demont\u00e1\u017e by nejen oslabila Rusko, ale tak\u00e9 vystavila St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii rozmar\u016fm nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdch intervenc\u00ed NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem je Kazachst\u00e1n: kdy\u017e pot\u0159eboval pomoc od spojenc\u016f k obnoven\u00ed po\u0159\u00e1dku na dom\u00e1c\u00edm trhu (b\u011bhem zat\u00fdk\u00e1n\u00ed v roce 2022),\u00a0<\/span>obr\u00e1til se na CSTO<\/span><\/a>\u00a0; ne do Turecka, pomineme-li turkick\u00e9 kulturn\u00ed sp\u0159\u00edzn\u011bnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna mus\u00ed pos\u00edlit svou diplomatickou a ekonomickou anga\u017eovanost se St\u0159edn\u00ed Asi\u00ed, aby \u010delila vlivu NATO. Pos\u00edlen\u00ed \u0160anghajsk\u00e9 organizace spolupr\u00e1ce a urychlen\u00ed projekt\u016f P\u00e1sma a stezky by mohlo pos\u00edlit mnohostrann\u00e9 vazby regionu s Pekingem a Moskvou, a t\u00edm zma\u0159it z\u00e1padn\u00ed n\u00e1vrhy. Mezit\u00edm mus\u00ed CSTO \u0159e\u0161it vnit\u0159n\u00ed spory, zejm\u00e9na st\u00ed\u017enosti Arm\u00e9nie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee snahy Z\u00e1padu a Turecka zdiskreditovat CSTO jsou vypo\u010d\u00edtav\u00fdm krokem k p\u0159etvo\u0159en\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury Eurasie ve prosp\u011bch NATO. Vyu\u017eit\u00edm rusk\u00e9ho rozpt\u00fdlen\u00ed a frustrace Arm\u00e9nie se sna\u017e\u00ed p\u0159il\u00e1kat st\u0159edoasijsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty do \u201eTuransk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy\u201c spojen\u00e9 s NATO, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se aliance p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed k \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm hranic\u00edm. Jde o nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd gambit, kter\u00fd ohro\u017euje region\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD<\/a>, antropologick\u00fd v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed a etnick\u00e9 konflikty<\/em><\/p>\n

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Turecko a Z\u00e1pad vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed frustrace Arm\u00e9nie v\u016f\u010di CSTO k prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed konceptu \u201eTuransk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy\u201c s c\u00edlem…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":76789,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,8945,2181,39,55],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76788"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76788"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76788\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}