{"id":76676,"date":"2025-04-18T00:22:10","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T22:22:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=76676"},"modified":"2025-04-17T14:26:25","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T12:26:25","slug":"jiri-paroubek-volebni-preference-politickych-stran-podle-kantar-a-ipsos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/18\/jiri-paroubek-volebni-preference-politickych-stran-podle-kantar-a-ipsos\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Volebn\u00ed preference politick\u00fdch stran podle Kantar a Ipsos"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Ob\u011b dv\u011b zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 agentury \u2013 Kantar a Ipsos \u2013 prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed pr\u016fzkumy ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b p\u0159esn\u011b. V sobotu ve\u010der v \u010cT zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fd pr\u016fzkum agentury Kantar a o n\u011bco pozd\u011bji zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fd pr\u016fzkum agentury Ipsos, p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed \u010derstv\u00e9 odhady moment\u00e1ln\u00edho, virtu\u00e1ln\u00edho volebn\u00edho v\u00fdsledku politick\u00fdch stran, pokud by se volby do sn\u011bmovny konaly v b\u0159eznu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee v pr\u016fzkumech v\u0161ech agentur se projevuje m\u00edrn\u00fd pokles v\u00a0preferenc\u00edch hnut\u00ed ANO. Up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b, p\u0159ed zhruba dv\u011bma lety jsem po prezidentsk\u00e9 volb\u011b, ve kter\u00e9 nebyl A. Babi\u0161 \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd, ale z\u00edskal p\u0159es \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a040 % hlas\u016f, p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal, \u017ee jak\u00fdmsi stropem volebn\u00edho v\u00fdsledku hnut\u00ed ANO je \u00farove\u0148 35 %. Ov\u0161em s\u00a0t\u00edm, jak se diferencuj\u00ed zj. nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed politick\u00e9 subjekty na politick\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u011b (Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b a Sta\u010dilo!), respektive jak se p\u0159eform\u00e1tov\u00e1v\u00e1 SPD, lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat jist\u00fd m\u00edrn\u00fd pokles preferenc\u00ed hnut\u00ed ANO ve prosp\u011bch t\u0159\u00ed zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch formac\u00ed. Tent\u00fd\u017e odliv m\u016f\u017ee nastat i v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, kdy bude ohl\u00e1\u0161ena kandidatura Soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokracie, pokud ta bude prov\u00e1d\u011bt aktivn\u00ed volebn\u00ed kampa\u0148 a bude udr\u017eovat strategickou iniciativu. V\u00a0\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u0161ak nejsou hlasy zj. pro SPD a Motoristy sob\u011b, respektive p\u0159eliv hlas\u016f k\u00a0t\u011bmto stran\u00e1m ztraceny ani pro stranu A. Babi\u0161e. Po volb\u00e1ch bude pot\u0159ebovat koali\u010dn\u00edho partnera \u010di partnery.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00e9 na pomysln\u00e9 p\u00e1sce volebn\u00edch stran se v pr\u016fzkumech objevuje podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed koalice Spolu s\u00a0podporou zhruba p\u011btiny voli\u010d\u016f.\u00a0 Za n\u00ed je s\u00a0odstupem hnut\u00ed STAN, v\u00a0jednom pr\u016fzkumu s\u00a012 % a v\u00a0druh\u00e9m s\u00a010,3 %.<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fzkum Kantaru pon\u011bkud marginalizuje pozici SPD (7 % preferenc\u00ed). Agentura Ipsos to vid\u00ed u SPD jinak: zhruba na jednu desetinu voli\u010d\u016f. Lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee SPD s\u00a0ohledem na p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed koalov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0jin\u00fdmi stranami, respektive s\u00a0ohledem na vstup p\u0159edstavitel\u016f n\u011bkolika men\u0161\u00edch politick\u00fdch stran na kandid\u00e1tn\u00ed listinu SPD, m\u016f\u017ee je\u0161t\u011b pos\u00edlit voli\u010dsk\u00fd potenci\u00e1l takto pos\u00edlen\u00e9 SPD.<\/p>\n

Oba dva pr\u016fzkumy d\u00e1vaj\u00ed slu\u0161nou \u0161anci na \u00fasp\u011bch ve volb\u00e1ch a p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed p\u011btiprocentn\u00ed hranice Motorist\u016fm sob\u011b. Ipsos jim sice d\u00e1v\u00e1 skromn\u00fdch 5 %, ale Kantar ji\u017e bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch 6,5 %.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed stranou, kter\u00e1 by podle obou agentur mohla proniknout do p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed sn\u011bmovny, je Pir\u00e1tsk\u00e1 strana s\u00a0volebn\u00edm odhadem kolem 6 %. V posledn\u00edch dvou \u010di t\u0159ech volb\u00e1ch ov\u0161em Pir\u00e1tsk\u00e1 strana nebyla p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1. A zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0krajsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch, kde byly podobn\u011b, jako budou ve volb\u00e1ch do sn\u011bmovny, pod\u00e1v\u00e1ny kandid\u00e1tky ve v\u0161ech 14 kraj\u00edch, osobn\u011b mnoho \u00fasp\u011bch\u016f Pir\u00e1tsk\u00e9 strany ve volb\u00e1ch neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m. Na posledn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b v\u00a0preferenc\u00edch a to jen u agentury Ipsos se je\u0161t\u011b objevila volebn\u00ed koalice Sta\u010dilo!, s velmi skromn\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem 5,1% preferenc\u00ed. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Sta\u010dilo! bude ztr\u00e1cet ve prosp\u011bch mnohem viditeln\u011bj\u0161\u00edho, aktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho a zaj\u00edmav\u00fdmi personami obda\u0159en\u00e9ho hnut\u00ed SPD. Tak\u00e9 Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b, i kdy\u017e tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee jsou pravicov\u00ed, mohou z\u00edskat \u0159adu protestn\u00edch hlas\u016f, pr\u00e1v\u011b na \u00fakor jin\u00fdch protestn\u00edch stran, v\u010detn\u011b Sta\u010dilo!. Dost z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, zda v\u00a0\u010dele kandid\u00e1tky Motorist\u016f sob\u011b bude F. Turek \u010di nikoliv. Pravicov\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i (nap\u0159. Honzejk v HN) se op\u00e1jej\u00ed vidinou toho, \u017ee ve volb\u00e1ch do sn\u011bmovny by mohlo doj\u00edt k\u00a0podobn\u00e9mu zvratu, k\u00a0jak\u00e9mu do\u0161lo v\u00a0Kanad\u011b. Tam je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed\u00a0 p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edci p\u0159ed vedli v\u00a0pr\u016fzkumech s\u00a0p\u0159ehledem protrumpov\u0161t\u00ed konzervativci a nakonec se situace v\u00a0pr\u016fzkumech zcela obr\u00e1tila ve prosp\u011bch\u00a0 do t\u00e9 doby neobl\u00edben\u00e9 Liber\u00e1ln\u00ed strany.<\/p>\n

Je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee vliv politiky prezidenta D. Trumpa na volby, respektive na volebn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky u n\u00e1s m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se n\u00e1m v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli m\u016f\u017ee zd\u00e1t. A pr\u00e1v\u011b to je faktor, o kter\u00e9m fantaz\u00edruj\u00ed pravicov\u00ed publicist\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Pokud ale dojde k\u00a0pr\u016flomu v jedn\u00e1n\u00edch mezi USA a Ruskem o m\u00edru na Ukrajin\u011b, bude to naopak znamenat jist\u00e9 body pro ty strany, kter\u00e9 o sob\u011b \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee maj\u00ed k\u00a0D. Trumpovi bl\u00edzko. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee zaveden\u00ed vysok\u00fdch cel na dovoz evropsk\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed do USA nebude ch\u00e1p\u00e1no naprostou v\u011bt\u0161inou \u010desk\u00e9\u00a0 spole\u010dnosti, jako p\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fd akt. Ve sv\u00fdch d\u016fsledc\u00edch bude znamenat negativn\u00ed dopad do tvorby HDP a tak\u00e9 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflaci. Tyto jevy se ov\u0161em v\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9m term\u00ednu voleb do nov\u00e9 \u010desk\u00e9 sn\u011bmovny je\u0161t\u011b\u00a0 p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 neprojev\u00ed. A tak jen z\u00e1zrak by mohl zachr\u00e1nit politick\u00e9 ambice \u010desk\u00e9 pravice ve volb\u00e1ch. Svou roli by mohlo sehr\u00e1t nap\u0159. to, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00a0men\u0161\u00edch protivl\u00e1dn\u00edch\u00a0 politick\u00fdch stran (Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b, Sta\u010dilo!) se do sn\u011bmovny nedostane, ale naopak se do n\u00ed dostane Pir\u00e1tsk\u00e1 strana. Ale jak po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1m, tak po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1m, z\u00a0b\u0159eznov\u00fdch \u010d\u00edsel pr\u016fzkumu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee \u010desk\u00e1 pravice, v\u010detn\u011b Pir\u00e1t\u016f by ve volb\u00e1ch do sn\u011bmovny z\u00edskala zhruba tolik hlas\u016f, jako samotn\u00e9 hnut\u00ed ANO. A k\u00a0vl\u00e1dnut\u00ed by tedy sta\u010dil A. Babi\u0161ovi jen jeden koali\u010dn\u00ed partner \u2013 tedy v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ne\u00fasp\u011bchu Motorist\u016f sob\u011b a Sta\u010dilo! \u2013 by to bylo hnut\u00ed SPD.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ob\u011b dv\u011b zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 agentury \u2013 Kantar a Ipsos \u2013 prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed pr\u016fzkumy ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b p\u0159esn\u011b….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":73854,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,122,620,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76676"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76676"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76676\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":76678,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76676\/revisions\/76678"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/73854"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76676"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76676"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76676"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}