{"id":76556,"date":"2025-04-17T00:14:55","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T22:14:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=76556"},"modified":"2025-04-16T13:00:16","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T11:00:16","slug":"obchodni-valka-mezi-usa-a-cinou-zacala-muze-se-stat-nasilnou-a-kdy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/17\/obchodni-valka-mezi-usa-a-cinou-zacala-muze-se-stat-nasilnou-a-kdy\/","title":{"rendered":"Obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou za\u010dala: M\u016f\u017ee se st\u00e1t n\u00e1silnou a kdy?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Daleko v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbou ne\u017e cla mezi Trumpem a \u010c\u00ednou je prudk\u00e1 eskalace sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se snadno m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit v n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho<\/span><\/h4>\n

Trump dnes pozastavil svou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lku se v\u0161emi zem\u011bmi krom\u011b \u010c\u00edny. To potvrzuje, \u017ee mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbou, kterou Trump\u016fv \u201eDen osvobozen\u00ed\u201c p\u0159edstavoval, byla ostr\u00e1 eskalace konfliktu mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou, kter\u00fd se nyn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch let zm\u011bnit v n\u00e1siln\u00e9, i kdy\u017e v\u0161echny o\u010di byly up\u0159eny na chaos na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ed Trumpov\u00fdm \u201eDnem osvobozen\u00ed\u201c m\u011bly ob\u011b zem\u011b nezdrav\u00fd vztah se st\u00e1le rostouc\u00edm tlakem na konflikt. Bidenova administrativa nejen\u017ee zachovala t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161echna antagonistick\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b prvn\u00ed Trumpovy administrativy, ale roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila a zintenzivnila je. P\u0159esto\u017ee nakonec obnovila diplomatick\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bny n\u00e1zor\u016f, kter\u00e9 prvn\u00ed Trumpova administrativa p\u0159eru\u0161ila, odm\u00edtla Biden spolupracovat s \u010c\u00ednou na zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed sil s nulov\u00fdm sou\u010dtem, kter\u00e9 proti sob\u011b stav\u00ed ob\u011b zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u00e1 Trumpova administrativa rychle zavedla drastick\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch ji\u017e tak vysok\u00fdch cel. P\u0159esto byly ob\u011b strany zpo\u010d\u00e1tku ochotny hledat dohodu, kter\u00e1 by mohla alespo\u0148 sn\u00ed\u017eit nap\u011bt\u00ed. Po volb\u00e1ch Peking vyslal do Washingtonu n\u011bkolik delegac\u00ed v nad\u011bji, \u017ee pochop\u00ed, o jak\u00e9 \u00fastupky Trump usiluje a jak zah\u00e1jit rozhovory. Neform\u00e1ln\u011b navrhla \u0159adu ot\u00e1zek, ve kter\u00fdch by mohla ustoupit, od ohodnocen\u00ed m\u011bn p\u0159es z\u00e1ruky \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edho postaven\u00ed dolaru a\u017e po pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 investice ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump ze sv\u00e9 strany chv\u00e1lil Si \u0164in-pchinga \u2013 \u201eje to \u00fa\u017easn\u00fd \u010dlov\u011bk\u201c \u2013 a opakovan\u011b nar\u00e1\u017eel na bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed setk\u00e1n\u00ed mezi nimi dv\u011bma. V \u00fanoru navrhl, aby Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, Rusko a \u010c\u00edna zah\u00e1jily rozhovory o kontrole jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by nakonec mohly v\u00e9st ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f v\u0161ech t\u0159\u00ed na polovinu. Jak jsem ned\u00e1vno tvrdil, Trump\u016fv sv\u011bton\u00e1zor a my\u0161len\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zdaleka nen\u00ed klamem nebo zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00edm, podpo\u0159ilo potenci\u00e1l pro takov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento potenci\u00e1l nyn\u00ed zmizel. M\u00edsto toho se USA a \u010c\u00edna pustily do spir\u00e1ly eskalace, kter\u00e1 by mohla v\u00e9st ke katastrof\u011b pro oba.<\/span><\/p>\n

V Den osvobozen\u00ed Trump ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee trestem za nekal\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010c\u00edny bude dodate\u010dn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel o 34 % nad st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br 42 %. S tak vysok\u00fdmi cly by na americk\u00e9m trhu bylo konkurenceschopn\u00fdch jen m\u00e1lo \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch v\u00fdrobk\u016f. Je\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee tento posledn\u00ed \u00fatok p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dil \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 v\u016fdce, \u017ee Trumpova administrativa prost\u011b nem\u00e1 z\u00e1jem o vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a m\u00edsto toho se sna\u017e\u00ed \u010c\u00ednu pon\u00ed\u017eit a zni\u010dit jej\u00ed ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na rozd\u00edl od sv\u00e9 omezen\u00e9 reakce na p\u0159edchoz\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel se \u010c\u00edna nyn\u00ed rozhodla vr\u00e1tit \u00fader. Ulo\u017eila 34% plo\u0161n\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel na americk\u00fd export, co\u017e ovlivnilo p\u0159\u00edjmy americk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161i 143,5 miliardy dolar\u016f. Krom\u011b toho byla zavedena nov\u00e1 omezen\u00ed v\u00fdvozu n\u011bkter\u00fdch strategicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch nerost\u016f, n\u011bkter\u00e9 americk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti byly za\u0159azeny na seznam nespolehliv\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed a bylo vyhl\u00e1\u0161eno antimonopoln\u00ed vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed proti spole\u010dnosti DuPont.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve sv\u00e9 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed odpov\u011bdi se \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da postavila do pozice obr\u00e1nce status quo globalizace. C\u00edl USA popsala jako \u201esvrhnout st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm cel, postavit z\u00e1jmy USA nad spole\u010dn\u00e9 dobro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho spole\u010denstv\u00ed a ob\u011btovat legitimn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed ve slu\u017eb\u00e1ch americk\u00fdch hegemonick\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vl\u00e1da se prezentovala jako klidn\u00e1 a d\u016fstojn\u00e1, ale tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 iracion\u00e1ln\u00edm a agresivn\u00edm Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm odhodlan\u00e1: „Neza\u010d\u00edn\u00e1me probl\u00e9my, ale ani se jich neboj\u00edme.“ Prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9 v People’s Daily ujistilo \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd lid o odolnosti ekonomiky a slibovalo rozs\u00e1hlou fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed podporu na pos\u00edlen\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vky a vl\u00e1dn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 podnik\u016fm pomohou p\u0159ekonat ot\u0159esy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump odpov\u011bd\u011bl se stejn\u00fdm odhodl\u00e1n\u00edm, ale ne se stejn\u00fdm klidem nebo d\u016fstojnost\u00ed, kdy\u017e napsal: \u201e\u010c\u00cdNA TO D\u011aLALA \u0160PATN\u011a, ZPADILILI JEDINOU VEC, CO SI NEMOHOU DOVOLIT!\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Pot\u00e9 zvolil jadernou variantu a ode dne\u0161ka zv\u00fd\u0161il cla na \u010c\u00ednu o dal\u0161\u00edch 50 %. \u010c\u00edna uvedla, \u017ee toto dal\u0161\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed z\u00edtra vyrovn\u00e1. Trump ve sv\u00e9 tir\u00e1d\u011b odkl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed Den osvobozen\u00ed pro ostatn\u00ed zem\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161il cla o dal\u0161\u00edch 21 %. Celkov\u011b Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty zv\u00fd\u0161ily cla o 125 % a \u010c\u00edna o 84 % od Trumpova n\u00e1stupu do \u00fa\u0159adu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V souladu s prezidentsk\u00fdm postem ve Washingtonu p\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1 n\u00e1zor, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 ekonomika je tak k\u0159ehk\u00e1, \u017ee nem\u00e1 na ekonomick\u00fd konflikt \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd vliv. Od\u0159\u00edznut\u00ed od americk\u00e9ho trhu, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 n\u00e1zor, \u010c\u00edna prost\u011b zaplav\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed exportn\u00ed trhy a odciz\u00ed si Evropu, Japonsko a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00e1 p\u0159ehnan\u00e1 sebed\u016fv\u011bra m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm chybn\u00fdm \u00fasudk\u016fm, proto\u017ee boj zes\u00edl\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna se toti\u017e od roku 2021 pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s pomal\u00fdm splasknut\u00edm sv\u00e9 obrovsk\u00e9 realitn\u00ed bubliny a nerovnom\u011brn\u00fdm p\u0159echodem k nov\u00e9 struktu\u0159e r\u016fstu, co\u017e vede k vysok\u00e9 nezam\u011bstnanosti mlad\u00fdch a p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm defla\u010dn\u00edm tlak\u016fm. Zem\u011b m\u00e1 obrovsk\u00fd obchodn\u00ed p\u0159ebytek, kter\u00fd je t\u0159eba sn\u00ed\u017eit.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed tv\u016frci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky v\u0161ak maj\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00fd prostor pro fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed stimuly ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vky, pokud se je rozhodnou vyu\u017e\u00edt. Zat\u00edm se toho zdr\u017eeli, proto\u017ee se sna\u017eili udr\u017eet tempo sv\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch reforem. Vzhledem k nal\u00e9havosti mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho konfliktu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b otev\u0159ou kohoutky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump na druhou stranu svou ekonomickou ofenz\u00edvu proti cel\u00e9mu sv\u011btu st\u00e1hl, ale neopustil ji. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee americk\u00e1 ekonomika a ekonomick\u00e9 vztahy s ostatn\u00edmi obchodn\u00edmi partnery \u010del\u00ed obdob\u00ed ochromuj\u00edc\u00ed nejistoty, kter\u00e1 by mohla zp\u016fsobit zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody. R\u016fst \u010c\u00edny by se mohl zrychlit, zat\u00edmco USA bojuj\u00ed s rostouc\u00ed inflac\u00ed a zpomalen\u00edm r\u016fstu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty americk\u00e9 a \u010c\u00edna jsou nyn\u00ed v konfrontaci. Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed silou, kter\u00e1 dosud zpomalila ekonomickou v\u00e1lku, bylo prost\u011b selh\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed k podkop\u00e1n\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 ekonomiky. Tuto situaci jsme nyn\u00ed nechali za sebou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak by te\u010f mohl konflikt pokra\u010dovat? Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem tvrd\u00e9ho odd\u011blen\u00ed mezi americkou a \u010d\u00ednskou ekonomikou je hrozn\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f. Mnoho spole\u010dnost\u00ed se jednodu\u0161e uzav\u0159e, ale tak\u00e9 se objev\u00ed velk\u00e9 pa\u0161er\u00e1ck\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b, proto\u017ee \u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed v\u00fdrobci usiluj\u00ed o p\u0159\u00edstup na americk\u00fd trh a ameri\u010dt\u00ed v\u00fdrobci hledaj\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 vstupy, kter\u00e9 jsou n\u00e1hle pry\u010d. \u010c\u00e1st \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 v\u00fdroby se p\u0159esouv\u00e1 do latinskoamerick\u00fdch zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 byly v den osvobozen\u00ed z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti u\u0161et\u0159eny.<\/span><\/p>\n

To p\u0159iprav\u00ed cestu pro dal\u0161\u00ed eskalaci. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se pokus\u00ed zastavit pa\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna se zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed na strategicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed, aby je odep\u0159ela americk\u00fdm v\u00fdrobc\u016fm. Ob\u011b strany se za\u010dnou spol\u00e9hat na to, \u017ee si t\u0159et\u00ed zem\u011b udr\u017e\u00ed sv\u016fj vliv, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vznikne mo\u017enost z\u00e1stupn\u00e9ho konfliktu. Nejznepokojiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee ob\u011b strany budou st\u00e1le v\u00edce v poku\u0161en\u00ed zp\u016fsobovat druh\u00e9 bolesti t\u00edm, \u017ee budou p\u0159\u00edmo \u00fato\u010dit na jejich citlivost na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna se obecn\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b reagovat na jakoukoli eskalaci ze strany Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. M\u00e1 tak\u00e9 siln\u00e9 pob\u00eddky, aby se vyhnula nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm reakc\u00edm, proto\u017ee se sna\u017e\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edt agresivn\u00ed americk\u00e9 akce proti jin\u00fdm zem\u00edm k pos\u00edlen\u00ed diplomatick\u00fdch vztah\u016f v regionu a s Evropou.<\/span><\/p>\n

To se o Trumpov\u011b administrativ\u011b \u0159\u00edci ned\u00e1. S\u00e1m Trump se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt fixov\u00e1n na vynucen\u00ed pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00e9mu se \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed nikdy nepod\u0159\u00edd\u00ed. Jak jeho frustrace nar\u016fst\u00e1 \u2013 a zejm\u00e9na jak se \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 ekonomika ukazuje jako odoln\u00e1 v\u016f\u010di jeho \u00fatok\u016fm \u2013 bude st\u00e1le vn\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed k t\u00fdmu n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti, kter\u00fd vybudoval. Na rozd\u00edl od jeho vlastn\u00edch instinkt\u016f jsou Trumpovi nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed a ekonomi\u010dt\u00ed poradci t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 bez v\u00fdjimky zam\u011b\u0159eni na konfrontaci s \u010c\u00ednou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1vy o obsahu prozat\u00edmn\u00edch strategick\u00fdch pokyn\u016f pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed obranu Pentagonu ukazuj\u00ed, jak snadno m\u016f\u017ee ekonomick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka p\u0159er\u016fst ve vojensk\u00fd konflikt. P\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 ministerstva obrany by mohli vyu\u017e\u00edt rozpadu americko-\u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch vztah\u016f k pos\u00edlen\u00ed vojensk\u00e9ho nahromad\u011bn\u00ed v Asii, co\u017e definovali jako \u201ehlavn\u00ed c\u00edl velk\u00e9 strategie USA\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00fd kurz byl destabilizuj\u00edc\u00ed ji\u017e v dob\u011b, kdy jej Bidenova administrativa prosazovala spolu s pokusy vytvo\u0159it z\u00e1bradl\u00ed k omezen\u00ed konflikt\u016f. S rostouc\u00ed ekonomickou bolest\u00ed na obou stran\u00e1ch a rostouc\u00edm nacionalismem v obou zem\u00edch, kter\u00fd se stal pro v\u016fdce svazuj\u00edc\u00ed silou, ob\u011b vl\u00e1dy pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zvol\u00ed destruktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed reakce na to, co pova\u017euj\u00ed za provokace z druh\u00e9 strany.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedin\u00fd chybn\u00fd krok kolem Tchaj-wanu nebo v Jiho\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i by mohl skon\u010dit katastrofou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jake Werner<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Daleko v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbou ne\u017e cla mezi Trumpem a \u010c\u00ednou je prudk\u00e1 eskalace sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":76292,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,3965,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76556"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76556\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}