{"id":76387,"date":"2025-04-15T00:14:55","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T22:14:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=76387"},"modified":"2025-04-14T12:18:26","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T10:18:26","slug":"obchodni-valky-je-snadne-prohrat-cina-ma-eskalacni-dominanci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/15\/obchodni-valky-je-snadne-prohrat-cina-ma-eskalacni-dominanci\/","title":{"rendered":"Obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky je snadn\u00e9 prohr\u00e1t \u2013 \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 eskala\u010dn\u00ed dominanci"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><span>Kdy\u017e americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump v roce 2018 tweetoval, \u017ee \u201eobchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky jsou dobr\u00e9 a snadno se vyhr\u00e1vaj\u00ed\u201c, zn\u011blo to jako provokativn\u00ed vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Nyn\u00ed \u2013 s cly na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd dovoz p\u0159es 100 procent \u2013 \u200b\u200bjeho vl\u00e1da op\u011bt eskaluje ekonomick\u00fd konflikt s \u010c\u00ednou. Ministr financ\u00ed Scott Bessent opat\u0159en\u00ed zd\u016fvodnil argumentem: &#8222;\u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 si hraj\u00ed s dvojkou. Vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00edme k nim mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e oni k n\u00e1m &#8211; maj\u00ed v\u00edce co ztratit.&#8220;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ale tato logika je nebezpe\u010dn\u011b chybn\u00e1. Ve skute\u010dnosti\u00a0m\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>\u010c\u00edna\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><strong><span>eskala\u010dn\u00ed dominanci<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0\u2013\u00a0schopnost eskalovat konflikt do bodu, kdy zp\u016fsob\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 \u0161kody sv\u00e9mu protivn\u00edkovi, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e z\u016fstane relativn\u011b nepo\u0161kozen\u00e1. Na druhou stranu USA se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed ekonomicky zraniteln\u00e9, proto\u017ee se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed z\u00e1visl\u00fdmi na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m dovozu, ani\u017e by vytvo\u0159ily alternativy.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>Trumpova iluze: V\u00edce dovoz\u016f = m\u00e9n\u011b rizika?<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Vl\u00e1da se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee obchodn\u00ed deficit USA s \u010c\u00ednou je v\u00fdhodou. Proto\u017ee v\u00edce dov\u00e1\u017e\u00edme, ne\u017e vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00edme, m\u00e1me m\u00e9n\u011b co ztratit. Obchodn\u00ed konflikty v\u0161ak nejsou hrou pokeru. Na rozd\u00edl od hry pokeru s nulov\u00fdm sou\u010dtem profituj\u00ed z obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed ob\u011b strany. Kdo m\u00e9n\u011b jedn\u00e1, \u0161kod\u00ed i s\u00e1m sob\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed je nejen levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u2013 je \u010dasto\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>nenahraditeln\u00e9<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0: od farmaceutick\u00fdch surovin po elektronick\u00e9 \u010dipy a vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 zeminy. Obchodn\u00ed bari\u00e9ry v USA vedou k\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>nedostatku dod\u00e1vek<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>inflaci<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0a ekonomick\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>stagnaci<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0. Byla to pr\u00e1v\u011b tato toxick\u00e1 sm\u011bs \u2013\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>stagflace<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0\u2013, kter\u00e1 charakterizovala 70. l\u00e9ta a obdob\u00ed pandemie.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>\u010c\u00edna se bez toho obejde \u2013 USA ne<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>\u010c\u00edna \u0161et\u0159\u00ed, investuje a m\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed odolnost v\u016f\u010di ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f. M\u016f\u017ee p\u0159esm\u011brovat export a z\u00e1rove\u0148 pos\u00edlit dom\u00e1c\u00ed spot\u0159ebu. Na druhou stranu USA\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>si \u017eij\u00ed nad pom\u011bry<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0, jsou zadlu\u017een\u00e9 a dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed kapit\u00e1l \u2013 co\u017e je \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l nejist\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, kdy\u017e vl\u00e1da jedn\u00e1 nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pokud nyn\u00ed USA naru\u0161\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce, ani\u017e by nejprve vyvinuly alternativy v\u00fdroby, ohroz\u00ed to jejich pr\u016fmyslovou z\u00e1kladnu a jejich d\u016fv\u011bru jako obchodn\u00edho m\u00edsta. Investice klesaj\u00ed, \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby rostou \u2013 a nakonec je to vlastn\u00ed c\u00edl.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd pl\u00e1n, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 podpora, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>USA rozpout\u00e1vaj\u00ed jakousi\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>ekonomickou vietnamskou v\u00e1lku<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0\u2013 katastrofu, kterou si sami zp\u016fsobili s nejasnou strategi\u00ed a p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdm ne\u00fasp\u011bchem. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost trp\u00ed a d\u016fv\u011bra v americkou spolehlivost kles\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>I kdy\u017e je Trumpova eskalace zam\u00fd\u0161lena pouze jako prost\u0159edek n\u00e1tlaku, podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 c\u00edl: proto\u017ee partner\u016fm a investor\u016fm signalizuje, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>jakoukoli dohodu lze kdykoli odvolat<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0\u2013 no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fra ka\u017ed\u00e9ho seri\u00f3zn\u00edho vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span>Z\u00e1v\u011br: USA blufuj\u00ed \u2013 a prohr\u00e1vaj\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Bez vlastn\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f, bez pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, bez konzistence hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed USA pod Trumpem politiku eskalace s vysok\u00fdm rizikem pro n\u011b samotn\u00e9. Cena bude vysok\u00e1 \u2013 nejen ekonomicky, ale i geopoliticky. Proto\u017ee ti, kdo se z\u0159eknou discipl\u00edny a strategick\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed, prohraj\u00ed nejen obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lku, ale ztrat\u00ed i budoucnost.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>Adam S. Posen Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/united-states\/trade-wars-are-easy-lose\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kdy\u017e americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump v roce 2018 tweetoval, \u017ee \u201eobchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky jsou dobr\u00e9 a&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":25362,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,3965,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76387"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76387"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76387\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25362"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}