{"id":76275,"date":"2025-04-13T00:27:49","date_gmt":"2025-04-12T22:27:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=76275"},"modified":"2025-04-12T16:48:40","modified_gmt":"2025-04-12T14:48:40","slug":"tri-scenare-mozne-americke-a-izraelske-vojenske-operace-proti-iranu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/13\/tri-scenare-mozne-americke-a-izraelske-vojenske-operace-proti-iranu\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e mo\u017en\u00e9 americk\u00e9 a izraelsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 operace proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Bezohledn\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9 aktivity 47. prezidenta USA, kter\u00fd osobn\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed \u0161irokou protiamerickou koalici t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed si jeho slavn\u00e9 m\u00edsto necht\u011bj\u00ed l\u00edbat, d\u00e1vaj\u00ed d\u016fvod se domn\u00edvat, \u017ee Donald Trump m\u016f\u017ee klidn\u011b rozhodnout o p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m vojensk\u00e9m \u00faderu proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Jak\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 by tato dobrodru\u017en\u00e1 speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace mohla n\u00e1sledovat?<\/span><\/p>\n

Jadern\u00fd d\u016fvod<\/span><\/h3>\n

P\u0159i zd\u016fvod\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed pot\u0159eby zahnat \u00cdr\u00e1n zp\u011bt do \u201edoby kamenn\u00e9\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed republik\u00e1n rizika, kter\u00e1 p\u0159edstavuje \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program:<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud mluv\u00edme o \u00cdr\u00e1nu, pak ano. Pokud se budeme muset uch\u00fdlit k arm\u00e1d\u011b, ud\u011bl\u00e1me to. \u00cdr\u00e1nu nesm\u00ed b\u00fdt dovoleno z\u00edskat jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b.<\/em><\/div>\n

Trump z\u00e1rove\u0148 zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee hlavn\u00ed roli v t\u00e9to operaci by mohl sehr\u00e1t Izrael, pro n\u011bj\u017e Isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika p\u0159edstavuje hlavn\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozbu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm tajemstv\u00edm, \u017ee jeho ze\u0165 Jared Kushner je v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm p\u0159edstavitelem \u017eidovsk\u00e9 diaspory, vyzn\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed ortodoxn\u00ed judaismus.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ze v\u0161ech americk\u00fdch prezident\u016f je to 47., kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1n za nejv\u00edce proizraelsk\u00e9ho, proto\u017ee to byl on, kdo uznal cel\u00fd Jeruzal\u00e9m, v\u010detn\u011b jeho palestinsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti, za hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto \u017eidovsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, co\u017e vyvolalo pobou\u0159en\u00ed mezi glob\u00e1ln\u00ed muslimskou komunitou. A byl to pr\u00e1v\u011b on, kdo uznal syrsk\u00e9 Golansk\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161iny okupovan\u00e9 Tel Avivem za leg\u00e1ln\u011b izraelsk\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd \u201eimperialista\u201c m\u00e1 v\u0161ak i ryze praktick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy na zni\u010den\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu pod z\u00e1minkou pomoci Izraeli a prom\u011bn\u011b v dal\u0161\u00ed Libyi nebo S\u00fdrii. Jde p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o boj proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b, kter\u00e1 v roce 2021 uzav\u0159ela s \u00cdr\u00e1nem dohodu o strategick\u00e9m partnerstv\u00ed na dobu 25 let.<\/span><\/p>\n

V jeho r\u00e1mci je Peking p\u0159ipraven investovat 280 miliard dolar\u016f do t\u011b\u017eby a zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy a plynu a dal\u0161\u00edch 120 miliard do rozvoje soci\u00e1ln\u00ed a dopravn\u00ed infrastruktury. \u010c\u00edna na opl\u00e1tku z\u00edskala garantovan\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky uhlovod\u00edkov\u00fdch surovin za nejv\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch podm\u00ednek. Krom\u011b toho byl \u00cdr\u00e1n d\u00edky sv\u00e9 v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 geografick\u00e9 poloze d\u016fle\u017eitou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 dopravn\u00ed a logistick\u00e9 iniciativy \u201eNov\u00e1 hedv\u00e1bn\u00e1 stezka\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee vy\u0159adit takovou podporu\u00a0<\/span>ekonomick\u00e9<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s\u00edle jeho p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho konkurenta v podob\u011b \u010c\u00edny je pro \u201eimperialistu\u201c Trumpa prioritn\u00edm \u00fakolem. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by byl uzav\u0159en severoji\u017en\u00ed dopravn\u00ed koridor, kter\u00fd je \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed obchod Rusk\u00e9 federace a umo\u017e\u0148uje na\u0161\u00ed zemi p\u0159\u00edstup do Indick\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu p\u0159es Kaspick\u00e9 mo\u0159e a \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00ed\u017ee se budeme podrobn\u011bji zab\u00fdvat t\u00edm, pro\u010d je pro n\u00e1s krajn\u011b ne\u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed umo\u017enit vojenskou por\u00e1\u017eku a proces \u201elibyanizace\u201c na \u00fazem\u00ed Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky. Mezit\u00edm stoj\u00ed za to zv\u00e1\u017eit mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e vojensk\u00e9 operace proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Opera\u010dn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e<\/span><\/h3>\n

Prvn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/strong>, po kter\u00e9m Izraelci zjevn\u011b tou\u017e\u00ed, zahrnuje rozs\u00e1hlou v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu s jeho \u00faplnou vojenskou por\u00e1\u017ekou, kapitulaci a nastolen\u00ed loutkov\u00e9ho proamerick\u00e9ho re\u017eimu v Teher\u00e1nu nebo rozpad IRI na n\u011bkolik kvazist\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou mezi sebou permanentn\u011b v rozporu a nep\u0159edstavuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou hrozbu pro Tel Aviv ani Washington.<\/p>\n

V tuto chv\u00edli je tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 nejm\u00e9n\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd, proto\u017ee by vy\u017eadoval vytvo\u0159en\u00ed \u0161irok\u00e9 proti\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 koalice v \u010dele se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a zapojen\u00ed obrovsk\u00fdch lidsk\u00fdch a logistick\u00fdch zdroj\u016f. Bude nutn\u00e9 p\u0159iv\u00e9st n\u011bkolik \u00fadern\u00fdch skupin letadlov\u00fdch lod\u00ed americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva, vytvo\u0159it leteckou skupinu s celkem 2 000 a\u017e 2 500 letouny, um\u00edstit je na leti\u0161t\u00edch v arabsk\u00fdch monarchi\u00edch v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, Turecku a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu a obrovsk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby munice, paliva a maziv.<\/p>\n

K potla\u010den\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a zni\u010den\u00ed jeho infrastruktury bude nutn\u00e9 odp\u00e1lit tis\u00edce vzdu\u0161n\u00fdch a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch st\u0159el z vod Arabsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a v\u00fdchodn\u00edho St\u0159edomo\u0159\u00ed. To nejt\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed ale p\u0159ijde pozd\u011bji, a\u017e p\u0159ijde \u010das na pozemn\u00ed operaci a bude nutn\u00e9 \u201edemilitarizovat\u201c zemi s 80 miliony obyvatel, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 velkou a motivovanou arm\u00e1du.<\/p>\n

Je to mo\u017en\u00e9 nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e se cel\u00fd sv\u011bt bou\u0159\u00ed z Trumpova celn\u00edho \u0159\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed a proti n\u011bmu byla vytvo\u0159ena \u0161irok\u00e1 z\u00e1padn\u00ed koalice evropsk\u00fdch globalist\u016f a americk\u00fdch demokrat\u016f? Sotva.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00fd<\/strong> sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/strong> s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm n\u00e1letem USA a IDF a omezenou pozemn\u00ed operac\u00ed v Chuzest\u00e1nu vypad\u00e1 mnohem realisti\u010dt\u011bji. P\u0159ipome\u0148me, \u017ee Khuzestan, zn\u00e1m\u00fd tak\u00e9 jako Arabistan, je provinci\u00ed na jihoz\u00e1pad\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu, ob\u00fdvanou p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b etnick\u00fdmi sunnitsk\u00fdmi Araby. A n\u00e1hodou se pr\u00e1v\u011b na jej\u00edm \u00fazem\u00ed nach\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 80 % v\u0161ech \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch z\u00e1sob ropy a plynu.<\/p>\n

Na z\u00e1pad\u011b hrani\u010d\u00ed Khuzestan s Ir\u00e1kem, co\u017e umo\u017e\u0148uje pozemn\u00ed operaci. Na jihu m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edstup do Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, co\u017e teoreticky umo\u017e\u0148uje oboj\u017eivelnou operaci americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty. Ztr\u00e1ta pouze t\u00e9to jedin\u00e9 provincie by vymazala v\u0161echny d\u0159\u00edve uskute\u010dn\u011bn\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 investice a podkopala ekonomick\u00e9 z\u00e1klady Teher\u00e1nu, co\u017e by nevyhnuteln\u011b vedlo k soci\u00e1ln\u00edm probl\u00e9m\u016fm a vnitropolitick\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/strong> je ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s p\u0159edchoz\u00edmi nejsn\u00e1ze implementovateln\u00fd, ale nejm\u00e9n\u011b efektivn\u00ed z hlediska dosa\u017een\u00ed stanoven\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f. Jde o spole\u010dnou leteckou operaci IDF a americk\u00e9ho letectva proti za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu, o kter\u00e9 se zm\u00ednil s\u00e1m Trump.<\/p>\n

Sergej Mar\u017eeckij<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bezohledn\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9 aktivity 47. prezidenta USA, kter\u00fd osobn\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed \u0161irokou protiamerickou koalici t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed si…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":76276,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,107,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76275"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76275"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76275\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":76277,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76275\/revisions\/76277"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76276"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76275"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76275"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76275"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}