{"id":76077,"date":"2025-04-10T00:08:48","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T22:08:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=76077"},"modified":"2025-04-09T19:16:23","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T17:16:23","slug":"presilova-hra-turecka-v-cernem-mori-stretnou-se-erdoganovy-namorni-ambice-s-ruskem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/10\/presilova-hra-turecka-v-cernem-mori-stretnou-se-erdoganovy-namorni-ambice-s-ruskem\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u0159esilov\u00e1 hra Turecka v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i: st\u0159etnou se Erdoganovy n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed ambice s Ruskem?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost Turecka v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i, vyu\u017eit\u00ed \u00famluvy z Montreux k omezen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 flotily a z\u00e1rove\u0148 roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed operac\u00ed ve strategick\u00fdch oblastech, signalizuje Erdoganovu ambici ovl\u00e1dnout region. Uprost\u0159ed neosmansk\u00fdch aspirac\u00ed a ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu to riskuje eskalaci nap\u011bt\u00ed s Ruskem a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b destabilizuje nestabiln\u00ed region.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd prezident Vladmir Putin a jeho tureck\u00fd prot\u011bj\u0161ek Tayyip Erdogan\u00a0spolu ned\u00e1vno telefonovali a diskutovali o obnoven\u00ed\u00a0iniciativy\u00a0<\/a>Black Sea Grain Initiative<\/a>\u00a0(BSGI). Tato dohoda, p\u016fvodn\u011b zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e1 v roce 2022 Tureckem a OSN, p\u0159edt\u00edm umo\u017enila bezpe\u010dn\u00fd export t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 33 milion\u016f metrick\u00fdch tun ukrajinsk\u00e9ho obil\u00ed navzdory pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmu konfliktu, dokud se Rusko v roce 2023 nest\u00e1hlo s od\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00edm p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eek pro vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdvoz potravin a hnojiv.<\/p>\n

Erdogan b\u011bhem hovoru zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch lodn\u00edch tras by mohlo podpo\u0159it m\u00edrov\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed s Ukrajinou, a Turecko nab\u00eddlo, \u017ee k takov\u00e9mu \u00fasil\u00ed p\u0159isp\u011bje. Diskuse se tak\u00e9 dotkla \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce, v\u010detn\u011b spolupr\u00e1ce v S\u00fdrii, s c\u00edlem omezit sekt\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 n\u00e1sil\u00ed a dos\u00e1hnout stability. Dalo by se \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee turecko-rusk\u00e9 bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed vztahy jsou celkov\u011b dobr\u00e9, ale navzdory tureck\u00fdm snah\u00e1m o zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed a vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed je zde dostatek prostoru pro nap\u011bt\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco Moskva bojuje na Ukrajin\u011b, Ankara ve skute\u010dnosti vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed vlny v samotn\u00e9m \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i a Erdoganovo rafinovan\u00e9 uchv\u00e1cen\u00ed moci by ve skute\u010dnosti mohlo vyvolat nov\u00fd konflikt \u2013 nebo alespo\u0148 donutit Moskvu mrknout.<\/p>\n

Ankara ve skute\u010dnosti roz\u0161i\u0159uje svou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost a vliv na lodn\u00ed trasy, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se potenci\u00e1ln\u011b dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do st\u0159etu se z\u00e1jmy Moskvy t\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159ekra\u010duje napjatou linii v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i a z\u00e1rove\u0148 vyva\u017euje z\u00e1vazky NATO sv\u00fdmi vlastn\u00edmi ambicemi. N\u011bkdo si m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee po\u010d\u00ednaje rokem 2022 Turecko na z\u00e1klad\u011b\u00a0\u00famluvy z Montreux<\/a>\u00a0z roku 1936 omezilo schopnost Ruska pos\u00edlit svou \u010dernomo\u0159skou flotilu (p\u0159es Bospor a Dardanely), zat\u00edmco Erdogan ve skute\u010dnosti posiluje vlastn\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed hl\u00eddky ve vod\u00e1ch pobl\u00ed\u017e Samsunu a Sinopu.<\/p>\n

V\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dohoda z roku 1936 d\u00e1v\u00e1 Turecku pravomoc nad t\u011bmito vodn\u00edmi cestami a umo\u017e\u0148uje mu regulovat n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravu, zejm\u00e9na b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky. Stalo se to, \u017ee Turecko (i kdy\u017e hr\u00e1lo kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli p\u0159i zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed BSGI) ve skute\u010dnosti prosadilo omezen\u00ed na vojensk\u00e1 plavidla, \u010d\u00edm\u017e fakticky\u00a0blokovalo<\/a>\u00a0Moskvu v pos\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch lod\u00ed do \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, co\u017e m\u011blo dopad na jej\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed operace v regionu.<\/p>\n

Je v tom h\u00e1\u010dek, toti\u017e \u017ee ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed aktivity Turecka jsou siln\u011b spjaty s jeho samotn\u00fdm prosazov\u00e1n\u00edm \u00famluvy z Montreux a jeho rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost\u00ed uprost\u0159ed rusk\u00e9ho z\u00e1jmu o Ukrajinu. Od roku 2022 Turecko pokra\u010duje v nap\u00edn\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch sil, zejm\u00e9na kolem Bosporu a severn\u00edho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e pobl\u00ed\u017e sv\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch b\u0159eh\u016f.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad ve vod\u00e1ch pobl\u00ed\u017e Sinop a Samsun (dva tureck\u00e9 \u010dernomo\u0159sk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy) Ankara posiluje n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed operace a infrastrukturu. Sinop byl historicky n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edm centrem (b\u011bhem ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, jako byla bitva u Sinopu \u200b\u200bv roce 1853), a ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee zde doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9mu nasazen\u00ed za \u00fa\u010delem sledov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch tras a z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed kontroly nad z\u00e1padn\u00edm \u010cern\u00fdm mo\u0159em. Samsun je mezit\u00edm logistick\u00fdm centrem podporuj\u00edc\u00edm tureckou pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed str\u00e1\u017e a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed operace. Tyto oblasti jsou kritick\u00e9, proto\u017ee le\u017e\u00ed pod\u00e9l n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch tras, na kter\u00e9 se Rusko spol\u00e9h\u00e1 p\u0159i v\u00fdvozu obil\u00ed a vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 trasy, kter\u00e9 by Turecko mohlo ovlivnit nebo se dokonce pokusit naru\u0161it.<\/p>\n

Tureck\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo nav\u00edc minim\u00e1ln\u011b od roku 2009\u00a0pl\u00e1novalo<\/a>\u00a0z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v \u010dernomo\u0159sk\u00e9m m\u011bst\u011b Trabzon na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e. Z\u00e1m\u011brem je vytvo\u0159it z\u00e1kladnu logistick\u00e9 podpory pro fregaty, ponorky a rychl\u00e1 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e1 plavidla a stavba \u00fadajn\u011b za\u010dala po ozn\u00e1men\u00edch na konci roku 2018, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e tureck\u00e1 m\u00e9dia\u00a0tehdy projekt\u00a0povzbuzovala .<\/a><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee byrokratick\u00e9 procesy zdr\u017eely nebo odlo\u017eily pokrok, a\u010dkoli existuj\u00ed protich\u016fdn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy o tom, projekt st\u00e1le pokra\u010duje. A\u0165 je to jak chce, tureck\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo m\u00e1 ve v\u00fdstavb\u011b\u00a031 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch lod\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0, zat\u00edmco Erdoganovo Turecko prosazuje svou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed doktr\u00ednu \u201e\u00a0Modr\u00e1 vlast<\/a>\u00a0\u201c (Mavi Vatan), jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem je roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it tureckou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed kontrolu nad obrovsk\u00fdmi oblastmi \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, v\u00fdchodn\u00edho St\u0159edomo\u0159\u00ed a Egejsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e.<\/p>\n

Je pravda, \u017ee Turecko, i kdy\u017e je samo \u010dlenem NATO, historicky odolalo v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnosti NATO v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i, jak je vid\u011bt z prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed tureck\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f. V roce 2023 nap\u0159\u00edklad velitel tureck\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch sil, admir\u00e1l Erc\u00fcment Tatl\u0131o\u011flu, \u00fadajn\u011b\u00a0prohl\u00e1sil<\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee Turecko by mohlo zajistit \u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e samo, a tud\u00ed\u017e si tam nep\u0159eje p\u0159\u00edtomnost USA nebo NATO, a znovu zd\u016fraznil dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00famluvy z Montreux a p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed zabr\u00e1nit tomu, aby se \u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e stalo oblast\u00ed konflikt\u016f, jako je Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod.<\/p>\n

To by mohlo nazna\u010dovat, \u017ee Ankara se zam\u011b\u0159uje pouze na udr\u017een\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed kontroly a stability; dal\u0161\u00ed kroky Turecka, jako je podpora Ukrajiny korvetami a zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed obchod\u016f s obil\u00edm, v\u0161ak nazna\u010duj\u00ed strategii vyu\u017eit\u00ed jeho pozice k dal\u0161\u00edmu pos\u00edlen\u00ed vlivu a region\u00e1ln\u00ed stability. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici nav\u00edc do\u0161li k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee Turecko se ve skute\u010dnosti sna\u017e\u00ed st\u00e1t se tamn\u00ed p\u0159edn\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed mocnost\u00ed. Takov\u00e9 ambice maj\u00ed jist\u011b potenci\u00e1l destabilizovat region\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hu sil.<\/p>\n

Experti jako Alper Co\u015fkun (kter\u00fd slou\u017e\u00ed jako vedouc\u00ed pracovn\u00edk evropsk\u00e9ho programu v Carnegie Endowment for International Peace se s\u00eddlem ve Washingtonu, DC) popsali Turecko jako \u201estr\u00e1\u017ece br\u00e1ny \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e\u201c. Co\u015fkun tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Ankara by se ve skute\u010dnosti mohla vyno\u0159it jako dominantn\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed mocnost v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i, vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00ed svou kontrolu nad Bosporsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem a\u00a0vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed \u00famluvy z Montreux<\/a>\u00a0k omezen\u00ed tranzitu vojensk\u00fdch lod\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Koncem roku 2024 a za\u010d\u00e1tkem roku 2025 se\u00a0expanze tureck\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva<\/a>\u00a0stala zjevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, kdy\u017e Ankara zes\u00edlila svou kontrolu na z\u00e1padn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Rusko z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 zapleteno do Ukrajiny, Erdoganova diskr\u00e9tn\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 expanze \u2013 zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 na strategick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy jako Sinop a Samsun \u2013 signalizuje ambici prosadit kontrolu a zd\u00e1nliv\u011b z\u00e1m\u011br u\u0161krtit \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 moskevsk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed cesty.<\/p>\n

Abych to shrnul, vyu\u017eit\u00edm Montreuxsk\u00e9 \u00famluvy k omezen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 \u010dernomo\u0159sk\u00e9 flotily p\u0159i zachov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnosti \u2013 o \u010dem\u017e sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed aktivity jako v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 hry a operace odminov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 se Turecko zjevn\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed postavit se jako dominantn\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed mocnost v regionu, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e rusk\u00e1 flotila z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 zapletena do ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu.<\/p>\n

Tento posun v kombinaci s tureck\u00fdmi \u201eneo-osmansk\u00fdmi\u201c aspiracemi za Erdogana (o tom jsem\u00a0psal<\/a>\u00a0d\u0159\u00edve), kter\u00e9 zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed znovuz\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed historick\u00e9ho vlivu v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i i mimo n\u011bj, riskuje eskalaci nap\u011bt\u00ed s Ruskem, historick\u00fdm n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edm hr\u00e1\u010dem, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 v regionu strategick\u00e9 a dokonce existen\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy.<\/p>\n

Navzdory balancov\u00e1n\u00ed a diplomatick\u00fdm snah\u00e1m Ankary (\u00a0komentoval<\/a>\u00a0jsem , jak i tureck\u00e9 \u201esbli\u017eovac\u00ed\u201c kroky v posledn\u00edch letech mohou b\u00fdt \u010dasto o\u0161idn\u00e9), proto\u017ee tureck\u00e9 kroky ve skute\u010dnosti ohro\u017euj\u00ed strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy Ruska, roste potenci\u00e1l pro chybn\u00e9 odhady nebo p\u0159\u00edmou konfrontaci, co\u017e hroz\u00ed za\u017eehnut\u00edm \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed v ji\u017e tak nestabiln\u00ed oblasti.<\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD<\/a>, antropologick\u00fd v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed a etnick\u00e9 konflikty<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost Turecka v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i, vyu\u017eit\u00ed \u00famluvy z Montreux k omezen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 flotily…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":76078,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,628,56,55],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76077"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76077"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76077\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76078"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76077"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76077"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76077"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}