{"id":76074,"date":"2025-04-10T00:09:18","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T22:09:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=76074"},"modified":"2025-04-09T19:12:57","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T17:12:57","slug":"andrew-korybko-co-prijde-po-stazeni-usa-z-polskeho-logistickeho-centra-rzeszow-pro-ukrajinu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/10\/andrew-korybko-co-prijde-po-stazeni-usa-z-polskeho-logistickeho-centra-rzeszow-pro-ukrajinu\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Co p\u0159ijde po sta\u017een\u00ed USA z polsk\u00e9ho logistick\u00e9ho centra Rzeszow pro Ukrajinu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

To m\u00e1 symbolizovat sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 pomoci Kyjevu, ne fungovat jako prvn\u00ed krok k \u00fapln\u00e9mu sta\u017een\u00ed z Polska nebo st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy jako celku.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pentagon v pond\u011bl\u00ed\u00a0ozn\u00e1mil\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee americk\u00e9 s\u00edly se st\u00e1hnou z polsk\u00e9ho logistick\u00e9ho centra Rzeszow pro Ukrajinu a p\u0159em\u00edst\u00ed se jinde v zemi podle (dosud nezve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9ho) pl\u00e1nu. Den pot\u00e9 n\u00e1sledovala zpr\u00e1va\u00a0NBC News\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee Trump by mohl brzy st\u00e1hnout polovinu z 20 000 americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, kter\u00e9 Biden poslal do st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy (CEE) od roku 2022. Podle jejich zdroj\u016f bude v\u011bt\u0161ina sta\u017eena z Polska a Rumunska, dvou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle NATO.<\/p>\n

Polsk\u00fd\u00a0prezident\u00a0<\/a>,\u00a0premi\u00e9r\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0ministr obrany\u00a0<\/a>rychle tvrdili, \u017ee pond\u011bln\u00ed p\u0159em\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed nep\u0159edstavuje ani nep\u0159edznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 sta\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch sil z Polska, ale st\u00e1le se spekuluje o Trumpov\u00fdch pl\u00e1nech s ohledem na\u00a0rod\u00edc\u00ed se\u00a0<\/a>rusko\u00a0<\/a>–\u00a0americk\u00e9\u00a0<\/a>\u201e\u00a0Nov\u00e9\u00a0<\/a>uvoln\u011bn\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>\u201c. Putin koncem roku 2021 po\u017e\u00e1dal USA, aby st\u00e1hly sv\u00e9 s\u00edly ze st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy, aby Washington znovu dodr\u017eoval Zakl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed akt NATO-Rusko z roku 1997, jeho\u017e mnoh\u00e1 poru\u0161en\u00ed zhor\u0161ila rusko-americk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed dilema.<\/p>\n

Bidenovo odm\u00edtnut\u00ed o tom diskutovat pomohlo u\u010dinit posledn\u00ed f\u00e1zi\u00a0nyn\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e deset let trvaj\u00edc\u00edho\u00a0<\/a>ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu\u00a0<\/a>nevyhnutelnou t\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dilo Putina, \u017ee to, co bude brzy zn\u00e1m\u00e9 jako\u00a0speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>operace\u00a0<\/a>, je jedin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jak obnovit st\u00e1le v\u00edce naru\u0161enou strategickou rovnov\u00e1hu mezi Ruskem a USA. Na rozd\u00edl od Bidena se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Trump je otev\u0159en\u00fd alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9mu vyhov\u011bn\u00ed Putinov\u011b \u017e\u00e1dosti, kter\u00e1 by se mohla st\u00e1t jedn\u00edm z n\u011bkolika pragmatick\u00fdch vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdch kompromis\u016f, o kter\u00fdch jednaj\u00ed, aby normalizovali vazby a ukon\u010dili z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lku.<\/p>\n

Koncem \u00fanora bylo vyhodnoceno, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0Trump pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nest\u00e1hne v\u0161echny americk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky ze st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy nebo opust\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek 5 NATO\u00a0<\/a>\u201c, ale n\u011bkter\u00e9 z nich odtamtud pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b st\u00e1hne k p\u0159esunu do Asie, aby svalnat\u011bji zadr\u017eel \u010c\u00ednu jako sou\u010d\u00e1st pl\u00e1novan\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodn\u00edho st\u0159edu sv\u00e9 administrativy. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b je v Polsku\u00a0asi 10 000 americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f\u00a0<\/a>, oproti\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 4 500\u00a0<\/a>p\u0159ed speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operac\u00ed, tak\u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed by mohli b\u00fdt hypoteticky zkr\u00e1ceni, ale p\u0159esto by s Polskem ode\u0161li v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u0159ed rokem 2022.<\/p>\n

Polsk\u00fd odch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed konzervativn\u00ed prezident chce co nejv\u00edce americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b\u00a0p\u0159esunu n\u011bkter\u00fdch z N\u011bmecka\u00a0<\/a>, zat\u00edmco jeho \u00fa\u0159aduj\u00edc\u00ed liber\u00e1ln\u00ed premi\u00e9r\u00a0flirtuje s mo\u017enost\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>bu\u010f spol\u00e9hat na Francii, \u017ee vyrovn\u00e1 USA, nebo se rovnou p\u0159iklonit k prvn\u00edmu. V\u00fdsledek prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc bude hr\u00e1t obrovskou roli p\u0159i ur\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed polsk\u00e9 politiky v tomto ohledu a mohl by b\u00fdt ovlivn\u011bn vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00edm (p\u0159esn\u00fdm \u010di nepravdiv\u00fdm) Ameriky opou\u0161t\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed Polsko.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00e9koli omezen\u00ed americk\u00fdch jednotek v Polsku nebo p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti, \u017ee je to nevyhnuteln\u00e9, by mohlo hr\u00e1t ve prosp\u011bch proevropsk\u00e9ho liber\u00e1ln\u00edho kandid\u00e1ta, zat\u00edmco v\u00fdslovn\u00e9 potvrzen\u00ed z\u00e1vazku USA zachovat \u2013 nato\u017e roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it \u2013 st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 by mohlo pomoci t\u011bm proamerick\u00fdm konzervativn\u00edm a populistick\u00fdm. I kdyby byl p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed polsk\u00fd prezident liber\u00e1l, USA by se zem\u00ed mohly st\u00e1le po\u010d\u00edtat jako se svou\u00a0region\u00e1ln\u00ed ba\u0161tou vojensk\u00e9ho a politick\u00e9ho vlivu,\u00a0<\/a>pokud Trumpova administrativa zahraje sv\u00e9 karty.<\/p>\n

Aby se tak stalo, musely by tam USA ponechat v\u00edce voj\u00e1k\u016f, ne\u017e m\u011bly p\u0159ed rokem 2022, i kdy\u017e budou n\u011bkter\u00e9 sta\u017eeny, zajistit, aby tato \u00farove\u0148 z\u016fstala nad \u00farovn\u00ed kter\u00e9koli jin\u00e9 zem\u011b st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy, a p\u0159ev\u00e9st n\u011bkter\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 technologie pro spole\u010dnou v\u00fdrobu. Prvn\u00ed imperativ by psychologicky ujistil politicky rusofobn\u00ed populaci, \u017ee nebudou opu\u0161t\u011bni, druh\u00fd se t\u00fdk\u00e1 jejich\u00a0region\u00e1ln\u00ed presti\u017ee\u00a0<\/a>a t\u0159et\u00ed by udr\u017eela st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropu v r\u00e1mci vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho ekosyst\u00e9mu USA\u00a0uprost\u0159ed konkurence EU\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

To by mohlo sta\u010dit k tomu, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdm pl\u00e1n\u016fm liber\u00e1l\u016f nato\u010dit se sm\u011brem k Francii na \u00fakor vlivu USA nebo k udr\u017een\u00ed p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed pozice USA v Polsku, pokud liber\u00e1ln\u00ed prezident spolupracuje se sv\u00fdm podobn\u011b sm\u00fd\u0161lej\u00edc\u00edm premi\u00e9rem a spolehne se na Francii, \u017ee USA trochu vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed. I kdy\u017e Trumpova administrativa promarn\u00ed tuto p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost kv\u016fli nedostatku vize nebo se pln\u011b liber\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1da v Polsku pust\u00ed do boj\u016f s USA z ideologick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f, neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee by USA Polsko \u00fapln\u011b zavrhly.<\/p>\n

Drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina polsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 techniky je americk\u00e1, co\u017e p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm povede k pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed dod\u00e1vce n\u00e1hradn\u00edch d\u00edl\u016f a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b polo\u017e\u00ed z\u00e1klad pro\u00a0je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce obchod\u016f se zbran\u011bmi\u00a0<\/a>. Americk\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou tak\u00e9 v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b um\u00edst\u011bny v\u00a0t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 tuctu za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>po cel\u00e9 zemi a poradensk\u00e1 role, kterou n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed hraj\u00ed, pom\u00e1h\u00e1 utv\u00e1\u0159et v\u00fdhled, strategie a taktiku Polska b\u011bhem jeho pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edho budov\u00e1n\u00ed arm\u00e1dy. Neexistuje tedy \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd d\u016fvod, pro\u010d by se USA dobrovoln\u011b vzdaly takov\u00e9ho vlivu na to, co je nyn\u00ed\u00a0t\u0159et\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1dou NATO\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jako takov\u00fd by nejradik\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 plnohodnotn\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bliber\u00e1ln\u011b veden\u00e9ho polsk\u00e9ho pivota sm\u011brem k Francii byl omezen nepraktickost\u00ed nahrazen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b francouzsk\u00fdm, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e nejd\u00e1le by to mohlo b\u00fdt hostov\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00fdch st\u00edha\u010dek Rafale. Polsko by tak\u00e9 mohlo do zem\u011b pozvat n\u011bkter\u00e9 francouzsk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky, mimo jin\u00e9 pro \u00fa\u010dely poradenstv\u00ed, a mo\u017en\u00e1 by dokonce podepsalo n\u011bkolik obchod\u016f se zbran\u011bmi. Nebude v\u0161ak \u017e\u00e1dat americk\u00e9 s\u00edly, aby ode\u0161ly, proto\u017ee chce zachovat jejich tripwire potenci\u00e1l.<\/p>\n

S p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k souh\u0159e t\u011bchto z\u00e1jm\u016f lze doj\u00edt k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee sta\u017een\u00ed USA z polsk\u00e9ho logistick\u00e9ho za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v Rzeszowa pro Ukrajinu m\u00e1 symbolizovat omezen\u00ed americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 pomoci Kyjevu, nikoli fungovat jako prvn\u00ed krok k \u00fapln\u00e9mu sta\u017een\u00ed z Polska nebo st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy jako celku. Zat\u00edmco n\u011bkter\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed redukce americk\u00fdch jednotek jsou mo\u017en\u00e9 jako jeden z n\u011bkolika pragmatick\u00fdch kompromis\u016f, na kter\u00fdch by se Trump mohl dohodnout s Putinem pro normalizaci vazeb a ukon\u010den\u00ed z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, \u00fapln\u00e9 sta\u017een\u00ed se neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

To m\u00e1 symbolizovat sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 pomoci Kyjevu, ne fungovat jako prvn\u00ed krok k \u00fapln\u00e9mu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":76075,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[898,1042,31,1737],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76074"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76074"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76074\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":76076,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76074\/revisions\/76076"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76075"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76074"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76074"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76074"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}