{"id":75989,"date":"2025-04-09T00:30:16","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T22:30:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=75989"},"modified":"2025-04-08T17:53:10","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T15:53:10","slug":"zbynek-fiala-kdyz-ruska-hrozba-pominula","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/09\/zbynek-fiala-kdyz-ruska-hrozba-pominula\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Kdy\u017e rusk\u00e1 hrozba pominula"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

V\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b byla posledn\u00edm h\u0159eb\u00edkem do rakve studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Uk\u00e1zala meze rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 moci, a to Washington p\u0159inutilo p\u0159ehodnotit pot\u0159ebu br\u00e1nit Evropu tlakem na Rusko, p\u00ed\u0161e George Friedman ke geopolitice Trumpov\u00fdch cel.<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u0161ichni mluv\u00ed o tom, \u017ee s\u00a0Trumpem p\u0159i\u0161la z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bna, ale ka\u017ed\u00fd ji definuje jinak. Spousta koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f se soust\u0159e\u010fuje na to, co se d\u011bje na kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, ale to se t\u00fdk\u00e1 jen n\u011bkoho a sleduje to kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd z\u00e1jem. V\u00fdmluvn\u011b to popsal Bloomberg, kdy\u017e uvedl, \u017ee americk\u00e1 investi\u010dn\u00ed t\u0159\u00edda, tedy ti, kdo vlastn\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161echny akcie, p\u0159edstavuje jen horn\u00edch 10 procent spole\u010dnosti. A to jsou ti, kdo nyn\u00ed zji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed, \u017ee jejich postaven\u00ed bude v\u00a0\u00e9\u0159e Trumpa oslabeno.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-04-06\/trump-tariff-chart-how-stock-market-crash-hits-wall-street-investors\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

Trhy l\u00e9taj\u00ed jak na houpa\u010dce, v\u00a0pond\u011bl\u00ed se d\u00e1valy trochu dohromady, tak\u017ee \u0161irok\u00fd index S&P 500 se vr\u00e1til na pouh\u00fdch 1,2 procenta pod nulu. Ale v\u00a0p\u00e1tek se jednu chv\u00edli mluvilo o ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch akciov\u00e9ho trhu na \u00farovni 5 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f. Celkov\u00fd HDP Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f je 29 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f, tak\u017ee p\u011btina se vypa\u0159ila na z\u00e1klad\u011b jedin\u00e9ho vystoupen\u00ed prezidenta Donalda Trumpa v\u00a0R\u016f\u017eov\u00e9 zahrad\u011b B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu.<\/p>\n

Vypa\u0159ila? N\u011bkdo akcie prod\u00e1v\u00e1, jin\u00fd kupuje. Z\u00e1jemc\u016f o prodej je v\u00edc, proto cena kles\u00e1. Kupovali jen ti, kdo si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee panika odezn\u00ed, ceny se vr\u00e1t\u00ed a 5 bilion\u016f spadne z\u00a0nebe.<\/p>\n

Osudy spekulant\u016f v\u0161ak nejsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9. Kdybych m\u011bl p\u0159idat sv\u016fj pohled na prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed ud\u00e1losti, vid\u00edm pokus st\u00e1tu zvr\u00e1tit nepom\u011br sil, kter\u00fdm zat\u00edm disponovaly nadn\u00e1rodn\u00ed korporace a finan\u010dn\u00ed kapit\u00e1l. St\u00e1t na clech vyd\u011bl\u00e1 to, co se neodv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed z\u00edskat zdan\u011bn\u00edm. Mo\u017en\u00e1 to ani nejde, poh\u00e1dkov\u011b placen\u00ed da\u0148ov\u00ed poradci v\u017edycky na n\u011bco p\u0159ijdou. Cla jsou spolehliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Celnici nakonec vyberou tolik, \u017ee dan\u011b mohou j\u00edt dokonce dol\u016f.<\/p>\n

Ale i ten boj o obnovu st\u00e1tn\u00ed moci je jen vedlej\u0161\u00ed epizoda. Americk\u00fd politolog a prognostik Georg Friedman na sv\u00e9m presti\u017en\u00edm port\u00e1lu Geopolitical Futures zasazuje Trump\u016fv p\u0159evrat do historick\u00e9ho kontextu.<\/p>\n

Jak p\u00ed\u0161e, \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm bodem americk\u00e9 strategie studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky bylo vytvo\u0159en\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, z n\u011bho\u017e m\u011bl Washington prosp\u011bch na \u00fakor Moskvy. \u0160lo o to, aby v Evrop\u011b ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00fdhody spojenectv\u00ed s USA p\u0159eva\u017eovaly nad v\u00fdhodami spojenectv\u00ed se Sov\u011bty. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 proto nab\u00eddli p\u0159\u00edstup na sv\u016fj trh spojenc\u016fm jako formu ekonomick\u00e9 motivace, kterou si mohli d\u00edky sv\u00e9mu bohatstv\u00ed dovolit.<\/p>\n

Voln\u00fd obchod –\u00a0\u00a0aspo\u0148 jako princip, kdy\u017e u\u017e ne v\u017edy jako realita – byl tedy hlavn\u00ed zbran\u00ed ve studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, kter\u00e1 pomohla obnovit z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropu a oslabit Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz.<\/p>\n

Zvl\u00e1\u0161tnost\u00ed historie je, \u017ee studen\u00e1 v\u00e1lka dok\u00e1zala p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt i p\u00e1d Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu, do jeho\u017e kab\u00e1tu bylo potom navle\u010deno Rusko. Byla to iluze, jej\u00ed\u017e pr\u00e1zdnotu uk\u00e1zala v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b. Ta nasv\u00edtila limity rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 moci. Najednou je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee USA u\u017e nemus\u00ed udr\u017eovat n\u00e1kladn\u00fd syst\u00e9m obrany Evropy. Na to by m\u011bli Evropan\u00e9 sta\u010dit sami, pokud je to tla\u010d\u00ed. Americk\u00fd boj u\u017e to nen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Na Ameri\u010dany v\u0161ak tla\u010d\u00ed slabiny voln\u00e9ho obchodu, kdy dobr\u00fd sluha se zm\u011bnil ve zl\u00e9ho p\u00e1na. Podle Friedmana USA zji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed, \u017ee kdy\u017e je voln\u00fd obchod extr\u00e9mn\u00ed, rizika p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017e\u00ed nad p\u0159\u00ednosy. Samotn\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00ed rozm\u011br m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pro zemi pozitivn\u00ed nebo negativn\u00ed, ale nejde jen o pen\u00edze, jde i o dostupnost vyr\u00e1b\u011bn\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed, a ta z\u00e1vis\u00ed nejen na v\u00fdhod\u00e1ch pro vyv\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed zem\u011b, ale tak\u00e9 na geopolitick\u00fdch ambic\u00edch (a stabilit\u011b) t\u011bchto zem\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Friedman nab\u00edz\u00ed hypotetick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad. Kdy\u017e se t\u0159eba \u010c\u00edna rozhodne, \u017ee m\u00e1vne rukou nad ekonomick\u00fdmi v\u00fdhodami v\u00fdvozu do Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a d\u00e1 p\u0159ednost politick\u00fdm nebo vojensk\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm, tak prost\u011b v\u00fdvoz p\u0159eru\u0161\u00ed, aby partnera oslabila. To je riziko. Je to riziko z\u00e1vislosti na ciz\u00ed v\u00fdrob\u011b, kter\u00e9 je umocn\u011bno t\u00edm, \u017ee i ta vlastn\u00ed se p\u0159esouv\u00e1 do sv\u011bta za lacinou prac\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fdhodami.<\/p>\n

A je tu dal\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m. Lacin\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed z\u00a0dovozu je bezvadn\u00e1 v\u011bc pro spot\u0159ebitele, ale pokud vytla\u010d\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00fdrobu, vznik\u00e1 probl\u00e9m s\u00a0obchodn\u00edmi schodky. Ten v\u00a0USA \u010dinil jen loni t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 bilion dolar\u016f. Za jedin\u00fd rok. To je neudr\u017eiteln\u00e9. Je to dal\u0161\u00ed doklad p\u0159e\u017eilosti takov\u00e9ho syt\u00e9mu. Mus\u00ed se obnovit podm\u00ednky pro n\u00e1vrat v\u00fdroby dom\u016f.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledek Trumpov\u00fdch po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edch krok\u016f p\u0159i p\u0159echodu na z\u00e1sadn\u011b jin\u00fd syst\u00e9m obchodu je zat\u00edm nejasn\u00fd, ale jejich z\u00e1m\u011br je z\u0159ejm\u00fd, vysv\u011btluje Friedman. Je zcela nevyhnuteln\u00e9 opustit syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd se stal zcela p\u0159e\u017eil\u00fdm, proto\u017ee byl budov\u00e1n proti zcela jin\u00e9 moci, ne\u017e kterou dnes p\u0159edstavuje oslaben\u00e9 Rusko. Na to nebylo t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 p\u0159ij\u00edt, ale nen\u00ed snadn\u00e9 to ud\u011blat.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/geopoliticalfutures.com\/the-geopolitics-of-tariffs\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Friedman uzav\u00edr\u00e1 svou \u00favahu my\u0161lenkou, \u017ee sv\u011bt najednou ztratil kotvu a je t\u0159eba mu nab\u00eddnout jinou. To u\u017e ale jde za hranice Trumpovy strategie. Pokud t\u00edm nemysl\u00ed n\u00e1vrat k\u00a0ekonomick\u00e9 suverenit\u011b. Ta bude d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 i pro zem\u011b, jako je \u010cesko. K\u00a0takov\u00e9mu c\u00edli by se mohly p\u0159esunout kapacity, kter\u00e9 p\u0159i exportu narazily do zdi.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b byla posledn\u00edm h\u0159eb\u00edkem do rakve studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Uk\u00e1zala meze rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":70930,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,59,22,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75989"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75989"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75989\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/70930"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75989"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75989"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75989"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}