{"id":75933,"date":"2025-04-09T00:11:53","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T22:11:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=75933"},"modified":"2025-04-08T14:44:38","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T12:44:38","slug":"andrew-korybko-nemecka-litevska-zakladna-komplikuje-velkou-rusko-americkou-dohodu-o-evropske-bezpecnosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/09\/andrew-korybko-nemecka-litevska-zakladna-komplikuje-velkou-rusko-americkou-dohodu-o-evropske-bezpecnosti\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: N\u011bmeck\u00e1 litevsk\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna komplikuje velkou rusko-americkou dohodu o evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Bez n\u011bmeck\u00e9 dohody nyn\u00ed nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd n\u00e1vrat k Zakl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edmu aktu NATO-Rusko z roku 1997.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>N\u011bmecko\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rt.com\/russia\/615122-germany-activates-brigade-lithuania\/\">pr\u00e1v\u011b otev\u0159elo\u00a0<\/a>svou prvn\u00ed st\u00e1lou vojenskou z\u00e1kladnu v zahrani\u010d\u00ed od druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/france-germany-and-poland-are-competing\">uprost\u0159ed sout\u011b\u017ee\u00a0<\/a>o veden\u00ed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/thealtworld.com\/andrew_korybko\/heres-what-i-learned-from-analyzing-the-new-cold-war-every-day-for-three-years-straight\">postkonfliktn\u00ed Evropy\u00a0<\/a>mezi sebou, Franci\u00ed a Polskem. Nach\u00e1z\u00ed se v jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Litv\u011b pobl\u00ed\u017e b\u011blorusk\u00fdch hranic a v bl\u00edzkosti rusk\u00e9 Kaliningradsk\u00e9 oblasti a m\u00e1 strategickou pozici, aby N\u011bmecku dodalo obrovsk\u00fd vliv na utv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed budouc\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury Evropy. Je to proto, \u017ee N\u011bmecko je nyn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edkem bezpe\u010dnosti ve st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b (CEE).<\/p>\n<p>Tento v\u00fdvoj podporuje n\u011bkolik souvisej\u00edc\u00edch strategick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f. Pro za\u010d\u00e1tek to p\u0159edstavuje v\u00fdzvu pro snahy Polska prezentovat se jako nejspolehliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00fd spojenec pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee N\u011bmecko m\u00e1 nyn\u00ed z\u00e1kladnu v jedn\u00e9 z t\u011bchto zem\u00ed, p\u0159esn\u011b v t\u00e9, kter\u00e1 Polsko spojuje s dal\u0161\u00edmi dv\u011bma. Na toto t\u00e9ma se N\u011bmecko a Polsko dohodly na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed \u201e\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2024\/03\/04\/europe-military-autonomy-nato-schengen\/\">vojensk\u00e9ho Schengenu\u00a0<\/a>\u201c po\u010d\u00e1tkem roku 2024 pro usnadn\u011bn\u00ed pohybu jednotek a vybaven\u00ed, co\u017e N\u011bmecku usnadn\u00ed z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed jeho litevsk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny.<\/p>\n<p>Tento pakt by tedy mohl b\u00fdt roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en tak, aby zahrnoval Loty\u0161sko a Estonsko, zejm\u00e9na pot\u00e9, co Evropsk\u00fd parlament\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/the-european-parliament-confirmed\">potvrdil \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed postaven\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>\u201ePobaltsk\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 linie\u201c ve strategii v\u00fdchodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti bloku. N\u011bmeck\u00e1 litevsk\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna by se proto mohla spojit s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/03\/23\/europe\/germany-military-investment-intl\/index.html\">p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm pos\u00edlen\u00edm\u00a0<\/a>a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fdm \u201evojensk\u00fdm Schengenem\u201c, co\u017e povede k tomu, \u017ee N\u011bmecko bude siln\u011bji sout\u011b\u017eit s Polskem o vliv v Pobalt\u00ed. To by pak mohlo v\u00e9st k tomu, \u017ee N\u011bmecko pod\u0159\u00edd\u00ed Polsko a stane se dominantn\u00edm vojensk\u00fdm hr\u00e1\u010dem ve st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-75935 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/koridor-suwalski-300x152.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"702\" height=\"356\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/koridor-suwalski-300x152.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/koridor-suwalski.jpg 697w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 702px) 100vw, 702px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Nov\u011b otev\u0159en\u00e1 n\u011bmeck\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna v Litv\u011b nep\u0159edstavuje v\u00fdzvu jen pro polsk\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy, i kdy\u017e to Var\u0161ava otev\u0159en\u011b nep\u0159izn\u00e1 a n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 by mo\u017en\u00e1 dokonce podpo\u0159ili d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed roli pro Berl\u00edn, ale i pro z\u00e1jmy Ruska. Jak\u00e1koli hypotetick\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 akce proti Litv\u011b, nap\u0159\u00edklad ta, kter\u00e1 by mohla nastat, kdyby se Moskva pokusila vytesat takzvan\u00fd \u201ekoridor Suwalki\u201c z B\u011bloruska do Kaliningradu, by mohla poslou\u017eit de facto v\u016fdci EU jako p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eka k tomu, aby se vojensky zapojil do krize.<\/p>\n<p>Jist\u011b, Rusko nesignalizovalo \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u00famysl v\u00e9st bleskovou v\u00e1lka p\u0159es Polsko nebo mnohem slab\u0161\u00ed Litvu na cest\u011b do sv\u00e9 baltsk\u00e9 exkl\u00e1vy, ani nikdo p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u011b nevysv\u011btlil, pro\u010d by tak u\u010dinilo navzdory tomuto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, kter\u00fd t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b povede ke kontinent\u00e1ln\u00edmu konfliktu a mo\u017en\u00e1 i ke t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, pokud do toho vstoup\u00ed USA. P\u0159esto st\u00e1le d\u011bs\u00ed Evropany, a tak ovliv\u0148uje, jak formuluj\u00ed svou p\u0159\u00edmou politiku v N\u011bmecku, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee nyn\u00ed formuluj\u00ed svou p\u0159\u00edmou roli v boji s N\u011bmeckem. reagovat na toto.<\/p>\n<p>A kone\u010dn\u011b, dva p\u0159edchoz\u00ed c\u00edle, \u017ee N\u011bmecko bude siln\u011bji soupe\u0159it s Polskem o vliv v Pobalt\u00ed a m\u00edt v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed slovo v nouzov\u00e9m pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed \u201eSuwalki Corridor\u201c, maj\u00ed zajistit, \u017ee bude zahrnuto do jak\u00e9koli rusko-americk\u00e9 dohody o budouc\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektu\u0159e Evropy. Putin\u016fv po\u017eadavek z konce roku 2021, aby se USA vr\u00e1tily k Zakl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edmu aktu NATO-Rusko z roku 1997 sta\u017een\u00edm z\u00e1padn\u00edch jednotek a vojensk\u00e9 infrastruktury ze zem\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00e9 Var\u0161avsk\u00e9 smlouvy, nyn\u00ed nelze splnit bez N\u011bmecka.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00fdchodn\u00ed nasazen\u00ed v\u0161ech ostatn\u00edch \u010dlen\u016f\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/cn\/natohq\/topics_136388.htm#:~:text=NATO%E2%80%99s%20forward%20presence%20comprises,fully%20combat%2Dcapable%20formations.\">je rota\u010dn\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>, i kdy\u017e funguj\u00ed jako trval\u00e9, p\u0159esto jsou tyto dva ofici\u00e1ln\u011b trval\u00e9, co\u017e je jin\u00fd pr\u00e1vn\u00ed status, kter\u00fd Rusko pova\u017euje za v\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. To automaticky neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee N\u011bmecko bude zahrnuto do rusko-americk\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f, dokonce ani do funkce zastupovat EU, ale jen to, \u017ee Berl\u00edn nyn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee slou\u017eit jako v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eka ne\u017e kdokoli jin\u00fd k tomu, aby mohli uzav\u0159\u00edt velkou dohodu o evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti bez p\u0159isp\u011bn\u00ed kohokoli jin\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/germanys-lithuanian-base-could-complicate\">Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-22017\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andrew-korybko-300x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"202\" height=\"202\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andrew-korybko-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andrew-korybko-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andrew-korybko.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 202px) 100vw, 202px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bez n\u011bmeck\u00e9 dohody nyn\u00ed nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd n\u00e1vrat k Zakl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edmu aktu NATO-Rusko z roku 1997. N\u011bmecko\u00a0pr\u00e1v\u011b&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":75934,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,208,84,1737],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75933"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75933"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75933\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":75936,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75933\/revisions\/75936"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75934"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75933"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}