{"id":75902,"date":"2025-04-08T05:30:31","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T03:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=75902"},"modified":"2025-04-08T05:30:31","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T03:30:31","slug":"uriel-araujo-trumpovy-bombove-utoky-v-jemenu-nebezpecny-krok-k-valce-s-iranem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/08\/uriel-araujo-trumpovy-bombove-utoky-v-jemenu-nebezpecny-krok-k-valce-s-iranem\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Trumpovy bombov\u00e9 \u00fatoky v Jemenu – nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd krok k v\u00e1lce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Izrael i obrann\u00fd sektor budou t\u011b\u017eit z dal\u0161\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f v Jemenu, probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee by to mohly b\u00fdt nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 kroky k dal\u0161\u00ed eskalaci s nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdmi v\u00fdsledky \u2013 a t\u011bch jsme minim\u00e1ln\u011b od roku 2022 vid\u011bli dost.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tolik se toho te\u010f p\u00ed\u0161e o Trumpov\u011b \u00faderu na sv\u011btov\u00e9 akciov\u00e9 trhy (p\u0159es cla), ale Washington, Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod a sv\u011bt jako celek pron\u00e1sleduje je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed stra\u0161idlo. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 vlna americk\u00fdch n\u00e1let\u016f na Jemen, kterou na\u0159\u00eddil prezident Donald Trump, ve skute\u010dnosti znamen\u00e1 nebezpe\u010dnou eskalaci na ji\u017e tak nestabiln\u00edm Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto bombov\u00e9 \u00fatoky , kter\u00e9 jsou zd\u00e1nliv\u011b zam\u011b\u0159eny na omezen\u00ed \u00fatok\u016f rebel\u016f Houthi podporovan\u00fdch \u00cdr\u00e1nem\u00a0<\/span>na lodn\u00ed dopravu v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, jsou op\u011bt \u0159\u00edzeny neochv\u011bjnou v\u011brnost\u00ed Washingtonu Izraeli (jsou tak\u00e9 k\u00fdvnut\u00edm na obrann\u00fd pr\u016fmysl \u2013 o tom pozd\u011bji). Tento vojensk\u00fd p\u0159esah, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 daleko k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed m\u00edru nebo ochran\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00edho obchodu, riskuje, \u017ee zat\u00e1hne Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty do katastrofick\u00e9 v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, konfliktu, kter\u00fd by neslou\u017eil \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu americk\u00e9mu z\u00e1jmu, ale pot\u011b\u0161il by v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 jest\u0159\u00e1by v Tel Avivu i Washingtonu \u2013 plus americk\u00fd obrann\u00fd sektor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee Trumpova p\u0159edvolebn\u00ed r\u00e9torika vyh\u00fdb\u00e1n\u00ed se ba\u017ein\u00e1m na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 vypa\u0159ila a nahradila ji jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed tlak, kter\u00fd zrazuje jeho sliby zdr\u017eenlivosti. N\u00e1lety v Jemenu, kter\u00e9 pat\u0159\u00ed k nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm za posledn\u00ed roky, odhaluj\u00ed administrativu tou\u017e\u00edc\u00ed po vojensk\u00e9 akci. Za prv\u00e9,\u00a0<\/span>unikl\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy Signal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0odhalily viceprezidenta JD Vance a vysok\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky oslavuj\u00edc\u00ed st\u00e1vky s mraziv\u00fdm nad\u0161en\u00edm \u2013 Vance pronesl \u201emodlitbu za v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c, kdy\u017e padaly bomby, zat\u00edmco jin\u00ed j\u00e1sali emotikony p\u011bst\u00ed, vlajek a ohn\u011b a libovali si ze smrti Houthi\u016f. Toto nadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed, spojen\u00e9 s Trumpov\u00fdmi hrozbami v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu, ukazuje bezohledn\u00fd sm\u011br ke konfrontaci, daleko od neanga\u017eovanosti, kterou kdysi prosazoval.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nic z toho nen\u00ed nutn\u011b efektivn\u00ed, z americk\u00e9ho pohledu. John Mearsheimer (americk\u00fd politolog a profesor Chicagsk\u00e9 univerzity) v rozhovoru s novin\u00e1\u0159em Glennem Greenwaldem\u00a0<\/span>prohl\u00e1sil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee \u201eTrump je m\u016f\u017ee [Houthis] od t\u00e9to chv\u00edle bombardovat, dokud nep\u0159ijde kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed, a kone\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek bude stejn\u00fd: H\u00fas\u00edov\u00e9 z\u016fstanou st\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tady ve skute\u010dnosti nejde o lodn\u00ed trasy \u2013 jak Vance skv\u011ble\u00a0<\/span>\u0159\u00edk\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v jedn\u00e9 z unikl\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v (na adresu ministra obrany Peta Hegsetha a poradce pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost Michaela Waltze, kter\u00fd argumentoval pro st\u00e1vky): \u201e3 procenta americk\u00e9ho obchodu prob\u00edhaj\u00ed p\u0159es Suez. 40 procent evropsk\u00e9ho obchodu ano. (…) pokud si mysl\u00edte, \u017ee bychom to m\u011bli ud\u011blat, poj\u010fme znovu. Jen nen\u00e1vid\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jde hlavn\u011b o Izrael. H\u00fas\u00edov\u00e9 p\u0159eru\u0161ili sv\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed \u00fatoky b\u011bhem slab\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v Gaze a obnovily se a\u017e pot\u00e9, co Izrael zastavil pomoc enkl\u00e1v\u011b. M\u00edsto aby tla\u010dil na Izrael, aby zru\u0161il svou blok\u00e1du \u2013 co\u017e je krok, kter\u00fd by mohl zm\u00edrnit nap\u011bt\u00ed \u2013 Washington se rozhodl pro bomby, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se spojil s \u00fasil\u00edm Tel Avivu\u00a0<\/span>zap\u00e1lit Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdhr\u016f\u017eky prezidenta Trumpa, \u017ee po\u017eene \u00cdr\u00e1n \u201eplne odpov\u011bdn\u00fdm\u201c za \u010diny Houthi\u016f, spolu se zac\u00edlen\u00edm jeho administrativy na vysok\u00e9 p\u0159edstavitele Houthi signalizuj\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed c\u00edl: vyprovokovat Teher\u00e1n k reakci, kter\u00e1 ospravedln\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed americko-izraelsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 akce. Tato hra na pokraji odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed u\u010debnici minul\u00fdch neokonzervativn\u00edch a demokratick\u00fdch katastrof, od Ir\u00e1ku po Libyi, kde kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 \u201ev\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c zrodilo dlouhodob\u00fd chaos.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lidsk\u00e1 cena t\u00e9to agrese je obrovsk\u00e1. \u00dadery prohloubily humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed krizi v Jemenu, ji\u017e po letech v\u00e1lky stra\u0161nou, a UNICEF ov\u011b\u0159il, \u017ee \u201ep\u0159i \u00fatoc\u00edch v severn\u00ed Sa’ad\u011b byli zabiti nejm\u00e9n\u011b dva chlapci ve v\u011bku \u0161est a osm let\u201c. Hlavn\u00ed b\u0159emeno nesly kmenov\u00e9 komunity, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e m\u00e9dia \u0159\u00edzen\u00e1 Houthi tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159i st\u00e1vce v reziden\u010dn\u00ed \u010dtvrti Kahza v provincii Ibb bylo zabito 15, v\u011bt\u0161inou \u017een a d\u011bt\u00ed z m\u00edstn\u00edch kmen\u016f. Humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed pracovn\u00edk Siddiq Khan\u00a0<\/span>\u0159ekl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0listu The Guardian: \u201eNed\u00e1vn\u00e9 bombov\u00e9 \u00fatoky zv\u00fd\u0161ily tlak na humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed sektor, kter\u00fd se ji\u017e hroutil,\u201c proto\u017ee p\u0159\u00edstavy a silnice \u2013 \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 z\u00e1chrann\u00e9 lana \u2013 le\u017e\u00ed v trosk\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n ze sv\u00e9 strany odm\u00edtl Trumpovy nukle\u00e1rn\u00ed dohody a vid\u011bl je jako n\u00e1tlak maskovan\u00fd jako diplomacii. Bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed v Jemenu spojen\u00e9 s vlastn\u00edmi izraelsk\u00fdmi \u00fatoky na c\u00edle Houthi jen prohlubuje odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed Teher\u00e1nu. \u00cdr\u00e1n zahnan\u00fd do kouta, tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 americko-izraelsk\u00e9 ose tou\u017e\u00edc\u00ed po nata\u017een\u00ed sval\u016f, by se mohl mst\u00edt \u2013 p\u0159\u00edmo nebo prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm z\u00e1stupc\u016f \u2013 a tla\u010dit region za bod zvratu. Spad by pak destabilizoval glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 trhy, naru\u0161il obchod a zapletl USA do dal\u0161\u00ed nekone\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, zat\u00edmco Izrael m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1tele bit\u00e9 americkou palebnou silou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na druhou stranu, konflikt s \u00cdr\u00e1nem nebo jak\u00e1koli takov\u00e1 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e1 konfrontace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b by byla pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159\u00ednosem pro americk\u00fd obrann\u00fd sektor \u2013 a u\u017e jsem d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o tom, jak by mohl b\u00fdt prezident, kter\u00fd u\u017e m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho nep\u0159\u00e1tel, dotla\u010den, aby \u201euklidnil\u201c takov\u00fd sektor uprost\u0159ed sv\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>v\u00e1lky proti \u010d\u00e1sti hlubok\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historick\u00fd precedens to podporuje \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky v Ir\u00e1ku\u00a0<\/span>vzrostly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0akcie Lockheed Martin od roku 2003 do roku 2007 o 150 % a akcie Northrop Grumman\u00a0<\/span>o 120 %<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b, s Trumpov\u00fdmi \u00fadery v Jemenu, jsou obrann\u00ed giganti jako Raytheon (v\u00fdrobce st\u0159el Tomahawk) a General Dynamics (dod\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lod\u011b) p\u0159ipraveni profitovat. Rozpo\u010det Pentagonu na rok 2025,\u00a0<\/span>projektovan\u00fd na 850 miliard dolar\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, by se mohl s novou v\u00e1lkou je\u0161t\u011b nav\u00fd\u0161it, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pokud \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program nebo \u00fatoky Houthi ospravedln\u00ed trval\u00e9 operace. R\u016fzn\u00ed analytici, novin\u00e1\u0159i a kritici \u010dasto komentovali, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0<\/span>zbrojn\u00edm spole\u010dnostem se da\u0159\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v konfliktech\u201c, poukazuj\u00ed na st\u00e1l\u00e9 pot\u0159eby p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f a stabilitu cen akci\u00ed jako na motivaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vliv obrann\u00e9ho sektoru na Trumpa by tak mohl b\u00fdt pom\u011brn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u00fd. Pr\u016fmysl (vzhledem k letectv\u00ed a obran\u011b)\u00a0<\/span>zam\u011bstn\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00edce ne\u017e 2 miliony Ameri\u010dan\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a disponuje rozpo\u010dtem na lobbov\u00e1n\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161i 100 milion\u016f dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b. Jen v roce 2024 spole\u010dnosti Lockheed Martin a Boeing v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bly na republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b, co\u017e je v souladu s Trumpovou ob\u011b\u017enou dr\u00e1hou. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 p\u0159edstavitele administrativy jako Pete Hegseth prosazuj\u00ed tvrd\u00fd postoj v\u016f\u010di Jemenu, jak ji\u017e bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd vzestup v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu by mohl Trumpa ovlivnit. V\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem \u2013 eskaluj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fadery Houthi\u016f \u2013 by skute\u010dn\u011b mohla sn\u00ed\u017eit HDP o 0,5\u20131 %, jak nastupuje vojensk\u00fd keynesi\u00e1nstv\u00ed, jak si b\u011bhem minul\u00fdch konflikt\u016f v\u0161imli ekonomov\u00e9 jako Paul Krugman.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova z\u00e1kladna v\u0161ak zahrnuje izolacionisty, kte\u0159\u00ed se boj\u00ed \u201ev\u011b\u010dn\u00fdch v\u00e1lek\u201c, a jeho kampa\u0148 slibovala, \u017ee se vyhne ba\u017ein\u00e1m na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt nav\u00edc riskuje prudk\u00e9 n\u00e1r\u016fsty cen ropy, \u010d\u00edm\u017e zas\u00e1hne spot\u0159ebitele a ztrat\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00e9 zisky zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 celn\u00edmi poplatky. Sektor by tak jako tak mohl na Trumpa tla\u010dit, \u0161eptat si o pracovn\u00edch m\u00edstech a akci\u00edch, nicm\u00e9n\u011b pon\u011bkud nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e1 s\u00e9rie americk\u00e9ho v\u016fdce a zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na dom\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00fdhry by ho mohly p\u0159im\u011bt k tomu, aby se \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lce odvr\u00e1til.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1le, postupn\u00e9 \u00fatoky Houthi\u016f? Nyn\u00ed je to jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed prodej \u2013 n\u00edzk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, vysok\u00fd zisk z obrany. Otisky prst\u016f tohoto odv\u011btv\u00ed jsou ji\u017e na t\u00e9to eskalaci; s radost\u00ed by Trumpa postr\u010dili d\u00e1l. Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee by to mohly b\u00fdt nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 kroky k dal\u0161\u00ed eskalaci s nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdmi v\u00fdsledky \u2013 a t\u011bch jsme vid\u011bli dost minim\u00e1ln\u011b od roku 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD,<\/a> antropologick\u00fd v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed a etnick\u00e9 konflikty<\/em><\/p>\n

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Izrael i obrann\u00fd sektor budou t\u011b\u017eit z dal\u0161\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f v Jemenu, probl\u00e9m je v tom,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":75903,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,1400,452,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75902"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75902"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75902\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}