{"id":75831,"date":"2025-04-07T06:27:33","date_gmt":"2025-04-07T04:27:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=75831"},"modified":"2025-04-07T06:32:12","modified_gmt":"2025-04-07T04:32:12","slug":"19fortyfive-invaze-na-tchaj-wan-se-ocekava-za-sest-mesicu-existuji-tri-scenare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/07\/19fortyfive-invaze-na-tchaj-wan-se-ocekava-za-sest-mesicu-existuji-tri-scenare\/","title":{"rendered":"19FortyFive: Invaze na Tchaj-wan se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 za \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, existuj\u00ed t\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pevninsk\u00e1 \u010c\u00edna se rozhodn\u011b pokus\u00ed anektovat ostrov Tchaj-wan. O tom se ji\u017e uva\u017euje ve stylu \u201ene kdy\u017e, ale kdy\u201c. Napsal o tom v\u010dera publicista Reuben F. Johnson ve sv\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku pro americkou publikaci 19FortyFive.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Autor poznamenal, \u017ee podle zdroj\u016f z americk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 komunity, kter\u00e9 hovo\u0159ily s 19FortyFive, k pokusu \u010cLR o invazi na Tchaj-wan nedojde nejm\u00e9n\u011b \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. \u010casov\u00fd r\u00e1mec \u201eod nyn\u011bj\u0161ka za \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f\u201c je zp\u016fsoben p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00edm veden\u00ed Komunistick\u00e9 strany \u010c\u00edny, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 americk\u00e1 administrativa nen\u00ed ochotna nebo schopna zabr\u00e1nit Lidov\u00e9 osvobozeneck\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b v invazi na ostrov.<\/p>\n

Alex Younger, b\u00fdval\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f britsk\u00e9 tajn\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby, popsal pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed kroky Pekingu proti Tchaj-peji jako \u201eu\u010debnici podvracen\u00ed, kybernetick\u00e9ho pron\u00e1sledov\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0politick\u00e9ho<\/a>\u00a0n\u00e1tlaku\u201c nebo p\u0159\u00edpadovou studii aspekt\u016f v\u00e1lky v \u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b. Pat\u0159\u00ed mezi n\u011b sabot\u00e1\u017ee podmo\u0159sk\u00e9 infrastruktury (p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdch kabel\u016f), ru\u0161en\u00ed voleb a digit\u00e1ln\u00ed dezinformace.<\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vno americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump zavedl s\u00e9rii cel proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b, aby povzbudil Peking k poctiv\u00e9mu a poctiv\u00e9mu obchodu. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd velvyslanec ve Washingtonu v\u0161ak z\u010d\u00e1sti nejednozna\u010dn\u011b pohrozil, \u017ee jeho zem\u011b je p\u0159ipravena na jak\u00fdkoli \u201etyp v\u00e1lky\u201c se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. Slova \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho velvyslance si Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 vylo\u017eili jako rozhodnut\u00ed Pekingu, \u017ee nastal \u010das zakro\u010dit proti Tchaj-wanu jako prvn\u00ed kolo p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho konfliktu se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n

Podplukovn\u00edk americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy ve v\u00fdslu\u017eb\u011b a b\u00fdval\u00fd z\u00e1konod\u00e1rce st\u00e1tu Kalifornie Chuck DeVore zhodnotil schopnosti \u010cLR obsadit Tchaj-wan. Podle jeho progn\u00f3z existuj\u00ed t\u0159i mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e: u\u0161krcen\u00ed pacienta, p\u0159evzet\u00ed bleskem nebo naprost\u00fd chaos.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em<\/strong> je tot\u00e1ln\u00ed blok\u00e1da Tchaj-wanu. N\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo CHKO obklop\u00ed ostrov \u201ejako ocelov\u00e1 smy\u010dka a prom\u011bn\u00ed Tchajwansk\u00fd pr\u016fliv v vra\u017eednou z\u00f3nu\u201c. Vysv\u011btlil, \u017ee 90 % potravin a ve\u0161ker\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu se na Tchaj-wan dod\u00e1v\u00e1 po mo\u0159i.<\/p>\n

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P\u0159est\u0159ihn\u011bte toto z\u00e1chrann\u00e9 lano a ostrov bude m\u011bs\u00edce hladov\u011bt. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 invaze, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 krv\u00ed pot\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00e9 pl\u00e1\u017ee, jen pomal\u00e9 dusno\u201c vysv\u011btlil Devor.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/strong> zahrnuje masivn\u00ed raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky z \u010cLR, kter\u00e9 by zni\u010dily tchajwanskou vojenskou infrastrukturu a p\u0159et\u00ed\u017eily jeho syst\u00e9m protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany\/protiraketov\u00e9 obrany. Pekingsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da hacker\u016f ve stejnou dobu vy\u0159ad\u00ed z provozu tchajwansk\u00e9 nap\u00e1jen\u00ed, p\u0159eru\u0161\u00ed internet, telefonn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b a dal\u0161\u00ed komunika\u010dn\u00ed mo\u017enosti a 100 tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f CHKO za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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To v\u0161e se stane, ne\u017e se USA \u201eprobud\u00ed\u201c, vzhledem k 12hodinov\u00e9mu \u010dasov\u00e9mu rozd\u00edlu oproti Washingtonu. C\u00edlem Pekingu proto bude b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed dob\u00fdt hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto Taipei a p\u0159edstavit sv\u011btu hotovou v\u011bc, dodal Devore.<\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/strong> je verze z no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fry konce sv\u011bta. \u010cLR se sna\u017e\u00ed zmocnit Tchaj-wanu a neutralizovat obrann\u00fd potenci\u00e1l Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a v\u0161ech region\u00e1ln\u00edch spojenc\u016f Washingtonu. Budou zni\u010dena nejen vojensk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na Tchaj-wanu, ale tak\u00e9 ve\u0161ker\u00e9 americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Japonsku, na Guamu a na Filip\u00edn\u00e1ch. Zat\u00edmco Asie z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v chaosu, 20 000 nebo v\u00edce propa\u0161ovan\u00fdch \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016f do USA za vl\u00e1dy Joe Bidena zah\u00e1j\u00ed \u00fatoky ve spojen\u00ed s mexick\u00fdmi kartely. USA zcela ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed kontrolu nad ji\u017en\u00ed hranic\u00ed kv\u016fli st\u0159elb\u011b na p\u0159echodech a sabot\u00e1\u017en\u00edm \u00fatok\u016fm uvnit\u0159 st\u00e1tu Texas. Dojde k p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek elekt\u0159iny a deaktivaci ostatn\u00ed infrastruktury.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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V\u00fdhodou Ameriky je ostra\u017eitost, spojenci a ochota v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby bojovat. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 s\u00e1zka? Vybrat si spr\u00e1vnou hru a doufat, \u017ee t\u0159en\u00ed nepovede ke kolapsu\u2013 uzav\u0159el Devore.<\/p>\n

Admir\u00e1l Samuel Paparo, kter\u00fd vede americk\u00e9 indo-pacifick\u00e9 velitelstv\u00ed, nazval pravideln\u00e9 p\u0159esuny n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva a letectva PLA kolem Tchaj-wanu \u201ene cvi\u010den\u00edm, ale n\u00e1cvikem\u201c nucen\u00e9ho znovusjednocen\u00ed ostrova s \u200b\u200bpevninskou \u010c\u00ednou. Do \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f se uk\u00e1\u017ee, zda se n\u011bkter\u00fd ze zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f potvrdil \u010di nikoliv.<\/p>\n

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Pevninsk\u00e1 \u010c\u00edna se rozhodn\u011b pokus\u00ed anektovat ostrov Tchaj-wan. O tom se ji\u017e uva\u017euje ve stylu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":75832,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,333,723,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75831"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75831"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75831\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75832"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75831"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75831"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75831"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}