{"id":75636,"date":"2025-04-04T07:33:21","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T05:33:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=75636"},"modified":"2025-04-04T07:33:21","modified_gmt":"2025-04-04T05:33:21","slug":"zbynek-fiala-konec-sveta-jak-jsme-ho-znali","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/04\/04\/zbynek-fiala-konec-sveta-jak-jsme-ho-znali\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Konec sv\u011bta jak jsme ho znali"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Spojenci, nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9, osoleni jsou v\u0161ichni. Dokonce i tu\u010d\u0148\u00e1ci na mal\u00fdch antarktick\u00fdch ostrovech, jak si v\u0161imly agentury. Celn\u00ed lavina, vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e1 Trumpem, je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed za sto let a ru\u0161\u00ed star\u00e9 vztahy. Chytneme se p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti m\u00edrov\u00e9 ekonomiky bez okov\u016f vazalstv\u00ed?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump nakonec trochu couvnul a nenastavil zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed cla na 25 procentech, jak zpo\u010d\u00e1tku vyhro\u017eoval, ale i tak zabouchl dve\u0159e za hyperglobalizac\u00ed. A ta je taky zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed desetiprocentn\u00ed clo, kter\u00fdm Trump pokropil sv\u011bt plo\u0161n\u011b, dopl\u0148uj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed cla, star\u00e1 i nov\u00e1. U\u017e v\u00a0b\u0159eznu byla obnovena cla na ocel a hlin\u00edk v\u010detn\u011b v\u00fdrobk\u016f z\u00a0t\u011bchto kov\u016f, jako jsou potrub\u00ed, dr\u00e1ty nebo plechy. Stejn\u00e1 25 procentn\u00ed sazba te\u010f plat\u00ed na automobily, co\u017e obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 drt\u00ed N\u011bmecko, a p\u0159es n\u011bj i tak\u00e9 \u010cesko. Vyv\u00e1\u017eet do Ameriky bude opravdu t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed snadn\u00e9 se v\u00a0t\u00e9 zm\u011bti protiobchodn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed vyznat, ale nesm\u00ed n\u00e1m uniknout novinka recipro\u010dn\u00edch cel. Ta maj\u00ed vyrovnat cla napa\u0159en\u00e1 Ameri\u010dan\u016fm jejich obchodn\u00edmi partnery.<\/p>\n

T\u0159eba dovoz aut do EU je zpoplatn\u011bn 10 procenty, zat\u00edmco do USA dosud jen 2,5 procenty. Nebo t\u0159eba evropsk\u00e9 ml\u00e9\u010dn\u00e9 produkty jsou chr\u00e1n\u011bny sazbou 30 procent, zat\u00edmco USA brzdily tlak konkurence jen 17 procenty. S\u00a0ropn\u00fdmi produkty to je opa\u010dn\u011b (ty chceme), tak\u017ee cestou sem se p\u0159iraz\u00ed jen 2,5 procenta, m\u00ed\u0148 ne\u017e 6,5 procenta do USA. Ale tohle v\u0161echno zapome\u0148te je\u0161t\u011b d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e jste se to sta\u010dili nau\u010dit. Sv\u011bt, kter\u00fd jsme znali, u\u017e nen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Trump m\u00e1 \u0159adu strategick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, do kter\u00fdch se sice trochu zamot\u00e1v\u00e1, ale jsou v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b spr\u00e1vn\u00e9. Kdyby znal v\u0161echna jejich rizika, asi by se do nich nepustil. Je tu ov\u0161em jedno supervelk\u00e9 riziko, a t\u00edm je z\u00e1vislost ekonomiky USA na p\u0159erostl\u00e9m finan\u010dn\u00edm sektoru a s\u00edti podma\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch smluv o fran\u010d\u00edz\u00edch, vyu\u017eit\u00ed intelektu\u00e1ln\u00edho bohatstv\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00edch forem m\u011bkk\u00e9 s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 jsou hmatateln\u00e9 asi jako vzduch nebo jarn\u00ed zp\u011bv ptactva, tam kde je\u0161t\u011b zbylo. USA \u017eily z\u00a0podroben\u00ed druh\u00fdch, a na to u\u017e nelze dlouhodob\u011b spol\u00e9hat, toto podroben\u00ed se drol\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Cla maj\u00ed pomoci tak\u00e9 Trumpovu rozpo\u010dtu, aby zalepily d\u00edru po sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dan\u00ed. To m\u00e1 b\u00fdt dal\u0161\u00ed konkuren\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdhoda. Av\u0161ak nejde jen o ekonomickou ot\u00e1zku, d\u00edra by se dala zalepit dal\u0161\u00edmi hromadami st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. Jen\u017ee vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed o dluhov\u00e9m stropu d\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00fd prostor politick\u00fdm hr\u00e1tk\u00e1m jednotliv\u00fdch kongresman\u016f z\u00a0obou stran, a ti by snadno Trumpa znovu o\u017eu\u017elali na kost jako b\u011bhem jeho prvn\u00edho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Mohli by mu zma\u0159it jeho hlavn\u00ed c\u00edl. Trump pochopil pr\u00e1zdnotu iluze, \u017ee net\u0159eba nic vyr\u00e1b\u011bt, kdy\u017e se d\u00e1 v\u0161echno koupit. Zadrhlo to p\u0159i epidemii, ot\u0159\u00e1sla t\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00ed krize, a degenerace zem\u011b bez v\u00fdroby m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt trval\u00e1.<\/p>\n

St\u00e1le vleklej\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lky ukazuj\u00ed rostouc\u00ed sebev\u011bdom\u00ed v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch \u010d\u00e1stech sv\u011bta a ani s\u00ed\u0165 vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen rozeset\u00fdch po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 syst\u00e9m pod\u0159\u00edzenosti udr\u017eovat v\u00a0chodu, nem\u016f\u017ee nab\u00eddnout v\u00edc ne\u017e n\u011bjak\u00fd ten v\u00fdbuch, kter\u00fdm se tak\u00e9 nikdo nenaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ty v\u00fdbuchy se tak\u00e9 mohou snadno vymknout z\u00a0rukou a kdyby do\u0161lo na anihila\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bnu, do kter\u00e9 se te\u010f \u017eenou i Francouzi a Britov\u00e9 se sv\u00fdmi ne\u010detn\u00fdmi prskavkami, jak si pom\u016f\u017eou ti, kdo se p\u0159edt\u00edm schovali v\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00e9 d\u00ed\u0159e? Co uvid\u00ed, a\u017e pak vylezou na zni\u010den\u00fd a krajn\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd povrch kdysi \u017eiv\u00e9 planety? Na Trumpovi je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee tuhle ot\u00e1zku si kladl tak\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Obnova v\u00fdroby ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech je tedy kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm z\u00e1m\u011brem nov\u00e9ho \u0161erifa ve Washingtonu, a aby to bylo mo\u017en\u00e9, mus\u00ed se vr\u00e1tit k\u00a0n\u00e1rodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdm praktik\u00e1m sv\u00fdch ji\u017en\u00edch soused\u016f z\u00a0obdob\u00ed po druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, kte\u0159\u00ed piplali sv\u00e9 pr\u016fmysly v\u00a0ochrann\u00e9 atmosf\u00e9\u0159e cel i nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch mimoceln\u00edch bari\u00e9r. Pozd\u011bji se zamotali do konfliktu s\u00edl\u00edc\u00ed m\u011bny a r\u016fstu n\u00e1klad\u016f, zat\u00edmco pot\u0159ebovali r\u016fst exportn\u00ed konkurenceschopnosti, aby mohli splatit \u00fav\u011bry, kter\u00fdmi to financovali, ale to n\u00e1s te\u010f nep\u00e1l\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ekonomov\u00e9 se pokou\u0161ej\u00ed p\u0159irovn\u00e1vat Trumpovu l\u00e9\u010dbu p\u0159irovnat k\u00a0d\u00e1vn\u00e9 praxi pou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed \u017eilou, kter\u00e1 po stalet\u00edch experiment\u016f potvrdila, \u017ee co t\u011b nezabije, to t\u011b oslab\u00ed. Jen\u017ee stejn\u011b funguje i st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed globaliza\u010dn\u00ed praxe. Ta, to nezapom\u00ednejme, p\u0159\u00e1la siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu.<\/p>\n

U t\u011bch n\u011bkolika siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch se hromadily zisky a obchodn\u00ed p\u0159ebytky, zat\u00edmco u v\u011bt\u0161iny t\u011bch slab\u0161\u00edch dluhy a nemo\u017enost obchodn\u00ed toky n\u011bjak vyrovnat. Dorostlo to do t\u00e9 m\u00edry, \u017ee starosti maj\u00ed dlu\u017en\u00edci i v\u011b\u0159itel\u00e9. A tam, kde spl\u00e1tky nep\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed, zasahuje st\u00e1t a poskytuje slu\u017eby, jako kdyby prachy byly.<\/p>\n

U\u017e i v \u0159ad\u011b evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 voln\u00fd obchod a globalizaci tak nad\u0161en\u011b prosazovaly, zadlu\u017een\u00ed st\u00e1tu p\u0159es\u00e1hlo jeden celoro\u010dn\u00ed HDP. Plat\u00ed to pro It\u00e1lii, Francii, \u0160pan\u011blsko nebo Portugalsko z\u00a0ji\u017en\u00edho k\u0159\u00eddla, ale tak\u00e9 pro Belgii, kter\u00e1 tam nepat\u0159\u00ed. Pr\u016fm\u011br EU je 82,6 procenta, co\u017e je zhruba \u00farove\u0148 N\u011bmecka. A v\u00a0t\u00e9to situaci se se pr\u00e1v\u011b uvolnila stavidla zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed na bezp\u0159\u00edkladnou militarizaci (pokud si nevzpomeneme na N\u011bmecko 30 let).<\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se uzav\u00edraj\u00ed, ale Evropa se nechce sm\u00ed\u0159it se ztr\u00e1tou ochrann\u00e9ho de\u0161tn\u00edku hodn\u00e9ho kmotra. A mluv\u00ed o \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed\u2026 A\u0165 se rad\u011bji zept\u00e1 zrcadla, kdo je tady nejkr\u00e1sn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u2026<\/p>\n

S\u00a0t\u00edm uzav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00edm to nen\u00ed tak jednozna\u010dn\u00e9. Trump chce Kanadu a Gr\u00f3nsko, chce Panamsk\u00fd pr\u016fplav, chce Rivi\u00e9ru v\u00a0Gaze. Ale nechce n\u00e1s. To nen\u00ed tak m\u00e1lo.<\/p>\n

Nem\u011bly by n\u00e1m uj\u00edt dal\u0161\u00ed detaily. Do Washingtonu p\u0159icestoval nov\u00fd rusk\u00fd velvyslanec Alexandr Dar\u010dijev a m\u016f\u017ee jednat o obnov\u011b partnerstv\u00ed nakr\u00e1tko. Nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edm t\u00e9matem je vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00fdch nerostn\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, od kter\u00fdch se Evropa s\u00a0odporem odklonila. \u010ci sp\u00ed\u0161e jen od jejich obchodn\u00edho vyu\u017eit\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Po drobc\u00edch ko\u0159isti z\u00a0pora\u017een\u00e9ho a rozparcelovan\u00e9ho Ruska by EU nad\u0161en\u011b sko\u010dila. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b a\u017e po americk\u00e9m supovi, kter\u00fd by byl hlavn\u00edm konzumentem mr\u0161iny. Proto Evropany nemohlo nic vyd\u011bsit v\u00edc, ne\u017e \u017ee v\u00e1lka nebude.<\/p>\n

M\u00edrov\u00fd Trump je pro v\u00e1le\u010dn\u011b rozdycht\u011bnou Evropu jasn\u00fd nep\u0159\u00edtel. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee u\u017e n\u00e1m nebude velet. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee je to krut\u00e9 pro pochopy, kter\u00e9 \u017eivilo odez\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00a0\u00fast velk\u00e9ho \u0161\u00e9fa, kter\u00fd jim sl\u00edbil ochranu, kdy\u017e pol\u00edbili prsten.<\/p>\n

Doufejme, \u017ee budoucnost pat\u0159\u00ed jin\u00fdm. Napsal mi v\u00a0mailov\u00e9m povzdechu m\u016fj obl\u00edben\u00fd autor Jan Schneider:<\/p>\n

Bylo by t\u0159eba, aby se akademici pochlapili a za\u010dali zad\u00e1vat t\u00e9mata diplomek a diserta\u010dek na t\u00e9ma V\u00c1LE\u010cN\u00c1 vs M\u00cdROV\u00c1 EKONOMIKA. V jak\u00e9 kondici byly st\u00e1ty p\u0159ed prvn\u00ed a druhou sv\u011btovou, studenou a hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lkou, a v jak\u00e9 kondici z toho kdo vy\u0161el.<\/em><\/p>\n

Tlesk\u00e1m!<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Spojenci, nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9, osoleni jsou v\u0161ichni. Dokonce i tu\u010d\u0148\u00e1ci na mal\u00fdch antarktick\u00fdch ostrovech, jak si v\u0161imly…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67609,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,1026,59,276,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75636"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75636"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75636\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67609"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}