{"id":75389,"date":"2025-03-31T07:15:26","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T05:15:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=75389"},"modified":"2025-03-31T07:15:26","modified_gmt":"2025-03-31T05:15:26","slug":"michael-svatos-trump-se-prepocital-letosni-ruska-jarni-ofenziva-zacala-o-14-dni-drive-nez-loni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/03\/31\/michael-svatos-trump-se-prepocital-letosni-ruska-jarni-ofenziva-zacala-o-14-dni-drive-nez-loni\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: Trump se p\u0159epo\u010d\u00edtal \u2013 Leto\u0161n\u00ed rusk\u00e1 jarn\u00ed ofenz\u00edva za\u010dala o 14 dn\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e loni"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<h3>Trump se p\u0159epo\u010d\u00edtal \u2013 Leto\u0161n\u00ed rusk\u00e1 jarn\u00ed ofenz\u00edva za\u010dala o 14 dn\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e loni \u2013 Osudov\u00e1 chyba kyjevsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu \u2013 Po\u010das\u00ed Rus\u016fm p\u0159eje \u2013 Velk\u00e1 anal\u00fdza!<\/h3>\n<p>Trump cht\u011bl letos je\u0161t\u011b do konce rozbahn\u011bn\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed Rasputica uzav\u0159\u00edt na Ukrajin\u011b rychl\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, ale zarputil\u00fd odpor Kyjeva a Bruselu proti v\u0161em jeho m\u00edrov\u00fdm snah\u00e1m nahr\u00e1l d\u00edky po\u010das\u00ed Rus\u016fm, a ti v\u010dera vyrazili ve dvou sb\u00edhav\u00fdch sm\u011brech na Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed. Rusk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva bude letos slavit je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00fasp\u011bchy ne\u017e lo\u0148sk\u00e1, a je proto na \u010dase, ji rozebrat podrobn\u011bji:<\/p>\n<h3>(1) Rekapitulace lo\u0148sk\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy, a pou\u010den\u00ed z n\u00ed pro leto\u0161n\u00ed ofenz\u00edvu:<\/h3>\n<p>Ve dnech 23. a 24. \u00fanora 2024 rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1l Mordvi\u010dev, po lednov\u00e9m dobyt\u00ed p\u0159edm\u011bst\u00ed Don\u011bcka Avdijivky, vyrazil t\u0159emi soub\u011b\u017en\u00fdmi kolonami p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00edmi ukrajinsk\u00fd trojzubec do prvn\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f proti druh\u00e9 linii ukrajinsk\u00e9 obrany, a pod\u00e9l t\u0159\u00ed kvalitn\u00edch zpevn\u011bn\u00fdch cest a jedn\u00e9 \u017eeleznice, kter\u00e9 v\u0161echny vedou z m\u011bsta Don\u011bck na z\u00e1pad, a severoz\u00e1pad, vyrazil na m\u011bsto Pokrovsk. Druhou a t\u0159et\u00ed ukrajinskou obrannou linii mezi mal\u00fdmi m\u011bste\u010dky \u0411\u0435\u0440\u0434\u0438\u0447\u0456,\u00a0\u041e\u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0435\u00a0a\u00a0\u0421\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0439\u043e\u0432\u0435, vzd\u00e1lenou pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b 10 km od Avdijivky, gener\u00e1l Mordvi\u010dev prorazil ve dnech 14. a\u017e 29. dubna 2024, kdy se ust\u00e1lilo po\u010das\u00ed, a umo\u017enilo rychl\u00e9 p\u0159esuny a z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed jeho vojsk. Od toho okam\u017eiku byl Mordvi\u010dev k nezastaven\u00ed, a postupoval vp\u0159ed, dokud ho koncem \u0159\u00edjna nezastavila nov\u00e1 Rasputica.<\/p>\n<p>Tento rusk\u00fd postup gener\u00e1la Mordvi\u010deva od za\u010d\u00e1tku kv\u011btna a\u017e do konce srpna 2024 byl pro dosavadn\u00ed pr\u016fb\u011bh v\u00e1lky nav\u00fdsost atypick\u00fd, proto\u017ee Ukrajinci vykl\u00edzeli v\u011bt\u0161inu m\u011bst i vesnic na trase Mordvi\u010devova \u00fatoku tak\u0159ka bez boje, a teprve s p\u0159\u00edchodem podzimu se vzchopili k n\u011bjak\u00e9 obran\u011b, a s p\u0159\u00edchodem zimy dokonce k obran\u011b hou\u017eevnat\u00e9. A kdy\u017e ani to nepomohlo, vrhnul Kyjev v dob\u011b zamrznut\u00ed bahna do proti\u00fatoku proti z\u00e1padn\u00edmu k\u0159\u00eddlu gener\u00e1la Mordvi\u010deva novou bojovou skupinu sv\u00e9ho gener\u00e1la Drapatyje vytvo\u0159enou z n\u011bkolika elitn\u00edch mechanizovan\u00fdch brig\u00e1d sta\u017een\u00fdch z kursk\u00e9 bitvy, a z n\u011bkolika nov\u00fdch mechanizovan\u00fdch brig\u00e1d \u010derstv\u011b vycvi\u010den\u00fdch a vyzbrojen\u00fdch v zem\u00edch NATO.<\/p>\n<p>V prostoru z\u00e1padn\u011b a ji\u017en\u011b od Pokrovska tak od ledna do b\u0159ezna 2025 prob\u011bhla \u00fapln\u011b stejn\u00e1 bitva, jak\u00e1 prob\u011bhla od prosince 2023 do b\u0159ezna 2024 v prostoru severoz\u00e1padn\u011b od Avdijivky. V obou bitv\u00e1ch Kyjev nakomandoval do \u010deln\u00edch protizte\u010d\u00ed sv\u00e9 elitn\u00ed obrn\u011bn\u00e9 formace, a ty se sr\u00e1\u017eely ve st\u0159etn\u00fdch boj\u00edch s rusk\u00fdmi jednotkami. Gener\u00e1l Mordvi\u010dev v obou sra\u017een\u00edch dos\u00e1hnul sv\u00e9ho, kombinac\u00ed taktik, vyh\u00fdb\u00e1n\u00ed se st\u0159etn\u00fdm boj\u016fm a \u00fapornou pru\u017enou obranou, ukrajinsk\u00e9 elitn\u00ed obrn\u011bn\u00e9 i mechanizovan\u00e9 jednotky vy\u010derpal, a op\u011bt tak letos jako loni kyjevsk\u00fd re\u017eim zbavil pro jarn\u00ed a letn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dnou kampa\u0148 v\u0161ech kvalitn\u00edch z\u00e1loh. A to bude m\u00edt pro Kyjev katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky, pokud nebude rychle uzav\u0159en m\u00edr.<\/p>\n<h3>(2) Kyjev p\u0159i\u0161el p\u0159i leto\u0161n\u00ed zimn\u00ed protiofenz\u00edv\u011b gener\u00e1la Drapatyje o v\u0161echny rezervy, stejn\u011b jako p\u0159i protiofenz\u00edv\u011b gener\u00e1la Syrsk\u00e9ho na p\u0159elomu roku 2023\/24. Na rozd\u00edl od roku 2024 v\u0161ak letos nebude m\u00edt k dispozici 2 loni nav\u00edc mobilizovan\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00edky.<\/h3>\n<p>Gener\u00e1l Gerasimov vede v\u00e1lku proti kyjevsk\u00e9mu re\u017eimu s hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem, aby vysok\u00fdmi ztr\u00e1tami nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 p\u011bchoty sn\u00ed\u017eil bojov\u00e9 stavy arm\u00e1dn\u00edch jednotek Ukrajiny pod kritickou mez, a dos\u00e1hnul stavu, kdy ztrat\u00ed schopnost soudr\u017en\u00e9 obrany, a cel\u00e1 frontov\u00e1 linie se zhrout\u00ed, a Rusov\u00e9 za\u010dnou Ukrajince pron\u00e1sledovat.\u00a0 Za posledn\u00ed dva roky do\u0161lo na ukrajinsk\u00e9 front\u011b ke dv\u011bma p\u0159\u00edpad\u016fm ztr\u00e1ty takov\u00e9to kohezn\u00ed obrany.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>P\u0159\u00edpad prvn\u00ed \u2013 kv\u011bten a\u017e srpen 2024 \u2013 boji\u0161t\u011b mezi aglomeracemi Don\u011bck a Pokrovsk. Jakmile gener\u00e1l Syrskyj vy\u010derpal neust\u00e1l\u00fdmi \u00fatoky proti gener\u00e1lovi Mordvi\u010devovi, (\u0159\u00edjen 2023 a\u017e b\u0159ezen 2024), nejd\u0159\u00edve, aby zabr\u00e1nil p\u00e1du Avdijivky, a potom, aby stabilizoval druhou obrannou linii 10 km z\u00e1padn\u011b od n\u00ed,\u00a0 ve\u0161ker\u00e9 pou\u017eiteln\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy, nem\u011bl od konce dubna 2024 do konce srpna 2024 nic, \u010d\u00edm by rusk\u00e9 pr\u016flomy na front\u011b ucpal, ani \u010d\u00edm by sv\u00e9 frontov\u00e9 jednotky dopl\u0148oval. Rusov\u00e9, aby tento nedostatek ukrajinsk\u00fdch z\u00e1loh na don\u011bck\u00e9 front\u011b umocnili, zah\u00e1jili men\u0161\u00ed opera\u010dn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvu na Vol\u010dansk u Charkova, a na Kupjansk. A Ukrajinci, aby z\u0159edili hustotu rusk\u00fdch \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch formac\u00ed na don\u011bcko-z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9 front\u011b, vpadli do rusk\u00e9 kursk\u00e9 oblasti. Sou\u010dtem v\u0161ech t\u011bchto krok\u016f obou stran byl naprost\u00fd nedostatek hustoty ukrajinsk\u00fdch vojsk \u010del\u00edc\u00edch ofenz\u00edv\u00e1m, nejd\u0159\u00edve gener\u00e1la Mordvi\u010deva na Selidove a Pokrovsk, potom gener\u00e1la Kuzovleva na Kurachove, a nakonec gener\u00e1la San\u010dika na Vuhledar a Velykou Novosilku. Ukrajinsk\u00e1 obrana se p\u0159i v\u0161ech t\u011bchto ofenz\u00edv\u00e1ch rozpadala, a ztr\u00e1cela soudr\u017enost, a Rusov\u00e9 nakonec v\u017edy snadno postupovali vp\u0159ed, a zab\u00edrali m\u00edsty i boji nedot\u010den\u00e1 m\u011bsta i vesnice.<\/li>\n<li>P\u0159\u00edpad druh\u00fd \u2013 b\u0159ezen 2025 \u2013 boji\u0161t\u011b v okol\u00ed m\u011bsta Sud\u017ea v kursk\u00e9 gubernii Ruska. Jakmile Rusov\u00e9 odrazili v\u0161echny pokusy gener\u00e1la Syrsk\u00e9ho ovl\u00e1dnout ji\u017en\u00ed b\u0159ehy \u0159eky Sejm, (p\u0159elom srpna a z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2024), zah\u00e1jili pomalou, ale metodicky efektivn\u00ed likvidaci kursk\u00e9 invazn\u00ed skupiny Ukrajinc\u016f. Jakmile si Syrskyj uv\u011bdomil, \u017ee s pouhou jedinou 70km dlouhou z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed trasou, kter\u00e1 je po cel\u00e9 jej\u00ed d\u00e9lce vystavena palb\u011b d\u011bl, i n\u00e1let\u016fm dron\u016f od rusk\u00fdch jednotek na ji\u017en\u00edm b\u0159ehu \u0159eky Sejm, kter\u00e9 se mu nepoda\u0159ilo nikdy vypudit, nem\u016f\u017ee kursk\u00fd v\u00fdb\u011b\u017eek z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska udr\u017eet, tak za\u010dal sv\u00e9 elitn\u00ed mechanizovan\u00e9 jednotky, kter\u00e9 prostor p\u016fvodn\u011b dobyly, postupn\u011b nahrazovat levnou mobilizovanou p\u011bchotou. V\u00fdsledkem obou faktor\u016f, pak bylo rychl\u00e9 a nevyhnuteln\u00e9 zhroucen\u00ed cel\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 obrany kolem m\u011bsta Sud\u017ea v b\u0159eznu 2025.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Jakmile v kv\u011btnu 2024 ukrajinsk\u00fd parlament roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il mobiliza\u010dn\u00ed povinnost na osoby v\u011bku 25 a 26 let, ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da z\u00edskala pro rok 2024 ne 1 ale hned 3 dosud mobilizac\u00ed nedot\u010den\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00edky. To kyjevsk\u00e9 generalit\u011b umo\u017enilo vyzbrojit a vycvi\u010dit 5 nov\u00fdch mechanizovan\u00fdch brig\u00e1d o s\u00edle nejm\u00e9n\u011b dohromady 30 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f. A dvakr\u00e1t doplnit sv\u00e9 elitn\u00ed brig\u00e1dy vykrven\u00e9 nejprve v boj\u00edch proti gener\u00e1lu Mordvi\u010devovi u Don\u011bcka, a potom proti gener\u00e1lu Lapinovi u Kursku. T\u011bchto celkem asi 60 000 nov\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, pak umo\u017enilo leto\u0161n\u00ed protiofenz\u00edvu gener\u00e1la Drapatyje, i pomohlo stabilizovat frontu z\u00e1padn\u011b i v\u00fdchodn\u011b kolem obkli\u010dovan\u00e9 aglomerace Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad. Na konci b\u0159ezna 2025 jsou v\u0161ak tito voj\u00e1ci u\u017e efektivn\u011b spot\u0159ebov\u00e1ni, a leto\u0161n\u00ed dopl\u0148ovac\u00ed ro\u010dn\u00edk bude pouze jeden, tedy Kyjev bude m\u00edt\u00a0 letos k dispozici 3 kr\u00e1t m\u00e9n\u011b nov\u011b mobilizovateln\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, a i o dal\u0161\u00ed desetitis\u00edce lo\u0148skou mobilizac\u00ed zmen\u0161en\u00fd po\u010det norm\u00e1ln\u011b mobilizovateln\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f. V\u00fdpadek mobilizace roku 2025 na Ukrajin\u011b tak bude p\u0159edstavovat nejm\u00e9n\u011b 40 a\u017e 80 tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f oproti mobilizaci roku 2024. Jestli Ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nedok\u00e1zala loni nav\u00fd\u0161it sv\u00e9 frontov\u00e9 stavy, a postaven\u00ed 5 nov\u00fdch brig\u00e1d \u0161lo na \u00fa\u010det sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed po\u010dt\u016f voj\u00e1k\u016f v ostatn\u00edch frontov\u00fdch brig\u00e1d\u00e1ch, a to a\u010dkoli zmobilizovala nav\u00edc 2 ro\u010dn\u00edky, je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee v pr\u016fb\u011bhu leto\u0161n\u00edho roku budou jej\u00ed po\u010detn\u00ed stavy klesat, a na konci roku se m\u016f\u017eeme do\u010dkat pouze arm\u00e1dy Ukrajiny v s\u00edle 75% jej\u00ed s\u00edly na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku.<\/p>\n<h3>(3) Co bude tento dramatick\u00fd pokles po\u010detn\u00edho stavu Ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy ze 700 tis\u00edc na 550 tis\u00edc znamenat pro v\u00fdvoj boj\u016f!?<\/h3>\n<p>Proto\u017ee Ukrajina nen\u00ed nad\u00e1le schopna bez n\u00e1siln\u00e9 mobilizace svou arm\u00e1du dopl\u0148ovat, a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/swodki\/477338\">jej\u00ed jednotliv\u00e1 loveck\u00e1 komanda pro n\u00e1siln\u00fd odchyt branc\u016f u\u017e \u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed 8 honc\u016f a dv\u011b dod\u00e1vky pro odchyt jedin\u00e9 ob\u011bti<\/a>.\u00a0Je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee bez dramatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny mobilizace, bu\u010f dal\u0161\u00edm sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm v\u011bku mobilizovan\u00fdch, nebo mobilizac\u00ed ute\u010denc\u016f do EU, nebude m\u00edt u\u017e k\u00fdm nahrazovat sv\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty, kdy\u017e je nedok\u00e1zala nahradit u\u017e loni jinak ne\u017e sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm po\u010dt\u016f z\u00e1kopov\u00fdch jednotek, p\u0159emis\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00edm leteck\u00e9ho a leti\u0161tn\u00edho person\u00e1lu do frontov\u00fdch z\u00e1kop\u016f, a masivn\u00edm n\u00e1borem v\u011bz\u0148\u016f, kter\u00e9 pou\u017eila jako jate\u010dn\u00ed zv\u011b\u0159 k pror\u00e1\u017een\u00ed rusk\u00e9 obrany v kursk\u00e9 oblasti, a jako levnou n\u00e1vnadu pro rusk\u00e9 drony tamt\u00e9\u017e.<\/p>\n<p>Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da naopak dok\u00e1zala nashrom\u00e1\u017edit mocn\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy, podle samotn\u00fdch Ukrajinc\u016f,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.unian.ua\/war\/vtrati-rosiji-v-rosiyskiy-armiji-nestacha-bronetehniki-12961617.html\">Putin z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 30 a\u017e 40 000 smluvn\u00edch voj\u00e1k\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b, kde\u017eto Ukrajinci mu vy\u0159azuj\u00ed v\u010detn\u011b zran\u011bn\u00fdch, kte\u0159\u00ed se po \u010dase vracej\u00ed, maxim\u00e1ln\u011b 30 000 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Tento po\u010detn\u00ed \u00fadaj Ukrajinc\u016f je velmi snadn\u00e9 obr\u00e1tit proti nim. CIA minul\u00fd t\u00fdden vysoce hodnotila rusk\u00e9 oper\u00e1tory dron\u016f, a vychvalovala jejich mimo\u0159\u00e1dnou odbornou zdatnost. (Podrobn\u00e1 anal\u00fdza o v\u00e1lce dron\u016f, a rusko-\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 naprost\u00e9 technologick\u00e9 dominanci na tomto poli, vyjde z\u00edtra nebo poz\u00edt\u0159\u00ed. Odkazy budou a\u017e v n\u00ed.)<\/p>\n<p>Podle analytik\u016f, sou\u010dasn\u00fd rusk\u00fd FPV dron \u0159\u00edzen\u00fd po optick\u00fdch vl\u00e1knech p\u0159edstavuje sen v\u0161ech gener\u00e1l\u016f cel\u00e9 historie sv\u011bta, a to extr\u00e9mn\u011b mal\u00fd projektil se schopnost\u00ed naprosto p\u0159esn\u00e9ho z\u00e1sahu nejmen\u0161\u00edho mo\u017en\u00e9ho c\u00edle na boji\u0161ti bez mo\u017enosti let dronu k c\u00edli efektivn\u011b zastavit, a p\u0159i schopnosti \u00fato\u010dit v roj\u00edch a masov\u011b. Ka\u017ed\u00fd vojev\u016fdce miluje, kdy\u017e jeho voj\u00e1ci post\u0159\u00edlej\u00ed v\u0161echny nep\u0159\u00e1tele bez vlastn\u00edch ztr\u00e1t. Ukrajinsk\u00fd FPV dron nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fd elektronick\u00fdmi vlnami \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fdmi prostorem, tedy ne optick\u00fdmi sign\u00e1ly vl\u00e1knem, je mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd.<\/p>\n<p>Nejv\u011bhlasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fd dron-v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00edk Brody, p\u0159ezd\u00edvan\u00fd Ma\u010far, v\u016fdce cel\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy FPV dron\u016f, ned\u00e1vno p\u0159iznal, \u017ee efektivita ukrajinsk\u00e9ho FPV dronu je pouze 20%, ov\u0161em pouze pokud dolet\u00ed k c\u00edli. Podle analytik\u016f CIA je efektivita rusk\u00fdch FPV optick\u00fdch dron\u016f n\u00e1sobn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, a unik\u00e1tn\u00ed je, \u017ee ru\u0161t\u00ed oper\u00e1to\u0159i s nimi um\u00ed efektivn\u011b \u00fato\u010dit v n\u011bkolika\u010dlenn\u00fdch roj\u00edch. Proto\u017ee uzn\u00e1van\u00fd pom\u011br zran\u011bn\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f ob\u011bma stranami p\u0159edstavuje 2\/3 Rus\u016f podle Ukrajinc\u016f, a 3\/4 Rus\u016f podle Rus\u016f, za v\u00fdsledek \u010dinnosti dron\u016f, je jasn\u00e9, vzhledem k naprost\u00e9 p\u0159esnosti z\u00e1sah\u016f rusk\u00fdmi FPV optick\u00fdmi drony, \u017ee klasick\u00fd rozd\u00edl mezi obr\u00e1ncem a \u00fato\u010dn\u00edkem, p\u0159i n\u011bm\u017e m\u011bl obr\u00e1nce v\u00fdhodu ukryt\u00ed, a nesl tak ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty, pokud nebyl obkl\u00ed\u010den, a nebo nebyl slab\u0161\u00ed p\u0159i zapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ech sil a zbran\u00ed v pom\u011bru 1 ku 9 na \u00faseku boj\u016f, rusk\u00e9 FPV drony dokonale vynulovaly, a jak jsme u\u017e v minul\u00fd rok v anal\u00fdz\u00e1ch publikovali, Rusov\u00e9 podle Ukrajinc\u016f v z\u00e1v\u011bru letn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy gener\u00e1la Mordvi\u010deva u\u017e nesli ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty, dokonce i v boj\u00edch ve m\u011bstech, ne\u017e br\u00e1n\u00edc\u00ed se Ukrajinci. Tato smrteln\u00e1 p\u0159esnost dron\u016f, a schopnost termoviz\u00ed vy\u010denichat v\u0161echny nep\u0159\u00e1tele, bez ohledu na jejich maskov\u00e1n\u00ed, i ukryt\u00ed pod zem\u00ed, (Rusov\u00e9 standartn\u011b obkl\u00e1daj\u00ed vnit\u0159ek sv\u00fdch zemljanek, a \u00fakryt\u016f speci\u00e1ln\u00edmi termo-kov-miner\u00e1ln\u00edmi-textiliemi.<\/p>\n<p>Tud\u00ed\u017e je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee nejm\u00e9n\u011b oni vid\u00ed na sv\u00fdch senzorech pr\u016fniky tepla p\u0159es zeminu i st\u011bny. U Ukrajinc\u016f je toto vid\u011bt pouze ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch velitelsk\u00fdch doupatech), zcela zm\u011bnila pom\u011br ztr\u00e1t \u00fato\u010dn\u00edka i obr\u00e1nce. Ukrajinci bezv\u00fdhradn\u011b pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed ni\u010dit Rusy v pom\u011bru 1 ku 4, aby nebyli pora\u017eeni, a \u010d\u00edm ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed tento pom\u011br je, a dramaticky se ka\u017ed\u00fd rok sni\u017euje, t\u00edm rychlej\u0161\u00ed bude jejich nevyhnuteln\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eka.<\/p>\n<p>Tento dramatick\u00fd rozvoj nepom\u011bru mezi po\u010detn\u00edmi stavy arm\u00e1d Ukrajiny a Ruska v neprosp\u011bch Ukrajiny, je mo\u017en\u00e9 demonstrovat na \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch operac\u00edch obou stran. Cel\u00e9 boji\u0161t\u011b lze opera\u010dn\u011b rozd\u011blit z jihu na sever na tyto opera\u010dn\u00ed sektory Dn\u011bpr \u2013 rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1l Teplinskyj, Jih \u2013 rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1l San\u010dik, V\u00fdchod\u00a0 \u2013 rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1l Kuzovlev, St\u0159ed \u2013 rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1l Mordvi\u010dev, Z\u00e1pad \u2013 rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1l Nikiforov, Charkov \u2013 rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1l Lapin, Kursk \u2013 rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1l Alaudinov pod velen\u00edm gener\u00e1la Lapina.<\/p>\n<p>Zat\u00edmco Rusov\u00e9 vedli v roce 2024 pouze 2 ofenz\u00edvy sou\u010dasn\u011b na v\u0161ech sm\u011brech, Ukrajinci dok\u00e1zali v\u00e9st pouze dvakr\u00e1t 1 ofenz\u00edvu v trv\u00e1n\u00ed jen 2 m\u011bs\u00edce, ale v\u017edy jen na jedin\u00e9m, a to je\u0161t\u011b vedlej\u0161\u00edm boji\u0161ti. V roce 2025 u\u017e Rusov\u00e9 dokazuj\u00ed, \u017ee um\u00ed v\u00e9st sou\u010dasn\u011b ofenz\u00edvu skupiny gener\u00e1la San\u010dika, gener\u00e1la Kuzovleva, gener\u00e1la Nikiforova, i gener\u00e1la Alaudinova, a gener\u00e1l Mordvi\u010dev p\u0159itom vede z\u00e1padn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddlem obranu, a v\u00fdchodn\u00edm \u00fatok. Ka\u017ed\u00fdm dnem, kdy ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da po\u010detn\u011b sl\u00e1bne, Rusov\u00e9 zkou\u0161ej\u00ed p\u0159ej\u00edt do \u00fatoku na nov\u00e9m \u00faseku fronty. Alaudinov u\u017e vyhnal Ukrajince z kursk\u00e9 oblasti, a jeho severn\u00ed k\u0159\u00eddlo se u\u017e tla\u010d\u00ed od \u0159eky Sejm sm\u011brem na jih na ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed v\u00fdchodn\u011b od velkom\u011bsta Sumy. Nikiforov letos p\u0159ekro\u010dil \u0159eku Oskol u\u017e na n\u011bkolika m\u00edstech a ka\u017ed\u00fdm dnem se d\u00e1 b\u00fdt jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee brzy ovl\u00e1dne cel\u00fd severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed b\u0159eh Oskolu, a vyraz\u00ed na Charkov a vypud\u00ed Ukrajince z Kupjansku, a spoj\u00ed se s Lapinem u Vol\u010dansku. Mordvi\u010dev se ubr\u00e1nil proti\u00fatoku gener\u00e1la Drapatyje u aglomerace Pokrovsk, ale sou\u010dasn\u011b se tla\u010d\u00ed p\u0159es \u010casyv Jar na Slavjansk. Kuzovlev v\u010dera prolomil ukrajinskou obranu pod\u00e9l strategick\u00e9 cesty Don\u011bck-Kurachove-Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed a za\u010dal ze severu postupem na z\u00e1pad ohro\u017eovat t\u00fdl Ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy u m\u011bst Orechiv a Gujajpole. A San\u010dik prolomil tento m\u011bs\u00edc ukrajinskou obranu pod\u00e9l toku \u0159eky Dn\u011bpr sm\u011brem na sever, a za\u010dal postupem na sever ohro\u017eovat ze z\u00e1padu t\u00fdl ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy u m\u011bst Orechiv a Gujajpole. Rusko tedy letos u\u017e sou\u010dasn\u011b \u00fato\u010d\u00ed ve 4 sektorech, a p\u016fl (Mordvi\u010dev), a klid je pouze u Lapina u Vol\u010dansku, a Teplinsk\u00e9ho na ji\u017en\u00edm Dn\u011bpru.<\/p>\n<p>Jakmile se napjat\u00e1 t\u011btiva ukrajinsk\u00e9ho luku p\u0159etrhne, nen\u00ed nesnadn\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit rychl\u00e9 zhroucen\u00ed cel\u00e9ho re\u017eimu, jako v Ji\u017en\u00edm Vietnamu. Saigonsk\u00fd re\u017eim m\u011bl v roce sv\u00e9ho p\u00e1du (1975) 19 milion\u016f obyvatel, a plochu 175 000 km2, Ukrajina m\u00e1 v roce 2025 m\u00e9n\u011b jak 30 milion\u016f obyvatel, a plochu asi 480 000 km2. Saigonsk\u00fd re\u017eim p\u0159itom padnul za 4 m\u011bs\u00edce, 2 t\u00fddny a 3 dny od zah\u00e1jen\u00ed tzv. v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 jarn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy 1975 vojsky Severn\u00edho Vietnamu. Jakmile se Jihovietnamsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da rozpadla, ztratila v\u016fli bojovat, 560 km ke hlavn\u00edmu m\u011bstu Ji\u017en\u00edho Vietnamu Severn\u00ed Vietnamci urazili za pouh\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc! Obdobn\u00e1 situace se nyn\u00ed r\u00fdsuje na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_17104\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 893px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\" wp-image-17104\" src=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/photo_2025-03-30_22-56-56.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/photo_2025-03-30_22-56-56.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/photo_2025-03-30_22-56-56-300x213.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/photo_2025-03-30_22-56-56-1030x732.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/photo_2025-03-30_22-56-56-768x546.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/photo_2025-03-30_22-56-56-1536x1091.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/photo_2025-03-30_22-56-56-2048x1455.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/photo_2025-03-30_22-56-56-1500x1066.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/photo_2025-03-30_22-56-56-260x185.jpg 260w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/photo_2025-03-30_22-56-56-705x501.jpg 705w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/photo_2025-03-30_22-56-56-450x320.jpg 450w\" alt=\"\" width=\"893\" height=\"635\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17104\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-17104\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">V\u010derej\u0161\u00ed pr\u016flom pod\u011bl strategick\u00e9 d\u00e1lnice Don\u011bck-Kurachove-Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>V anal\u00fdze se nepo\u010d\u00edtalo, ani s uzav\u0159en\u00edm m\u00edru, ani s invaz\u00ed NATO na Ukrajinu.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/map-2260-trump-se-prepocital-letosni-ruska-jarni-ofenziva-zacala-o-14-dni-drive-nez-loni-osudova-chyba-kyjevskeho-rezimu-pocasi-rusum-preje-velka-analyza\/\">Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-27204\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Michael_Svatos.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"180\" height=\"180\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Michael_Svatos.png 180w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Michael_Svatos-150x150.png 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 180px) 100vw, 180px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump se p\u0159epo\u010d\u00edtal \u2013 Leto\u0161n\u00ed rusk\u00e1 jarn\u00ed ofenz\u00edva za\u010dala o 14 dn\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e loni&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":64382,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,1917,2752,22,452,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75389"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75389"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75389\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75389"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75389"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}