{"id":75316,"date":"2025-03-31T00:15:42","date_gmt":"2025-03-30T22:15:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=75316"},"modified":"2025-03-30T16:17:50","modified_gmt":"2025-03-30T14:17:50","slug":"cinsky-boom-umele-inteligence-obrovsky-vzdusny-hrad-praskl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/03\/31\/cinsky-boom-umele-inteligence-obrovsky-vzdusny-hrad-praskl\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd boom um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence: Obrovsk\u00fd vzdu\u0161n\u00fd hrad praskl!"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Podle nov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 bublina AI v \u010c\u00edn\u011b praskat. P\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 k tomu sm\u011bs komunistick\u00e9ho \u0161patn\u00e9ho hospoda\u0159en\u00ed, sebeobohacov\u00e1n\u00ed a nezku\u0161enosti z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdch akt\u00e9r\u016f. Prost\u011b chyb\u00ed nadhled a co bude d\u00e1l?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Odv\u00e1\u017en\u00fd vp\u00e1d \u010c\u00edny do sv\u011bta um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence (AI) byl p\u0159ed p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edci na rtech v\u0161em \u2013 triumf\u00e1ln\u00ed tah, kter\u00fd pozvedl technologick\u00e9 ambice \u0158\u00ed\u0161e st\u0159edu do nebes. Miliony GPU Nvidia pro\u0161ly celn\u00edmi bari\u00e9rami a exportn\u00edmi omezen\u00edmi USA, zat\u00edmco popt\u00e1vka po \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00fdch \u010dipech, jako je H100, explodovala na \u010dern\u00e9m trhu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jedin\u00e1 jednotka dos\u00e1hla hodnoty a\u017e 200 000 juan\u016f (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 25 500 EUR).<\/p>\n

Pro um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed server\u016f vznikly stovky datov\u00fdch center. Ale nyn\u00ed, o necel\u00fdch dvan\u00e1ct m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f pozd\u011bji, le\u017e\u00ed sen v trosk\u00e1ch:\u00a0Zpr\u00e1va MIT Technology Review<\/a> odhaluje, \u017ee se \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd boom um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence zhroutil, vl\u00e1dn\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed vysychalo a nepou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e1 GPU se hromad\u00ed ve skladech, zat\u00edmco nov\u011b vybudovan\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed zapadaj\u00ed prachem.<\/p>\n

Gigantick\u00e1 nerovnov\u00e1ha<\/h3>\n

Co se pokazilo? Rychl\u00e9 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed infrastruktury um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence v \u010c\u00edn\u011b bylo p\u016fsobiv\u00e9, dokonce monolitick\u00e9 \u2013 ale trp\u011blo fat\u00e1ln\u00edm nedostatkem p\u0159edv\u00eddavosti. \u201eRostouc\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017ee, kter\u00fdm \u010del\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, jsou z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti d\u016fsledkem toho, \u017ee nezku\u0161en\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i \u2013 korporace a m\u00edstn\u00ed samospr\u00e1vy \u2013 slep\u011b naskakuj\u00ed do rozjet\u00e9ho vlaku a stav\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00e1 nejsou vhodn\u00e1 pro dne\u0161n\u00ed pot\u0159eby,\u201c \u0159ekl Jimmy Goodrich, technologick\u00fd konzultant spole\u010dnosti RAND Corporation, MIT. M\u00edsto chytr\u00e9 koordinace popt\u00e1vky a kapacity se pozornost soust\u0159edila sp\u00ed\u0161e na kvantitu ne\u017e na kvalitu.<\/p>\n

Mnoho datov\u00fdch center bylo postaveno bezohledn\u00fdm tempem bez zohledn\u011bn\u00ed specifick\u00fdch po\u017eadavk\u016f na \u0161kolen\u00ed (zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed dat) a inferenci (zjednodu\u0161en\u00ed dat) \u2013 dva pil\u00ed\u0159e hlubok\u00e9ho u\u010den\u00ed, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 hardwarov\u00e9 po\u017eadavky. V\u00fdsledek? Mno\u017estv\u00ed v\u00fdkonn\u00fdch GPU ur\u010den\u00fdch pro tr\u00e9ninkovou f\u00e1zi, zat\u00edmco inferen\u010dn\u00ed schopnosti byly zanedb\u00e1ny. Gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel Alibaba Eddie Wu to vyj\u00e1d\u0159il stru\u010dn\u011b: \u201eNafukuje se tady obrovsk\u00e1 bublina,\u201c jak uvedl\u00a0Barron\u2019s<\/a>\u00a0.<\/p>\n

Dotace m\u00edsto inovac\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Ale je to je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce p\u0159ita\u017een\u00e9 za vlasy: Podle MIT a zasv\u011bcenc\u016f z oboru mnoho spole\u010dnost\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 datov\u00e1 centra AI jako kryt\u00ed k z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edch v\u00fdhod \u2013 a\u0165 u\u017e jde o dotovanou zelenou energii, levnou p\u016fdu nebo da\u0148ov\u00e9 \u00falevy. V n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech byla elekt\u0159ina ur\u010den\u00e1 pro \u00fakoly AI se ziskem p\u0159iv\u00e1d\u011bna zp\u011bt do s\u00edt\u011b. Dal\u0161\u00ed develope\u0159i si vzali \u00fav\u011bry a pot\u00e9 nechali budovy nevyu\u017eit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

\u201eV\u011bt\u0161ina investor\u016f v \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m sektoru um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence cht\u011bla t\u011b\u017eit z \u0161t\u011bdr\u00fdch politick\u00fdch pob\u00eddek sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e d\u011blat skute\u010dnou pr\u00e1ci s um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed zpr\u00e1va. Pohled na \u010d\u00edsla podporuje toto podez\u0159en\u00ed: Ze 144 spole\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se v roce 2023 zaregistrovaly u \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy kyberprostoru, aby vyvinuly sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed velk\u00e9 jazykov\u00e9 modely (LLM), pouze asi 10 procent aktivn\u011b investovalo do sv\u00e9ho \u0161kolen\u00ed do konce roku.<\/p>\n

DeepSeek: Triumf a proklet\u00ed z\u00e1rove\u0148<\/h3>\n

Je ironi\u00ed, \u017ee za tento nepo\u0159\u00e1dek je \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zodpov\u011bdn\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 laborato\u0159 pro um\u011blou inteligenci, DeepSeek, i kdy\u017e slavila senza\u010dn\u00ed \u00fasp\u011bch. Minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc DeepSeek vyslal \u0161okov\u00e9 vlny p\u0159es Silicon Valley: Podle vlastn\u00edch benchmark\u016f jeho Large Language Model R1 p\u0159ekonal modely OpenAI, Meta a Anthropic \u2013 giganty, kte\u0159\u00ed do jeho v\u00fdvoje pumpuj\u00ed miliardy. S\u00e1m DeepSeek uvedl, \u017ee n\u00e1klady na \u0161kolen\u00ed modelu V3 \u010dinily skrovn\u00fdch 5,6 milionu dolar\u016f \u2013 zlomek \u010d\u00e1stek, kter\u00e9 spolykaly americk\u00e9 laborato\u0159e AI.<\/p>\n

A to navzdory americk\u00fdm omezen\u00edm pro polovodi\u010de, kter\u00e1 blokuj\u00ed export \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00fdch \u010dip\u016f, jako je H100 od Nvidie, do \u010c\u00edny! Tento p\u0159evrat donutil mnoho spole\u010dnost\u00ed s um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b p\u0159ehodnotit sv\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny v oblasti hardwaru a \u0161k\u00e1lov\u00e1n\u00ed. V \u010c\u00edn\u011b se v\u0161ak kv\u016fli efektivit\u011b DeepSeek drah\u00e1 a p\u0159edimenzovan\u00e1 datov\u00e1 centra zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b zbyte\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nekone\u010dn\u00fd hlad po elekt\u0159in\u011b?<\/h3>\n

Navzdory \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9mu ne\u00fasp\u011bchu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 Wall Street optimistick\u00e1 ohledn\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00ed popt\u00e1vky po elekt\u0159in\u011b. \u201ePopt\u00e1vka se ur\u010dit\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed, ale nikdo nev\u00ed, jak moc,\u201c\u00a0\u0159ekla Nikki Hsu<\/a>\u00a0, analyti\u010dka Bloomberg Intelligence. Carlos Torres Diaz z Rystad Energy dod\u00e1v\u00e1: \u201eEfektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed modely jako DeepSeeks by mohly datov\u00fdm centr\u016fm umo\u017enit jednodu\u0161e zpracov\u00e1vat v\u00edce dat.\u201c<\/p>\n

Podle Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) budou datov\u00e1 centra\u00a0do konce dek\u00e1dy<\/a>\u00a0spot\u0159ebov\u00e1vat a\u017e 9 procent americk\u00e9 elekt\u0159iny \u2014 skok ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch 1,5 procenta, poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fd energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fdmi technologiemi, jako je generativn\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence.\u00a0Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed, americk\u00fd pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd sektor spot\u0159eboval v roce 2023 kolem 26 procent elekt\u0159iny. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd debakl AI se jen m\u00e1lo zm\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Bud\u00ed\u010dek<\/h3>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd sen o AI je zjevn\u011b v trosk\u00e1ch \u2013 p\u0159ipom\u00ednka nebezpe\u010d\u00ed sp\u011bchu a humbuku. Zat\u00edmco DeepSeek dokazuje, \u017ee inovace mohou prosperovat i pod n\u00e1tlakem, kolaps infrastruktury ukazuje, jak k\u0159ehk\u00e9 takov\u00e9 vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 z\u00e1mky jsou. Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 \u0159\u00edci: pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a dota\u010dn\u00ed \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed nenahrad\u00ed tr\u017en\u011b orientovan\u00fd d\u016fvod. Sv\u011bt se d\u00edv\u00e1 \u2013 a \u010c\u00edna se nau\u010dila lekci, na kterou jen tak nezapomene, anebo ano?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Podle nov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 bublina AI v \u010c\u00edn\u011b praskat. P\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 k tomu sm\u011bs komunistick\u00e9ho \u0161patn\u00e9ho…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":75317,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3101,30,341,1299,2194],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75316"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75316\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}