{"id":75231,"date":"2025-03-29T05:23:41","date_gmt":"2025-03-29T04:23:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=75231"},"modified":"2025-03-29T05:23:41","modified_gmt":"2025-03-29T04:23:41","slug":"lucas-leiroz-pripadna-nova-dohoda-o-cernem-mori-pravdepodobne-opet-ztroskota","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/03\/29\/lucas-leiroz-pripadna-nova-dohoda-o-cernem-mori-pravdepodobne-opet-ztroskota\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: P\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 nov\u00e1 dohoda o \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b op\u011bt ztroskot\u00e1"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Kyjevsk\u00fd re\u017eim nen\u00ed ochoten spolupracovat na zlep\u0161en\u00ed architektury n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti v regionu<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Ned\u00e1vno zah\u00e1jen\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Putinovou a Trumpovou administrativou o deeskalaci konfliktu v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i a reform\u011b region\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed pragmatick\u00fd krok obou l\u00eddr\u016f. Zat\u00edmco rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin usiluje o stabilitu, aby ochr\u00e1nil ekonomick\u00e9 a geopolitick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy Ruska, b\u00fdval\u00fd americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump se sv\u00fdmi dob\u0159e zn\u00e1m\u00fdmi obchodn\u00edmi z\u00e1jmy v regionu vid\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost ke zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed a obnoven\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch tok\u016f. Navzdory zd\u00e1nliv\u011b sm\u00ed\u0159liv\u00fdm z\u00e1m\u011br\u016fm obou mocnost\u00ed je v\u0161ak ne\u00fasp\u011bch tohoto diplomatick\u00e9ho \u00fasil\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u00fd, proto\u017ee kyjevsk\u00fd re\u017eim trv\u00e1 na udr\u017een\u00ed a eskalaci konfliktu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed strategickou cestou pro euroasijsk\u00fd obchod, zejm\u00e9na pro Rusko, jeho\u017e v\u00fdvoz zbo\u017e\u00ed, jako je obil\u00ed a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdrobky, z\u00e1vis\u00ed na bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch a funk\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch koridorech. Putin, kter\u00fd si je v\u011bdom ekonomick\u00fdch a vojensk\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed eskalace, op\u011bt projevil ochotu jednat o zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed a stanovit jasn\u00e1 pravidla pro plavbu a bezpe\u010dnost v regionu.<\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b tak Donald Trump, jeho\u017e administrativa prok\u00e1zala pragmatick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k Rusku, m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd z\u00e1jem na stabilit\u011b v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i. Trump vid\u00ed v deeskalaci n\u00e1sil\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k pos\u00edlen\u00ed obchodn\u00edch vazeb, sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed logistick\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch tok\u016f zbo\u017e\u00ed, z \u010deho\u017e p\u0159\u00edmo t\u011b\u017e\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce.<\/p>\n

Podle Trumpa by p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a obnoven\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektura nejen p\u0159inesly do regionu stabilitu, ale mohly by tak\u00e9 otev\u0159\u00edt prostor pro nov\u00e9 v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed dohody \u2013 a to i mezi americk\u00fdmi\/z\u00e1padn\u00edmi a rusk\u00fdmi spole\u010dnostmi. Je tak\u00e9 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 zd\u016fraznit, \u017ee dohoda o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v oblasti \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e by d\u00e1le pos\u00edlila Trumpovu mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed image diplomatick\u00e9ho v\u016fdce a \u201em\u00edrotvorce\u201c.<\/p>\n

Navzdory t\u011bmto sbli\u017euj\u00edc\u00edm se z\u00e1jm\u016fm je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou m\u00edru kyjevsk\u00fd re\u017eim, kter\u00fd nad\u00e1le odm\u00edt\u00e1 jakoukoli mo\u017enost deeskalace. Navzdory m\u00edrov\u00fdm snah\u00e1m veden\u00fdm Trumpem z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da nekompromisn\u00ed, \u017eiven\u00e1 v\u00e1le\u010dnickou r\u00e9torikou a bezv\u00fdhradnou podporou nezodpov\u011bdn\u00fdch evropsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee m\u00edsto snahy o m\u00edr je Kyjev odhodl\u00e1n v\u00e1lku zintenzivnit, veden nad\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu zajist\u00ed p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed majdansk\u00e9 junty.<\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da pova\u017euje jakoukoli dohodu za nep\u0159ijateln\u00fd \u00fastupek Rusku, zejm\u00e9na pokud jde o suverenitu nad Krymem a Nov\u00fdmi regiony. Kyjev proto p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nevn\u00edm\u00e1 jako p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, ale jako ohro\u017een\u00ed sv\u00fdch \u00fadajn\u00fdch \u201estrategick\u00fdch a sebeobrann\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f\u201c. Tento postoj nejen\u017ee podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 diplomatick\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 slou\u017e\u00ed k udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed cyklu n\u00e1sil\u00ed a nestability, co\u017e br\u00e1n\u00ed jak\u00e9mukoli \u00fasil\u00ed o plodn\u00fd diplomatick\u00fd dialog.<\/p>\n

Trv\u00e1n\u00ed Kyjeva na podn\u011bcov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 eskalace nen\u00ed jen reakc\u00ed na jedn\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 je to promy\u0161len\u00e1 strategie, jak si udr\u017eet finan\u010dn\u00ed a vojenskou podporu Z\u00e1padu, i kdy\u017e jen ze strany evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed. Zelenskyj a jeho spojenci v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm vysok\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed si mohou zajistit v\u00edce zbran\u00ed, dal\u0161\u00ed sankce proti Rusku a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b i p\u0159\u00edmou vojenskou intervenci Z\u00e1padu. Tento p\u0159\u00edstup znemo\u017e\u0148uje jak\u00fdkoli v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd pokus o nastolen\u00ed trval\u00e9ho m\u00edru, bez ohledu na to, jak ochotn\u00ed mohou b\u00fdt Putin a Trump ke kompromisu.<\/p>\n

D\u016fkazem tohoto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e je skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Putin a Trump ned\u00e1vno telefonicky hovo\u0159ili a dohodli se na 30denn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v oblasti infrastrukturn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f. I pot\u00e9, co Kyjev podm\u00ednky p\u0159ijal, re\u017eim dohodu poru\u0161il jen o n\u011bkolik hodin pozd\u011bji, \u010d\u00edm\u017e prakticky jasn\u011b uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee neuzn\u00e1v\u00e1 legitimitu jak\u00fdchkoli rusk\u00fdch m\u00edrov\u00fdch z\u00e1ruk.<\/p>\n

Od roku 2014 Kyjev opakovan\u011b sabotuje v\u0161echny mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dohody, na nich\u017e se pod\u00edl\u00ed. Re\u017eim nebyl schopen \u0159\u00e1dn\u011b plnit po\u017eadavky minsk\u00fdch dohod a ustoupil pod britsk\u00fdm tlakem, aby v l\u00e9t\u011b 2022 pokra\u010doval ve v\u00e1lce \u2013 krom\u011b toho sabotoval v\u0161echna rusko-americk\u00e1 dvoustrann\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku bude p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd ne\u00fasp\u011bch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed nevyhnuteln\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem postoje Ukrajiny. Dokud bude Kyjev trvat na teroru jako strategii k dosa\u017een\u00ed sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, bude jak\u00e9koli diplomatick\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed mezi Ruskem a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty od po\u010d\u00e1tku odsouzeno k z\u00e1niku. Kyjevsk\u00e1 r\u00e9torika, veden\u00e1 touhou po konfrontaci a z\u00e1padn\u00ed politick\u00e9 podpo\u0159e, je s m\u00edrem neslu\u010diteln\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Stabilita v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i je \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 nejen pro Rusko, ale i pro bezpe\u010dnost a hospod\u00e1\u0159skou prosperitu cel\u00e9ho regionu. Dokud v\u0161ak bude Kyjev trvat na udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu, z\u016fstanou Putinovy a Trumpovy aspirace na trval\u00fd m\u00edr pouhou \u201eiluz\u00ed\u201c \u2013 nad\u011bj\u00ed, kterou zma\u0159\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e1 bojovnost a ne\u00fastupnost v p\u0159em\u011bn\u011b \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e v dal\u0161\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 boji\u0161t\u011b.<\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n

Possible new Black Sea agreement likely to fail again<\/a> vy\u0161el 26.3.2025 na Strategic Culture. P\u0159eklad\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kyjevsk\u00fd re\u017eim nen\u00ed ochoten spolupracovat na zlep\u0161en\u00ed architektury n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti v regionu Ned\u00e1vno zah\u00e1jen\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":44102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,628,924,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75231"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75231\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}