{"id":74639,"date":"2025-03-21T00:33:43","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T23:33:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=74639"},"modified":"2025-03-20T18:58:12","modified_gmt":"2025-03-20T17:58:12","slug":"andrew-korybko-trump-by-sel-svetu-prikladem-kdyby-uznal-krym-za-rusky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/03\/21\/andrew-korybko-trump-by-sel-svetu-prikladem-kdyby-uznal-krym-za-rusky\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Trump by \u0161el sv\u011btu p\u0159\u00edkladem, kdyby uznal Krym za rusk\u00fd"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Trump by mohl uznat Krym za rusk\u00fd nikoli proto, \u017ee by to pova\u017eoval za spr\u00e1vn\u00e9, ale jako chytr\u00fd taktick\u00fd postup, jak povzbudit Rusko k pragmatick\u00e9mu kompromisu s Kyjevem, a\u010dkoli by to i tak znamenalo zm\u011bnu politick\u00e9, ekonomick\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 situace z d\u016fvod\u016f vysv\u011btlen\u00fdch v t\u00e9to anal\u00fdze.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Semafor<\/a>\u00a0s odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na dv\u011b nejmenovan\u00e9 osoby obezn\u00e1men\u00e9 s touto z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed v pond\u011bl\u00ed exkluzivn\u011b informoval, \u017ee Trump zva\u017euje, \u017ee USA uznaj\u00ed Krym za rusk\u00fd a dokonce budou tla\u010dit na OSN, aby u\u010dinila tot\u00e9\u017e jako sou\u010d\u00e1st \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed dohody o ukon\u010den\u00ed\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu<\/a>. Pokud by tento odv\u00e1\u017en\u00fd krok u\u010dinil, \u0161el by sv\u011btu p\u0159\u00edkladem, proto\u017ee zbytek Z\u00e1padu a zejm\u00e9na zem\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu by se c\u00edtily pohodln\u011bji, kdyby n\u00e1sledovaly jeho kroky, proto\u017ee by se ji\u017e nemusely ob\u00e1vat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdch n\u00e1sledk\u016f ze strany USA.<\/p>\n

Na vysv\u011btlenou: USA by zru\u0161ily sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed sankce v\u016f\u010di Rusku, kter\u00e9 byly uvaleny v reakci na znovusjednocen\u00ed Krymu s nimi v roce 2014, na\u010de\u017e by ji\u017e neexistovala \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00e1minka pro vyhro\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sekund\u00e1rn\u00edmi sankcemi v\u016f\u010di jak\u00e9koli spole\u010dnosti na sv\u011bt\u011b, kter\u00e1 tam podnik\u00e1. Rusko by rovn\u011b\u017e mohlo podm\u00ednit p\u0159\u00edstup ostatn\u00edch zem\u00ed na tento strategicky um\u00edst\u011bn\u00fd trh t\u00edm, \u017ee i ony uznaj\u00ed tuto pozemskou realitu, jej\u00ed\u017e z\u00e1m\u011br by mohlo nazna\u010dit v budouc\u00edm hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed Valn\u00e9ho shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed OSN, kter\u00e9 by spole\u010dn\u011b sponzorovaly Rusko a USA.<\/p>\n

Pokud by si Ma\u010farsko, Slovensko a dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 EU vzali p\u0159\u00edklad z Trumpa, i kdyby to zbytek bloku st\u00e1le odm\u00edtal, mohlo by jim to poslou\u017eit jako z\u00e1klad pro odm\u00edtnut\u00ed prodlou\u017een\u00ed bruselsk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed v\u016f\u010di Rusku, i kdy\u017e jen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b. To by n\u00e1sledn\u011b prohloubilo rozpory uvnit\u0159 bloku a mo\u017en\u00e1 by to omezilo \u00fa\u010dinnost EU v tomto ohledu. Kone\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem by mohlo b\u00fdt, \u017ee EU bude bu\u010f nucena zav\u00e9st kontroverzn\u00ed jednostrann\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed k prodlou\u017een\u00ed hybridn\u00edch nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed proti Rusku, nebo kone\u010dn\u011b zm\u011bn\u00ed kurz.<\/p>\n

Je t\u0159eba zv\u00e1\u017eit i vojensk\u00e9 d\u016fsledky tohoto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, nebo\u0165 USA by v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zak\u00e1zaly Ukrajin\u011b pou\u017e\u00edt zbran\u011b k \u00fatok\u016fm proti Krymu. Rovn\u011b\u017e by byly rozhodn\u011b proti tomu, aby i ostatn\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 NATO dali Kyjevu k takov\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm zelenou. Jak\u00e9koli nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by mohly p\u0159edstavovat pro \u017eivoty Ameri\u010dan\u016f (v\u010detn\u011b jejich diplomat\u016f, pokud by byl z\u0159\u00edzen konzul\u00e1t) a tamn\u00ed investice po p\u0159ijet\u00ed tohoto rozhodnut\u00ed, by p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011b vyvolalo velmi tvrdou reakci a mo\u017en\u00e1 i sankce.<\/p>\n

Trump by mohl uznat Krym za rusk\u00fd ne proto, \u017ee by si snad myslel, \u017ee je to spr\u00e1vn\u00e9, ale jako chytr\u00e1 taktika, jak povzbudit Rusko k pragmatick\u00e9mu kompromisu s Kyjevem. Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 zd\u016fraznit, \u017ee neuva\u017euje o uzn\u00e1n\u00ed Donbasu, Chersonu nebo Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed za rusk\u00e9, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee USA by mohly zachovat sankce, kter\u00e9 na Rusko uvalily po referendu v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022, alespo\u0148 prozat\u00edm. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b by tak\u00e9 umo\u017enil Ukrajin\u011b pou\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9 i ciz\u00ed zbran\u011b k zasa\u017een\u00ed tamn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f, pokud by se n\u011bkdy obnovily nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 akce.<\/p>\n

Rusko by sice mohlo ocenit gesto dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle v podob\u011b uzn\u00e1n\u00ed Krymu za sv\u016fj, ale souhlas s t\u00edmto krokem by mohl b\u00fdt vykl\u00e1d\u00e1n tak, \u017ee Moskva ml\u010dky pova\u017euje svou kontrolu nad dal\u0161\u00edmi \u010dty\u0159mi b\u00fdval\u00fdmi ukrajinsk\u00fdmi regiony, kter\u00e9 se po referendech p\u0159ipojily k Rusku, za m\u00e9n\u011b legitimn\u00ed. Aby bylo jasno, Rusko ofici\u00e1ln\u011b pova\u017euje v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 oblasti za rovnocenn\u00e9 a ned\u00edln\u00e9 sou\u010d\u00e1sti zem\u011b, ale optika souhlasu Ruska s t\u00edm, aby s nimi USA zach\u00e1zely odd\u011blen\u011b od Krymu, by p\u0159esto mohla podn\u00edtit spekulace \u0161patn\u00fdch akt\u00e9r\u016f.<\/p>\n

Tot\u00e9\u017e by se dalo \u0159\u00edci,\u00a0pokud by Rusko souhlasilo s p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm nebo p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm<\/a>, kter\u00e9 by nevedlo k \u00fapln\u00e9mu osvobozen\u00ed t\u011bchto \u010dty\u0159 region\u016f, a t\u00edm by zachovalo jejich dal\u0161\u00ed okupaci Ukrajinou. Na obranu Ruska lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee v t\u00e9to dob\u011b je t\u0159eba pragmatick\u00fdch kompromis\u016f k \u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu prosazen\u00ed jeho\u00a0maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f<\/a>, i kdy\u017e p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm prozat\u00edm diplomatick\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky nam\u00edsto vojensk\u00fdch. I kdy\u017e s t\u00edm n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed doma i v zahrani\u010d\u00ed mohou st\u00e1le vehementn\u011b nesouhlasit, je to nakonec Putinovo rozhodnut\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Po zv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed v\u0161ech okolnost\u00ed lze argumentovat t\u00edm, \u017ee pro Rusko je lep\u0161\u00ed, kdy\u017e v r\u00e1mci do\u010dasn\u00e9ho kompromisu \u2013 a\u0165 u\u017e bude trvat jakkoli dlouho \u2013 vyu\u017eije politick\u00fdch, vojensk\u00fdch a ekonomick\u00fdch v\u00fdhod toho, \u017ee USA p\u016fjdou sv\u011btu p\u0159\u00edkladem a uznaj\u00ed Krym za rusk\u00fd, ne\u017e aby tuto zm\u011bnu hry odm\u00edtlo. To by sice zachovalo pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed okupaci \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch \u010dty\u0159 b\u00fdval\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch region\u016f Ruskem, ale mohlo by to tak\u00e9 uvolnit kreativn\u00ed diplomatickou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed t\u00e9to situace ve prosp\u011bch Ruska.<\/p>\n

Pro dopln\u011bn\u00ed, a\u010dkoli Rusko po referendu v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022 \u00fastavn\u011b uzn\u00e1v\u00e1 cel\u00e9 tyto regiony za sv\u00e9, ti za frontovou lini\u00ed na ukrajinsk\u00e9 stran\u011b se ho nemohli z\u00fa\u010dastnit. Trump by proto mohl m\u00edt n\u00e1mitky proti Putinovu po\u017eadavku, aby se Ukrajina st\u00e1hla z cel\u00fdch t\u011bchto sporn\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed a p\u0159edala je Rusku, ale z Putinova pohledu mu\u00a0jeden z \u00fastavn\u00edch dodatk\u016f<\/a>\u00a0z roku 2020 zakazuje postoupit by\u0165 jen centimetr rusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zelenskij nebo kdokoli, kdo ho vyst\u0159\u00edd\u00e1, by se ocitl v podobn\u00e9 situaci kv\u016fli\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nku 73 ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fastavy<\/a>, kter\u00fd na\u0159izuje celoukrajinsk\u00e9 referendum o zm\u011bn\u011b \u00fazem\u00ed zem\u011b. Jako celo\u017eivotn\u00ed pr\u00e1vn\u00edk, kter\u00fd nav\u00edc ukrajinskou \u00fastavu \u010detl tak podrobn\u011b, \u017ee\u00a0zjistil<\/a>, \u017ee p\u0159edseda Rady m\u011bl b\u00fdt uzn\u00e1n za legitimn\u00edho v\u016fdce zem\u011b ji\u017e po vypr\u0161en\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho mand\u00e1tu v kv\u011btnu lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku, by si toho byl Putin v\u011bdom a obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9ho procesu zm\u011bny \u00fastavy tak\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Oboj\u00ed p\u0159edstavuje v\u00e1\u017enou p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eku pro jeho maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed c\u00edl, j\u00edm\u017e je v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 uzn\u00e1n\u00ed cel\u00fdch nov\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch region\u016f, zejm\u00e9na ze strany Kyjeva, p\u0159esto by se dalo vymyslet \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, podle n\u011bho\u017e by si Rusko a Ukrajina ponechaly sv\u00e9 form\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1roky, ale dohodly by se, \u017ee tam prozat\u00edm vytvo\u0159\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed politicko-ekonomickou z\u00f3nu. To by mohlo uznat status quo, ani\u017e by jej schv\u00e1lilo, umo\u017enit voln\u00fd pohyb mezi ob\u011bma \u010d\u00e1stmi a vytvo\u0159it nezdan\u011bn\u00fd a vysoce dotovan\u00fd subregion pro usnadn\u011bn\u00ed obnoven\u00ed obchodu po skon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu.<\/p>\n

Prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm t\u011bchto prost\u0159edk\u016f by Donbas, Cherson a Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed (souhrnn\u011b \u201eNovorosie\u201c) mohly fungovat jako \u201emosty<\/a>\u201c pro sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed nejen Ruska a Ukrajiny, ale tak\u00e9 Ruska a USA prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm Ukrajiny. Jejich kone\u010dn\u00fd politick\u00fd status nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b vy\u0159e\u0161en, pokud v\u016fbec n\u011bkdy, a\u010dkoli to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt cynicky v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 pro Rusko, proto\u017ee udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00e9ho sporu by mohlo Ukrajinu na neur\u010dito udr\u017eet mimo NATO. Tento blok koneckonc\u016f nep\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1 uchaze\u010de s nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00fdmi \u00fazemn\u00edmi spory.<\/p>\n

Ukrajina by tedy bu\u010f z\u016fstala na neur\u010dito mimo NATO, nebo by musela proj\u00edt slo\u017eit\u00fdm vnitrost\u00e1tn\u00edm pr\u00e1vn\u00edm procesem ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho postoupen\u00ed t\u011bchto \u00fazem\u00ed Rusku, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by vzniklo dilema, v n\u011bm\u017e by Rusko strategicky zv\u00edt\u011bzilo tak jako tak. Vr\u00e1t\u00edme-li se zp\u011bt do sou\u010dasnosti, v\u0161e v\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00e9 by mohlo b\u00fdt uvedeno do pohybu t\u00edm, \u017ee by Trump odv\u00e1\u017en\u011b uznal Krym za rusk\u00fd, s \u010d\u00edm\u017e by Rusko vzhledem k tomu, jak by to zm\u011bnilo pravidla hry, dob\u0159e souhlasilo v\u00fdm\u011bnou za pragmatick\u00e9 kompromisy s Ukrajinou.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n

Trump Would Lead The World By Example If He Recognized Crimea As Russian<\/a> vy\u0161el 18.3.2025 na orientalreview.su. P\u0159eklad\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump by mohl uznat Krym za rusk\u00fd nikoli proto, \u017ee by to pova\u017eoval za spr\u00e1vn\u00e9,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":74640,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,751,22,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74639"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74639"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74639\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74640"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74639"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74639"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74639"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}