{"id":74524,"date":"2025-03-20T00:15:31","date_gmt":"2025-03-19T23:15:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=74524"},"modified":"2025-03-19T15:58:19","modified_gmt":"2025-03-19T14:58:19","slug":"andrew-korybko-rozsiri-rusko-svou-pozemni-kampan-do-oblasti-sumy-dnepropetrovska-anebo-charkova","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/03\/20\/andrew-korybko-rozsiri-rusko-svou-pozemni-kampan-do-oblasti-sumy-dnepropetrovska-anebo-charkova\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed Rusko svou pozemn\u00ed kampa\u0148 do oblast\u00ed Sumy, Dn\u011bpropetrovska anebo Charkova?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

To m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak zajistit demilitarizaci Ukrajiny, pokud diplomacie sel\u017ee.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Rod\u00edc\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>se\u00a0<\/span><\/a>rusko\u00a0<\/a>–\u00a0americk\u00e9\u00a0<\/a>\u201e\u00a0New\u00a0<\/a>D\u00e9tente\u00a0<\/a>\u201c nevedlo\u00a0b\u011bhem posledn\u00edho\u00a0hovoru\u00a0<\/a>Putin\u00a0<\/a>–\u00a0Trump\u00a0<\/a>k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee hork\u00e1 f\u00e1ze\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu\u00a0<\/a>pokra\u010duje, i kdy\u017e s navrhovan\u00fdm zastaven\u00edm \u00fatok\u016f na energetickou infrastrukturu, pokud s t\u00edm Kyjev souhlas\u00ed. V sou\u010dasnosti je Rusko na pokraji \u00fapln\u00e9ho\u00a0vytla\u010den\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch sil\u00a0<\/a>z rusk\u00e9 Kursk\u00e9 oblasti do ukrajinsk\u00e9 Sumsk\u00e9 oblasti, zat\u00edmco na jihoz\u00e1padn\u00ed front\u011b Donbasu se rusk\u00e9 jednotky\u00a0p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eily k bran\u00e1m Dn\u011bpropetrovsk\u00e9 oblasti\u00a0<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Putin bude brzy \u010delit osudov\u00e9 volb\u011b, bu\u010f ponechat ruskou pozemn\u00ed kampa\u0148 omezenou na ty \u010dty\u0159i b\u00fdval\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 regiony, kter\u00e9 hlasovaly pro p\u0159ipojen\u00ed k Rusku v referendu v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022, nebo ji roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it na Sumy, Dn\u011bpropetrovsk a\/nebo (op\u011bt) Charkovsk\u00e9 oblasti. Druh\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je atraktivn\u00ed, proto\u017ee by mohl Rusku umo\u017enit obej\u00edt frontovou obranu v Donbasu a\/nebo Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed, a tak prosadit sv\u016fj c\u00edl pln\u011b ovl\u00e1dnout cel\u00e9 regiony, kter\u00e9 si n\u00e1rokuje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Precedensem k tomu je\u00a0<\/span>lo\u0148sk\u00fd kv\u011btnov\u00fd n\u00e1por do Charkova\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem bylo v Donbasu dos\u00e1hnout toho, co v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd dn\u011bpropetrovsk\u00fd n\u00e1por v Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed, ale rychle uv\u00edzl na mrtv\u00e9m bod\u011b a nedos\u00e1hl zam\u00fd\u0161len\u00e9ho c\u00edle. Podm\u00ednky na boji\u0161ti se od t\u00e9 doby dost zm\u011bnily, tak\u017ee mo\u017en\u00e1 i zatla\u010den\u00ed do Sumsk\u00e9ho regionu, kter\u00fd je mnohem d\u00e1l od sporn\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed, by mohlo m\u00edt \u0161anci spustit dominov\u00fd efekt, pokud bude jen srovnateln\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b jako v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee Rusko postoup\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u011b do v\u0161ech t\u0159\u00ed \u2013 Sumsk\u00e9, Charkovsk\u00e9 a Dn\u011bpropetrovsk\u00e9 oblasti \u2013, ale pokud tak u\u010din\u00ed, nebo dokonce jen v\u00fdrazn\u011b postoup\u00ed do jedn\u00e9 z nich, riskuje, \u017ee si Trump bude\u00a0<\/span>myln\u011b myslet\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee Putin si jejich rozhovory jen z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010das a \u017ee o m\u00edr nemysl\u00ed up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b. Toto vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed by pak mohlo vyvolat p\u0159ehnanou reakci, kter\u00e1 by mohla vid\u011bt,\u00a0<\/span>jak p\u0159\u00edsn\u011b prosazuje sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed sankce\u00a0<\/span><\/a>na ruskou energetiku, aby zasadil t\u011b\u017ekou finan\u010dn\u00ed r\u00e1nu Kremlu a\/nebo zastavil vyzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e\u00a0<\/span>Zast\u00e1nci tvrd\u00e9 linie\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c by se p\u0159esto mohli pokusit p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Putina, aby to risknul za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee Trump blafuje o \u201eeskalaci k deeskalaci\u201c, pokud jejich rozhovory sel\u017eou, ale bude t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 to dot\u00e1hnout, proto\u017ee Putin je\u00a0<\/span>dokonal\u00fd pragmatik\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, a proto je odm\u00edtav\u00fd podstupovat velk\u00e1 rizika. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee by ho mohli p\u0159im\u011bt k tomu, aby jednal odv\u00e1\u017en\u011bji ne\u017e obvykle, argumentem, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed praktick\u00e9 zisky by mohly b\u00fdt to, co je nakonec nutn\u00e9 k tomu, aby Ukrajina donutila Ukrajinu k m\u00edru za podm\u00ednek Ruska, na\u010de\u017e se pak m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1hnout z t\u011bchto ostatn\u00edch region\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho motivu je tento sled ud\u00e1lost\u00ed zalo\u017een tak\u00e9 na Putinov\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee Evropan\u00e9 budou Trumpovi vzdorovat t\u00edm, \u017ee budou d\u00e1l pumpovat Ukrajinu pln\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi, i kdy\u017e\u00a0<\/span>ji USA znovu p\u0159eru\u0161\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, co\u017e by prom\u011bnilo jak\u00e9koli p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost pro Kyjev p\u0159ezbrojit se v neprosp\u011bch Ruska. Z toho by tedy mohlo plynout, \u017ee jedin\u00fdm realistick\u00fdm v\u00fdchodiskem Ruska m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed sv\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed kampan\u011b do oblast\u00ed Sumy, Dn\u011bpropetrovska a\/nebo Charkova, aby pokra\u010dovalo v demilitarizaci Ukrajiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti by to posouvalo navrhovan\u00fd c\u00edl vytvo\u0159it demilitarizovan\u00fd region \u201eTrans-Dn\u011bpr\u201c v\u00fdchodn\u011b od \u0159eky a severn\u011b od \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 si Rusko n\u00e1rokuje jako vlastn\u00ed, co\u017e bylo rozpracov\u00e1no\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. V\u0161e, co k tomuto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i vede, pova\u017euje za samoz\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee Trump nebude smyslupln\u011b \u201eeskalovat k deeskalaci\u201c, nebo \u017ee by to nebr\u00e1nilo roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fdm pozemn\u00edm kampan\u00edm Ruska a \u017ee Evropan\u00e9 tak\u00e9 nebudou konven\u010dn\u011b zasahovat. Nic z toho v\u0161ak nelze pova\u017eovat za samoz\u0159ejmost, tak\u017ee je to obrovsk\u00e9 riziko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z toho d\u016fvodu by Putin mohl prozat\u00edm pokra\u010dovat v hran\u00ed na jistotu t\u00edm, \u017ee ponech\u00e1 ruskou pozemn\u00ed kampa\u0148 omezenou na \u010dty\u0159i b\u00fdval\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 regiony, kter\u00e9 Moskva prohla\u0161uje za sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed, i kdy\u017e mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edpad od p\u0159\u00edpadu povol\u00ed postup do sousedn\u00edch region\u016f v mal\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku. Ty by mohly b\u00fdt schv\u00e1leny, aby pron\u00e1sledovaly p\u0159e\u0161kolen\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f do jejich dal\u0161\u00edch hlavn\u00edch opevn\u011bn\u00ed v Sumsk\u00fdch, Dn\u011bpropetrovsk\u00fdch a\/nebo Charkovsk\u00fdch oblastech, aby dos\u00e1hli v\u00fdhody Ruska, ale prozat\u00edm bez v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9ho obl\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto oblast\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00da\u010delem by mohlo b\u00fdt signalizovat ruskou pozemn\u00ed eskala\u010dn\u00ed dominanci, aby Trump ud\u011blal v\u0161e, co je v jeho sil\u00e1ch, aby donutil Ukrajinu k \u00fastupk\u016fm, aby se vyhnul \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed eskalaci, kterou by jinak mohl podstoupit, aby si \u201ezachr\u00e1nil tv\u00e1\u0159\u201c, pokud Rusko dos\u00e1hne pr\u016flomu a vyraz\u00ed na z\u00e1pad. Tento druh \u201egesta dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle\u201c by se li\u0161il od p\u0159edchoz\u00edch v tom smyslu, \u017ee Rusko by pokra\u010dovalo v postupu p\u0159i vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, m\u00edsto aby se st\u00e1hlo jako d\u0159\u00edve, aby dos\u00e1hlo dohody.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto by Rusko tak\u00e9 uplatnilo sebeovl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee by pln\u011b nevyu\u017eilo sv\u00e9 v\u00fdhody, proto\u017ee by to mohlo vyvolat p\u0159ehnanou reakci ze strany USA, kter\u00e1 by mohla nebezpe\u010dn\u011b zkomplikovat m\u00edrov\u00fd proces. Dokud budou rusk\u00e9 z\u00e1m\u011bry sd\u011bleny USA p\u0159edem, jak\u00e1koli eskalace by m\u011bla z\u016fstat zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e1. Tento p\u0159\u00edstup by st\u00e1le znamenal ur\u010dit\u00e1 rizika, ale\u00a0<\/span>typicky opatrn\u00fd Putin\u00a0<\/span><\/a>by se mohl c\u00edtit dostate\u010dn\u011b pohodln\u011b s jejich sn\u00ed\u017een\u00fdmi \u0161ancemi na to, aby dosp\u011bl k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee p\u0159\u00ednosy, kter\u00e9 mohou potenci\u00e1ln\u011b zm\u011bnit hru, za to stoj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

To m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak zajistit demilitarizaci Ukrajiny, pokud diplomacie sel\u017ee. Rod\u00edc\u00ed\u00a0se\u00a0rusko\u00a0–\u00a0americk\u00e9\u00a0\u201e\u00a0New\u00a0D\u00e9tente\u00a0\u201c nevedlo\u00a0b\u011bhem posledn\u00edho\u00a0hovoru\u00a0Putin\u00a0–\u00a0Trump\u00a0k…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62300,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74524"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74524"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74524\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":74525,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74524\/revisions\/74525"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62300"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}