{"id":74450,"date":"2025-03-19T00:27:22","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T23:27:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=74450"},"modified":"2025-03-18T19:03:50","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T18:03:50","slug":"uriel-araujo-posun-armenie-smerem-na-zapad-chybny-krok-na-kavkaze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/03\/19\/uriel-araujo-posun-armenie-smerem-na-zapad-chybny-krok-na-kavkaze\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Posun Arm\u00e9nie sm\u011brem na Z\u00e1pad \u2013 chybn\u00fd krok na Kavkaze?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Tvrd\u00e1 pravda je, \u017ee Kavkaz neodm\u011b\u0148uje rigidn\u00ed spojenectv\u00ed. Jak ukazuje spor \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu s Ruskem, dokonce i bl\u00edzc\u00ed partne\u0159i (jakkoli je toto partnerstv\u00ed slo\u017eit\u00e9) se mohou st\u0159etnout, ani\u017e by se postavilo veden\u00ed. Budoucnost Arm\u00e9nie nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve v\u00fdb\u011bru t\u00e1bora, ale ve zvl\u00e1dnut\u00ed um\u011bn\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

V posledn\u00edch letech se Arm\u00e9nie neust\u00e1le p\u0159ibli\u017euje k Evropsk\u00e9 unii (EU) a NATO, co\u017e je posun, kter\u00fd zvedl obo\u010d\u00ed v regionu dlouho definovan\u00e9m choulostiv\u00fdmi akty geopolitick\u00e9ho vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed. Za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto roku podepsal arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Ararat Mirzoyan\u00a0Chartu o strategick\u00e9m partnerstv\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0s b\u00fdval\u00fdm ministrem zahrani\u010d\u00ed USA Antonym Blinkenem,\u00a0co\u017e je podce\u0148ovan\u00fd v\u00fdvoj .<\/span><\/p>\n

Sign\u00e1ly premi\u00e9ra Nikola Pa\u0161injana o \u00famyslu usilovat o \u010dlenstv\u00ed v EU a jeho rozhodnut\u00ed distancovat Arm\u00e9nii od Ruskem veden\u00e9 Organizace smlouvy o kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti (CSTO) nav\u00edc p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed odv\u00e1\u017en\u00fd kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd bod. Mezit\u00edm za hranicemi \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n zost\u0159il svou kritiku Ruska po tragick\u00e9m sest\u0159elen\u00ed letadla Azerbaijan Airlines v prosinci 2024, kter\u00e9 n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159ipisuj\u00ed rusk\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obran\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Baku hlasit\u011b kritizovalo Moskvu za hav\u00e1rii letadla Azerbaijan Airlines v prosinci 2024, kter\u00e1 si vy\u017e\u00e1dala 38 ob\u011bt\u00ed pot\u00e9, co letadlo vybo\u010dilo z kurzu a bylo zast\u0159eleno pobl\u00ed\u017e Grozn\u00e9ho. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f, poukazuj\u00ed na ruskou protivzdu\u0161nou obranu s odkazem na bl\u00edzkost letadla k v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b a zpr\u00e1vy o aktivit\u011b ukrajinsk\u00fdch dron\u016f, kter\u00e9 mohly vyvolat nerv\u00f3zn\u00ed reakci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Snaha \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu o odpov\u011bdnost je pochopiteln\u00e1, ale incident tak\u00e9 odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed chaos regionu zachycen\u00e9ho p\u0159el\u00e9v\u00e1n\u00edm ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu, kde nelze snadno p\u0159i\u0159adit vinu bez rizika eskalace. Je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee i Baku prozat\u00edm vyva\u017euje sv\u00e9 rozho\u0159\u010den\u00ed pragmatick\u00fdm postojem, zachov\u00e1n\u00edm vazeb s Ruskem, Tureckem a Z\u00e1padem, aby si udr\u017eelo sv\u016fj vliv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento v\u00fdvoj podtrhuje turbulentn\u00ed moment na ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze, kde arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed na z\u00e1pad nemus\u00ed zajistit bezpe\u010dnost nebo prosperitu, v jakou jej\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i doufaj\u00ed \u2013 a m\u00edsto toho by mohl podkopat jej\u00ed strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arm\u00e9nsk\u00e1 frustrace z Ruska m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 d\u016fvody (a\u0165 u\u017e dob\u0159e opodstatn\u011bn\u00e9 nebo ne), kter\u00e9 jsou chyt\u0159e vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny proz\u00e1padn\u00edmi elitami. Nap\u0159\u00edklad frustrace Arm\u00e9nie z Ruska pramen\u00ed z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti ze ztr\u00e1ty N\u00e1horn\u00edho Karabachu v roce 2023, co\u017e je por\u00e1\u017eka, kterou mnoz\u00ed v Jerevanu p\u0159ipisuj\u00ed \u00fadajn\u00e9 ne\u010dinnosti Moskvy navzdory p\u0159\u00edtomnosti rusk\u00fdch m\u00edrov\u00fdch sil. Realita je v\u0161ak m\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159\u00edmo\u010dar\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dalohou Ruska bylo sledovat p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, nikoli vojensky zasahovat \u2013 co\u017e je mand\u00e1t omezen\u00fd dohodou o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed z roku 2020 a jeho vlastn\u00edmi strategick\u00fdmi kalkulacemi uprost\u0159ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu. Ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159evaha \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu, podpo\u0159en\u00e1 tureck\u00fdmi bezpilotn\u00edmi letouny a l\u00e9ty p\u0159\u00edprav (plus\u00a0<\/span>podpora Izraele<\/span><\/a>\u00a0), pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159ed\u010dila jakoukoli realistickou ruskou reakci s v\u00fdjimkou tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky, na kterou Moskva nem\u011bla chu\u0165.<\/span><\/p>\n

Obr\u00e1cen\u00ed na Z\u00e1pad \u2013 symbolizovan\u00e9 novou \u201echartou strategick\u00e9ho partnerstv\u00ed\u201c se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty v lednu 2025 a rostouc\u00ed anga\u017eovanost EU \u2013 se n\u011bkter\u00fdm zd\u00e1 jako p\u0159irozen\u00e1 protiv\u00e1ha. Je v\u0161ak tento posun pragmatick\u00fdm krokem, nebo hazardem, kter\u00fd ignoruje jedine\u010dn\u00e9 postaven\u00ed Arm\u00e9nie?<\/span><\/p>\n

Ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz je k\u0159i\u017eovatkou soupe\u0159\u00edc\u00edch mocnost\u00ed: Ruska na severu, Turecka a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu na v\u00fdchod\u011b a z\u00e1pad\u011b a \u00cdr\u00e1nu na jihu. Pro Arm\u00e9nii, mal\u00fd vnitrozemsk\u00fd n\u00e1rod s histori\u00ed konflikt\u016f, p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed \u010dasto z\u00e1viselo na tom, jak se v t\u011bchto rivalit\u00e1ch orientovat, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e na \u201evyb\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed si stran\u201c. Pln\u00e9 p\u0159ijet\u00ed NATO a EU riskuje, \u017ee si odciz\u00ed nejen Rusko \u2013 kter\u00e9 je v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm a vojensk\u00fdm hr\u00e1\u010dem v regionu a historick\u00fdm partnerem \u2013, ale tak\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1n, souseda s vlastn\u00edmi slo\u017eit\u00fdmi vazbami na Arm\u00e9nii. Teher\u00e1n historicky pova\u017eoval Arm\u00e9nii za n\u00e1razn\u00edk proti tureck\u00e9mu a \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu vlivu; Arm\u00e9nie p\u0159ipojen\u00e1 k NATO by mohla tento vztah naru\u0161it, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by Jerevan z\u016fstal izolovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdy jindy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc, sliby Z\u00e1padu p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed s prov\u00e1zky. \u010clenstv\u00ed v NATO, i kdyby bylo dosa\u017eiteln\u00e9, by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zat\u00e1hlo Arm\u00e9nii do \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch konflikt\u016f \u2013 vzpome\u0148me na Ukrajinu nebo nap\u011bt\u00ed v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i \u2013 na hony vzd\u00e1len\u00fdch jej\u00edm bezprost\u0159edn\u00edm obav\u00e1m. Ekonomick\u00e9 pob\u00eddky EU, i kdy\u017e jsou p\u0159ita\u017eliv\u00e9, by se mohly st\u0159etnout s hlubok\u00fdmi obchodn\u00edmi vazbami Arm\u00e9nie s Euroasijskou hospod\u00e1\u0159skou uni\u00ed (EAEU), kde je Rusko kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm hr\u00e1\u010dem. Naru\u0161en\u00ed t\u011bchto vazeb by mohlo destabilizovat ekonomiku, kter\u00e1 je ji\u017e tak zasa\u017eena konflikty a vys\u00eddlen\u00edm. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed podpora se tak\u00e9 uk\u00e1zala jako nest\u00e1l\u00e1; nehledejte nic jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e Gruzii, kde se aspirace EU setkaly s dom\u00e1c\u00edmi nepokoji a vla\u017enou podporou Bruselu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cel\u00e1 af\u00e9ra Ukrajiny sama o sob\u011b by ve skute\u010dnosti m\u011bla b\u00fdt pou\u010den\u00edm pro ka\u017ed\u00e9ho, kdo si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad veden\u00fd USA je spolehliv\u00fdm spojencem. Sta\u010d\u00ed se pod\u00edvat na Zelensk\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed to porovnejte s p\u0159\u00edstupem \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu. Je pravda, jak bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno, \u017ee Baku hlasit\u011b kritizovalo Moskvu za zm\u00edn\u011bnou hav\u00e1rii letadla, p\u0159i n\u00ed\u017e zahynulo 38 lid\u00ed. \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n zpochyb\u0148uje rusk\u00e9 zach\u00e1zen\u00ed se sv\u00fdm vzdu\u0161n\u00fdm prostorem uprost\u0159ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu: prezident Ilham Alijev po\u017eadoval odpov\u011bdnost, co\u017e n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed interpretovali jako r\u00e9torick\u00fd sign\u00e1l ochoty postavit se mocn\u00e9mu sousedovi.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto se \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n nehrnul do z\u00e1padn\u00edch zbran\u00ed. M\u00edsto toho st\u00e1le zachov\u00e1v\u00e1 pragmatick\u00fd postoj a vyva\u017euje vztahy s Ruskem, Tureckem a Z\u00e1padem, aby maximalizoval sv\u016fj vliv. Tato mnohostrann\u00e1 orientace pos\u00edlila pozici \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu po N\u00e1horn\u00edm Karabachu a umo\u017enila mu prosadit se bez p\u00e1len\u00ed most\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arm\u00e9nie by se z toho mohla pou\u010dit. Nezarovn\u00e1n\u00ed nebo v\u00edcen\u00e1sobn\u00e9 zarovn\u00e1n\u00ed nen\u00ed o neutralit\u011b samo o sob\u011b \u2013 jde o flexibilitu. P\u011bstov\u00e1n\u00edm funk\u010dn\u00edch vztah\u016f s Ruskem, \u00cdr\u00e1nem a dal\u0161\u00edmi hr\u00e1\u010di spolu se selektivn\u00edm zapojen\u00edm Z\u00e1padu by se Arm\u00e9nie mohla vydat na odoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cestu. \u201eOdvol\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c historick\u00e9ho partnera a velmoci, jako je Rusko, stejn\u011b jako jeho bl\u00edzkost a vliv, nen\u00ed v\u016fbec re\u00e1ln\u00e9. Z\u00e1pad by tak\u00e9 nem\u011bl b\u00fdt vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako v\u0161el\u00e9k \u2013 jeho vypr\u00e1v\u011bn\u00ed a propaganda obvykle stav\u00ed Rusko do role absolutn\u00edho padoucha, zat\u00edmco p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed vlastn\u00ed nekonzistentn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky Z\u00e1padu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko se v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch okam\u017eic\u00edch uk\u00e1zalo jako cenn\u00fd spojenec Arm\u00e9nie. B\u011bhem 90. let poskytla Moskva kritickou vojenskou podporu uprost\u0159ed prvn\u00ed v\u00e1lky v N\u00e1horn\u00edm Karabachu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e pomohla Arm\u00e9nii zajistit brzk\u00e9 zisky. Ned\u00e1vno p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed z roku 2020 zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e9 Ruskem zastavilo postup \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu a zachr\u00e1nilo arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 \u017eivoty a \u00fazem\u00ed v zoufal\u00e9 chv\u00edli. Ekonomicky z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 Moskva, abych tak \u0159ekl, z\u00e1chrann\u00fdm lanem, kter\u00e9 Arm\u00e9nii nab\u00edz\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k Euroasijsk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 unii a st\u00e1l\u00fd tok remitenc\u00ed od arm\u00e9nsk\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f v Rusku.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ita\u017elivost NATO a EU je jasn\u00e1: bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky, ekonomick\u00e1 pomoc, pocit soun\u00e1le\u017eitosti s \u201edemokratick\u00fdm sv\u011btem\u201c. Ale pro Arm\u00e9nii, kter\u00e1 se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v nestabiln\u00edm regionu, mohou n\u00e1klady na p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00ed p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017eit p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9 p\u0159\u00ednosy. Chybn\u00fd krok sm\u011brem k Z\u00e1padu by mohl odcizit m\u00edstn\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010de a povzbudit \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, kter\u00fd ji\u017e prok\u00e1zal svou vojenskou v\u00fdhodu. Sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e pron\u00e1sledov\u00e1n\u00ed jednostrann\u00e9ho pivota by Arm\u00e9nie mohla naj\u00edt s\u00edlu v hran\u00ed dlouh\u00e9 hry \u2013 vyu\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 polohy k otev\u0159en\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdch dve\u0159\u00ed, nejen jedn\u011bch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tvrd\u00e1 pravda je, \u017ee Kavkaz neodm\u011b\u0148uje rigidn\u00ed spojenectv\u00ed. Jak ukazuje spor \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu s Ruskem, dokonce i bl\u00edzc\u00ed partne\u0159i (jakkoli je toto partnerstv\u00ed slo\u017eit\u00e9) se mohou st\u0159etnout, ani\u017e by se postavilo veden\u00ed. Budoucnost Arm\u00e9nie nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve v\u00fdb\u011bru t\u00e1bora, ale ve zvl\u00e1dnut\u00ed um\u011bn\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hy. Krom\u011b pasti mentality studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky je vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed sv\u011bt o\u00a0<\/span>nesouladu a mnohostrannosti<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, jak uk\u00e1zal glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD<\/a>, antropologick\u00fd v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed a etnick\u00e9 konflikty<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tvrd\u00e1 pravda je, \u017ee Kavkaz neodm\u011b\u0148uje rigidn\u00ed spojenectv\u00ed. Jak ukazuje spor \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu s Ruskem, dokonce…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":74451,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1730,2181,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74450"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74450\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74451"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}