{"id":74403,"date":"2025-03-18T13:52:47","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T12:52:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=74403"},"modified":"2025-03-18T13:52:47","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T12:52:47","slug":"michael-svatos-general-gerasimov-analyza-ii-cast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/03\/18\/michael-svatos-general-gerasimov-analyza-ii-cast\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: Gener\u00e1l Gerasimov, anal\u00fdza II. \u010d\u00e1st"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdzy:<\/a><\/p>\n

N\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu vid\u00ed do budoucnosti v\u00fdvoje v\u00e1lky na boji\u0161ti, proto\u017ee v\u00ed jak\u00e9 jednotky a jak\u00e9 zbran\u011b budou v jak\u00e9m \u010dase k dispozici. Typick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad je spor n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edka gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu Rud\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy mar\u0161\u00e1la \u0160apo\u0161nikova se Stalinem na podzim 1941. Stalin si byl nejist\u00fd, zda ubr\u00e1n\u00ed Moskvu, a m\u00e1lem ji za\u010dal evakuovat. \u0160apo\u0161nikov mu v\u0161ak sv\u00fdm typicky flegmatick\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem vysv\u011btlil, \u017ee nov\u00e9 divize doraz\u00ed k Moskv\u011b p\u0159esn\u011b podle jeho harmonogramu, a vojsk i zbran\u00ed bude nejen k obran\u011b Moskvy dost. Obdobn\u011b, nebo je\u0161t\u011b mo\u017en\u00e1 mnohem l\u00e9pe vid\u011bl do v\u00fdvoje v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b koncem l\u00e9ta 2023 i gener\u00e1l Gerasimov:<\/p>\n

(8) Krok osm\u00fd:<\/p>\n

Po krachu Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho letn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy 2023, kterou rozpr\u00e1\u0161ily rusk\u00e9 elitn\u00ed jednotky u\u0161et\u0159en\u00e9 p\u0159edt\u00edm zimn\u00edch ztr\u00e1t 2022\/23 d\u00edky operac\u00edm \u017eol\u00edka Prigo\u017eina u Bachmutu, bylo jasn\u00e9, \u017ee Ukrajinc\u016fm do\u0161li i nov\u00e9 mechanizovan\u00e9 a obrn\u011bn\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy, \u010derstv\u011b vyzbrojen\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed technikou, proto\u017ee si je nechali d\u011btinsky zdecimovat v Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho sebevra\u017eedn\u00fdch zte\u010d\u00edch. Zalu\u017enyj m\u011bl na podzim 2023 probl\u00e9m, a Gerasimov to v\u011bd\u011bl. Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho star\u00e9 elitn\u00ed obrn\u011bn\u00e9 a mechanizovan\u00e9 s\u00edly na sov\u011btsk\u00e9 technice s des\u00edtkami let v\u00fdcviku a zku\u0161enost\u00ed mu zbyte\u010dn\u011b vypl\u00e1cal gener\u00e1l Hnatov v bachmutsk\u00e9m ml\u00fdnku na maso, jen aby Putina zbavil v\u011b\u010dn\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f s krimin\u00e1ln\u00edky. A nov\u00e9 velmi slab\u011b vycvi\u010den\u00e9 kohorty zelen\u00e1\u010d\u016f na z\u00e1padn\u00ed technice si Zalu\u017enyj vykrvil s\u00e1m p\u0159i sv\u00fdch nesmysln\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch na zakopanou ruskou gardu u Rabotina a jinde.<\/p>\n

Gerasimov v\u0161ak na podzim 2023 vid\u011bl je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1l, a v\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee nov\u00e1 masov\u00e1 produkce vylep\u0161en\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch dron\u016f doraz\u00ed na obou stran\u00e1ch konfliktu na boji\u0161t\u011b s p\u0159\u00edchodem jara 2024, nejd\u0159\u00edv na rusk\u00e9 stran\u011b, a ta si bude v dronech neust\u00e1le udr\u017eovat p\u0159evahu. A pochopil, \u017ee tank\u016fm a obrn\u011bn\u00fdm vozidl\u016fm rychle odzvon\u00ed, a n\u00e1stup dron\u016f je zni\u010d\u00ed. Logika velela, vrhnout rusk\u00e9 tankov\u00e9 rezervy do boje, je\u0161t\u011b d\u0159\u00edv ne\u017e na v\u00e1l\u010di\u0161t\u011b doraz\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 drony, a ani p\u0159itom ne\u010dekat, a\u017e doraz\u00ed rusk\u00e9 drony, proto\u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed obrn\u011bnce p\u0159i Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho letn\u00edch zte\u010d\u00edch, kter\u00e9 nevylet\u011bly do vzduchu na rusk\u00fdch min\u00e1ch, pohodln\u011b vy\u0159\u00eddily rusk\u00e9 bitevn\u00ed vrtuln\u00edky a protitankov\u00e9 st\u0159ely rusk\u00e9 p\u011bchoty.\u00a0Gerasimov proto s p\u0159\u00edchodem podzimu 2023 vypustil sv\u00e9ho obrn\u011bn\u00e9ho Krakena gener\u00e1la Mordvi\u010deva, a ten za\u010dal severn\u011b od Avdijivky prov\u00e1d\u011bt n\u00e1jezdy tank\u016f a obrn\u011bnc\u016f na ukrajinsk\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 pozice s nep\u0159edst\u00edran\u00fdm \u00famyslem Avdijivku obchvatem ze severu obkl\u00ed\u010dit, a k \u00fatok\u016fm p\u0159itom pou\u017e\u00edval nel\u00edtostnou metodu kucha\u0159e Prigo\u017eina, p\u0159i n\u00ed\u017e se nijak nehled\u00ed, kolik krve vyte\u010de.<\/p>\n

Gerasimov\u016fv pl\u00e1n hned od po\u010d\u00e1tku b\u011b\u017eel jako na dr\u00e1tk\u00e1ch. U\u017e prvn\u00ed \u00fatok Krakena M se zda\u0159il, a rusk\u00e9 tanky prorazily ukrajinskou obranu, a za\u010daly \u0159\u00e1dit v jej\u00edm opera\u010dn\u00edm t\u00fdlu, (cca. 5 a\u017e 10 km). Zalu\u017en\u00fd m\u011bl k dispozici dv\u011b jednoduch\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.\u00a0 Bu\u010f okam\u017eit\u011b vyklidit Avdijivku, a u\u0161et\u0159it sv\u00e9 jednotky pro boje ve druh\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 linii. A nebo na Krakena vrhnout svoji posledn\u00ed z\u00e1lohu, kter\u00e1 na Ukrajinu dorazila p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b, aby ji stihnul utratit ve sv\u00fdch letn\u00edch sebevra\u017eedn\u00fdch zte\u010d\u00edch. Zalu\u017enyj si vybral, jak jinak ne\u017e podle Gerasimova p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed, a tvrd\u011b se obo\u0159il na Krakena.\u00a0\u00a0Severn\u011b od Avdijivky se tak rozpoutala krvav\u00e1 \u0159e\u017e p\u0159esn\u011b podle Gerasimova \u00famyslu, a Kraken Mordvi\u010dev p\u0159i n\u00ed nel\u00edtostn\u011b m\u011bnil star\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 tanky, a je\u0161t\u011b star\u0161\u00ed lehk\u00e9 kolov\u00e9 obrn\u011bnce, a \u00fapln\u011b ned\u016fle\u017eitou Putinem p\u0159ed rokem zmobilizovanou p\u011bchotu, za Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho nejlep\u0161\u00ed zbran\u011b: tanky Abrams, t\u011b\u017ek\u00e1 obrn\u011bn\u00e1 vozidla Bradley, a posledn\u00ed vlnu ukrajinsk\u00fdch dobrovoln\u00edk\u016f, kter\u00e1 se rok p\u0159edt\u00edm p\u0159ihl\u00e1sila k v\u00fdcviku na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, a je\u0161t\u011b nebyla utracena.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed mainstream z bitvy na severn\u011b od Avdijivky j\u00e1sal a nad\u0161en\u011b \u0161\u00ed\u0159il videa s ho\u0159\u00edc\u00edmi lehk\u00fdmi rusk\u00fdmi obrn\u011bnci i s rozst\u0159\u00edlenou ruskou p\u011bchotou. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00e1padn\u00ed hlava p\u0159itom nepochopila matematickou logiku Gerasinovy v\u00fdm\u011bny. Gerasimov m\u011bnil sv\u00e9 lehk\u00e9 obrn\u011bnce a star\u0161\u00ed tanky, kter\u00e9 byly stejn\u011b odsouzeny ke sv\u00e9mu budouc\u00edmu ho\u0159k\u00e9mu konci v okam\u017eiku p\u0159\u00edchodu ukrajinsk\u00fdch dron\u016f na boji\u0161t\u011b, za t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 americk\u00e9 tanky a obrn\u011bnce. V\u00fdm\u011bna skon\u010dila p\u0159esn\u011b podle Gerasimov\u00fdch propo\u010dt\u016f. Tanky Abrams byly zni\u010deny, nebo se porouchaly, jak je u nich zvykem, a obrn\u011bnce Bradley nedopadly l\u00edp. Rusk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty byly sice v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, ale bylo utraceno pouze to, co by bylo s p\u0159\u00edchodem ukrajinsk\u00fdch dron\u016f za dev\u011bt m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f zni\u010deno stejn\u011b. Na konci v\u00fdm\u011bny, v lednu 2024, nezbylo Zalu\u017en\u00e9mu nic, ne\u017e vykrv\u00e1cen\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy, kter\u00e9 u\u017e nem\u011bl \u010d\u00edm nahradit, ale Mordvi\u010dev m\u011bl p\u0159esn\u011b podle Gerasimov\u00fdch propo\u010dt\u016f jen tro\u0161ku otlu\u010den\u00e9 divize. A ty se daly do pohybu, a cel\u00e9 jaro, l\u00e9to a podzim p\u0159ed sebou hnaly zbytky ukrajinsk\u00fdch tlup a\u017e k m\u011bstu Pokrovsk. P\u0159i tomto postupu vp\u0159ed Rusov\u00e9 pl\u00e1novan\u011b p\u0159esedali z lehk\u00fdch obrn\u011bnc\u016f na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 ter\u00e9nn\u00ed motocykly, \u010dty\u0159kolky a buginy, kter\u00e9 Gerasimov s p\u0159edstihem objednal. M\u00edsto tanky a d\u011bly Rusov\u00e9 za\u010dali Ukrajince hubit extr\u00e9mn\u011b p\u0159esn\u00fdmi drony, kter\u00fdch m\u011bli st\u00e1le v\u00edc a v\u00edc, p\u0159esn\u011b jak Gerasimov napl\u00e1noval. Jestli na p\u0159elomu let 2023\/24 severn\u011b od Avdijivky je\u0161t\u011b bojovala rusk\u00e1 mechanizovan\u00e1 arm\u00e1da star\u00e9ho sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho vzoru, na p\u0159elomu let 24\/25 u\u017e z n\u00ed u m\u011bsta Pokrovsk byla arm\u00e1da sou\u010dasn\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Gerasimov spr\u00e1vn\u011b v l\u00e9t\u011b 2022 pochopil, \u017ee Prigo\u017einova spot\u0159eba 300 tun velkor\u00e1\u017en\u00fdch gran\u00e1t\u016f denn\u011b, bude v l\u00e9t\u011b 2024 u\u017e nahrazena Mordvi\u010devovou spot\u0159ebou 1000 a v\u00edce dron\u016f denn\u011b, a p\u0159itom v\u00fdsledn\u00e9 huben\u00ed Ukrajinc\u016f bude mnohon\u00e1sobn\u011b efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a d\u011bsiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, a k dor\u00e1\u017een\u00ed mali\u010dk\u00fdch zbytk\u016f jejich zakopan\u00fdch drony nevyhuben\u00fdch tlup ruskou p\u011bchotou u\u017e nebude t\u0159eba ani v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch po\u010dt\u016f tank\u016f, ani obrn\u011bnc\u016f. Gerasimov proto \u00fa\u010delov\u011b ob\u011btoval sv\u00e9 obrn\u011bnce severn\u011b od Avdijevky, aby okam\u017eit\u011b a rychle rozpr\u00e1\u0161il posledn\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy, a vyhr\u00e1l tak \u010das nutn\u00fd k postupu na Pokrovsk je\u0161t\u011b d\u0159\u00edv, ne\u017e se na boji\u0161t\u011b dostanou prvn\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed po\u010dty ukrajinsk\u00fdch dron\u016f. Propo\u010det byl geni\u00e1ln\u00ed. Jestli v zim\u011b 2023 m\u011bl Kraken Mordvi\u010dev je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty ne\u017e Ukrajinci, na za\u010d\u00e1tku jara se u\u017e pom\u011br obr\u00e1til, a od l\u00e9ta kulminoval na 1 ku 3 v rusk\u00fd prosp\u011bch.<\/p>\n

(9) Krok dev\u00e1t\u00fd:<\/p>\n

V\u00fdpraskem severn\u011b u Avdijivky zdemoralizovan\u00fd Zelenskyj v \u00fanoru 2024 vykopnul Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho, proto\u017ee oby\u010dejn\u00fdm Ukrajinc\u016fm z ud\u00e1lost\u00ed roku 2023 rychle do\u0161lo, \u017ee nechat se povolat do arm\u00e1dy znamen\u00e1 rychlou a jistou smrt pod taktovkou naprosto neschopn\u00fdch a polo\u0161\u00edlen\u00fdch gener\u00e1l\u016f. Jestli p\u0159i v\u00e1lce mezi Rakouskem-Uherskem a Pruskem v roce 1866 st\u00e1lo v prusk\u00fdch bitevn\u00edch pl\u00e1nech, \u017ee plukovn\u00edk Hertwegh, velitel rakousk\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy operuj\u00edc\u00ed u N\u00e1choda je vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fd arci-idiot, a chov\u00e1 se ke sv\u00fdm voj\u00e1k\u016fm h\u016f\u0159 ne\u017e \u0159ezn\u00edk ke svin\u00edm, a \u017ee pokud na boji\u0161ti bude aspo\u0148 jedna ba\u017eina, a nebo strm\u00e1 str\u00e1\u0148, na\u017eene je tudy, sm\u011brem do prudk\u00e9ho kopce, a nebo p\u0159es hlubokou ba\u017einu, do sebevra\u017eedn\u00e9ho \u010deln\u00edho \u00fatoku, m\u00edsto, aby \u00fato\u010dil podle p\u0159edpis\u016f po h\u0159ebeni, \u010di po rovn\u00e9 pevn\u00e9 p\u016fd\u011b, a proto pru\u0161t\u00ed velitel\u00e9 maj\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u011b u N\u00e1choda man\u00e9vrovat sv\u00fdmi brig\u00e1dami tak, aby plukovn\u00edku Hertwegh usnadnili realizaci jeho \u0161\u00edlen\u00fdch n\u00e1pad\u016f. A jak bylo ps\u00e1no, ta se i stalo. Hertwegh dostal od velitele sv\u00e9ho sboru poln\u00edho zbrojmistra von Ramming von Riedkirchen rozkaz p\u0159ehradit cestu z N\u00e1choda do Vysokova, (rovina), ale kdy\u017e pochodoval na m\u00edsto ur\u010den\u00ed p\u0159es vesnici V\u00e1clavice, (rovina), zjistil, \u017ee Prusov\u00e9 zbab\u011ble zalezli na h\u0159eben kopce p\u0159ed N\u00e1chodem, 5 km napravo od m\u00edsta, kde jim m\u011bl p\u0159ehradit cestu do \u010cech, a aby se proslavil, hned na n\u011b sm\u011brem do prudk\u00e9ho stoup\u00e1n\u00ed nahnal \u010deln\u00ed zte\u010d\u00ed celou svoji brig\u00e1du vzorn\u011b se\u0159azenou do praporn\u00edch \u010dtverc\u016f, a dalekohledem z bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti pozoroval, jak to dopadne, a pak l\u00e1te\u0159il a hrozil soudy t\u011bm n\u011bkolika \u0161\u0165astlivc\u016fm, kter\u00fdm se poda\u0159ilo masakr p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt, a \u00fat\u011bkem si zachr\u00e1nit \u017eivot. (Mapa boji\u0161t\u011b Google<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Pokud by n\u011bjak\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nyn\u00ed psala manu\u00e1l na gener\u00e1la Gerasimova, musela by do n\u011bj napsat: Gerasimov \u010deln\u00ed zte\u010de na\u0159izuje pouze, aby vyhr\u00e1l \u010das, nebo rozdrtil slab\u0161\u00edho nep\u0159\u00edtele, aby ho mohl potom p\u0159i pron\u00e1sledov\u00e1n\u00ed dorazit. Gerasimov nejrad\u011bji na\u0159izuje obkli\u010dovat (Vuhledar, Avdijivka, Kurachove, Velika Novosilka, Sud\u017ea), a \u00fato\u010dit pouze na nejslab\u0161\u00ed m\u00edsta obrany, aby byla prora\u017eena s nejmen\u0161\u00edmi mo\u017en\u00fdmi ztr\u00e1tami. Jakmile Gerasimov z\u00edsk\u00e1 po\u010detn\u00ed p\u0159evahu, za\u010dne \u00fato\u010dit na cel\u00e9 front\u011b ve v\u0161ech sm\u011brech, s v\u00fdjimkou pouze toho sm\u011bru, kde se aktu\u00e1ln\u011b vyskytuj\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy. Ze v\u0161eho nejrad\u011bji v\u0161ak nech\u00e1v\u00e1 nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky vyhubit drony, raketami a d\u011bly. A m\u016f\u017eete se p\u0159itom spolehnout, \u017ee nikdy dop\u0159edu neuhodnete, co ud\u011bl\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9m p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm tahu,\u00a0 a \u017ee kdy\u017e Putin na\u0159\u00edd\u00ed, \u017ee m\u00e1 b\u00fdt n\u011bco osvobozeno do ur\u010dit\u00e9ho data, s ur\u010ditost\u00ed se t\u00edm nebude nijak zab\u00fdvat, dokud se mu to nehod\u00ed do jeho pl\u00e1n\u016f.<\/p>\n

(Dokon\u010den\u00ed asi z\u00edtra, je toho je\u0161t\u011b hodn\u011b.\u00a0Podrobn\u011b v\u0161e rozeberu ve \u010dtvrtek s Ivanem Kratochv\u00edlem na TV Bure\u0161<\/a>) D\u00edk za v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed maily, odpov\u011bd\u011bl jsem absolutn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b.<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdzy: N\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu vid\u00ed do budoucnosti v\u00fdvoje v\u00e1lky na boji\u0161ti, proto\u017ee v\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":74404,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,2543,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74403"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74403"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74403\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74404"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}