{"id":74025,"date":"2025-03-12T00:17:38","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T23:17:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=74025"},"modified":"2025-03-11T17:36:07","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T16:36:07","slug":"uriel-araujo-mnoho-povyku-pro-nic-macron-navrhl-pro-evropu-jaderny-destnik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/03\/12\/uriel-araujo-mnoho-povyku-pro-nic-macron-navrhl-pro-evropu-jaderny-destnik\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Mnoho povyku pro nic \u2013 Macron navrhl pro Evropu jadern\u00fd de\u0161tn\u00edk"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Macron\u00a0<\/span>nab\u00edz\u00ed Evrop\u011b n\u011bco, co nemus\u00ed \u010delit hrozb\u011b, kter\u00e1 ve skute\u010dnosti neexistuje tak, jak ji popisuje<\/span><\/i> .<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Francouzsk\u00fd prezident Emmanuel Macron minul\u00fd t\u00fdden ozn\u00e1mil sv\u016fj z\u00e1m\u011br roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it francouzsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd \u0161t\u00edt sv\u00fdm evropsk\u00fdm partner\u016fm a nyn\u00ed se hovo\u0159\u00ed o francouzsko-britsk\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m odstra\u0161en\u00ed. N\u011bmeck\u00fd \u00fa\u0159aduj\u00edc\u00ed kancl\u00e9\u0159 Friedrich Merz vyzval Francii a Brit\u00e1nii, aby se pod\u011blily o sv\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, aby „doplnily“ (nikoli „nahradily“) americk\u00fd jadern\u00fd \u0161t\u00edt.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edpokladem je, \u017ee \u201eprorusk\u00fd\u201c Trump se chyst\u00e1 \u201eopustit\u201c Evropu a nechat ji tak zranitelnou v\u016f\u010di moskevsk\u00e9 \u201eagresi\u201c \u2013 a tak je nutn\u00e9 vybudovat alternativn\u00ed \u0161t\u00edt. Zat\u00edmco r\u016fzn\u00ed analytici a novin\u00e1\u0159i nasazuj\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 tv\u00e1\u0159e, kdy\u017e mluv\u00ed o t\u011bchto ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch, pod r\u00e9torikou cel\u00e9 vypr\u00e1v\u011bn\u00ed postr\u00e1d\u00e1 jakoukoli podstatnost, a\u017e je to k sm\u00edchu.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Poj\u010fme se kr\u00e1tce dotknout are\u00e1lu:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco situace s hranicemi skute\u010dn\u011b nen\u00ed v postsov\u011btsk\u00e9m prostoru (s \u0159adou zmrazen\u00fdch konflikt\u016f) zdaleka vy\u0159e\u0161enou z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed, Rusov\u00e9 samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nemaj\u00ed chu\u0165 \u00fato\u010dit nebo mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b \u201edob\u00fdt\u201c \u010d\u00e1sti Evropy. Cel\u00e1 krize na Ukrajin\u011b m\u00e1 ve skute\u010dnosti v\u00edce co do \u010din\u011bn\u00ed s etnokratick\u00fdmi rozpory budov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1roda v nov\u00e9m nez\u00e1visl\u00e9m st\u00e1t\u011b Ukrajina a s roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00edm NATO, co\u017e je politika odsuzovan\u00e1 takov\u00fdmi, jako byl s\u00e1m Henry Kissinger, George Kennan, a \u0159ada v\u011bdc\u016f a autorit, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddali, \u017ee by to mohlo zp\u016fsobit ukrajinskou v\u00e1lku od konce devades\u00e1t\u00fdch let.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e se Trump \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159il na jakousi \u201ereverzn\u00ed Kissingerovu\u201c strategii, aby zastavil Biden\u016fv nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup \u201edvoj\u00edho zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c (znep\u0159\u00e1telen\u00ed si \u010c\u00edny i Ruska sou\u010dasn\u011b), st\u011b\u017e\u00ed je proMoskva v jin\u00e9m smyslu, ne\u017e aby se vyhnul eskalaci. Nav\u00edc jeho r\u00e9torick\u00e9 \u00fatoky na NATO maj\u00ed v\u00edce spole\u010dn\u00e9ho se sd\u00edlen\u00edm z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee ne\u017e s \u201eukon\u010den\u00edm\u201c Aliance.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Pravda je takov\u00e1, \u017ee Evropa se pustila do americk\u00e9 z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 opot\u0159ebovac\u00ed v\u00e1lky a nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00fd Washington ustupuje ze samotn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, zmaten\u00ed Evropan\u00e9 nev\u011bd\u00ed, co d\u011blat. Nyn\u00ed se poj\u010fme pono\u0159it do my\u0161lenky evropsk\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed, jak ji navrhuje Macron.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Evropa z\u016fstala pod k\u0159\u00eddly Washingtonu dostate\u010dn\u011b dlouho a Trump m\u00e1 pravdu, kdy\u017e \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina zem\u00ed NATO nespl\u0148uje dohodnut\u00fd c\u00edl v\u00fddaj\u016f pou\u017e\u00edt alespo\u0148 2 procenta sv\u00e9ho HDP na vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje (co\u017e p\u0159et\u011b\u017euje USA). A nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e atlantick\u00e1 supervelmoc skute\u010dn\u011b podepisuje sv\u016fj z\u00e1m\u011br p\u0159esunout se do Pacifiku, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b se st\u00e1hnout z v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy a p\u0159esunout b\u0159emeno NATO na jeho evropsk\u00e9 spojence, mezi evropsk\u00fdmi a britsk\u00fdmi politick\u00fdmi elitami je pl\u00e1\u010d a sk\u0159\u00edp\u011bn\u00ed zub\u016f.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e9 mocnosti dnes prost\u011b nejsou t\u00edm, \u010d\u00edm b\u00fdvaly. Vezm\u011bme si nap\u0159\u00edklad Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed: m\u016f\u017ee dokonce postr\u00e1dat kapacitu k udr\u017een\u00ed vlastn\u00edho jadern\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu bez americk\u00e9 pomoci, jak varovali odborn\u00edci, v souvislosti s Trumpov\u00fdmi hrozbami \u201ep\u0159esun b\u0159emene\u201c, \u017ee \u201eopust\u00ed\u201c nebo nech\u00e1 americk\u00e9 transatlantick\u00e9 spojence na vlastn\u00ed p\u011bst. V lednu lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku britsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 st\u0159ela \u201eTrident\u201c ostudn\u011b selhala (podruh\u00e9) p\u0159i zku\u0161ebn\u00edm startu, co\u017e vedlo ke spekulac\u00edm o realit\u011b britsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho odstra\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Zkr\u00e1tka Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e a Lond\u00fdn jsou jedin\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 mocnosti v Evrop\u011b \u2013 a nen\u00ed v\u0161ak jasn\u00e9, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry by byly schopny nahradit takzvan\u00fd americk\u00fd \u201ejadern\u00fd de\u0161tn\u00edk\u201c.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Podle Astrid Chevreuil (hostuj\u00edc\u00ed \u010dlenka programu Evropa, Rusko a Eurasie v Centru pro strategick\u00e1 a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed studia \u2013 CSIS \u2013 ve Washingtonu, DC) a Doreen Horschig (pracovnice z Projektu jadern\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f v CSIS) v tom existuj\u00ed \u201ev\u00fdznamn\u00e9 strategick\u00e9, doktrin\u00e1ln\u00ed a logistick\u00e9 p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky\u201c. V\u00edce k v\u011bci dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed: „V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situaci jsou francouzsk\u00e9 a britsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 s\u00edly dopl\u0148kem roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed USA, ale nep\u0159edstavovaly by \u017eivotaschopn\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b n\u00e1hl\u00e9ho sta\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch sil.“ Chevreuil a Horschig o tom uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Britsk\u00fd i francouzsk\u00fd arzen\u00e1l jsou svou velikost\u00ed navr\u017eeny tak, aby reagovaly na \u00fatoky \u201ena z\u00e1klad\u011b sv\u00fdch \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f\u201c: Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 300 jadern\u00fdmi hlavicemi a Lond\u00fdn zase vlastn\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 250 (Washington m\u00e1 naopak \u201ecelkem 1 700 rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch hlavic\u201c).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b dnes ulo\u017een\u00e9 v Evrop\u011b jsou nav\u00edc \u201evzdu\u0161n\u00fdmi schopnostmi\u201c (a nikoli pozemn\u00edmi nebo n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edmi syst\u00e9my). Takovou leteckou jadernou sou\u010d\u00e1st m\u00e1 pouze Francie a \u201enahrazen\u00ed\u201c USA by vy\u017eadovalo enormn\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed evropsk\u00fdch spojenc\u016f.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Kone\u010dn\u011b, oba experti doch\u00e1zej\u00ed k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee Brit\u00e1nii a Francii chyb\u00ed jadern\u00e1 doktr\u00edna slu\u010diteln\u00e1 se samotnou my\u0161lenkou \u201eprodlou\u017eit sv\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 odstra\u0161en\u00ed um\u00edst\u011bn\u00edm sv\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v jin\u00fdch zem\u00edch\u201c. Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e se ani ne\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed skupin jadern\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO, proto\u017ee francouzsk\u00e1 doktr\u00edna \u201etrv\u00e1 na nez\u00e1vislosti sv\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve jsem psal o v\u00fdzv\u00e1ch, kter\u00fdm Evropa \u010del\u00ed, pokud jde o \u201ep\u0159ezbrojen\u00ed\u201c \u2013 sahaj\u00ed od deindustrializace po nedostatek spole\u010dn\u00e9ho pr\u00e1vn\u00edho a byrokratick\u00e9ho r\u00e1mce nebo spole\u010dn\u00e9ho obrann\u00e9ho trhu EU \u2013 podle Sophie Besch (\u010dlenka Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) a Maxe Bergmanna (b\u00fdval\u00e9ho \u010dlena \u0161t\u00e1bu strategick\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed USA a \u0159editele Centra pro studium Eurasie).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Je tak\u00e9 t\u0159eba m\u00edt na pam\u011bti, \u017ee vztah Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ee k NATO je p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm historicky slo\u017eit\u00fd. Za vl\u00e1dy De Gaulla Francie v roce 1966 vystoupila z integrovan\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 struktury organizace a dokonce vyhostila v\u0161echna jej\u00ed velitelstv\u00ed a jednotky na francouzsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed. Byl to francouzsk\u00fd prezident Nicolas Sarkozy, kdo definitivn\u011b ukon\u010dil pa\u0159\u00ed\u017esk\u00e9 \u201eodcizen\u00ed\u201c NATO teprve v roce 2009 \u2013 tak\u017ee Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei trvalo 43 let, ne\u017e zm\u011bnila sv\u016fj kurz. Jak bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno, Francie se dodnes nevzdala \u201ejadern\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti\u201c v\u016f\u010di NATO. Je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 zm\u011bnit v\u011bci p\u0159es noc.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b francouzsk\u00fdch ambic\u00ed pomineme-li francouzsk\u00e9 ambice, sta\u010d\u00ed letm\u00fd pohled na Afriku, abychom uk\u00e1zali, jak moc je dnes Francie upadaj\u00edc\u00ed mocnost\u00ed: sta\u010d\u00ed vz\u00edt v \u00favahu francouzsk\u00e9 ne\u00fasp\u011bchy v \u010cadu, Nigeru, Mali a jinde \u2013 francouzsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da byla v podstat\u011b vyhozena ze sv\u00fdch hlavn\u00edch z\u00e1kladen na africk\u00e9m kontinentu.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b je tu tak\u00e9 prvek boje o moc. Pokud se p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00e1 americk\u00e1 supervelmoc \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b stahuje z \u0159ady kin, v\u00fdsledkem by mohlo b\u00fdt lok\u00e1ln\u00ed mocensk\u00e9 vakuum (v Evrop\u011b) a n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed herci by mohli m\u00edt chu\u0165 takovou pr\u00e1zdnotu zaplnit. I Polsko na to m\u00e1 o\u010di, jak jsem ji\u017e psal. Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st francouzsk\u00e9 r\u00e9toriky, kterou nyn\u00ed vid\u00edme, s t\u00edm hodn\u011b souvis\u00ed.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Abych to shrnul, Macron nab\u00edz\u00ed Evrop\u011b n\u011bco, co nemus\u00ed \u010delit hrozb\u011b, kter\u00e1 ve skute\u010dnosti neexistuje tak, jak ji popisuje. D\u011bl\u00e1 to kv\u016fli n\u011b\u010demu, co Trump ve skute\u010dnosti neud\u011bl\u00e1. Jinak \u0159e\u010deno, je to \u201eslova, slova, slova\u201c.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD,<\/a> antropologick\u00fd v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed a etnick\u00e9 konflikty<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Macron\u00a0nab\u00edz\u00ed Evrop\u011b n\u011bco, co nemus\u00ed \u010delit hrozb\u011b, kter\u00e1 ve skute\u010dnosti neexistuje tak, jak ji popisuje…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":53140,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1652,307],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74025"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74025"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74025\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/53140"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}