{"id":73803,"date":"2025-03-07T05:33:26","date_gmt":"2025-03-07T04:33:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=73803"},"modified":"2025-03-07T05:33:26","modified_gmt":"2025-03-07T04:33:26","slug":"jiri-paroubek-pruzkum-agentury-ipsos-byva-presny-a-nelitostny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/03\/07\/jiri-paroubek-pruzkum-agentury-ipsos-byva-presny-a-nelitostny\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Pr\u016fzkum agentury Ipsos b\u00fdv\u00e1 p\u0159esn\u00fd a nel\u00edtostn\u00fd"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

V z\u00e1v\u011bru m\u011bs\u00edce \u00fanora (ve dnech 24.-28.2.) agentura pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed Ipsos, vypracovala na z\u00e1klad\u011b pr\u016fzkumu postoj\u016f 1035 respondent\u016f v reprezentativn\u00edm vzorku \u010desk\u00e9 populace volebn\u00ed model politick\u00fdch stran.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pr\u016fzkumy agentury Ipsos dlouhodob\u011b pova\u017euji za jedny z\u00a0nejp\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch, nebo\u0165 vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z\u00a0britsk\u00e9 metodiky. A krom\u011b toho jsou tak\u00e9 \u201ebritsky\u201e seriozn\u00ed. Pr\u016fzkumy ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 prov\u00e1d\u00ed agentura Ipsos ve Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii, pat\u0159\u00ed k\u00a0t\u011bm nejp\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm. Stejn\u011b tak, jako pr\u016fzkumy v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 agentury, kter\u00e1 pracuje pro \u010ceskou televizi a kter\u00e1 vyd\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdsledky sv\u00fdch pr\u016fzkum\u016f jedenkr\u00e1t m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Podle pr\u016fzkum\u016f agentury Ipsos je nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed volebn\u00ed stranou\u00a0 hnut\u00ed ANO, jeho\u017e volebn\u00ed model odhaduje Ipsos na 36,4%. Na druh\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b je koalice SPOLU s\u00a0odhadem volebn\u00edho v\u00fdsledku 20,6%. Dal\u0161\u00ed je hnut\u00ed STAN s\u00a0v\u00fdsledkem podle volebn\u00edho modelu 10,6%. Za nimi n\u00e1sleduje SPD se 7,5%.\u00a0 Peloton stran, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed \u0161anci se s\u00a0velkou jistotou dostat do p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed sn\u011bmovny, uzav\u00edr\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b SPD. Dal\u0161\u00ed strany se pohybuj\u00ed kolem hranice 5%, anebo sp\u00ed\u0161e pod touto hranic\u00ed. Podle volebn\u00edho modelu Ipsos by Pir\u00e1ti z\u00edskali 5,1%, co\u017e p\u0159i volebn\u00edch katastrof\u00e1ch t\u00e9to strany v\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b \u010din\u00ed proniknut\u00ed Pir\u00e1t\u016f do sn\u011bmovny velmi nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdm. Pod hranic\u00ed 5% volebn\u00ed podpory, kter\u00e1 zaru\u010duje \u00fa\u010dast v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed sn\u011bmovn\u011b, se pohybuje s odhadovan\u00fdm volebn\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem kolem 4,8% Sta\u010dilo! a Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b.<\/p>\n

Ze zku\u0161enosti v\u00edm, \u017ee 4,8%, tedy odhad volebn\u00edho v\u00fdsledku t\u011bsn\u011b pod 5% hranic\u00ed, nen\u00ed zrovna nejlep\u0161\u00ed odrazov\u00fd m\u016fstek pro \u00fa\u010dast v\u00a0poslaneck\u00e9 sn\u011bmovn\u011b.\u00a0 Podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru, se p\u0159itom je\u0161t\u011b u Motorist\u016f\u00a0 pln\u011b neprojevil dopad \u201eskv\u011bl\u00e9\u201c my\u0161lenky jejich p\u0159edsedy, abychom se vr\u00e1tili k\u00a0modelu povinn\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 slu\u017eby. To je vskutku katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed informace pro mlad\u00e9 lidi, o kter\u00e9 by se tato strana cht\u011bla volebn\u011b op\u00edrat.<\/p>\n

No a Sta\u010dilo! \u010dekaj\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 dny, nebo\u0165 person\u00e1ln\u00ed posily, kter\u00e9 byly na cest\u011b, jist\u011b budou pe\u010dliv\u011b zva\u017eovat svou \u00fa\u010dast na kandid\u00e1tk\u00e1ch strany, kter\u00e1 nemus\u00ed skon\u010dit volebn\u00edm \u00fasp\u011bchem (co\u017e je p\u0159\u00edpad nap\u0159. prof. Drul\u00e1ka). Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee ani Jana Bobo\u0161\u00edkov\u00e1,\u00a0 akvizice K. Kone\u010dn\u00e9 na kandid\u00e1tku Sta\u010dilo!, politick\u00fd v\u00fdtlak t\u00e9to formace ve volb\u00e1ch nezv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed. Je to nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e1 situace, zejm\u00e9na pro KS\u010cM, resp. sp\u00ed\u0161e pro Kate\u0159inu Kone\u010dnou, kter\u00e1 pon\u011bkud propadla sekt\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed. Nam\u00edsto roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed potenci\u00e1lu sv\u00e9 formace jej z\u00fa\u017eila a odradila ty, kte\u0159\u00ed s n\u00ed cht\u011bli spolupracovat.<\/p>\n

Volebn\u00ed model politick\u00fdch stran agentury Ipsos za \u00fanor 2025<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Hnut\u00ed, strana\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Volebn\u00ed model (odhad v %)<\/strong><\/p>\n

ANO\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 36,4<\/p>\n

Spolu\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 20,6<\/p>\n

STAN\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10,6<\/p>\n

SPD\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 7,5<\/p>\n

Pir\u00e1ti\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a05,1<\/p>\n

Sta\u010dilo!\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 4,8<\/p>\n

Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a04,8<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V z\u00e1v\u011bru m\u011bs\u00edce \u00fanora (ve dnech 24.-28.2.) agentura pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed Ipsos, vypracovala na…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":55509,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,620,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73803"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73803"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73803\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55509"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}