{"id":73639,"date":"2025-03-04T00:22:54","date_gmt":"2025-03-03T23:22:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=73639"},"modified":"2025-03-03T17:47:39","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T16:47:39","slug":"jiri-paroubek-trumpova-trnita-cesta-k-miru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/03\/04\/jiri-paroubek-trumpova-trnita-cesta-k-miru\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Trumpova trnit\u00e1 cesta k m\u00edru"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Politiku na nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch \u00farovn\u00edch prov\u00e1zej\u00ed \u010dasto emoce. Velmi \u010dasto ideologick\u00e1 p\u0159edpojatost. Jedno i druh\u00e9 brzd\u00ed racionalitu \u00fasudku a rozhodnut\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 cel\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 t\u0159\u00eddy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00e1 se \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee Trump\u016fv p\u0159\u00edstup k\u00a0mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politice je inovativn\u00ed. M\u00e1 v\u00a0n\u011b\u010dem rysy imperialistick\u00e9 a v n\u011b\u010dem se projevuje a\u017e pacifisticky. Jeden i druh\u00fd sm\u011br byl p\u0159itom v\u00a0americk\u00e9 politice v\u017edy obsa\u017een. Jeden z\u00a0prvn\u00edch americk\u00fdch prezident\u016f John Quincy Adams varoval p\u0159ed poku\u0161en\u00edm Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f bojovat proti \u201eoblud\u00e1m\u201c, kter\u00e9 se vyskytovaly (a vyskytuj\u00ed) v\u00a0cel\u00e9 \u0159ad\u011b st\u00e1t\u016f sv\u011bta.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump se do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry vrac\u00ed k\u00a0politice, kterou kdysi ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech formulovali R. Nixon a H. Kissinger. Tou z\u00e1kladn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou, kterou si kladli, bylo, pro\u010d vlastn\u011b se nedohodnout i s t\u011bmi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi protivn\u00edky na n\u011bjak\u00e9m modu vivendi. V\u00a0Nixonov\u011b \u00e9\u0159e se posunuly vztahy mezi USA a Sov\u011btsk\u00fdm svazem a USA a \u010c\u00ednou do roviny \u00a0vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0oblasti kontroly jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, ale i \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch konflikt\u016f mezi Sov\u011btsk\u00fdm svazem a \u010c\u00ednou na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b a USA na stran\u011b druh\u00e9 (ve Vietnamu a velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Indo\u010d\u00edny). V\u00a0sedmdes\u00e1t\u00fdch letech, v\u00a0jejich prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b vrcholila politika d\u00e9tente. Nixon a Kissinger a \u0159ada\u00a0 z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00fdch l\u00eddr\u016f do\u0161la k\u00a0n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 sou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00a0komunistick\u00fdmi mocnostmi. Prost\u011b, za\u010dali uplat\u0148ovat z\u00e1sady re\u00e1lpolitiky.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

O tot\u00e9\u017e se pokou\u0161\u00ed podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru i D. Trump a jeho t\u00fdm spolupracovn\u00edk\u016f. Politika roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO d\u00e1le na v\u00fdchod, p\u00e1r set kilometr\u016f od Moskvy. Nebo na Kavkaz, anebo posunut\u00edm NATO do Kazachst\u00e1nu a\u017e na hranice \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 provincie Sin-\u0165iang, je nesmysln\u00e1. NATO p\u0159i sv\u00e9m roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed o Ukrajinu narazilo na jasn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 odm\u00edtnut\u00ed, doprov\u00e1zen\u00e9 vojenskou operac\u00ed. Posu\u0148me se o t\u0159i roky zp\u00e1tky a vzpome\u0148me si, co bylo p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm rusk\u00e9 invaze na Ukrajinu. \u0160pi\u010dky NATO ale i prakticky cel\u00e1 reprezentace Z\u00e1padu (snad s\u00a0v\u00fdjimkou Japonska a Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreji) horovala pro p\u0159istoupen\u00ed Ukrajiny do NATO. Dnes u\u017e tato slova sly\u0161\u00edme jen z\u00a0\u00fast politick\u00fdch extremist\u016f. Rusko se v\u00a0z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lce se Z\u00e1padem na Ukrajin\u011b nepoda\u0159ilo ani zni\u010dit, ani v\u00fdznamn\u011bji ekonomicky oslabit. Nepomohlo k\u00a0tomu ani 16 kol sankc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 vyhl\u00e1sila EU v\u016f\u010di Rusku. Tyto sankce ve sv\u00fdch d\u016fsledc\u00edch znamenaly ale siln\u00e9 dopady na ekonomiku Evropy a zj. pak pro st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropu. Sankce byly jedn\u00edm z\u00a0faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 vyvolaly i u n\u00e1s v\u00a0letech 2022 a 2023 ob\u0159\u00ed inflaci.\u00a0 Ta se bl\u00ed\u017eila v\u00a0opravdu z\u00e1kladn\u00edch druz\u00edch potravin a dal\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdrobk\u016f v\u00a0souhrnu obou let k\u00a030%. Prost\u011b, p\u0159i\u0161li jsme o levn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 suroviny, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm energetick\u00e9, ale tak\u00e9 o pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 kovy.<\/p>\n

Podle pr\u016fzkumu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed si dv\u011b t\u0159etiny obyvatel \u010ceska p\u0159ej\u00ed m\u00edr na Ukrajin\u011b i za cenu toho, \u017ee si Rusko ponech\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9 spr\u00e1v\u011b rusk\u00e9 a ruskojazy\u010dn\u00e9 regiony na jihu a v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny. A stejn\u011b tak ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve obsazen\u00fd Krym.<\/p>\n

Prezident Trump nastoupil do vlaku, kter\u00fd chce rychle dojet a\u017e do kone\u010dn\u00e9 stanice, ve kter\u00e9 se bude podepisovat m\u00edrov\u00e1 smlouva mezi Ukrajinou a Ruskem. B\u011bhem t\u00e9to cesty vlakem chce ale vy\u0159e\u0161it s Ruskem i dal\u0161\u00ed sporn\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky, kde na sebe ob\u011b zem\u011b ve sv\u011bt\u011b nar\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed. A j\u00e1 \u0159\u00edk\u00e1m, pro\u010d ne. Pokud zavl\u00e1dne na Ukrajin\u011b m\u00edr a pokud tam p\u0159estanou um\u00edrat lid\u00e9, a\u0165 u\u017e to jsou Ukrajinci, anebo Rusov\u00e9. A pokud se p\u0159estanou ni\u010dit materi\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnoty, kter\u00e9 byly na Ukrajin\u011b vytvo\u0159eny p\u0159edchoz\u00edmi generacemi, bude to jen dob\u0159e.<\/p>\n

Prost\u011b, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty maj\u00ed sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed probl\u00e9my, spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0ob\u0159\u00ed neleg\u00e1ln\u00ed migrac\u00ed do t\u00e9to zem\u011b a hospod\u00e1\u0159skou devastac\u00ed cel\u00e9 \u0159ady kdysi kvetouc\u00edch pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch region\u016f. A t\u011bmto ot\u00e1zk\u00e1m vnit\u0159n\u00ed politiky se chce prezident Trump v\u011bnovat v\u00a0prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b. Jde mu o to, zajistit zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b americk\u00e9ho obyvatelstva. Nevid\u00edm na tom nic nepochopiteln\u00e9ho, a naopak bych vid\u011bl jako racion\u00e1ln\u00ed, pokud by USA \u010dasem sni\u017eovaly sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje, nebo\u0165 ty dosahuj\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b ob\u0159\u00ed v\u00fd\u0161e p\u0159es 900 mld. ka\u017ed\u00fd rok. D. Trump mluvil tak\u00e9 o tom, \u017ee nab\u00eddne Rusku a \u010c\u00edn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f. Pokud zvl\u00e1dne situaci na Ukrajin\u011b a se sv\u00fdmi spojenci v\u00a0Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b a vytvo\u0159\u00ed podm\u00ednky pro trval\u00fd m\u00edr mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou, pro\u010d by Evropa m\u011bla d\u00e1le zbrojit. Tedy v\u00a0situaci, kdy USA, Rusov\u00e9 i \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 budou omezovat sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje. Ale tak daleko zat\u00edm nejsme.<\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty cht\u011bj\u00ed vytvo\u0159it pod veden\u00edm D. Trumpa atmosf\u00e9ru d\u016fv\u011bry ve vztaz\u00edch se sv\u00fdmi rivaly. Nyn\u00ed s\u00a0Ruskem a v\u00a0dal\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1zi se o toto z\u0159ejm\u011b pokus\u00ed i ve vztahu k\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b<\/p>\n

P\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed kreace Zelensk\u00e9ho v\u00a0B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o tom, \u017ee tento mu\u017e bude velkou p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohody. Ale bohu\u017eel touto p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou bude i v\u011bt\u0161ina evropsk\u00fdch l\u00eddr\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed bl\u00e1bol\u00ed o tom, \u017ee Rusko rozum\u00ed jenom s\u00edle. A \u017ee je pot\u0159eba zvy\u0161ovat vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje\u2026U\u017e sice nehovo\u0159\u00ed obrazn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno o v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00fdch p\u0159ehl\u00eddk\u00e1ch ukrajinsk\u00fdch vojsk na Rud\u00e9m n\u00e1m\u011bst\u00ed v\u00a0Moskv\u011b. Ale drmol\u00ed jin\u00e9 nesmysly, ze kter\u00fdch je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee se z\u00a0ni\u010deho nepou\u010dili. Donald Trump ch\u00e1pe, \u017ee mus\u00ed s\u00a0Ruskem jednat jako s\u00a0velmoc\u00ed I. t\u0159\u00eddy. A to je dob\u0159e. Evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i budou Trumpovi h\u00e1zet klacky pod nohy, ale mysl\u00edm, \u017ee veden\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f si s\u00a0d\u00edl\u010d\u00ed vzpourou evropsk\u00fdch satrap\u016f porad\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e1, \u017ee dojde k\u00a0omezen\u00ed \u010di zastaven\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 pomoci Ukrajin\u011b ze strany Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Osobn\u011b si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohou pova\u017eovat za mnohem \u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed prvek, jak donutit ukrajinsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed k\u00a0poslu\u0161nosti a k\u00a0cest\u011b k\u00a0m\u00edru, zastaven\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed. Anebo dokonce vypnut\u00ed syst\u00e9mu Starlink na Ukrajin\u011b. To by ve sv\u00fdch d\u016fsledc\u00edch znamenalo, \u017ee Ukrajina m\u00e1 sice zbran\u011b a velk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby zbran\u00ed, ale bez zpravodajsk\u00fdch a dal\u0161\u00edch informac\u00ed jejich arm\u00e1da nem\u016f\u017ee dlouho vydr\u017eet.<\/p>\n

Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed hysterie \u010desk\u00fdch politik\u016f<\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u00a0v\u00fdjimkou T. Okamury a jeho SPD nepodpo\u0159il iniciativu D. Trumpa sm\u011brem k\u00a0m\u00edru z\u00a0\u010desk\u00fdch politick\u00fdch stran nikdo. \u00datoky P. Pavla a n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f \u010desk\u00e9 pravicov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy na prezidenta spojeneck\u00fdch Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f pat\u0159\u00ed do v\u00fdrazov\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed hospod p\u00e1t\u00e9 cenov\u00e9 skupiny, kde se sch\u00e1z\u00ed \u00fapln\u00ed debilov\u00e9. \u00datoky na americk\u00e9ho prezidenta byly snad ost\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed (Barto\u0161ek, Raku\u0161an ad.), ne\u017eli jak\u00e9 kdysi volilo ve vztahu k\u00a0prezidentovi Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f p\u0159edlistopadov\u00e9 Rud\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo. Prost\u011b, Trump na\u0161im hlup\u00e1\u010dk\u016fm ve vl\u00e1dn\u00edm\u00a0 t\u00e1bo\u0159e rozkopal b\u00e1bovi\u010dky a \u0159ekl jim nahlas p\u0159ekvapivou informac\u00ed, \u017ee se sv\u011bt zm\u011bnil.<\/p>\n

Na\u0161i bul\u00edci v\u016fbec nepochopili, \u017ee konfliktem na Ukrajin\u011b se Z\u00e1pad dostal do mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch izolac\u00ed. Zem\u011b t\u0159et\u00edho sv\u011bta s\u00a0Ruskem vesele obchoduj\u00ed a udr\u017euj\u00ed vztahy. A nejen ty v\u00a0r\u00e1mci uskupen\u00ed BRICS, naopak do ur\u010dit\u00e9 izolace se dost\u00e1v\u00e1 se svou v\u00e1le\u010dnickou slovn\u00ed pyrotechnikou Evropa. L\u00edd\u0159i Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropy, vedeni Franci\u00ed a Brit\u00e1ni\u00ed,\u00a0 se budou sice do americk\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 iniciativy chv\u00edli pokou\u0161et h\u00e1zet vidle, ale d\u0159\u00edve nebo pozd\u011bji je to unav\u00ed. A d\u0159\u00edve nebo pozd\u011bji pochop\u00ed omezen\u00fd potenci\u00e1l sv\u00fdch zem\u00ed \u2013 ekonomick\u00fd, politick\u00fd i vojensk\u00fd atd.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Politiku na nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch \u00farovn\u00edch prov\u00e1zej\u00ed \u010dasto emoce. Velmi \u010dasto ideologick\u00e1 p\u0159edpojatost. Jedno i druh\u00e9 brzd\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":73343,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,565,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73639"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73639"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73639\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/73343"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73639"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73639"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73639"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}