{"id":7357,"date":"2022-01-06T07:45:50","date_gmt":"2022-01-06T06:45:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=7357"},"modified":"2022-01-06T07:45:50","modified_gmt":"2022-01-06T06:45:50","slug":"pozadi-pokus-o-statni-prevrat-v-kazachstanu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/01\/06\/pozadi-pokus-o-statni-prevrat-v-kazachstanu\/","title":{"rendered":"POZAD\u00cd: Pokus o st\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159evrat v Kazachst\u00e1nu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jak to tak stoj\u00ed, Kazachst\u00e1n se rozd\u011bluje na n\u011bkolik \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed, rozd\u011blen mezi klany – kmeny. Existuj\u00ed 3 kmeny Kazach\u016f (tzv. \u201eJuz\u201c).\u00a0„Juz“ z Nazarbajeva \/ Tokaew, kter\u00fd je u moci bez p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed od rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu, je takzvan\u00fd „st\u0159edn\u00ed“ klan \/ „st\u0159edn\u00ed Juz“.\u00a0Pak je tu „nejstar\u0161\u00ed“ klan (kter\u00fd se pova\u017euje za skute\u010dn\u00e9 vl\u00e1dce n\u00e1roda), ale jen z\u0159\u00eddka\u00a0 se \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed moci. Poch\u00e1zej\u00ed z jihu, z oblasti Schymqent a Alma-Ata (Alma-Aty), kde prob\u00edhaj\u00ed nejn\u00e1siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bitvy a protesty.\u00a0Alma-Ata je kr\u00e1sn\u00e9 m\u011bsto, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 Mnichov, p\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159ed vysok\u00fdmi horami s vlastn\u00edmi modern\u00edmi ly\u017ea\u0159sk\u00fdmi are\u00e1ly.\u00a0St\u00e1le tam \u017eije hodn\u011b Rus\u016f (asi 3,5 a\u017e 3,7 milionu v cel\u00e9m Kazachst\u00e1nu), rusk\u00fdch N\u011bmc\u016f (st\u00e1le a\u017e 150 000) a tak\u00e9 velk\u00fd po\u010det rusky mluv\u00edc\u00edch Kazach\u016f v regionu (obecn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161ina Kazach\u016f um\u00ed rusky velmi dob\u0159e, n\u011bkdy l\u00e9pe ne\u017e samotn\u00ed Rusov\u00e9 v Rusku). V hust\u011b os\u00eddlen\u00e9 oblasti kolem Alma-Aty je mnoho \u201eJuzhani\u201c (v\u011bt\u0161inou Kaza\u0161i z \u201enejstar\u0161\u00edho Juzu\u201c), mnoho v mal\u00fdch m\u011bstech a ve vesnic\u00edch, ale tak\u00e9 v metropol\u00edch, jako je Alma-Ata. A pak jsou tu takzvan\u00e9 \u201enejmen\u0161\u00ed Juz\u201c (\u201enejmlad\u0161\u00ed\u201c), kter\u00e9 jsou v z\u00e1padn\u00edm Kazachst\u00e1nu (oblast Kaspick\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a hranice s Uzbekist\u00e1nem).\u00a0V Kazachst\u00e1nu jsou bohat\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy, tamn\u00ed ropn\u00ed d\u011bln\u00edci vyd\u011bl\u00e1vaj\u00ed docela dob\u0159e, ale \u201eelita\u201c tohoto \u201enejmen\u0161\u00edho \/ nejmlad\u0161\u00edho juzu\u201c je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u00fapln\u011b vylou\u010dena z moci v Kazachst\u00e1nu a z rozhodovac\u00edch proces\u016f, a proto se c\u00edt\u00ed\u00a0 znev\u00fdhodn\u011bni.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale sv\u00e1d\u011bt v\u0161e na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed rozd\u011blen\u00ed takzvan\u00fdch \u201eJuz\u201c (t\u0159\u00ed \u201ekmen\u016f\u201c nebo \u201eklan\u016f\u201c) by tak\u00e9 nebylo \u00fapln\u011b spr\u00e1vn\u00e9.\u00a0Jedn\u00edm z d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d je mnoho lid\u00ed v Kazachst\u00e1nu nespokojeno, je inflace (glob\u00e1ln\u00ed a celosv\u011btov\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00fd probl\u00e9m, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed negativn\u00ed trend).\u00a0R\u016fst cen se samoz\u0159ejm\u011b dot\u00fdk\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pen\u011b\u017eenek b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f a n\u00edzkop\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e9ho sektoru i v\u00edced\u011btn\u00fdch rodin (a ty tradi\u010dn\u011b \u017eij\u00ed na jihu Kazachst\u00e1nu).\u00a0Od pandemie koronaviru (ale i p\u0159ed n\u00ed) sv\u011btov\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky n\u00e1sleduj\u00ed americkou centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banku a tisknou stra\u0161n\u011b moc levn\u00fdch pen\u011bz \u2013 a vypou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed je na trh. V ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku bude n\u00e1sledovat inflace \u2013 a slab\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b sv\u011bta budou zasa\u017eeny jako prvn\u00ed a tam zase ti nejslab\u0161\u00ed a nejm\u00e9n\u011b zaslou\u017eil\u00ed ob\u010dan\u00e9. Nekone\u010dn\u00e1 spir\u00e1la.<\/span><\/p>\n

A v roce 2022\/2023 se \u201ehlad\u201c ve sv\u011bt\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vr\u00e1t\u00ed a za\u010dne glob\u00e1ln\u00ed potravinov\u00e1 krize \u2013 a ta zas\u00e1hne mnoho slab\u00fdch zem\u00ed.\u00a0Vysok\u00e9 ceny energi\u00ed a plynu masivn\u011b zvy\u0161uj\u00ed ceny hnojiv a \u010dpavku, co\u017e n\u00e1sledn\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011b prodra\u017e\u00ed sklize\u0148.\u00a0Krom\u011b toho je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 m\u00e1lo hnojiv \u2013 a nejslab\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b v sou\u010dasnosti nedost\u00e1vaj\u00ed na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 hnojivo.\u00a0N\u011bmecko bude m\u00edt k dispozici o 10\u201320 % m\u00e9n\u011b hnojiv a jin\u00e9 zem\u011b a\u017e o 50 % nebo dokonce o 100 % m\u00e9n\u011b, proto\u017ee si to bu\u010f nemohou dovolit, nebo \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nejsou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale zp\u011bt ke Kazachst\u00e1nu a skute\u010dn\u00e9mu probl\u00e9mu:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Podle ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f p\u016fsob\u00ed v Kazachst\u00e1nu kolem 16 000 zahrani\u010dn\u00edch nevl\u00e1dn\u00edch organizac\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch americk\u00e9ho oligarchy a finan\u010dn\u00edka \u201emajdanu\u201c George Sorose.\u00a0Do Kazachst\u00e1nu l\u00e9ta te\u010de spousta pen\u011bz s pochybn\u00fdmi c\u00edli.\u00a0Tak\u00e9 zaj\u00edmavost: stipendium \u201eNasarbaew\u201c (tzv. prezidentsk\u00e9 stipendium) financovalo a\u017e 5000 kaza\u0161sk\u00fdch student\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b na pobyt a studium v \u200b\u200bUSA.\u00a0Nic \u0161patn\u00e9ho samo o sob\u011b, ale v dne\u0161n\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 struktu\u0159e v\u00edce ne\u017e sporn\u00e9, vezmeme-li v \u00favahu, \u017ee USA naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed prezidenty Kazachst\u00e1nu \u201eautokraty\u201c.\u00a0A nevl\u00e1dn\u00ed organizace u\u017e l\u00e9ta buduj\u00ed \u201ekorup\u010dn\u00ed\u201c image kaza\u0161sk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, co\u017e je tak\u00e9 pravda, proto\u017ee klany \/ kmeny \/ \u201eJuz\u201c \u010dasto \u201eotev\u00edraj\u00ed\u201c takzvan\u00e9 \u201esoci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdtahy\u201c za spoustu pen\u011bz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom toho: Turecko (n\u00e1sledovan\u00e9 Velkou Brit\u00e1ni\u00ed a USA) je ji\u017e asi 20 let \u010dlenem NATO a je velmi aktivn\u00ed mezi \u201eum\u00edrn\u011bn\u00fdmi\u201c islamisty a tzv. kaza\u0161sk\u00fdmi nacionalisty.\u00a0Stav\u00ed \u201e\u0161koly kor\u00e1nu\u201c a me\u0161ity za spoustu tureck\u00fdch pen\u011bz.\u00a0Samo o sob\u011b nen\u00ed nic \u0161patn\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bale pokud v\u00e1m ciz\u00ed lid\u00e9 buduj\u00ed \u0161koly kor\u00e1nu a po l\u00e9ta pos\u00edlaj\u00ed \u010detn\u00e9 im\u00e1my vy\u0161kolen\u00e9 v Turecku, m\u011blo by to b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 pova\u017eov\u00e1no za sporn\u00e9 v kontextu sou\u010dasn\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 struktury. Turecko samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nejedn\u00e1 samostatn\u011b a ani samo o vlastn\u00ed v\u016fli.\u00a0 V pozad\u00ed je Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie s jej\u00edm \u201erozd\u011bl a panuj\u201c i USA a jejich protirusk\u00e1 strategie \u201eanakonda\u201c (krok za krokem \u201eobkl\u00ed\u010dit\u201c Rusko).<\/span><\/p>\n

Ze soci\u00e1ln\u00edho a ekonomick\u00e9ho hlediska je Kazachst\u00e1n na hlavu asi o 10 % slab\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Rusko, ale st\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed st\u00e1ty b\u00fdval\u00e9ho Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu a tak\u00e9 lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e B\u011blorusko.\u00a0Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed: Rusko m\u011blo v roce 2020 HDP na obyvatele (v parit\u011b kupn\u00ed s\u00edly) kolem 28 200 USD na hlavu a rok (N\u011bmecko 54 100 USD na hlavu), Kazachst\u00e1n kolem 26 500 USD a B\u011blorusko t\u011bsn\u011b pod 20 000 USD na hlavu a rok.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed ceny \u201eplynu\u201c bylo pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bji pou\u017eito jako \u201epopul\u00e1rn\u00ed\u201c spou\u0161t\u011b\u010d proti vl\u00e1d\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zemn\u00ed plyn v Kazachst\u00e1nu je velmi levn\u00fd, l\u00e9pe \u0159e\u010deno relativn\u011b levn\u00fd.\u00a0A dokonce v\u00fdrazn\u011b levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e m\u00e1 jeho soused a nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd export\u00e9r zemn\u00edho plynu Rusko. Jen Venezuela je levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Kazachst\u00e1n.\u00a0I kdyby to byla taktick\u00e1 hloupost, ceny plynu (ne za topn\u00fd plyn, ale za kapaln\u00fd plyn \u010derpac\u00ed stanice, kter\u00fd se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v autech \/ autobusech) se m\u011bly p\u0159es noc zv\u00fd\u0161it o +50 %, m\u00edsto toho, aby byly m\u011bs\u00edce \u201espole\u010densky p\u0159ijateln\u00e9\u201c jako je to v mnoha jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed \u201eZvedat pomalu a nen\u00e1padn\u011b. Stalo se to bu\u010f z hlouposti, nebo ze zrady ve vlastn\u00edch \u0159ad\u00e1ch.\u00a0T\u00edm dostali dlouho p\u0159ipravovan\u00ed \u201edemonstranti\u201c spou\u0161\u0165, kter\u00e1 byla v m\u00e9di\u00edch a lidem p\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1na jako na st\u0159\u00edbrn\u00e9m podnose. Mo\u017en\u00e1 proto kaza\u0161sk\u00fd prezident Tokaev v\u010dera ve\u010der rezignoval na vl\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co by m\u011bl p\u0159in\u00e9st rozpad nebo destabilizace Kazachst\u00e1nu?\u00a0\u0158e\u010d je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 7000 km dlouh\u00e9 hranici mezi Kazachst\u00e1nem a Ruskem a p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm \u010c\u00ednou.\u00a0Kazachst\u00e1n soused\u00ed s \u201eujgursk\u00fdmi oblastmi\u201c \u010c\u00edny, o kter\u00fdch USA a EU tolik mluvily a kter\u00e9 jsou v sou\u010dasnosti pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za spou\u0161t\u011b\u010d \u201ediplomatick\u00fdch bojkot\u016f\u201c nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch olympijsk\u00fdch her v \u010c\u00edn\u011b.\u00a0Rusko a \u010c\u00edna v Kazachst\u00e1nu hodn\u011b investuj\u00ed.\u00a0Rusko a Kazachst\u00e1n maj\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 8 000 obchodn\u00edch podnik\u016f a spole\u010dnost\u00ed spole\u010dn\u011b \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm majetkov\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dast\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm \u010c\u00edna hodn\u011b investuje do \u201eHedv\u00e1bn\u00e9 stezky\u201c, infrastruktury, logistiky, ale i kovopr\u016fmyslu a ropy\/zemn\u00edho plynu.\u00a0\u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd prezident Si \u0164in-pching ozn\u00e1mil zah\u00e1jen\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 (strategicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9) \u201eIniciativy hedv\u00e1bn\u00e9 stezky\u201c v roce 2013 v kaza\u0161sk\u00e9m hlavn\u00edm m\u011bst\u011b Astan\u011b (nyn\u00ed Nur-Sultan) \u2013 a jihokaza\u0161sk\u00e9 metropoli Alma-At\u011b, s mnoha spole\u010dn\u00fdmi projekty z oblasti infrastruktury, pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba a logistika. A komu vad\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 „expanze“ „Iniciativy hedv\u00e1bn\u00e9 stezky“, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 \u010c\u00ednu (a tak\u00e9 p\u0159es Rusko) logisticky propojit s Evropou\/EU (bez lodn\u00edch tras kontrolovan\u00fdch USA a Velkou Brit\u00e1ni\u00ed).<\/span><\/p>\n

Mimochodem, Kaza\u0161i p\u0159ed rozpadem Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu nikdy nem\u011bli vlastn\u00ed st\u00e1t.\u00a0Byli to ko\u010dovn\u00edci, kte\u0159\u00ed se toulali step\u00ed.\u00a0Prvn\u00ed a dlouholet\u00fd prezident Kazachst\u00e1nu Nasarbajev (kter\u00fd byl jedin\u00fdm vysoce postaven\u00fdm politikem, kter\u00fd se d\u016frazn\u011b vyslovil proti rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu, kdy\u017e se Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz zhroutil) pod\u011bkoval Rusku a zejm\u00e9na Rus\u016fm za to, \u017ee to umo\u017enili Kazach\u016fm poprv\u00e9 po rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu kaza\u0161sk\u00e1 lidov\u00e1 historie zalo\u017eila sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed st\u00e1t (s mnoha \u010d\u00e1stmi zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 byly po stalet\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Rusk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e!).<\/span><\/p>\n

Dnes Kazachst\u00e1n jako st\u00e1t a Kaza\u0161i jako lid, jako st\u00e1t a jako sjednocen\u00fd n\u00e1rod stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed praktickou zkou\u0161kou – proj\u00edt nebo se rozpadnout na \u201eT\u0159i juz\u201c (mo\u017en\u00e1 v ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce).\u00a0St\u00e1t, kter\u00e9mu je pouh\u00fdch 30 let, \u010del\u00ed nejt\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed zkou\u0161ce sv\u00e9 st\u00e1tnosti.\u00a0Ot\u00e1zka budoucnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Jak to tak stoj\u00ed, Kazachst\u00e1n se rozd\u011bluje na n\u011bkolik \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed, rozd\u011blen mezi klany – kmeny….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7358,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1338,29],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7357"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7357"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7357\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7358"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7357"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7357"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7357"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}