{"id":73451,"date":"2025-03-02T00:15:02","date_gmt":"2025-03-01T23:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=73451"},"modified":"2025-03-01T13:50:09","modified_gmt":"2025-03-01T12:50:09","slug":"nato-jako-hlavni-prekazka-miru-na-ukrajine-kriticka-analyza","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/03\/02\/nato-jako-hlavni-prekazka-miru-na-ukrajine-kriticka-analyza\/","title":{"rendered":"NATO jako hlavn\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eka m\u00edru na Ukrajin\u011b: Kritick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nebylo by vlastn\u011b na\u010dase kone\u010dn\u011b rozlo\u017eit NATO, fosilii studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, a vyvinout novou, modern\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architekturu pro Evropu? Zejm\u00e9na v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b ilustruje, pro\u010d by Evropa m\u011bla udr\u017eovat konstruktivn\u00ed vztahy s Washingtonem i Moskvou.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Zapomenut\u00e1 historie konfliktu<\/span><\/h2>\n

V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 debat\u011b o ukrajinsk\u00e9m konfliktu se \u010dasto p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed jeden z\u00e1sadn\u00ed faktor: role NATO jako hybn\u00e9 s\u00edly eskalace. Zat\u00edmco Donald Trump b\u011bhem sv\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b opakovan\u011b mluvil o \u201etajn\u00e9m pl\u00e1nu\u201c na ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky, jeho t\u00fdm nyn\u00ed \u010del\u00ed slo\u017eit\u00e9 realit\u011b, v n\u00ed\u017e je transatlantick\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 aliance nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou trval\u00e9ho m\u00edrov\u00e9ho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed mainstreamov\u00e1 m\u00e9dia obvykle za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed sv\u00e9 vypr\u00e1v\u011bn\u00ed ruskou invaz\u00ed \u2013 jako by to byl v\u00fdchoz\u00ed bod konfliktu. Tento zkr\u00e1cen\u00fd popis v\u0161ak ignoruje des\u00edtky let trvaj\u00edc\u00ed historii, kter\u00e1 je pro pochopen\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situace z\u00e1sadn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po skon\u010den\u00ed studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mohlo NATO n\u00e1sledovat Var\u0161avskou smlouvu a rozpustit se. M\u00edsto toho Aliance zah\u00e1jila agresivn\u00ed expanzi na v\u00fdchod, kter\u00e1 se nakonec stala ko\u0159enem dne\u0161n\u00edho konfliktu. K tomuto roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed do\u0161lo i p\u0159es opakovan\u00e1 uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch politik\u016f Moskv\u011b, \u017ee NATO se nebude roz\u0161i\u0159ovat na v\u00fdchod.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nedodr\u017een\u00fd slib<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u201eNATO se nepohne ani o p\u00ed\u010f na v\u00fdchod\u201c \u2013 to byl slib dan\u00fd rusk\u00e9mu veden\u00ed po p\u00e1du Berl\u00ednsk\u00e9 zdi. Realita byla jin\u00e1: Polsko, Ma\u010farsko, pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a dal\u0161\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 Var\u0161avsk\u00e9 smlouvy se postupn\u011b integrovali do aliance, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se jednotky NATO, rakety a infrastruktura st\u00e1le p\u0159ibli\u017eovaly k rusk\u00fdm hranic\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00e9 je, \u017ee sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed t\u00e9to expanze na v\u00fdchod se stalo N\u011bmecko, kter\u00e9 ve 20. stolet\u00ed vedlo dv\u011b ni\u010div\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti Rusku. Z rusk\u00e9 perspektivy se to muselo jevit jako existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozba \u2013 srovnateln\u00e1 s hypotetickou situac\u00ed, kdy by Rusko vstoupilo do vojensk\u00fdch alianc\u00ed s Mexikem nebo Kubou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd komplex bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed politiky<\/span><\/h2>\n

Po rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu ztratil americk\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed apar\u00e1t \u2013 Pentagon, CIA a NSA \u2013 sv\u00e9ho \u00fahlavn\u00edho nep\u0159\u00edtele. V\u00fdsledkem bylo zoufal\u00e9 hled\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f hrozeb: nejprve \u201ev\u00e1lka proti drog\u00e1m\u201c, pot\u00e9 d\u00e9monizace b\u00fdval\u00e9ho spojence Sadd\u00e1ma Husajna a nakonec \u201ev\u00e1lka proti teroru\u201c po \u00fatoc\u00edch z 11.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale poku\u0161en\u00ed znovu prohl\u00e1sit Rusko za ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho nep\u0159\u00edtele z\u016fstalo. Hluboce zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00e9 protirusk\u00e9 n\u00e1lady v americk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti poskytly dokonalou \u017eivnou p\u016fdu pro novou studenou v\u00e1lku \u2013 a s n\u00ed i pro nov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 rozpo\u010dty a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 pravomoci bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho apar\u00e1tu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajina jako kl\u00ed\u010d k porozum\u011bn\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n

Rusko opakovan\u011b a jednozna\u010dn\u011b dalo najevo, \u017ee \u010dlenstv\u00ed Ukrajiny v NATO p\u0159edstavuje \u010dervenou linii. Kdy\u017e aliance p\u0159esto koketovala s mo\u017enost\u00ed p\u0159ijet\u00ed sousedn\u00ed zem\u011b, Moskva reagovala p\u0159esn\u011b tak, jak avizovala: invaz\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z pr\u00e1vn\u00edho hlediska se nepochybn\u011b jednalo o akt agrese. Ukrajina m\u011bla suver\u00e9nn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo vstoupit do jak\u00e9koli vojensk\u00e9 aliance podle sv\u00e9ho v\u00fdb\u011bru. Ale praktick\u00e1 realita mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed politiky se \u0159\u00edd\u00ed jin\u00fdmi z\u00e1kony. Americk\u00e9 veden\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b v\u011bd\u011blo, jakou reakci vyvol\u00e1 roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO \u2013 podobn\u011b jako by reagovaly samotn\u00e9 Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, kdyby Rusko z\u0159\u00eddilo vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny na Kub\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dilema m\u00edrov\u00e9ho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n

Toto je \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed probl\u00e9m jak\u00e9koli m\u00edrov\u00e9 iniciativy: Jak lze Rusku zaru\u010dit, \u017ee se Ukrajina nikdy nestane \u010dlenem NATO? Trumpovy sliby samy o sob\u011b nesta\u010d\u00ed \u2013 americk\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 \u010dasto dokazuje, \u017ee sliby lze poru\u0161it. Ani p\u00edsemn\u00e1 dohoda nenab\u00edz\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou jistotu, pokud ji budouc\u00ed prezident m\u016f\u017ee ignorovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedinou spolehlivou z\u00e1rukou by bylo \u00fapln\u00e9 rozpu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed NATO \u2013 krok, kter\u00fd by z\u00e1sadn\u011b zm\u011bnil vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9 hrozby. Bez NATO by nehrozilo n\u00e1hl\u00e9 p\u0159ijet\u00ed Ukrajiny nebo jin\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f k rusk\u00fdm hranic\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160ance na tak radik\u00e1ln\u00ed reorganizaci evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury jsou v\u0161ak miziv\u00e9. Vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd komplex a etablovan\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9 elity ve Washingtonu nemaj\u00ed z\u00e1jem na rozpu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed aliance, kter\u00e1 jim zaji\u0161\u0165uje moc, vliv a finan\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdhody.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dokud bude NATO nad\u00e1le existovat jako poz\u016fstatek studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 trval\u00fd m\u00edr na Ukrajin\u011b iluz\u00ed. Skute\u010dn\u00e1 v\u00fdzva pro Trumpa a budouc\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 iniciativy nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v diplomatick\u00fdch formulac\u00edch, ale v ochot\u011b zpochybnit z\u00e1kladn\u00ed struktury, kter\u00e9 konflikt umo\u017enily.<\/span><\/p>\n

Koment\u00e1\u0159 Heinze Steinera<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nebylo by vlastn\u011b na\u010dase kone\u010dn\u011b rozlo\u017eit NATO, fosilii studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, a vyvinout novou, modern\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":73452,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,565,39,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73451"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73451"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73451\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":73453,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73451\/revisions\/73453"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/73452"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}