{"id":73332,"date":"2025-02-28T00:28:15","date_gmt":"2025-02-27T23:28:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=73332"},"modified":"2025-02-27T20:13:02","modified_gmt":"2025-02-27T19:13:02","slug":"strategie-nebo-cista-show-pochybnosti-o-trumpove-mirovem-slibu-pro-ukrajinu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/02\/28\/strategie-nebo-cista-show-pochybnosti-o-trumpove-mirovem-slibu-pro-ukrajinu\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategie nebo \u010dist\u00e1 show? Pochybnosti o Trumpov\u011b m\u00edrov\u00e9m slibu pro Ukrajinu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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M\u00e1 Trump skute\u010dn\u011b pl\u00e1n pro Ukrajinu?<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Na pl\u00e1nech prezidenta Trumpa pro Ukrajinu je zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed, \u017ee nikdo po\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b nev\u00ed, co jsou za\u010d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Posledn\u00edch p\u00e1r dn\u00ed jsem se sna\u017eil pochopit, \u010deho chce dos\u00e1hnout. Ale nejsem schopen vytvo\u0159it koherentn\u00ed teorii. Jeho chov\u00e1n\u00ed je rozporupln\u00e9. Neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e1 vod\u00edtka z B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu nebo pros\u00e1kl\u00e9 informace do tisku. M\u00edsto toho je tu ob\u010das hektick\u00e1 aktivita doprov\u00e1zen\u00e1 pomp\u00e9zn\u00edmi hl\u00e1\u0161kami. Jak\u00fd je ale celkov\u00fd pl\u00e1n?<\/span><\/p>\n

Profesor Mearsheimer tak\u00e9 \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 (ve videu), \u017ee Trumpovo chov\u00e1n\u00ed ned\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl. Vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny k dohod\u011b o t\u011b\u017eb\u011b surovin nen\u00ed realistick\u00e1 strategie. Nen\u00ed ani merkantilistick\u00fd. Nen\u00ed tam co prod\u00e1vat a jakoukoli dohodu by pod tlakem oligarch\u016f zru\u0161ily soudy. Tohle prost\u011b ned\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kde je tedy d\u016fkaz, \u017ee Trump v\u016fbec m\u00e1 pl\u00e1n? Kde jsou d\u016fkazy, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u011b vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1 s Ruskem? Co p\u0159esn\u011b d\u011bl\u00e1 pro ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky, jak tvrdil?<\/span><\/p>\n

Yves Smith s odkazem na protich\u016fdn\u00e9 n\u00e1zory Briana Berletica a Johna Helmera se tak\u00e9 pt\u00e1, \u010deho se Trump vlastn\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout:<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova administrativa, kter\u00e1 nem\u00e1 jasnou p\u0159edstavu o tom, jak\u00e1 by m\u011bla b\u00fdt kone\u010dn\u00e1 hra na Ukrajin\u011b \u2013 krom\u011b toho, \u017ee dovol\u00ed Trumpovi tvrdit, \u017ee ukon\u010dil v\u00e1lku, a je tud\u00ed\u017e velk\u00fdm obchodn\u00edkem \u2013 ve v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9m nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee se zapoj\u00ed do p\u0159esn\u011b takov\u00e9ho chov\u00e1n\u00ed, p\u0159ed kter\u00fdm Sun Tzu varoval: \u201eV\u0161echna taktika a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 strategie jsou zvukem por\u00e1\u017eky.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b se budeme bavit o tom, jak podivn\u011b podhodnocen\u00e1 hodnocen\u00ed Briana Berletica a Johna Helmera ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee my\u0161lenka \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e1 v nez\u00e1visl\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch, \u017ee Trump p\u0159edstavuje radik\u00e1ln\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00fd rozchod s minulost\u00ed, je p\u0159ehnan\u00e1. Jeho rozd\u00edly v metod\u00e1ch jsou myln\u011b zam\u011b\u0148ov\u00e1ny s rozd\u00edly v c\u00edlech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejprve v\u0161ak probereme, jak je posedlost nov\u00e9 administrativy \u2013 snaha vynutit si dohodu o nerostn\u00fdch surovin\u00e1ch a dal\u0161\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch pr\u00e1vech z Ukrajiny \u2013 v rozporu se samotn\u00fdm c\u00edlem dohody s Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato ukrajinsk\u00e1 dohoda o nerostn\u00fdch surovin\u00e1ch by mohla b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edkladem toho, \u017ee Trumpovy obvykl\u00e9 metody jsou tentokr\u00e1t jeho p\u00e1dem. Sna\u017eit se maximalizovat svou vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed p\u00e1ku navrhov\u00e1n\u00edm extr\u00e9mn\u00edch my\u0161lenek nemus\u00ed fungovat, pokud je aplikov\u00e1na reflexivn\u011b \u2013 jak se zd\u00e1 Trump 2.0 \u2013 sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e \u00fa\u010delov\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u00e1m Trump pravideln\u011b vyhro\u017euje radik\u00e1ln\u00edmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi, jako jsou etnick\u00e9 \u010distky v Gaze, a zastra\u0161uje hlavy st\u00e1t\u016f, aby prosadily svou v\u016fli. Nejen\u017ee tam Trump nem\u016f\u017ee realizovat sv\u016fj projekt Riviera \u2013 jeho pokusy o zastra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed z n\u011bj nav\u00edc p\u016fsob\u00ed jako tvrdohlav\u00fd debil. Pro\u010d by n\u011bkdo cht\u011bl vstupovat do vztahu s partnerem, kter\u00fd si nejen libuje v nehor\u00e1zn\u00fdch projevech dominance, ale dokonce poni\u017euje hlavy st\u00e1t\u016f (jako jord\u00e1nsk\u00fd kr\u00e1l Abdall\u00e1h) a je mu lhostejn\u00e9 destabilizovat cel\u00fd region? Takov\u00e9 \u010diny jsou destruktivn\u00ed pro budov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry a jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s ostatn\u00edmi jako s rovnocenn\u00fdmi partnery.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nebo mo\u017en\u00e1 Trump a jeho agenti st\u00e1le v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko se sna\u017e\u00ed udr\u017eet sv\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed a \u017ee pos\u00edlen\u00ed americk\u00e9 d\u016fv\u011bryhodnosti a odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed Rusko k \u00fastupk\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ani jeden ze dvou mo\u017en\u00fdch Trumpov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f \u2013 pou\u017eit\u00ed dohody o surovin\u00e1ch k udr\u017een\u00ed USA na Ukrajin\u011b a pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky, nebo vyu\u017eit\u00ed t\u00e9to dohody k definitivn\u00edmu rozchodu s Ukrajinou \u2013 neodpov\u00edd\u00e1 re\u00e1ln\u00e9mu hodnocen\u00ed situace na m\u00edst\u011b. Alespo\u0148 ne, pokud je stanoven\u00fdm c\u00edlem m\u00edr.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 Trump jen p\u0159eskupuje \u017eidle, ne\u017e bude pokra\u010dovat ve sv\u00e9m star\u00e9m imperi\u00e1ln\u00edm programu:<\/span><\/p>\n

Brian Berletic tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee mnoho nez\u00e1visl\u00fdch koment\u00e1tor\u016f propadlo humbuku MAGA\/America First, kdy\u017e ve skute\u010dnosti Trump stoj\u00ed za strategickou kontinuitou USA \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v udr\u017een\u00ed dominance nad \u010c\u00ednou. Berletic zejm\u00e9na poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee potvrzovac\u00ed sly\u0161en\u00ed pro Trumpovy obrann\u00e9 a zpravodajsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky jasn\u011b ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nezru\u0161\u00ed apar\u00e1t pro zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu USAID. Sp\u00ed\u0161e je prost\u011b osvobozen od DEI a dal\u0161\u00edch prvk\u016f, kter\u00e9 MAGA odm\u00edt\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je samoz\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee toto hodnocen\u00ed je v jasn\u00e9m rozporu s konven\u010dn\u00ed, samolibou p\u0159edstavou, \u017ee Trump vyvedl Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty z byznysu se zm\u011bnou re\u017eimu. Pro\u010d by to, pros\u00edm, m\u011blo b\u00fdt ve strategick\u00e9m z\u00e1jmu Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f? Zru\u0161en\u00ed tohoto apar\u00e1tu by toti\u017e nep\u0159ineslo \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 v\u00fdhody ani \u00fastupky.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1zor Yvese Smithe na anal\u00fdzu Johna Helmera:<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Helmer \u010derp\u00e1 z vlastn\u00edch zku\u0161enost\u00ed v Carterov\u011b administrativ\u011b i z rusk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, kter\u00e9 potvrzuj\u00ed to, co bylo z\u0159ejm\u00e9 z v\u00fdpov\u011bd\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016f [rozhovor\u016f v Rij\u00e1du] – toti\u017e \u017ee z rusk\u00e9ho pohledu byla sch\u016fzka katastrofou.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e nem\u00e1te zpr\u00e1vy po ruce, zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm k tomu USA \u0161ly, byl naprosto absurdn\u00ed. Americk\u00e1 strana vyzvala k okam\u017eit\u00e9mu jedn\u00e1n\u00ed na vysok\u00e9 \u00farovni, i kdy\u017e takov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed se obvykle konaj\u00ed a\u017e po proveden\u00ed odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159\u00edpravn\u00fdch prac\u00ed. Trump\u016fv zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00fd t\u00fdm byl nav\u00edc jmenov\u00e1n teprve ned\u00e1vno. Proto\u017ee ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed bylo za Trumpovy administrativy fakticky vykuch\u00e1no, Rubio a jeho kolegov\u00e9 nemohli \u010derpat ani z institucion\u00e1ln\u00edch odborn\u00fdch znalost\u00ed kari\u00e9rn\u00edch diplomat\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed slou\u017eili p\u0159ed Bidenem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Helmer zopakoval n\u011bkter\u00e1 sv\u00e1 hodnocen\u00ed a p\u0159idal nov\u00e9 post\u0159ehy v rozhovoru s Nimou z\u00a0<\/span>Dialogue Works<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od sam\u00e9ho vrcholu:<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Helmer: \u201eRusk\u00e9 vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed je, \u017ee americk\u00e1 strana je kasha \u2013 nepo\u0159\u00e1dek, nepo\u0159\u00e1dek. Ale to se samoz\u0159ejm\u011b ned\u00e1 \u0159\u00edct otev\u0159en\u011b… Ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed: co by m\u011bla rusk\u00e1 strana d\u011blat d\u00e1l?\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento probl\u00e9m je v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty svolaly sch\u016fzku na vysok\u00e9 \u00farovni, ani\u017e by m\u011bly jasnou p\u0159edstavu o tom, co d\u00e1l \u2013 bez programu, bez jasn\u00fdch ot\u00e1zek, bez konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch n\u00e1vrh\u016f. Zd\u00e1lo se, \u017ee \u0161lo jen o vytvo\u0159en\u00ed dojmu hybnosti a p\u0159edst\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee Trump d\u011bl\u00e1 v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd pokrok v ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Helmer poukazuje na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zoufal\u00fd postoj americk\u00e9 strany, kdy\u017e \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee pouh\u00e1 skute\u010dnost tohoto setk\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bla slou\u017eit jako d\u016fkaz toho, \u017ee Trump byl jedin\u00fd mu\u017e, kter\u00fd mohl ukon\u010dit v\u00e1lku \u2013 sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e aby \u0161lo o skute\u010dn\u00fd obsah.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br:<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br pro m\u011b je, \u017ee Trump nem\u00e1 v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd pl\u00e1n na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed m\u00edru na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Konflikt se v d\u016fsledku toho bude muset rozhodnout na boji\u0161ti.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u00e1 Trump skute\u010dn\u011b pl\u00e1n pro Ukrajinu? Na pl\u00e1nech prezidenta Trumpa pro Ukrajinu je zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed, \u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":71818,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,4030,452,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73332"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73332"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73332\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71818"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}