{"id":73064,"date":"2025-02-25T05:47:15","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T04:47:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=73064"},"modified":"2025-02-25T05:47:15","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T04:47:15","slug":"uriel-araujo-evropa-a-usa-jsou-nyni-nepratele-tak-co","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/02\/25\/uriel-araujo-evropa-a-usa-jsou-nyni-nepratele-tak-co\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Evropa a USA jsou nyn\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9 \u2013 tak co?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika USA \u010dasto p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 houp\u00e1n\u00ed kyvadla, osciluj\u00edc\u00ed mezi \u201ekontrov\u00e1n\u00edm\u201c bu\u010f Rusku, nebo \u010c\u00edn\u011b \u2013 n\u011bkdy se sna\u017e\u00ed prosazovat oba trendy jako v Bidenov\u011b p\u0159\u00edstupu \u201edvoj\u00edho zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c. Neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee takov\u00e9 oto\u010den\u00ed je nevratn\u00e9 nebo \u017ee kyvadlo u\u017e nikdy nebude kmitat.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Stephen M. Walt (profesor mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f na Harvardsk\u00e9 univerzit\u011b a v\u00fdznamn\u00fd \u010dlen takzvan\u00e9 realistick\u00e9 \u0161koly mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f) ve sv\u00e9m ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m\u00a0<\/span>\u010dl\u00e1nku<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pro Foreign Policy tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty americk\u00e9 jsou nyn\u00ed \u201enep\u0159\u00edtelem Evropy\u201c \u2013 nebo alespo\u0148 nep\u0159\u00edtelem dne\u0161n\u00ed Evropy a jej\u00edch hodnot. Novin\u00e1\u0159 Gideon Rachman (p\u00ed\u0161\u00edc\u00ed pro Financial Times) to popsal leh\u010deji, kdy\u017e\u00a0<\/span>\u0159ekl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee \u201epolitick\u00e9 ambice Trumpovy administrativy pro Evropu znamenaj\u00ed, \u017ee Amerika je prozat\u00edm tak\u00e9 protivn\u00edkem\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Walt uzn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee realist\u00e9 jako on tvrdil, \u017ee (i z americk\u00e9 perspektivy) prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b nem\u011blo smysl a \u017ee roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO bylo nebezpe\u010dnou cestou, kter\u00e1 ve skute\u010dnosti sbl\u00ed\u017eila Moskvu a Peking. Proto by d\u00e1valo smysl, aby Washington \u201evrazil kl\u00edn\u201c mezi tyto dv\u011b eurasijsk\u00e9 mocnosti a z\u00e1rove\u0148 podle jeho slov \u201evytv\u00e1\u0159el evropsk\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d, kter\u00fd sni\u017euje motivaci Moskvy zp\u016fsobovat pot\u00ed\u017ee\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Politolog nicm\u00e9n\u011b tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e9 americk\u00e9 p\u0159edsednictv\u00ed ji\u017e p\u0159es\u00e1hlo transatlantick\u00e9 \u201espory o sd\u00edlen\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee\u201c (v r\u00e1mci NATO) a \u017ee c\u00edlem Trumpovy administrativy je ve skute\u010dnosti \u201ez\u00e1sadn\u011b transformovat vztahy s dlouholet\u00fdmi spojenci USA, p\u0159epsat glob\u00e1ln\u00ed knihu pravidel a pokud mo\u017eno p\u0159ed\u011blat Evropu podle vzoru MAGA\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

K tomu Walt zmi\u0148uje neomalen\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm Trump \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed celn\u00ed hrozby (dokonce i v\u016f\u010di bl\u00edzk\u00fdm spojenc\u016fm) \u201ebu\u010f proto, aby si vynutil \u00fastupky v jin\u00fdch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch, nebo pouze proto, \u017ee maj\u00ed obchodn\u00ed p\u0159ebytky\u201c a zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm se koncept lp\u011bn\u00ed na vyjednan\u00fdch dohod\u00e1ch zd\u00e1 nov\u00e9mu americk\u00e9mu prezidentovi \u201enaprosto ciz\u00ed\u201c. Walt uv\u00e1d\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklady: Trump otev\u0159en\u011b mluvil o okupaci a dob\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed, co\u017e n\u011bco signalizuje, i kdy\u017e \u010dlov\u011bk pova\u017euje jeho \u00fatoky na Gr\u00f3nsko, Palestinu, Panamsk\u00fd pr\u016fplav a Kanadu jen za \u201efantastick\u00e9\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc se podle Walta zd\u00e1, \u017ee \u201eElon Musk, Vance a zbytek t\u00fdmu MAGA\u201c se \u201epokou\u0161ej\u00ed prosadit dalekos\u00e1hlou zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu v cel\u00e9 Evrop\u011b, i kdy\u017e bez pou\u017eit\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly\u201c. Zach\u00e1zet s dne\u0161n\u00ed Evropou jako s \u201enep\u0159\u00edtelem\u201c ve skute\u010dnosti pro Trump\u016fv t\u00fdm \u201em\u00e1lo riskuje\u201c, proto\u017ee \u201ev\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Evropa je upadaj\u00edc\u00ed region\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na z\u00e1klad\u011b t\u011bchto bod\u016f Stephen Walt zd\u016fvod\u0148uje: \u201ePokud je nyn\u00ed Amerika protivn\u00edkem, evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i by se m\u011bli p\u0159estat pt\u00e1t sami sebe, co mus\u00ed ud\u011blat, aby byl str\u00fd\u010dek Sam \u0161\u0165astn\u00fd, a za\u010d\u00edt se pt\u00e1t, co mus\u00ed ud\u011blat, aby se ochr\u00e1nili. Kdybych byl jimi, za\u010dal bych t\u00edm, \u017ee bych pozval v\u00edce obchodn\u00edch delegac\u00ed z \u010c\u00edny a za\u010dal vyv\u00edjet alternativy k syst\u00e9mu SWIFT… Evropsk\u00e9 univerzity by m\u011bly zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00fasil\u00ed o spolupr\u00e1ci ve v\u00fdzkumu s \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi institucemi… Ukon\u010dit z\u00e1vislost Evropy na americk\u00fdch zbran\u00edch p\u0159ebudov\u00e1n\u00edm vlastn\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny… Zva\u017ete pod\u00e1n\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dosti o \u010dlenstv\u00ed v [BRICS].\u201c P\u00ed\u0161e v\u0161ak z americk\u00e9 perspektivy a dod\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee tyto kroky by byly pro Evropu \u201en\u00e1kladn\u00e9\u201c a tak\u00e9 \u201e\u0161kodliv\u00e9\u201c pro USA, a dod\u00e1v\u00e1: \u201eNechci, aby se \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z nich skute\u010dn\u011b uskute\u010dnil. Ale Evropa nemus\u00ed m\u00edt na v\u00fdb\u011br.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

V souhlasu s Waltov\u00fdmi premisami n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici naivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho \u201eantiimperialistick\u00e9ho\u201c p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee USA jsou nyn\u00ed silou multipolarity a ji\u017e nejsou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Z\u00e1padu, geopoliticky \u0159e\u010deno. Dalo by se \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee i seri\u00f3zn\u00ed um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed odborn\u00edci, jako je Walt, p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed s docela r\u00e1zn\u00fdmi hodnocen\u00edmi. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u011b doch\u00e1z\u00ed k p\u0159ehnan\u00fdm reakc\u00edm do t\u00e9 m\u00edry, \u017ee to potenci\u00e1ln\u011b naru\u0161uje jinak dobr\u00e9 politick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy. Trump skute\u010dn\u011b vydal ne m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 70 exekutivn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edkaz\u016f (za sv\u016fj prvn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc), co\u017e mate politick\u00e9 protivn\u00edky, spojence i analytiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trouf\u00e1m si v\u0161ak tvrdit, \u017ee Trumpovy dosavadn\u00ed \u010diny nebyly tak ne\u010dekan\u00e9 \u2013 znamenaj\u00ed relativn\u00ed obrat, ale dojem, kter\u00fd vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed, je z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zp\u016fsoben sp\u00ed\u0161e tempem a stylem ne\u017e obsahem. Ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0jsem\u00a0<\/span>se vyjad\u0159oval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ke koloni\u00e1ln\u00ed povaze transatlantick\u00e9ho partnerstv\u00ed a k tomu, jak zahrnovalo zast\u0159en\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed \u2013 v\u0161e je nyn\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00e9. N\u011bkdo by si mohl vzpomenout, \u017ee to byl Joe Biden, kdo zah\u00e1jil\u00a0<\/span>dota\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lku<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1kona o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed inflace<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) proti Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Francouz Macron tehdy \u0159ekl, \u017ee z\u00e1le\u017eitost je tak v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1, \u017ee by mohla \u201erozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161tit Z\u00e1pad\u201c. Krom\u011b toho, jak jsem ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0d\u0159\u00edve, v listopadu 2023 ji\u017e James Stavridis, b\u00fdval\u00fd nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed velitel NATO, volal po \u201e\u00a0<\/span>zem\u011b pro m\u00edrov\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed k boji<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c na Ukrajin\u011b. Pokud to vypad\u00e1 jako trumpismus p\u0159ed Trumpem, pak mus\u00edme p\u0159ehodnotit samotnou my\u0161lenku \u201etrumpismu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, USA jsou dlouhodob\u011b\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00e9<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a mus\u00ed pragmaticky uznat, \u017ee existuj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bjin\u00e9 velmoci \u2013 nemluv\u011b o realit\u011b \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 supervelmoci. To zahrnuje ur\u010dit\u00fd stupe\u0148 \u201eustupov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c (a to je to, co se d\u011blo i za demokratick\u00fdch administrativ, nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159i sta\u017een\u00ed z Ir\u00e1ku a Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu) A\u0165 je to jak chce, Washington se se v\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed bude st\u00e1le sna\u017eit udr\u017eet si svou hegemonii, i kdy\u017e v \u201epoli\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edm\u201c sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejde ani o \u201emultipolaritu\u201c nebo \u201eunipolaritu\u201c, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e o jemn\u00e9 kontinuum. Trump se nav\u00edc\u00a0<\/span>vyh\u00fdb\u00e1 signalizaci slabosti<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, a to i p\u0159i \u00fastupu z \u0159ady kin, t\u00edm, \u017ee hraje \u201etvrd\u011b\u201c, a to je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 pro pochopen\u00ed jeho zp\u016fsobu veden\u00ed americk\u00e9ho sta\u017een\u00ed z v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy, zat\u00edmco pl\u00e1nuje\u00a0<\/span>oto\u010den\u00ed do Pacifiku<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a na americk\u00fd kontinent jako sou\u010d\u00e1st dopl\u0148kov\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span>neomonroeistick\u00e9ho<\/span><\/a>\u00a0p\u0159\u00edstupu.<\/span><\/p>\n

To, co n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u201eReverzn\u00ed Kissingerova strategie\u201c nebo pokus \u201eudvo\u0159it\u201c Rusko, aby ho vyhnat z \u010c\u00edny (je to p\u0159ehnan\u00fd popis), nen\u00ed ve skute\u010dnosti \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 divok\u00e1 novinka. Jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>tvrdil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0jinde, americk\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika \u010dasto p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 houp\u00e1n\u00ed kyvadla. \u010casto osciluje mezi pojmem \u201e\u010delit\u201c Moskv\u011b nebo Pekingu \u2013 n\u011bkdy ve snaze sledovat oba trendy sou\u010dasn\u011b, jak jsme dostate\u010dn\u011b jasn\u011b vid\u011bli na nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edstupu \u201edvoj\u00edho zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c Joe Bidena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kyvadlo se te\u010f m\u016f\u017ee znovu k\u00fdvat. Neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee takov\u00fd obrat je nevratn\u00fd nebo \u017ee se ho Trump bude tvrdohlav\u011b dr\u017eet, a\u0165 se d\u011bje cokoliv. Pokud jde o Evropu, mohla by se naskytnout p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost kone\u010dn\u011b usilovat o jej\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>strategickou autonomii<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. I p\u0159i dlouhodob\u00e9m sledov\u00e1n\u00ed c\u00edle diverzifikace energetick\u00fdch zdroj\u016f by Evropa mohla pragmaticky obnovit sv\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 vztahy s Ruskem \u2013 to by jist\u011b prosp\u011blo v\u0161em stran\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

To by v\u0161ak vy\u017eadovalo ur\u010ditou m\u00edru sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed a opravit n\u011bco je obvykle t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e to rozb\u00edt. Majdanizace\u00a0Evropy mohla ve skute\u010dnosti zaj\u00edt u\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 daleko\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Nejsou to Trump a JD Vance, kdo \u201efa\u0161izuje\u201c Evropu, jak tvrd\u00ed Walt: Evropa vytvo\u0159ila (protirusk\u00fd) krajn\u011b pravicov\u00fd\u00a0<\/span>mainstream<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s alianc\u00ed Meloni-Von der Leyen.<\/span><\/p>\n

To zahrnuje\u00a0<\/span>normalizaci fa\u0161istick\u00fdch \u0159\u00edmsk\u00fdch pozdrav\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(stejn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jak\u00fdm se od roku 2014\u00a0<\/span>b\u011bl\u00ed neonacismus na Ukrajin\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) \u2013 to v\u0161e p\u0159ed Trumpem a Vancem. To jsou probl\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed Evropa \u0159e\u0161it, nez\u00e1visle na tom, co Trump nebo Vance d\u011blaj\u00ed nebo \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD<\/a>, antropologick\u00fd v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed a etnick\u00e9 konflikty<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika USA \u010dasto p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 houp\u00e1n\u00ed kyvadla, osciluj\u00edc\u00ed mezi \u201ekontrov\u00e1n\u00edm\u201c bu\u010f Rusku, nebo \u010c\u00edn\u011b \u2013…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":73065,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,41,37,814],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73064"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73064"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73064\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/73065"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73064"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73064"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73064"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}