{"id":72945,"date":"2025-02-24T00:14:31","date_gmt":"2025-02-23T23:14:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=72945"},"modified":"2025-02-23T14:02:10","modified_gmt":"2025-02-23T13:02:10","slug":"hysterie-zmeny-klimatu-odhalena-narust-co%e2%82%82-jako-nepoznane-pozehnani-sklizne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/02\/24\/hysterie-zmeny-klimatu-odhalena-narust-co%e2%82%82-jako-nepoznane-pozehnani-sklizne\/","title":{"rendered":"Hysterie zm\u011bny klimatu odhalena: n\u00e1r\u016fst CO\u2082 jako nepoznan\u00e9 po\u017eehn\u00e1n\u00ed sklizn\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zat\u00edmco klimati\u010dt\u00ed v\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00ed a \u00fa\u0159ady nikdy neunav\u00ed varovat p\u0159ed \u00fadajn\u011b katastrof\u00e1ln\u00edmi d\u016fsledky rostouc\u00edch \u00farovn\u00ed CO\u2082, p\u0159evratn\u00e1 v\u011bdeck\u00e1 anal\u00fdza dosp\u00edv\u00e1 k p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e9mu z\u00e1v\u011bru. Studie, ned\u00e1vno publikovan\u00e1 v \u201eNature\u201c, z\u00e1sadn\u011b zpochyb\u0148uje dramaticky nafouknut\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty \u0161kod proveden\u00e9 Agenturou pro ochranu \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed USA (EPA).<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V obrovsk\u00e9m byrokratick\u00e9m stra\u0161en\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161ila EPA v roce 2023 p\u011btin\u00e1sobn\u011b takzvan\u00e9 \u201esoci\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1klady na uhl\u00edk\u201c (SCC). Tento drastick\u00fd krok byl od\u016fvodn\u011bn chmurn\u00fdmi progn\u00f3zami o ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f v d\u016fsledku glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed. Ale jak se nyn\u00ed ukazuje, toto hodnocen\u00ed bylo zalo\u017eeno na metodologicky velmi sporn\u00e9m modelu, kter\u00fd jednodu\u0161e ignoroval kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 pozitivn\u00ed efekty n\u00e1r\u016fstu CO\u2082.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u00e1 anal\u00fdza s n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Data metaanal\u00fdzy roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu plodin nepodporuj\u00ed vzestupnou revizi SCC<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c vykresluje mnohem diferencovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obr\u00e1zek: Ani p\u0159i oteplen\u00ed a\u017e o 5 \u00b0C by v\u00fdnosy plodin nekolabovaly, ale naopak by se dokonce zv\u00fd\u0161ily. D\u016fvod spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v \u201eefektu hnojen\u00ed CO\u2082\u201c, kter\u00fd byl dosud systematicky podce\u0148ov\u00e1n. Pokud se koncentrace CO\u2082 zdvojn\u00e1sob\u00ed z 280 na 560 ppm a teplota stoupne o 3 \u00b0C, nov\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty p\u0159inesou p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd v\u00fdsledek: Zat\u00edmco vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed teploty by sn\u00ed\u017eily v\u00fdnosy o 14,7 procenta, efekt hnojen\u00ed CO\u2082 vede ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdnosu o 16,8 procenta. Se\u010dteno a podtr\u017eeno je \u010dist\u00fd zisk 2,1 procenta.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed modely, o kter\u00e9 se EPA op\u00edrala \u2013 zejm\u00e9na \u0161iroce citovan\u00e1 pr\u00e1ce\u00a0<\/span>Moora et al. (2017)<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>Challinor et al. (2014)<\/span><\/a> \u2013 se ve sv\u011btle t\u011bchto nov\u00fdch poznatk\u016f uk\u00e1zaly jako metodologicky nedostate\u010dn\u00e9. Zanedb\u00e1vali kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 faktory, jako jsou m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se vzorce sr\u00e1\u017eek, zlep\u0161en\u00e1 \u00fa\u010dinnost vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vody rostlinami za zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdch podm\u00ednek CO\u2082 a potenci\u00e1l technologick\u00e9 adaptace.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011bdeck\u00e1 realita ukazuje jin\u00fd obr\u00e1zek ne\u017e politick\u00e1 tvrzen\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Toto odhalen\u00ed vrh\u00e1 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 sv\u011btlo na sou\u010dasnou debatu o klimatu. Zat\u00edmco \u00fa\u0159ady a aktivist\u00e9 opakovan\u011b varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed hroz\u00edc\u00edm kolapsem produkce potravin, v\u011bdeck\u00e1 realita vykresluje mnohem optimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obr\u00e1zek. Negativn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed jsou nejen kompenzov\u00e1ny, ale p\u0159evy\u0161ov\u00e1ny pozitivn\u00edmi \u00fa\u010dinky hnojen\u00ed CO\u2082.<\/span><\/p>\n

A co v\u00edc, v\u00fdpo\u010dty EPA, kter\u00e9 vedly k masivn\u00edmu n\u00e1r\u016fstu odhadovan\u00e9ho po\u0161kozen\u00ed klimatu, jsou zalo\u017eeny na selektivn\u00edm vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bdeck\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee agentura sleduje ideologicky zabarven\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh, kter\u00fd redukuje slo\u017eit\u00e9 interakce v klimatick\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu na jednoduchou dichotomii dobro-zlo. Fakt, kter\u00e9mu jsem se tak\u00e9\u00a0v\u011bnoval ve sv\u00e9 knize \u201e\u00a0<\/span>CO\u2082 nen\u00ed n\u00e1\u0161 nep\u0159\u00edtel \u201c.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

I 5 stup\u0148\u016f Celsia by bylo pozitivn\u00ed pro v\u00fdnosy plodin<\/span><\/h3>\n

Nov\u00e1 studie jasn\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee i p\u0159i zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed teploty o 5 \u00b0C \u2013 co\u017e je sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd daleko p\u0159evy\u0161uje sou\u010dasn\u00e9 projekce \u2013 by celosv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy plodin z\u016fstaly pozitivn\u00ed. To je zp\u016fsobeno v neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b d\u00edky \u00fa\u017easn\u00e9 p\u0159izp\u016fsobivosti modern\u00edho zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a podce\u0148ovan\u00e9mu po\u017eehn\u00e1n\u00ed dodate\u010dn\u00e9ho CO\u2082.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed by m\u011bla vyvolat dlouho opo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9 p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 politiky. Ukazuj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edkladn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je kriticky zpochybnit v\u011bdeck\u00e9 modely a zahrnout do anal\u00fdzy v\u0161echny relevantn\u00ed faktory \u2013 i kdy\u017e v\u00fdsledky neodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edmu vypr\u00e1v\u011bn\u00ed o katastrof\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Zat\u00edmco klimati\u010dt\u00ed v\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00ed a \u00fa\u0159ady nikdy neunav\u00ed varovat p\u0159ed \u00fadajn\u011b katastrof\u00e1ln\u00edmi d\u016fsledky rostouc\u00edch \u00farovn\u00ed CO\u2082,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":72946,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[2692,873,5969,104],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72945"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72945"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72945\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72946"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}