{"id":72868,"date":"2025-02-22T00:22:43","date_gmt":"2025-02-21T23:22:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=72868"},"modified":"2025-02-21T17:16:41","modified_gmt":"2025-02-21T16:16:41","slug":"jiri-paroubek-lze-ocekavat-napinavy-vysledek-nemeckych-voleb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/02\/22\/jiri-paroubek-lze-ocekavat-napinavy-vysledek-nemeckych-voleb\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat nap\u00ednav\u00fd v\u00fdsledek n\u011bmeck\u00fdch voleb"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Kdy\u017e po volb\u00e1ch do Bundestagu v roce 2021 byla vytvo\u0159ena vl\u00e1da t\u0159\u00ed politick\u00fdch stran, v n\u00ed\u017e se spojili tehdy nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokrat\u00e9 s Liber\u00e1ly a Zelen\u00fdmi, zd\u00e1lo se, \u017ee to m\u016f\u017ee po n\u011bjakou dobu dob\u0159e fungovat. Optimismus vydr\u017eel zhruba rok, ale nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ekonomika Evropy se dostala po za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b v \u00fanoru 2022 do velmi slo\u017eit\u00e9 situace. Jej\u00ed prosperita byla zalo\u017eena (stejn\u011b jako prosperita \u010ceska) na dovozu levn\u00fdch surovin z Ruska. Po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 invaze na Ukrajinu se ov\u0161em N\u011bmecko zapojilo aktivn\u011b do protirusk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed, kter\u00fdmi prakticky po\u0161kodilo samo sebe. Rusk\u00e1 ekonomika se rozhodn\u011b nezhroutila. Vl\u00e1da se d\u00edky Soci\u00e1ln\u00edm demokrat\u016fm sna\u017eila i tak neeskalovat v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b dod\u00e1vkami n\u011bkter\u00fdch supermodern\u00edch zbran\u00ed, u nich\u017e byl potenci\u00e1l roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed konfliktu i na \u00fazem\u00ed Ruska.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pokud vezmeme politickou str\u00e1nku v\u011bci, pak Zelen\u00ed d\u00edky sv\u00e9 ministryni zahrani\u010d\u00ed byli sp\u00ed\u0161e slab\u00fdm \u010dl\u00e1nkem vl\u00e1dy a liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 disonantn\u00edm. Liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 v\u00a0podstat\u011b rozbili, na podzim minul\u00e9ho roku vl\u00e1dn\u00ed koalici, p\u0159i dohadov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fasporn\u00e9ho bal\u00ed\u010dku. V\u00a0r\u00e1mci vl\u00e1dn\u00ed koalice se pr\u00e1v\u011b Liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 sna\u017eili p\u0159en\u00e9st t\u00edhu n\u00e1klad\u016f tak, jak to pravice v\u017edycky d\u011bl\u00e1, na \u0161irok\u00e9 vrstvy zam\u011bstnanc\u016f. Soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokrat\u00e9 naopak cht\u011bli j\u00edt cestou zdan\u011bn\u00ed t\u011bch nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch firem.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm t\u00e9matem voleb je ov\u0161em v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli probl\u00e9m imigrace, kterou n\u011bme\u010dt\u00ed voli\u010di pova\u017euj\u00ed za probl\u00e9m kruci\u00e1ln\u00ed. U\u017e tak\u00e9 proto, \u017ee v\u00a0n\u011bmeck\u00fdch m\u011bstech doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0opakovan\u00fdm vra\u017eedn\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm migrant\u016f na pokojn\u00e9 n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ob\u010dany.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o ekonomick\u00e1 t\u00e9mata, strany se li\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch da\u0148ov\u00fdch. SPD slibuje, \u017ee prosad\u00ed, pokud se stane stranou vl\u00e1dn\u00ed, sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 7% sazby DPH u potravin na 5% (standardn\u00ed sazba DPH je 19%). Stejn\u011b tak SPD navrhuje da\u0148ov\u00e9 \u00falevy, kter\u00e9 se podle jejich p\u0159edvolebn\u00edho programu dotknou pozitivn\u011b 95% da\u0148ov\u00fdch poplatn\u00edk\u016f a to zejm\u00e9na rodin s\u00a0d\u011btmi. SPD chce prosadit zaveden\u00ed minim\u00e1ln\u00ed hodinov\u00e9 mzdy ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch necel\u00fdch 13 eur na 15 eur od ledna 2026.<\/p>\n

Zelen\u00ed i Soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokrat\u00e9 maj\u00ed zhruba stejn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup ke zda\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ech p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00fdch skupin s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee cht\u011bj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed da\u0148ovou sazbu jen u jednotlivc\u016f bez rodiny s\u00a0ro\u010dn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edjmem nad 100 tis\u00edc eur hrub\u00e9ho. Zelen\u00ed navrhuj\u00ed vytvo\u0159it Investi\u010dn\u00ed fond N\u011bmecka, kter\u00fd by do roku 2030 disponoval cca 12,5 biliony korun (v p\u0159epo\u010dtu z eur). A z\u00a0tohoto investi\u010dn\u00edho fondu by byly prov\u00e1d\u011bny ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 investice.<\/p>\n

Naopak konzervativn\u00ed CDU\/CSU a tak\u00e9 Liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 (FDP) na to cht\u011bj\u00ed j\u00edt od lesa, a sice \u017ee by da\u0148ov\u00e1 z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e m\u011bla klesat se stoupaj\u00edc\u00edm p\u0159\u00edjmem. Je to tedy je\u0161t\u011b \u201evylep\u0161en\u00e1\u201c rovn\u00e1 da\u0148, kterou jsme tady za\u017eili dlouh\u00e1 l\u00e9ta a kter\u00e1 se p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 neosv\u011bd\u010dila. Nejradik\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jsou pochopiteln\u011b ve zda\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f dva radik\u00e1ln\u011b levicov\u00e9 subjekty Die Linke a Spole\u010denstv\u00ed S. Wagenknechtov\u00e9 (BSW). Tyto dv\u011b strany prosazuj\u00ed razantn\u00ed zdan\u011bn\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f. P\u0159i\u010dem\u017e z\u00a0t\u011bchto nov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, by mohla b\u00fdt financov\u00e1na nap\u0159. v\u00fdstavba levn\u00fdch byt\u016f. Ob\u011b dv\u011b radik\u00e1ln\u011b levicov\u00e9 strany cht\u011bj\u00ed ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed sazby DPH u \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho okruhu zbo\u017e\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b nepotravin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho. Tak, aby se zlep\u0161ila situace t\u011bch p\u0159\u00edjmov\u011b nejslab\u0161\u00edch, tedy rodin s\u00a0d\u011btmi a d\u016fchodc\u016f. Liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed naopak sn\u00ed\u017eit korpor\u00e1tn\u00ed dan\u011b tak, aby velk\u00e9 podniky mohly v\u00edce investovat z\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho \u010dist\u00e9ho zisku, kter\u00fd by tak dos\u00e1hly.<\/p>\n

Alternativa pro N\u011bmecko (AfD) nebude jist\u011b zat\u00ed\u017eena po volb\u00e1ch povinnost\u00ed vl\u00e1dnout, a proto v\u00a0da\u0148ov\u00e9 oblasti jej\u00ed n\u00e1vrhy jsou m\u00edrn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno pon\u011bkud nezodpov\u011bdn\u00e9. Odhaduje se, \u017ee by likvidace n\u011bkter\u00fdch dan\u00ed a u jin\u00fdch jejich sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed, vedlo ke ztr\u00e1t\u011b 100 miliard eur ve st\u00e1tn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtu N\u011bmecka ro\u010dn\u011b.<\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky voleb<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed koalice, v\u00a0n\u00ed\u017e vedouc\u00ed silou byli Soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokrat\u00e9, zanech\u00e1v\u00e1 nov\u00e9 vl\u00e1d\u011b stagnuj\u00edc\u00ed ekonomiku. Dokonce i v\u00fdvoz zbo\u017e\u00ed v\u00a0posledn\u00edch dvou letech meziro\u010dn\u011b kles\u00e1. Tak\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investice po celou dobu sou\u010dasn\u00e9 n\u011bmeck\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy klesaly, a\u017e teprve v\u00a0lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce se zvedly meziro\u010dn\u011b z 18 miliard eur na 35 miliard eur. Ale v\u00a0roce 2020 byl objem p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch zahrani\u010dn\u00edch investic v\u00a0N\u011bmecku 152 miliard eur. Co je pozitivn\u00ed, je na n\u011bmeck\u00e9 pom\u011bry nep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 vysok\u00e1 nezam\u011bstnanost,\u00a0 kter\u00e1 se pohybuje v\u00a0posledn\u00edch p\u011bti letech kolem 6%. A to s\u00a0jedinou v\u00fdjimkou roku 2022, kdy dos\u00e1hla 4,3%. Co\u017e byla nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed m\u00edra nezam\u011bstnanosti dosa\u017een\u00e1 v N\u011bmecku v posledn\u00edch dvaceti letech.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee volby vyhraj\u00ed s\u00a0v\u00fdsledkem \u00a030 a\u017e 32% klerik\u00e1ln\u00ed strany CDU\/CSU. Podle pr\u016fzkumu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, bude druhou stranou na p\u00e1sce AfD s\u00a0v\u00fdsledkem 20 a 22 % hlas\u016f. A\u017e t\u0159et\u00ed budou Soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokrat\u00e9 s\u00a0volebn\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem kolem 15 a\u017e 16% hlas\u016f. A\u017e za nimi s\u00a0je\u0161t\u011b slab\u0161\u00edm volebn\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem bude strana Zelen\u00fdch. Za nimi budou n\u00e1sledovat s\u00a0volebn\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem kolem 5% dv\u011b levicov\u00e9 strany, tedy Die Linke a BSW. Je ot\u00e1zka, zda p\u0159ekonaj\u00ed hranici 5% nezbytnou k\u00a0tomu, aby jejich poslanci zasedali v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm Spolkov\u00e9m sn\u011bmu. Podle pr\u016fzkumu je\u0161t\u011b slab\u0161\u00ed pozici m\u00edrn\u011b pod 5% maj\u00ed zat\u00edm Liber\u00e1lov\u00e9. Liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 by byli p\u0159irozen\u00fdm politick\u00fdm spojencem ve vl\u00e1d\u011b veden\u00e9 CDU\/CSU. Ale i kdyby se Liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 dostali se sv\u00fdm volebn\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem p\u0159es 5%, spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0klerik\u00e1ln\u00edmi stranami, nem\u011bli by absolutn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu v\u00a0Bundestagu. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je mo\u017en\u00e1 tak\u00e9 trojkoalice mezi CDU\/CSU, Liber\u00e1ly a Zelen\u00fdmi. Strana Zeln\u00fdch ov\u0161em bude trvat na odstaven\u00ed jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren, co\u017e je trnem v\u00a0oku bavorsk\u00e9 CSU.<\/p>\n

Vid\u00edm tedy jako mnohem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed spojen\u00ed do nov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed koalice veden\u00e9 CDU\/CSU sp\u00ed\u0161e se Soci\u00e1ln\u00edmi demokraty. H\u00e1\u010dek to m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt, jen pokud ob\u011b strany nedos\u00e1hnou spole\u010dn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161iny poslaneck\u00fdch m\u00edst v\u00a0Bundestagu anebo pokud by jejich v\u011bt\u0161ina byla velmi mal\u00e1, pak by pot\u0159ebovali t\u0159et\u00edho partnera. A to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt r\u00e9bus. Strana Zelen\u00fdch je doktrin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 v\u00a0oblasti vyu\u017eit\u00ed atomov\u00e9 energie. Liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 t\u011b\u017eko mohou spolupracovat v\u00a0koalici, v\u00a0n\u00ed\u017e by byla tak\u00e9 SPD.<\/p>\n

Ob\u011b dv\u011b krajn\u011b levicov\u00e9 strany budou mimo vl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u00favahy, pokud se v\u016fbec do nov\u00e9ho parlamentu dostanou (to stejn\u00e9 plat\u00ed i pro Liber\u00e1ly). A AfD, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt po volb\u00e1ch a\u017e \u010dtvrtinu poslanc\u016f v\u00a0Bundestagu, je \u00fapln\u011b mimo hru. Ustaven\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed spolkov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy bude po volb\u00e1ch tedy velmi slo\u017eitou politickou hrou a zabere mnoho m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/p>\n

Pokud bude v\u00fdsledkem jedn\u00e1n\u00ed velk\u00e1 koalice CDU\/CSU a SPD se slu\u0161nou v\u011bt\u0161inou Bundestagu, m\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt pozitivn\u00ed zm\u011bna. \u010celn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 obou potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch stran budouc\u00ed koalice maj\u00ed erudici k\u00a0\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a st\u00e1tu, jsou pragmatick\u00e9 a v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b tolerantn\u00ed. To m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st n\u011bmeck\u00e9mu hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 impulsy, co\u017e zaj\u00edm\u00e1 i \u010cechy s\u00a0ohledem na velkou propojenost ekonomiky N\u011bmecka a \u010ceska.<\/p>\n

Jestli\u017ee bude nutn\u00e9 vytvo\u0159it vl\u00e1dn\u00ed koalici o t\u0159ech stran\u00e1ch, bude to drhnout. A dost pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt po dvou a\u017e t\u0159ech letech ke kolapsu takov\u00e9ho koali\u010dn\u00edho uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Kdy\u017e po volb\u00e1ch do Bundestagu v roce 2021 byla vytvo\u0159ena vl\u00e1da t\u0159\u00ed politick\u00fdch stran, v…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19188,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,84,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72868"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72868"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72868\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19188"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}