{"id":72255,"date":"2025-02-14T00:47:55","date_gmt":"2025-02-13T23:47:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=72255"},"modified":"2025-02-13T16:24:38","modified_gmt":"2025-02-13T15:24:38","slug":"andrew-korybko-zde-je-to-co-prijde-pote-co-se-putin-a-trump-prave-dohodli-na-zahajeni-mirovych-rozhovoru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/02\/14\/andrew-korybko-zde-je-to-co-prijde-pote-co-se-putin-a-trump-prave-dohodli-na-zahajeni-mirovych-rozhovoru\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Zde je to, co p\u0159ijde pot\u00e9, co se Putin a Trump pr\u00e1v\u011b dohodli na zah\u00e1jen\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Cesta vp\u0159ed bude velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e1 kv\u016fli citliv\u00fdm ot\u00e1zk\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed Rusko a USA vy\u0159e\u0161it.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

12.\u00fanor 2025 se zap\u00ed\u0161e do d\u011bjin jako den, kdy ofici\u00e1ln\u011b za\u010dala kon\u010dit z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka NATO-Rusko na Ukrajin\u011b. Ministr obrany Pete Hegseth v\u0161e odstartoval prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee: Ukrajina nevstoup\u00ed do NATO; USA nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Ukrajina m\u016f\u017ee obnovit sv\u00e9 hranice p\u0159ed rokem 2014; USA nerozm\u00edst\u00ed voj\u00e1ky do z\u00f3ny konfliktu; USA cht\u011bj\u00ed, aby tam Evropan\u00e9 m\u00edsto toho p\u0159evzali ur\u010ditou m\u00edrovou odpov\u011bdnost; ale USA tam neroz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1ruky podle \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 na s\u00edly EU.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1sledoval\u00a0rozhovor Trumpa a Putina poprv\u00e9\u00a0<\/a>od n\u00e1vratu prvn\u00edho do \u00fa\u0159adu. Souhlasili s bezodkladn\u00fdm zah\u00e1jen\u00edm m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f, po kter\u00fdch Trump zavolal Zelensk\u00e9mu, aby ho o tom informoval a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b si od n\u011bj vynutil \u00fastupky, kter\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b sl\u00edbil Putinovi. Trump tak\u00e9\u00a0navrhl\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee se brzy setk\u00e1 s Putinem v Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii a \u017ee by pak ka\u017ed\u00fd z nich mohl nav\u0161t\u00edvit sv\u00e9 zem\u011b v r\u00e1mci m\u00edrov\u00e9ho procesu. Zde je n\u011bkolik z\u00e1kladn\u00edch informac\u00ed o \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm kontextu:<\/p>\n

* 3. ledna: \u201e\u00a0Tv\u016fr\u010d\u00ed energetick\u00e1 diplomacie m\u016f\u017ee polo\u017eit z\u00e1klad pro velkou rusko-americkou dohodu\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 17. ledna: \u201e\u00a0P\u0159ednosti demilitarizovan\u00e9ho ‚Trans-Dn\u011bpru‘ regionu kontrolovan\u00e9ho nez\u00e1padn\u00edmi m\u00edrotvorci\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 3. \u00fanora: \u201e\u00a0\u00dazemn\u00ed \u00fastupky mohou p\u0159edch\u00e1zet p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, kter\u00e9 povede k nov\u00fdm ukrajinsk\u00fdm volb\u00e1m\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 4. \u00fanora: \u201e\u00a0Trump\u016fv z\u00e1jem o ukrajinsk\u00e9 nerosty vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin by se mohl obr\u00e1tit proti Zelensk\u00e9mu\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 7. \u00fanora: \u201e\u00a0Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vyslanec Trumpa vrhl v\u00edce sv\u011btla na ukrajinsk\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd pl\u00e1n sv\u00e9ho \u0161\u00e9fa\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed anal\u00fdza o kreativn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 diplomacii obsahuje tucet navr\u017een\u00fdch kompromis\u016f pro ka\u017edou stranu, kter\u00e9 by mohly pomoci posunout jejich jedn\u00e1n\u00ed d\u00e1l. Ve skute\u010dnosti ten o tom, \u017ee USA neroz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1ruky podle \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 na s\u00edly EU na Ukrajin\u011b, je nyn\u00ed politikou podle Hegsetha, tak\u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee by ho mohli n\u00e1sledovat i dal\u0161\u00ed. Trump nav\u00edc pr\u00e1v\u011b poznamenal,\u00a0jak nepopul\u00e1rn\u00edm se stal Zelenskyj\u00a0<\/a>, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee pl\u00e1nuje \u201ef\u00e1zovou zm\u011bnu veden\u00ed\u201c prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm nov\u00fdch voleb, kter\u00e9 byly v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku tak\u00e9 navr\u017eeny.<\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b se uvid\u00ed, kter\u00fd z t\u011bchto dal\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1vrh\u016f by se mohl brzy st\u00e1t americkou politikou, tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed o t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 by Rusko mohlo zav\u00e9st, jako je souhlas s omezen\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi omezen\u00edmi na jeho stran\u011b DMZ, kter\u00e1 budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vytvo\u0159ena nap\u0159\u00edklad do konce tohoto procesu. N\u00e1sleduje p\u011bt hlavn\u00edch ot\u00e1zek, kter\u00e9 budou utv\u00e1\u0159et rusko-americk\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 rozhovory o Ukrajin\u011b mezi jejich v\u016fdci, diplomaty a kter\u00fdmkoli z jejich expert\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed by mohli b\u00fdt pozv\u00e1ni k \u00fa\u010dasti na t\u011bchto rozhovorech prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm dopl\u0148kov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f Track II:<\/p>\n

———-<\/strong><\/p>\n

* \u00dazemn\u00ed parametry<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Nejbezprost\u0159edn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem, kter\u00fd je t\u0159eba vy\u0159e\u0161it, je to, kde bude padat nov\u00e1 rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e1 hranice. Hegsethovo tvrzen\u00ed o neschopnosti Ukrajiny obnovit sv\u00e9 hranice z doby p\u0159ed rokem 2014 nazna\u010duje, \u017ee Trump by mohl Zelensk\u00e9ho p\u0159im\u011bt, aby se st\u00e1hl alespo\u0148 z cel\u00e9ho Donbasu, kter\u00fd je st\u0159edem \u00fazemn\u00ed dimenze jejich konfliktu, i kdy\u017e je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee jeho s\u00edly ustoup\u00ed a\u017e k m\u011bstu Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed. Nechat Rusko ovl\u00e1dat toto m\u011bsto a \u010d\u00e1sti jeho nov\u00fdch region\u016f na z\u00e1pad od Dn\u011bpru je v tuto chv\u00edli nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Je to proto, \u017ee Trump mo\u017en\u00e1 nebude cht\u00edt vz\u00edt flak, kter\u00fd by n\u00e1sledoval, kdy\u017e by Rusku dalo m\u011bsto s v\u00edce ne\u017e 700 000 obyvateli, jeho\u017e obyvatel\u00e9 nehlasovali v referendu v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022. Tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro \u010d\u00e1sti nov\u00fdch oblast\u00ed Ruska na z\u00e1pad od \u0159eky. M\u00edsto toho by mohl n\u011bkdy po zmrazen\u00ed boj\u016f navrhnout referendum pod dohledem OSN, kter\u00e9 by vy\u0159e\u0161ilo tento aspekt jejich \u00fazemn\u00edho sporu, a p\u0159itom by Rusku umo\u017enilo i nad\u00e1le ofici\u00e1ln\u011b vzn\u00e1\u0161et n\u00e1roky na tyto oblasti. To by mohlo b\u00fdt dost pragmatick\u00e9, aby Putin souhlasil.<\/p>\n

* Podm\u00ednky DMZ a role str\u00e1\u017ec\u016f m\u00edru<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem, kter\u00fd je t\u0159eba \u0159e\u0161it po v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9m, jsou podm\u00ednky DMZ pod\u00e9l jejich prozat\u00edmn\u00ed hranice a role m\u00edrov\u00fdch sil, kter\u00e9 by se tam pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b rozm\u00edstily, aby je monitorovaly. Hegsethovo prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, \u017ee USA neroz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1ruky \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 tamn\u00edm sil\u00e1m EU, by je mohlo odradit\u00a0od hran\u00ed hlavn\u00ed role\u00a0<\/a>, kterou by Rusko muselo v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b povolit prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm rezoluce Rady bezpe\u010dnosti OSN podle st\u00e1l\u00e9ho p\u0159edstavitele Vasilije Nebenziu,\u00a0jinak budou legitimn\u00edmi c\u00edli\u00a0<\/a>. Ty nez\u00e1padn\u00ed jsou tak mnohem p\u0159\u00edjemn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jak se ukazuje, naprost\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edk\u016f m\u00edrov\u00fdch sil OSN poch\u00e1z\u00ed z nez\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00ed, tak\u017ee by se tam mohli na z\u00e1klad\u011b Nebenziova n\u00e1vrhu perspektivn\u011b rozm\u00edstit na z\u00e1klad\u011b mand\u00e1tu RB OSN a mo\u017en\u00e1 dokonce v\u00e9st k \u00fapln\u00e9mu vylou\u010den\u00ed jak\u00fdchkoli z\u00e1padn\u00edch m\u00edrov\u00fdch sil, pokud se dohodne, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd nebude p\u0159isp\u00edvat k t\u00e9to misi. Jejich podm\u00ednky by musely b\u00fdt p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 jak pro Rusko, tak pro USA, aby tato rezoluce pro\u0161la, tak\u017ee nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, co p\u0159esn\u011b budou moci ud\u011blat nebo ne, ale to p\u0159\u00edmo navazuje na dal\u0161\u00ed vyd\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

* Demilitarizace a denacifikace<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Dva z hlavn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f Ruska ve\u00a0speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>operaci\u00a0<\/a>jsou demilitarizace a denacifikace Ukrajiny, o co\u017e se p\u016fvodn\u011b sna\u017eilo vojensky p\u0159inutit Ukrajinu k tomu podle podm\u00ednek stanoven\u00fdch v\u00a0n\u00e1vrhu m\u00edrov\u00e9 smlouvy z jara 2022\u00a0<\/a>, i kdy\u017e se to nepoda\u0159ilo kv\u016fli Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii\u00a0a Polsku\u00a0<\/a>. Je nere\u00e1ln\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee Trump bude souhlasit s t\u00edm, aby Rusko rozm\u00edstilo sv\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly po cel\u00e9 Ukrajin\u011b, aby to provedlo, tak\u017ee toho lze dos\u00e1hnout pouze podobn\u00fdmi diplomatick\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky zahrnuj\u00edc\u00edmi souhlas Kyjeva.<\/p>\n

V tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 mo\u017en\u00e1 role, kterou mohou m\u00edrov\u00e9 jednotky OSN hr\u00e1t p\u0159i monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed a prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010dehokoli, na \u010dem se nakonec dohodne pro demilitarizaci a denacifikaci Ukrajiny. To by mohlo m\u00edt podobu inspekce str\u00e1nek podez\u0159el\u00fdch z neleg\u00e1ln\u00edho zbrojen\u00ed a ve\u0161ker\u00e9ho p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu Ukrajiny (v\u010detn\u011b jej\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f) a z\u00e1rove\u0148 m\u00edt pr\u00e1vo na\u0159\u00eddit podle pot\u0159eby zm\u011bny sv\u00e9ho medi\u00e1ln\u00edho zpravodajstv\u00ed a \u0161koln\u00edch osnov. To je jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak zajistit, \u017ee Ukrajina z\u016fstane po skon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu demilitarizovan\u00e1 a denacifikovan\u00e1.<\/p>\n

* \u00daleva od sankc\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko opakovan\u011b po\u017eadovalo zru\u0161en\u00ed v\u0161ech z\u00e1padn\u00edch sankc\u00ed, ale lze argumentovat t\u00edm, \u017ee \u201emistr dohody\u201c Trump by nikdy nesouhlasil s t\u00edm, aby to ud\u011blal najednou, m\u00edsto toho rad\u011bji navrhne pl\u00e1n postupn\u00e9ho uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed sankc\u00ed jako odm\u011bnu za to, \u017ee Rusko dodr\u017euje p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nebo m\u00edrovou smlouvu. To by mohlo m\u00edt podobu toho, co bylo navr\u017eeno v anal\u00fdze kreativn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 diplomacie, podle n\u00ed\u017e by se n\u011bkter\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 v\u00fdvozy do EU mohly obnovit b\u011bhem prvn\u00ed f\u00e1ze jako opat\u0159en\u00ed na budov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry.<\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e by Rusko up\u0159ednostnilo, aby byly v\u0161echny okam\u017eit\u011b zru\u0161eny, jeho tv\u016frci politik by mohli doj\u00edt k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee je lep\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ijmout postupn\u00fd pl\u00e1n, pokud je to v\u0161e, co je Trumpovi pohodln\u00e9 nab\u00eddnout, m\u00edsto toho, aby v\u016fbec nic. I kdy\u017e by ud\u011blal dob\u0159e, kdyby se zapojil do gesta dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle a zru\u0161il sankce na rusk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz ropy po mo\u0159i, proto\u017ee by to mohlo p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit tv\u016frce politik, \u017ee to s uvoln\u011bn\u00edm tlaku na Rusko mysl\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. To by zase Putinovi usnadnilo prodat kompromis v podob\u011b postupn\u00e9ho uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed sankc\u00ed doma.<\/p>\n

* Nov\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektura<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dalo vytvo\u0159en\u00ed nov\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdch dohod s USA a NATO v prosinci 2021 na z\u00e1klad\u011b po\u017eadavk\u016f na bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky, kter\u00e9 s nimi v t\u00e9 dob\u011b sd\u00edlelo. Ty byly ve zp\u011btn\u00e9m pohledu ur\u010deny k diplomatick\u00e9mu vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed jejich bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho dilematu, jeho\u017e ko\u0159eny jsou v pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed expanzi NATO na v\u00fdchod po star\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lce a zejm\u00e9na v jeho tajn\u00e9 expanzi na Ukrajinu, nam\u00edsto speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace, kterou Putin v t\u00e9 dob\u011b tajn\u011b pl\u00e1noval, pokud by se to nezda\u0159ilo.<\/p>\n

Od t\u00e9 doby se toho tolik zm\u011bnilo, \u017ee samostatn\u00e9 komplexn\u00ed rozhovory o tom mus\u00ed za\u010d\u00edt hned pot\u00e9, co dos\u00e1hnou jak\u00e9koli dohody o Ukrajin\u011b. Mezi nov\u00e9 probl\u00e9my pat\u0159\u00ed nahromad\u011bn\u00ed v\u00fdchodn\u00ed arm\u00e1dy NATO, nov\u00e9 \u010dlenstv\u00ed Finska a \u0160v\u00e9dska, rusk\u00e9 hypersonick\u00e9\u00a0Ore\u0161niky\u00a0<\/a>, jejich\u00a0rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed v B\u011blorusku\u00a0<\/a>, rusk\u00e9\u00a0rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed i tam\u00a0<\/a>,\u00a0budoucnost Nov\u00e9ho STARTu\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00fd vypr\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok, a\u00a0nov\u00e9 z\u00e1vody ve zbrojen\u00ed ve vesm\u00edru\u00a0<\/a>a dal\u0161\u00ed. Dohoda na nov\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektu\u0159e proto stabilizuje sv\u011bt.<\/p>\n

———-<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jak je vid\u011bt, cesta vp\u0159ed bude velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e1 kv\u016fli citliv\u00fdm ot\u00e1zk\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed Rusko a USA vy\u0159e\u0161it, ale jejich l\u00edd\u0159i uk\u00e1zali, \u017ee maj\u00ed v\u016fli jednat v dobr\u00e9 v\u00ed\u0159e. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 ze stran pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nedos\u00e1hne sv\u00fdch maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f, ale diplomacie je um\u011bn\u00edm mo\u017en\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200btak\u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 ud\u011bl\u00e1 maximum, aby v tomto ohledu vzhledem k okolnostem dos\u00e1hla co nejv\u00edce. Nejlep\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je spravedliv\u00fd a trval\u00fd m\u00edr, kter\u00fd skute\u010dn\u011b vy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny v j\u00e1dru tohoto konfliktu.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cesta vp\u0159ed bude velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e1 kv\u016fli citliv\u00fdm ot\u00e1zk\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed Rusko a USA vy\u0159e\u0161it. 12.\u00fanor…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":72256,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,8595,102,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72255"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72255\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}