{"id":72029,"date":"2025-02-11T00:40:35","date_gmt":"2025-02-10T23:40:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=72029"},"modified":"2025-02-10T13:50:16","modified_gmt":"2025-02-10T12:50:16","slug":"hysterie-hladiny-mori-odhalena-udaje-noaa-vyvraceji-klimaticke-predpovedi-z-roku-1988","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/02\/11\/hysterie-hladiny-mori-odhalena-udaje-noaa-vyvraceji-klimaticke-predpovedi-z-roku-1988\/","title":{"rendered":"Hysterie hladiny mo\u0159\u00ed odhalena: \u00dadaje NOAA vyvracej\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi z roku 1988"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed data m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed od americk\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 agentury NOAA pro rok 2024 zn\u00ed jako lekce o tom, jak se v\u011bdeck\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi a realita mohou li\u0161it. Zat\u00edmco klimati\u010dt\u00ed hysterici a politici p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed dramatick\u00e9 zrychlen\u00ed vzestupu hladiny mo\u0159\u00ed ji\u017e od 80. let, skute\u010dn\u00e1 m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed vykresluj\u00ed zcela jin\u00fd obr\u00e1zek.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Vypov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed jsou zejm\u00e9na data z nejdel\u0161\u00ed souvisl\u00e9 s\u00e9rie\u00a0<\/span>m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na Battery Station v New Yorku<\/span><\/a> . Od roku 1856 je zde dokumentov\u00e1n relativn\u00ed vzestup hladiny mo\u0159e. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd trend 2,92 milimetru za rok se statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u011b neli\u0161\u00ed od hodnot minul\u00fdch desetilet\u00ed. To je v p\u0159\u00edkr\u00e9m rozporu s progn\u00f3zami p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00fdmi na pam\u00e1tn\u00e9m sly\u0161en\u00ed v Sen\u00e1tu v roce 1988.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9 dob\u011b \u201eexperti\u201c p\u0159edpov\u00eddali n\u00e1r\u016fst o asi 6,35 centimetru za desetilet\u00ed (nebo 63,5 centimetru b\u011bhem stolet\u00ed) \u2013 \u0161estkr\u00e1t v\u00edce, ne\u017e bylo do t\u00e9 doby pozorov\u00e1no. Tato p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f byla zalo\u017eena na p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed emis\u00ed CO2 nevyhnuteln\u011b povede k dramatick\u00e9mu zrychlen\u00ed vzestupu hladiny mo\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnost je jin\u00e1: Mezi lety 2014 a 2024 byla zm\u011bna rychlosti n\u00e1r\u016fstu na Battery Station pouh\u00fdch 0,08 milimetru za rok \u2013 zlomek p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00fdch hodnot. Podobn\u00e9 vzory jsou vid\u011bt na\u00a0<\/span>jin\u00fdch m\u011b\u0159ic\u00edch stanic\u00edch<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, jako je Honolulu a San Diego.<\/span><\/p>\n

Souvislosti jsou pozoruhodn\u00e9: Zat\u00edmco glob\u00e1ln\u00ed emise CO2 od roku 1988 vzrostly z 20,85 na 35,13 miliard tun \u2013 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v rozvojov\u00fdch zem\u00edch, jako je \u010c\u00edna a Indie \u2013, z\u00e1padn\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 zem\u011b ve skute\u010dnosti sv\u00e9 emise sn\u00ed\u017eily. USA a Evropa investovaly biliony do obnoviteln\u00fdch energi\u00ed s pochybn\u00fdmi v\u00fdsledky pro ekonomiku a energetickou bezpe\u010dnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
zm\u011bny hladiny mo\u0159e podle NOAA<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Mapa NOAA pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edch oblast\u00ed USA<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ukazuje v\u011bt\u0161inou m\u00edrn\u00e9 zm\u011bny relativn\u00ed hladiny mo\u0159e o 1,7 a\u017e 1,8 milimetr\u016f za rok \u2013 asi 17 a\u017e 18 centimetr\u016f za stolet\u00ed. M\u00edstn\u00ed odchylky lze do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry vysv\u011btlit geologick\u00fdmi faktory, jako je zdvih nebo pokles p\u016fdy. Tato data vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed ot\u00e1zky: Jak mohl b\u00fdt rozd\u00edl mezi modelov\u00fdmi p\u0159edpov\u011bdi a realitou tak velk\u00fd? A co je d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, jak\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry bychom m\u011bli vyvodit z tohoto zjevn\u00e9ho selh\u00e1n\u00ed klimatick\u00fdch progn\u00f3z pro na\u0161e sou\u010dasn\u00e1 politick\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed?<\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, data m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed NOAA ukazuj\u00ed jednu v\u011bc jasn\u011b: apokalyptick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi z roku 1988 se uk\u00e1zaly jako ok\u00e1zale chybn\u00e9. To by n\u00e1m m\u011blo d\u00e1t pauzu k zamy\u0161len\u00ed, kdy\u017e se dnes podobn\u011b dramatick\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed jako z\u00e1klad pro dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e1 politick\u00e1 a ekonomick\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed data m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed od americk\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 agentury NOAA pro rok 2024 zn\u00ed jako lekce o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":72030,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[5663,873,1144,497],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72029"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72029"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72029\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72029"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72029"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72029"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}