{"id":71873,"date":"2025-02-09T00:34:32","date_gmt":"2025-02-08T23:34:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=71873"},"modified":"2025-02-08T14:43:24","modified_gmt":"2025-02-08T13:43:24","slug":"skryta-nebezpeci-umele-inteligence-ve-financich-mohla-by-znicit-globalni-trh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/02\/09\/skryta-nebezpeci-umele-inteligence-ve-financich-mohla-by-znicit-globalni-trh\/","title":{"rendered":"Skryt\u00e1 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence ve financ\u00edch \u2013 mohla by zni\u010dit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jim Rickards ned\u00e1vno publikoval p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek o riziku AI pro p\u0159edplatitele\u00a0Insider Intel<\/em>\u00a0.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jim v n\u011bm prob\u00edr\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>dal\u0161\u00ed zp\u016fsob, jak by um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence mohla zruinovat trhy. Takov\u00fd, kter\u00fd je zcela nez\u00e1visl\u00fd na perspektiv\u011b DeepSeek, \u010c\u00edny a NVIDIA, o kter\u00e9 jsme informovali minul\u00fd t\u00fdden.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Dnes se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na jeho hlavn\u00ed body a podrobn\u011b je prozkoum\u00e1me.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tady je Jim:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eNejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed nast\u00e1v\u00e1, kdy\u017e velk\u00e1 skupina spr\u00e1vc\u016f aktiv ovl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edch aktiva v bilionech dolar\u016f pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 p\u0159i \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rizik stejn\u00e9 nebo podobn\u00e9 algoritmy um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence. Jedin\u00fd robot pracuj\u00edc\u00ed pro konkr\u00e9tn\u00edho spr\u00e1vce aktiv \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 mana\u017eerovi, aby prodal akcie na klesaj\u00edc\u00edm trhu. V n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt robot zmocn\u011bn zah\u00e1jit prodej bez dal\u0161\u00edho lidsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1sahu.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Pokud se to vezme jednotliv\u011b, m\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt nejlep\u0161\u00ed postup pro jednotliv\u00e9ho mana\u017eera. Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, prodejn\u00ed kask\u00e1da bez kompenzace n\u00e1kupn\u00edch objedn\u00e1vek od aktivn\u00edch mana\u017eer\u016f, specialist\u016f nebo spekulant\u016f vede k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9mu poklesu cen akci\u00ed. Zes\u00edlen\u00ed pomoc\u00ed smy\u010dek zp\u011btn\u00e9 vazby situaci zhor\u0161uje.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Jednotliv\u00e9 syst\u00e9my AI maj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 spou\u0161t\u011bc\u00ed body pro prodej. Ne v\u0161echny se spust\u00ed najednou, ale v\u0161echny se v ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku spust\u00ed, proto\u017ee prodeje vedou k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu prodeji, co\u017e zase spou\u0161t\u00ed v\u00edce automatizovan\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00e9 zvy\u0161uj\u00ed prodejn\u00ed tlak a tak d\u00e1le. Mezi roboty nejsou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00ed postrann\u00ed myslitel\u00e9. Integrace emoc\u00ed do syst\u00e9m\u016f je st\u00e1le v primitivn\u00ed f\u00e1zi.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Toto je n\u00e1zorn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad toho, pro\u010d jsem \u010detl Jimovo d\u00edlo. K t\u00e9mat\u016fm v\u017edy p\u0159istupuje z jedine\u010dn\u00e9 a promy\u0161len\u00e9 perspektivy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto riziko je zjevn\u011b re\u00e1ln\u00e9. Nyn\u00ed jsme v bod\u011b, kdy obchodn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti integruj\u00ed LLM (modely AI) do sv\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch algoritm\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co se stane, kdy\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina obchodn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 pro sv\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed stejn\u00fd software AI? Mimo jin\u00e9 je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee mnoho spr\u00e1vc\u016f aktiv integrovalo modely ChatGPT od OpenAI do sv\u00fdch algoritm\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e je DeepSeek R1 nov\u00fdm leskl\u00fdm objektem, mo\u017en\u00e1 zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st spole\u010dnosti p\u0159ejde na tento model.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 m\u00e1 DeepSeek \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed. Co se stane, kdy\u017e ChatGPT interpretuje data jako b\u00fd\u010d\u00ed, ale DeepSeek vid\u00ed stejn\u00e9 informace jako medv\u011bd\u00ed?<\/span><\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee uveden\u00ed nov\u00e9ho, \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00e9ho modelu by ve skute\u010dnosti mohlo zm\u011bnit sm\u011br trhu.\u00a0<\/span>Je nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, chyt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed a v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee akcie jsou o 40 % nadhodnocen\u00e9! Prodat!<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Nebo, mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b znepokojiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, co kdy\u017e v\u0161echny p\u0159edn\u00ed modely dojdou k t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 toto\u017en\u00fdm z\u00e1v\u011br\u016fm? Pokud se v\u0161ichni rozhodnou nakupovat nebo prod\u00e1vat z\u00e1rove\u0148, je to recept na probl\u00e9my. To by zes\u00edlilo pohyby na cest\u011b nahoru a dol\u016f a mohlo by to v\u00e9st k nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 smy\u010dce zp\u011btn\u00e9 vazby (jak poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 Jim).<\/span><\/p>\n

70 % trh\u016f<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Algoritmick\u00e9 (softwarov\u011b \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9) obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed nyn\u00ed p\u0159edstavuje odhadem 65-70 % objemu americk\u00e9ho akciov\u00e9ho trhu. A toto \u010d\u00edslo st\u00e1le roste.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nev\u00edme, jak hluboce jsou modely AI (zejm\u00e9na LLM) v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b integrov\u00e1ny do obchodn\u00edch algoritm\u016f. Investi\u010dn\u00ed software je notoricky z\u00e1hadn\u00fd. Ale m\u00e1m podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159edstavuje v\u00fdznamnou \u010d\u00e1st trhu a rychle roste.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017eeme nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee velk\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed firmy pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed LLM\/GPT k anal\u00fdze tr\u017en\u00edho sentimentu. \u010ctou a zpracov\u00e1vaj\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u00e9dia jako LinkedIn a X, aby zjistili, zda je ve\u0159ejnost boj\u00e1cn\u00e1 nebo chamtiv\u00e1. Tato data jsou pak integrov\u00e1na do z\u00e1kladn\u00edch algoritm\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Anal\u00fdza AI sentimentu m\u00e1 potenci\u00e1l b\u00fdt velmi u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fdm n\u00e1strojem pro obchodn\u00edky. Rizika zmi\u0148ovan\u00e1 Jimem v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 existuj\u00ed. V d\u016fsledku toho pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zaznamen\u00e1me zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 \u201echov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1da\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Anal\u00fdza sentimentu je jedna v\u011bc. Ale jsme v bod\u011b, kdy LLM skute\u010dn\u011b d\u011blaj\u00ed obchodn\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed u velk\u00e9ho procenta spole\u010dnost\u00ed? H\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee pokud tam je\u0161t\u011b nejsme, brzy tam budeme. Pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed model\u016f um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence je \u0159\u00e1dov\u011b levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e naj\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed absolvent\u016f Harvardu MBA a Princeton PhD.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak jsem ji\u017e zm\u00ednil, u\u017eivatel\u00e9 AI maj\u00ed tendenci sko\u010dit na nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a nej\u017ehav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed model. Nejprve dominoval ChatGPT, pot\u00e9 se nov\u00fdm trendem stal Claude z Anthropic. Nyn\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd DeepSeek d\u011bl\u00e1 vlny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuje velmi re\u00e1ln\u00e9 riziko reakc\u00ed st\u00e1da, pokud by v\u0161ichni jednali na z\u00e1klad\u011b podobn\u00fdch anal\u00fdz. A pokud v\u0161ichni neust\u00e1le upgraduj\u00ed na nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed model, existuje nespo\u010det zp\u016fsob\u016f, jak by to mohlo ovlivnit trhy v budoucnu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pan Rickards uzav\u00edr\u00e1 sv\u016fj p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek silnou metaforou:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eMo\u017en\u00e1 byste si m\u011bl znovu p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst Frankensteina Mary Shelleyov\u00e9. Rom\u00e1n je o Dr. stvo\u0159en\u00ed vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 Victorem Frankensteinem. V\u00fdraz \u201estvo\u0159en\u00ed\u201c nen\u00ed n\u00e1hodn\u00fd, ale m\u00e1 n\u00e1m p\u0159ipomenout v\u00fdraz \u201estvo\u0159itel\u201c. Na rozd\u00edl od filmov\u00e9ho zobrazen\u00ed tvora jako brut\u00e1ln\u00edho vra\u017eedn\u00e9ho monstra byla liter\u00e1rn\u00ed verze ve skute\u010dnosti vysoce inteligentn\u00ed, nau\u010dila se francouzsky, \u010detla Shakespeara a dok\u00e1zala v\u00e9st dlouh\u00e9 filozofick\u00e9 diskurzy.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Toto zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159irozen\u00e9ho jazyka a samou\u010den\u00ed je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b p\u0159esn\u011b to, o \u010dem AI je. Tvor lze pova\u017eovat za prvn\u00ed pln\u011b realizovan\u00fd syst\u00e9m um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence v literatu\u0159e. \u00dast\u0159edn\u00edm dilematem ve Frankensteinovi nebylo, zda je tvor inteligentn\u00ed (byl). Dilema bylo, zda m\u00e1 du\u0161i. M\u016f\u017eete si ud\u011blat vlastn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bry. Podle m\u011b to stvo\u0159en\u00ed nem\u011blo du\u0161i…ale mo\u017en\u00e1 si ji zaslou\u017eilo. Nyn\u00ed \u010del\u00edme stejn\u00e9mu dilematu s AI.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Jedn\u00edm ze zp\u016fsob\u016f, jak se p\u0159ipravit, je podpo\u0159it digit\u00e1ln\u00ed sv\u011bt analogov\u00fdm (zlat\u00fdm a st\u0159\u00edbrn\u00fdm), jak\u00a0<\/span>v\u010dera navrhl<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0Jim . Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b se mi zde l\u00edb\u00ed st\u0159\u00edbro (kter\u00e9 v dob\u011b psan\u00ed tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku vzrostlo o 3,6 % a vypad\u00e1 dob\u0159e).<\/span><\/p>\n

Zasv\u011bcen\u00ed p\u0159edplatitel\u00e9 Intelu si mohou p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst\u00a0Jimovu \u00faplnou anal\u00fdzu AI\u00a0<\/span>zde<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0. A pokud v\u00e1s toto t\u00e9ma zaj\u00edm\u00e1, v\u0159ele doporu\u010duji p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst si Jimovu novou knihu:\u00a0<\/span>MoneyGPT \u2013 AI and the Threat to the Global Economy<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0. Kniha nemohla b\u00fdt aktu\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jim Rickards ned\u00e1vno publikoval p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek o riziku AI pro p\u0159edplatitele\u00a0Insider Intel\u00a0. Jim v n\u011bm…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":71874,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3101,45,2194],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71873"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71873"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71873\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}