{"id":71754,"date":"2025-02-07T00:47:29","date_gmt":"2025-02-06T23:47:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=71754"},"modified":"2025-02-06T14:36:29","modified_gmt":"2025-02-06T13:36:29","slug":"andrew-korybko-proc-trump-pohrozil-upravou-nebo-zrusenim-indickych-sankci-pro-iransky-pristav-chabahar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/02\/07\/andrew-korybko-proc-trump-pohrozil-upravou-nebo-zrusenim-indickych-sankci-pro-iransky-pristav-chabahar\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Pro\u010d Trump pohrozil \u00fapravou nebo zru\u0161en\u00edm indick\u00fdch sankc\u00ed pro \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav Chabahar?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ohro\u017een\u00ed \u017eivotaschopnosti severoji\u017en\u00edho dopravn\u00edho koridoru tla\u010d\u00ed na \u00cdr\u00e1n, Indii a Rusko jedn\u00edm \u0161mahem v diplomaticko-ekonomick\u00e9m mistrovsk\u00e9m tahu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump 2.0 je\u00a0pova\u017eov\u00e1n za indofiln\u00edho\u00a0<\/a>z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti kv\u016fli tomu, \u017ee jeho t\u00fdm ch\u00e1pe, jak m\u016f\u017ee Indie slou\u017eit jako \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e1 ekonomicko-vojensk\u00e1 protiv\u00e1ha \u010c\u00edny v Eurasii, p\u0159esto pr\u00e1v\u011b podepsal\u00a0v\u00fdkonn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkaz\u00a0<\/a>k \u201eupraven\u00ed nebo zru\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdjimek ze sankc\u00ed\u2026 v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 se t\u00fdkaj\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstavn\u00edho projektu Chabahar\u201c. Tento p\u0159\u00edstav je st\u011b\u017eejn\u00ed pro\u00a0severoji\u017en\u00ed dopravn\u00ed koridor\u00a0<\/a>(NSTC), o kter\u00fd se Indie op\u00edr\u00e1, aby vyv\u00e1\u017eil \u010c\u00ednu\u00a0ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii\u00a0<\/a>a zabr\u00e1nil\u00a0nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti Ruska\u00a0<\/a>na n\u00ed, co\u017e je oboj\u00ed v souladu s c\u00edli USA.<\/p>\n

Bidenova administrativa\u00a0tak\u00e9 pohrozila zru\u0161en\u00edm t\u00e9to v\u00fdjimky\u00a0<\/a>, i kdy\u017e ne tak p\u0159\u00edmo nebo ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed cestou, jako to pr\u00e1v\u011b ud\u011blal Trump 2.0, v reakci na\u00a0desetiletou dohodu o p\u0159\u00edstavu Chabahar\u00a0<\/a>mezi Indi\u00ed a \u00cdr\u00e1nem z lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho kv\u011btna. Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hrozby se shodovaly se\u00a0zpr\u00e1vou indick\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy\u00a0<\/a>o tom, jak n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed doprava na t\u00e9to trase loni stoupla o 43 % a kontejnerov\u00e1 doprava o 34 %. P\u0159edch\u00e1z\u00ed tak\u00e9 cest\u011b premi\u00e9ra Modiho do DC koncem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho t\u00fddne, kde se\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee budou diskutovat\u00a0<\/a>o obchodn\u00edch vazb\u00e1ch, vojensk\u00fdch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch a Rusku.<\/p>\n

Posledn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st by mohla m\u00edt podobu Indie vysv\u011btluj\u00edc\u00ed roli, kterou hraje v preventivn\u00edm odvr\u00e1cen\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u011b nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti Ruska na \u010c\u00edn\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm\u00a0rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9ho n\u00e1kupu zlevn\u011bn\u00e9 ropy\u00a0<\/a>a pl\u00e1n\u016f, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed roz\u0161i\u0159ovat obchod v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m sektoru nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d NSTC. Modi by proto mohl po\u017e\u00e1dat o zpro\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed, jinak by se Indie mohla bu\u010f c\u00edtit nucena riskovat krizi s USA t\u00edm, \u017ee se j\u00ed postav\u00ed proti Rusku a \u00cdr\u00e1nu, nebo upust\u00ed od sv\u00e9ho eurasijsk\u00e9ho vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed k jejich vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 \u0161kod\u011b.<\/p>\n

Pot\u00e9, co jsme vysv\u011btlili strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam Chabahar Port pro USA t\u00edm, \u017ee jej Indie vyu\u017eila k vyrovn\u00e1n\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho vlivu ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii a na Rusko, je nyn\u00ed \u010das pod\u00edvat se na d\u016fvody, pro\u010d by Trump riskoval ohro\u017een\u00ed tohoto konkr\u00e9tn\u00edho ustanoven\u00ed ve sv\u00e9m posledn\u00edm exekutivn\u00edm na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. N\u00e1sleduj\u00ed t\u0159i vysv\u011btlen\u00ed, kter\u00e1 se vz\u00e1jemn\u011b nevylu\u010duj\u00ed. Mohlo se dokonce st\u00e1t, \u017ee Trump m\u011bl na mysli pouze to prvn\u00ed, ale pak si uv\u011bdomil, \u017ee druh\u00fd a t\u0159et\u00ed mohou b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 pou\u017eity v jeho prosp\u011bch.<\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed pochyb o tom, \u017ee \u00faprava nebo zru\u0161en\u00ed indick\u00e9ho zpro\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed pro p\u0159\u00edstav Chabahar m\u00e1 za c\u00edl donutit \u00cdr\u00e1n k \u00fastupk\u016fm v\u016f\u010di USA, proto\u017ee exekutivn\u00ed na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, ve kter\u00e9m je to na\u0159\u00edzeno, se v\u00fdslovn\u011b t\u00fdk\u00e1 obnoven\u00ed politiky \u201emaxim\u00e1ln\u00edho tlaku\u201c jeho prvn\u00edho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed. Budoucnost \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ekonomiky je na NSTC je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce z\u00e1visl\u00e1, ne\u017e indick\u00e1 a rusk\u00e1 natolik ohro\u017euj\u00ed jej\u00ed \u017eivotaschopnost, \u017ee m\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161it \u0161ance, \u017ee spln\u00ed jeho po\u017eadavky na rakety a jadernou energii.<\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Indie a Rusko maj\u00ed tak\u00e9 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pod\u00edly v NSTC, mohl by tak\u00e9 doufat, \u017ee jeden nebo oba by pak mohli povzbudit \u00cdr\u00e1n, aby uzav\u0159el (pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pok\u0159ivenou) dohodu s USA v\u00fdm\u011bnou za to, \u017ee si jako odm\u011bnu ponech\u00e1 podstatu\u00a0p\u016fvodn\u00edho z\u0159eknut\u00ed se sankc\u00ed za sv\u00e9 prvn\u00ed funk\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>. V n\u00e1vaznosti na to a bez ohledu na to, zda ji\u017e pl\u00e1noval n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed, \u010di nikoli, je dal\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed, \u017ee jeho hrozba pozm\u011bnit nebo zru\u0161it tuto v\u00fdjimku m\u00e1 za c\u00edl vyvinout tlak na Indii v bilater\u00e1ln\u00edm kontextu.<\/p>\n

Trump\u00a0d\u0159\u00edve kritizoval\u00a0<\/a>Modiho pou\u017eit\u00ed cel, ale p\u0159ed jejich summitem se objevily zv\u011bsti o\u00a0zah\u00e1jen\u00ed rozhovor\u016f o voln\u00e9m obchodu\u00a0<\/a>, tak\u017ee by si Trump mohl myslet, \u017ee vyhro\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed Modiho eurasijsk\u00fdm balancov\u00e1n\u00edm by mohlo v\u00e9st k obchodn\u00edm \u00fastupk\u016fm. Pro Indii m\u00e1 velk\u00fd strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam zabr\u00e1nit Rusku st\u00e1t se mlad\u0161\u00edm partnerem \u010c\u00edny, aby Indie mohla p\u0159istoupit na kompromis v obchodu s USA kv\u016fli v\u00fdjimce z Chabaharu, aby si zachovala tento akt vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed, ani\u017e by riskovala krizi s USA t\u00edm, \u017ee bude vzdorovat hrozb\u00e1m \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Posledn\u00edm vysv\u011btlen\u00edm, pro\u010d Trump pohrozil \u00fapravou nebo zru\u0161en\u00edm t\u00e9to v\u00fdjimky, je to, \u017ee chce tla\u010dit na Rusko t\u00edm, \u017ee mu p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1, \u017ee alternativn\u00ed ventil tlaku z\u00e1padn\u00edch sankc\u00ed, na kter\u00fd se spol\u00e9h\u00e1 p\u0159i preventivn\u00edm odvr\u00e1cen\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u011b nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti na \u010c\u00edn\u011b, by mohl b\u00fdt brzy p\u0159eru\u0161en. \u00da\u010delem by mohlo b\u00fdt zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnosti, \u017ee Putin p\u0159ijme\u00a0tvrd\u00e9 kompromisy\u00a0<\/a>ohledn\u011b sv\u00fdch\u00a0maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f\u00a0<\/a>ve\u00a0speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operaci\u00a0<\/a>v\u00fdm\u011bnou za to, \u017ee si Indie tuto v\u00fdjimku ponech\u00e1, a t\u00edm udr\u017e\u00ed NSTC \u017eivotaschopnou.<\/p>\n

V tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by Rusko bylo nuceno zvolit si mezi t\u011bmito tvrd\u00fdmi kompromisy nebo se ze zoufalstv\u00ed st\u00e1t mlad\u0161\u00edm partnerem \u010c\u00edny a pokra\u010dovat ve speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operaci ve snaze o dosa\u017een\u00ed sv\u00fdch maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f, co\u017e by znamenalo prodej v\u0161ech p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f \u010c\u00edn\u011b za v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed ceny. Putin to dosud odkl\u00e1dal, dokonce\u00a0odm\u00edtl z\u00edskat takovou dohodu\u00a0<\/a>o dlouho vyjedn\u00e1van\u00e9m ropovodu Power of Siberia II b\u011bhem sv\u00e9 posledn\u00ed cesty do Pekingu loni v kv\u011btnu, tak\u017ee by mohl uzav\u0159\u00edt dohodu s Trumpem.<\/p>\n

V\u00edce jasnosti se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 do konce m\u011bs\u00edce, proto\u017ee Modiho cesta do DC se bude konat\u00a0od 12. do 14. \u00fanora\u00a0<\/a>, p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed mnichovsk\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed konference je\u00a0od 14. do 16. \u00fanora\u00a0<\/a>, Trump\u016fv zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vyslanec pro Ukrajinu a Rusko Keith Kellogg pot\u00e9\u00a0\u00fadajn\u011b nav\u0161t\u00edv\u00ed Kyjev 20. \u00fanora,\u00a0<\/a>aby se pod\u011blil o Trump\u016fv m\u00edrov\u00fd pl\u00e1n s Moskvou pot\u00e9, co o tom nejprve informoval z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u016fdce a pot\u00e9 by o tom mohl b\u00fdt v Mnichov\u011b. sousedstv\u00ed, pokud mu Trump nezavol\u00e1 prvn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg\u00a0<\/a>uvedl, \u017ee Trump\u016fv pl\u00e1n zahrnuje \u201epotenci\u00e1ln\u00ed zmrazen\u00ed konfliktu a ponech\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed okupovan\u00e9ho rusk\u00fdmi silami v limbu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 poskytnut\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk Ukrajin\u011b\u201c, aby se pro Ukrajinu vytvo\u0159ily podm\u00ednky pro po\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed dlouho odkl\u00e1dan\u00fdch prezidentsk\u00fdch a parlamentn\u00edch voleb. Tato posloupnost byla p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1na n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed p\u0159ed touto zpr\u00e1vou\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00e1 poukazovala na to, \u017ee by to od Putina vy\u017eadovalo kompromisy.<\/p>\n

Mluv\u010d\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho v\u016fdce Dmitrij Peskov pak prozradil, \u017ee rozhovory se Zelensk\u00fdm jsou\u00a0hypoteticky mo\u017en\u00e9\u00a0<\/a>, i kdy\u017e Moskva pova\u017euje setrv\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho v\u016fdce za nelegitimn\u00ed v obr\u00e1cen\u00ed kremelsk\u00e9 politiky, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee Putin mo\u017en\u00e1 v\u00e1\u017en\u011b uva\u017euje o n\u011bjak\u00fdch kompromisech. To nemus\u00ed souviset s Trumpov\u00fdm v\u00fdkonn\u00fdm na\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm ze dne p\u0159ed Peskovovou pozn\u00e1mkou, ale je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed tlak souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s NSTC by mohl p\u0159isp\u011bt k p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed Putina, aby uzav\u0159el dohodu.<\/p>\n

S ohledem na poznatky, kter\u00e9 byly sd\u00edleny v t\u00e9to anal\u00fdze, je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pravda, \u017ee Trumpova hrozba upravit nebo zru\u0161it v\u00fdjimku indick\u00fdch sankc\u00ed pro \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav Chabahar je motivov\u00e1na t\u00edm, \u017ee chce zatla\u010dit na \u00cdr\u00e1n, Indii a Rusko jedn\u00edm tahem diplomaticko-ekonomick\u00fdm mistrovsk\u00fdm tahem. Neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b vydoluje kompromisy (v n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech dokonce \u00fastupky), kter\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, ale jen to, \u017ee se sna\u017e\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslove\u010dn\u011b zab\u00edt t\u0159i mouchy jednou ranou, co\u017e je velmi chytr\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ohro\u017een\u00ed \u017eivotaschopnosti severoji\u017en\u00edho dopravn\u00edho koridoru tla\u010d\u00ed na \u00cdr\u00e1n, Indii a Rusko jedn\u00edm \u0161mahem v diplomaticko-ekonomick\u00e9m…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":71755,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,760,350,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71754"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71754"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71754\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}