{"id":71181,"date":"2025-01-29T00:39:49","date_gmt":"2025-01-28T23:39:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=71181"},"modified":"2025-01-28T11:31:34","modified_gmt":"2025-01-28T10:31:34","slug":"zbynek-fiala-masakr-umele-inteligence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/29\/zbynek-fiala-masakr-umele-inteligence\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Masakr um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch 560 miliard dolar\u016f hodnoty americk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti NVIDIA se vypa\u0159ilo na z\u00e1klad\u011b zpr\u00e1v, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 DeepSeek dok\u00e1\u017ee jej\u00ed nejlep\u0161\u00ed \u010dipy obej\u00edt za desetinu ceny.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Souboj o prvenstv\u00ed v\u00a0um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligenci p\u0159edstavuje strategickou v\u00fdzvu, kter\u00e1 byla patrn\u00e1 i z\u00a0toho, kolik vrcholn\u00fdch osobnost\u00ed z\u00a0t\u00e9to technologick\u00e9 oblasti se dok\u00e1zalo natla\u010dit mezi pozvan\u00e9 na inaugurac\u00ed americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa.<\/p>\n

Te\u010f jsou jako opa\u0159en\u00ed. P\u0159edstava americk\u00e9 nadvl\u00e1dy byla drtiv\u011b rozlept\u00e1na zpr\u00e1vou, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 konkurence usp\u011bla s\u00a0jinou v\u011btv\u00ed v\u00fdvoje AI, kter\u00e1 dosahuje srovnateln\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu s desetkr\u00e1t ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1klady. A \u017ee se obejde bez \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00fdch \u010dip\u016f navrhovan\u00fdch americkou spole\u010dnost\u00ed NVIDIA, kterou jej\u00ed technologick\u00e9 prvenstv\u00ed vy\u0161vihlo na \u0161pici nejcenn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed sv\u011bta.<\/p>\n

Akcie NVIDIA ztratily 18 procent b\u011bhem obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed. Poprask, kter\u00fd zavl\u00e1dl na sv\u011btov\u00fdch burz\u00e1ch, nem\u00e1 pam\u011btn\u00edka. P\u0159i obrovsk\u00e9 kapitalizaci t\u00e9to spole\u010dnosti to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee panika j\u00ed sp\u00e1lila 560 miliard dolar\u016f. To m\u00e1te, jako kdy\u017e m\u00e1vnut\u00edm kouzeln\u00e9ho proutku zmiz\u00ed hodnota ve\u0161ker\u00e9 v\u00fdroby slu\u017eeb \u010cR za dva roky.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/NVDA:US?sref=mxal0jUQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Shodou okolnost\u00ed jde o \u010d\u00e1stku, o kter\u00e9 se je\u0161t\u011b v\u00a0p\u00e1tek mluvilo jako o nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed investici americk\u00fdch d\u011bjin. Nov\u00fd americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump, hnan\u00fd viz\u00ed obnovy americk\u00e9 hegemonie, ohl\u00e1sil hned v\u00a0prvn\u00edm t\u00fddnu sv\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, \u017ee vytvo\u0159\u00ed podm\u00ednky pro (soukrom\u00e9) investice do datov\u00fdch center pro um\u011blou inteligenci nejprve ve v\u00fd\u0161i 100 miliard dolar\u016f, a pozd\u011bji dokonce 500 miliard dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Reakce na Trump\u016fv pl\u00e1n byla okam\u017eit\u00e1, Meta (vlastn\u00edk Facebooku) sl\u00edbila, \u017ee je\u0161t\u011b letos zdvojn\u00e1sob\u00ed sv\u016fj investi\u010dn\u00ed pl\u00e1n na 65 miliard dolar\u016f, co\u017e zvedlo cenu jej\u00edch akci\u00ed na rekordn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148. Dal\u0161\u00ed giganti OpenAI, SoftBank a Oracle vytvo\u0159ili spole\u010dn\u00fd podnik pro v\u00fdstavbu datov\u00fdch center a infrastruktury pro AI za 100 miliard dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee u\u017e 20. ledna, v\u00a0den Trumpovy inaugurace, prakticky nezn\u00e1m\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost DeepSeek ohl\u00e1sila, \u017ee jej\u00ed nov\u00fd model um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence R1 um\u00ed tot\u00e9\u017e jako konkuren\u010dn\u00ed o1 od OpenAI, ale za zlomek ceny a se zlomkem energetick\u00fdch n\u00e1rok\u016f.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159ed to zaujalo je p\u00e1r expert\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed d\u00edlem v\u00fdskali nad\u0161en\u00edm a d\u00edlem brumlali pochybnosti. P\u0159em\u00edtalo se, jak\u00e9 triky jsou v\u00a0pozad\u00ed. Kolik skute\u010dn\u011b st\u00e1l v\u00fdvoj za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 te\u010f p\u0159edvedlo p\u00e1r test\u016f, ale neukazuje pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd rozm\u011br probl\u00e9m\u016f. Jestli je pravda, \u017ee pracuje se star\u0161\u00edmi chipy, proto\u017ee pak by byl vtip ve strategii proces\u016f, kter\u00e9 b\u011bhaj\u00ed po krat\u0161\u00edch a p\u0159\u00edm\u011bj\u0161\u00edch drah\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Do toho se nebudeme zapojovat. Zdrcuj\u00edc\u00ed odpov\u011b\u010f na burz\u00e1ch nazna\u010duje, \u017ee analytici nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch fond\u016f, kter\u00e9 tyto hra\u010dky z\u00e1sobuj\u00ed kapit\u00e1lem, berou riziko slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Zrovna v\u00a0NVIDIA jsou velk\u00fdmi akcion\u00e1\u0159i nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 fondy Blackrock nebo Vanguard.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00fdch technologi\u00ed je cesta ba\u017einou. Kdo je trochu odrostlej\u0161\u00ed, v\u00ed, jak krut\u00e9 byly zvraty t\u0159eba na trhu pam\u011bt\u00ed, kde mali\u010dk\u00e9 fle\u0161ky vyhubily plastov\u00e9 disky. Nebo jak streaming zru\u0161il hudebn\u00ed nosi\u010de. Usko\u010dit ze \u0161patn\u00e9 stezky p\u0159itom nen\u00ed snadn\u00e9. Guru inovac\u00ed, harvardsk\u00fd profesor Clayton Christensen mluv\u00ed o \u201edilematu inov\u00e1tora\u201c, kter\u00fd je mu\u010den p\u0159edstavou, \u017ee by m\u011bl dosavadn\u00ed investice zahodit, kdy\u017e vid\u00ed nad\u011bjn\u00e9 nedoch\u016fd\u010de n\u011b\u010deho p\u0159evratn\u011b nov\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e d\u00e1 p\u0159ednost zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed toho st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho, za v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed prachy a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cenu, jen odd\u00e1l\u00ed a prohloub\u00ed p\u00e1d, a\u017e star\u00fd trh \u00fapln\u011b zmiz\u00ed. V\u00fdrobce nejlep\u0161\u00edch barevn\u00fdch film\u016f Kodak by mohl vypr\u00e1v\u011bt. A te\u010f si zkuste p\u0159edstavit, kolik u\u017e se do um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence nainvestovalo! Zbyte\u010dn\u011b??<\/p>\n

DeepSeek je prakticky nezn\u00e1m\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 firma, proto\u017ee zat\u00edm nevystupuje na trhu. D\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ednost svobod\u011b akademick\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce, proto\u017ee jinak by podl\u00e9hala docela n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed regulaci um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence. Je\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je jej\u00ed metoda \u201eotev\u0159en\u00fdch inovac\u00ed\u201c, to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee sv\u016fj k\u00f3d zve\u0159ejn\u00ed. Je to st\u00e1le jak\u00e9si glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 v\u00fdzkumnick\u00e9 cvi\u010den\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jej\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed konkurent OpenAI, kter\u00e1 p\u0159i\u0161la jako prvn\u00ed s\u00a0generativn\u00ed um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed ChatGPT, byla taky otev\u0159en\u00e1 (to je to \u201eopen\u201c). Jen\u017ee zakladatel Sam Altman m\u011bl pocit, \u017ee bez tr\u017en\u00edho \u00fasp\u011bchu u\u017e se d\u00e1l nedostane. T\u00edm se dostal do sporu s\u00a0partnersk\u00fdm Microsoftem.<\/p>\n

Nakonec se to urovnalo, ale jedn\u00e1 se o strategick\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 spole\u010dnost sv\u011bta si nedok\u00e1\u017ee koupit a uzav\u0159\u00edt ve sv\u00fdch\u00a0laborato\u0159\u00edch tolik \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00fdch expert\u016f, kolik jich p\u0159il\u00e1k\u00e1 kvalitn\u00ed z\u00e1m\u011br, kter\u00fd je otev\u0159en\u00fd ka\u017ed\u00e9mu, kdo k\u00a0tomu m\u00e1 co \u0159\u00edct. Legendou se stal prvn\u00ed velk\u00fd otev\u0159en\u00fd projekt internetu Wikipedie, ale v\u00a0oboru um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence to jde tak\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Je tam n\u011bjak\u00e1 \u201elicence MIT\u201c, jej\u00ed\u017e podstatu nezn\u00e1m, ale p\u016fjde z\u0159ejm\u011b o to, aby to n\u011bkdo nezmr\u0161il. Ve skute\u010dnosti se otev\u0159en\u00fd k\u00f3d moc snadno ukr\u00e1st ned\u00e1, proto\u017ee tomu rozum\u00ed\u00a0jen p\u00e1r lid\u00ed a ti se mezi sebou znaj\u00ed. Vypadnout z\u00a0tohoto spole\u010denstv\u00ed se rovn\u00e1 d\u00e1vn\u00e9mu trestu smrti, kdy h\u0159\u00ed\u0161n\u00edk byl\u00a0vyhn\u00e1n do pustiny, kde bude jen on a div\u00e1 zv\u011b\u0159.<\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va o tom, \u017ee DeepSeek zvl\u00e1dne nejn\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fakoly um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence bez \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00e9ho n\u00e1\u0159ad\u00ed, musel opa\u0159it i minul\u00e9ho prezidenta Joe Bidena. Ten je\u0161t\u011b v posledn\u00edm t\u00fddnu sv\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy stanovil nov\u00e1 omezen\u00ed pro export nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch \u010dip\u016f. \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 m\u011bli b\u00fdt udr\u017eov\u00e1ni o dv\u011b generace zp\u00e1tky. M\u011b\u0159\u00ed se to hlavn\u011b hustotou obvod\u016f nacpan\u00fdch na k\u0159em\u00edkovou desti\u010dku, kdy\u017e ty nejlep\u0161\u00ed hon\u00ed bity po drah\u00e1ch \u0161irok\u00fdch pouh\u00e9 2 nanometry (nm, miliontiny milimetru), zat\u00edmco do \u010c\u00edny se sm\u011bly prodat jen ty se 7 nm.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.business-standard.com\/world-news\/white-house-imposes-new-export-curbs-on-nvidia-ai-chips-for-china-russia-125011300779_1.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Vedle toho, \u017ee mal\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 parta obklopen\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00edm tv\u016fr\u010d\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00edm dok\u00e1zala tot\u00e9\u017e jako americk\u00fd gigant st\u0159e\u017e\u00edc\u00ed sv\u00e1 tajemstv\u00ed, je tu je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159evratn\u00e1 zm\u011bna. Kapacity AI mohou b\u00fdt men\u0161\u00ed a dostupn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed specifick\u00fdm u\u017eivatel\u016fm. N\u011bkter\u00e9 zjednodu\u0161en\u00e9 modely se maj\u00ed vejit do lep\u0161\u00edho notesu.<\/p>\n

To mo\u017en\u00e1 chv\u00edli potrv\u00e1, ale u\u017e te\u010f je t\u0159eba znovu uva\u017eovat o tom, jakou infrastrukturu bude nov\u00e1 generace um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence po\u017eadovat. Donald Trump vyj\u00e1d\u0159il obavu, \u017ee pro jeho pl\u00e1ny s\u00a0AI nebude dost elekt\u0159iny. Proto se tak rozhodn\u011b pustil do odchodu od zelen\u00e9 transformace. Bez toho by se nehnul z\u00a0m\u00edsta. Americk\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny u\u017e se vr\u00e1tily k\u00a0uhl\u00ed. B\u0159idlicov\u00fd plyn, kter\u00fd se m\u00e1 znovu t\u011b\u017eit, kde se d\u00e1\u00a0(\u201eDrill, baby, dril!\u201c)<\/em>, hraje v elekt\u0159in\u011b okrajovou roli.<\/p>\n

Datov\u00e1 centra, obrovsk\u00fd \u017erout elekt\u0159iny, mohou b\u00fdt men\u0161\u00ed a investice do elektr\u00e1ren nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt tak nal\u00e9hav\u00e9? D\u00e1 se na to vsadit? To je pr\u00e1v\u011b to dilema, kter\u00e9 se ohl\u00e1silo \u00faprkem od akci\u00ed v\u00fdrobce \u010dip\u016f, kter\u00fd to m\u00e1 mo\u017en\u00e1 spo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Je tu toti\u017e je\u0161t\u011b jedna \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 novinka, kter\u00e1 se t\u00fdk\u00e1 unik\u00e1tn\u00ed technologie v\u00fdroby t\u011bch nejn\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch \u010dip\u016f s\u00a0vodi\u010di tenink\u00fdmi na 2 nm, tedy jen na p\u00e1r atom\u016f. Vyr\u00e1b\u00ed se technologi\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 extr\u00e9mn\u00ed ultrafialov\u00e1 litografie.<\/p>\n

Abych to zkr\u00e1til, jedn\u00e1 se o vyu\u017eit\u00ed z\u00e1blesk\u016f vznikl\u00fdch z\u00e1sahem vysokonergetick\u00e9ho laserov\u00e9ho v\u00fdboje do nepatrn\u00e9 kapi\u010dky c\u00ednu. Z\u00e1blesk sv\u011btla tak vysok\u00e9 frekvence, jakou jinak nedok\u00e1\u017eeme vytvo\u0159it, se pak \u017eene p\u0159es soustavu zrcadel a\u017e ke vznikaj\u00edc\u00edmu \u010dipu, kter\u00e9mu kresl\u00ed jeho obvody. Jen nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed frekvence sv\u011btla zvl\u00e1dne tu teninkou \u010d\u00e1ru.<\/p>\n

Litografick\u00e9 stroje ASML, kter\u00e9 to um\u00ed, dok\u00e1\u017eou vyrobit jen v\u00a0Nizozemsku. Ta kapi\u010dka c\u00ednu se vyst\u0159eluje na to spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 m\u00edsto a mus\u00edte se do n\u00ed trefit v letu, po\u0159\u00e1d, milionkr\u00e1t, a znovu milionkr\u00e1t. V\u017edycky. Pr\u00fd je to nejn\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed technologie sv\u011bta.<\/p>\n

Pro \u010c\u00ednu je na stroje ASML embargo, jak jinak. Jen\u017ee v\u00fdzkum\u00e1k v\u00a0\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m Charbinu loni p\u0159edvedl jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed cestu, jak to vysokofrekven\u010dn\u00ed sv\u011btlo vybudit. Jeho laser p\u00e1l\u00ed do c\u00ednov\u00e9 mlhy, plazmatu. Z\u00e1blesk tam je. Te\u010f je\u0161t\u011b, aby tam byl v\u017edycky a zam\u00ed\u0159il na to spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 m\u00edsto.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/chinaworldleader.quora.com\/Chinas-HARBIN-Institutes-SHOCKING-Breakthrough-Whats-NEXT-for-ASML-The-Harbin-Institute-has-made-a-groundbreaking<\/a><\/p>\n

Hotov\u00e9 to nen\u00ed, ale kdo by nem\u011bl z\u00a0t\u011bhle \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016f nervy nadranc. Embargo m\u00e1 slou\u017eit k\u00a0tomu, aby n\u011bco nem\u011bli, ne aby si to ud\u011blali sami\u2026<\/p>\n

(Upraveno s \u010derstv\u00fdmi \u010d\u00edsly z\u00a0 pond\u011bln\u00edho ve\u010dera)<\/em><\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch 560 miliard dolar\u016f hodnoty americk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti NVIDIA se vypa\u0159ilo na z\u00e1klad\u011b zpr\u00e1v, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62702,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[3101,1042,30,2194,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71181"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71181"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71181\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71181"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71181"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71181"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}