{"id":70924,"date":"2025-01-25T00:47:10","date_gmt":"2025-01-24T23:47:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=70924"},"modified":"2025-01-24T12:28:27","modified_gmt":"2025-01-24T11:28:27","slug":"andrew-korybko-jaky-dopad-mohou-mit-nejnovejsi-energeticke-sankce-usa-na-vztahy-rusko-indie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/25\/andrew-korybko-jaky-dopad-mohou-mit-nejnovejsi-energeticke-sankce-usa-na-vztahy-rusko-indie\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Jak\u00fd dopad mohou m\u00edt nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00e9 sankce USA na vztahy Rusko-Indie?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Trumpova preference sankc\u00ed a jeho nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hrozba zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed t\u011bch sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch by mohly vykolejit pe\u010dliv\u00e9 mnohostrann\u00e9 spojenectv\u00ed Indie mezi USA a Ruskem t\u00edm, \u017ee by ji donutilo vybrat si mezi nimi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

M\u00e9dia byla zaplavena\u00a0zpr\u00e1vami\u00a0<\/a>spekuluj\u00edc\u00edmi o tom, \u017ee rusko-indick\u00e9 vztahy by mohly utrp\u011bt v d\u016fsledku posledn\u00edch energetick\u00fdch sankc\u00ed USA, proto\u017ee se ned\u00e1vno soust\u0159edily na rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd dovoz zlevn\u011bn\u00e9 ropy z Dill\u00ed z Moskvy, kter\u00fd by mohl b\u00fdt ohro\u017een. nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jednostrann\u00e1 omezen\u00ed. Nejmenovan\u00fd indick\u00fd zdroj\u00a0m\u00e9di\u00edm \u0159ekl,\u00a0<\/a>\u017ee \u201eRusko najde zp\u016fsoby, jak se k n\u00e1m dostat\u201c a p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl strm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed slevy, aby \u010delilo nov\u00fdm sank\u010dn\u00edm rizik\u016fm, tak\u017ee zat\u00edm nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 d\u016fvod\u016f k obav\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

Opat\u0159en\u00ed za\u010dnou platit a\u017e v b\u0159eznu, tak\u017ee je st\u00e1le \u010das, aby ob\u011b strany napl\u00e1novaly n\u00e1hradn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, z nich\u017e jedna m\u00e1 podobu toho, \u017ee Indie ned\u00e1vno\u00a0roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila sv\u016fj fond rusk\u00fdch pojistitel\u016f\u00a0<\/a>tak, aby zahrnoval spole\u010dnosti bez sankc\u00ed, i kdy\u017e z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejasn\u00e9, o co jde. Ud\u011bl\u00e1m to s ruskou sankcionovanou \u201est\u00ednovou flotilou\u201c. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je to krok spr\u00e1vn\u00fdm sm\u011brem a ukazuje d\u016fle\u017eitost, kterou Indie p\u0159ikl\u00e1d\u00e1 pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed ve velk\u00e9m dovozu zlevn\u011bn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 ropy, jej\u00ed\u017e strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam bude nyn\u00ed vysv\u011btlen.<\/p>\n

Nejen, \u017ee to pomohlo odvr\u00e1tit polykrizi za posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolik let, kter\u00e1 mohla katalyzovat katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed kask\u00e1dov\u00e9 d\u016fsledky nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d glob\u00e1ln\u00edm Jihem, jak jsme se\u00a0zde dotkli\u00a0<\/a>koncem roku 2023, ale tak\u00e9 to udr\u017eelo p\u016fsobivou trajektorii r\u016fstu Indie na spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 cest\u011b, \u010d\u00edm\u017e si zachovala svou atraktivitu pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investice. . Indie nav\u00edc preventivn\u011b odvr\u00e1tila potenci\u00e1ln\u011b nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159enou z\u00e1vislost Ruska na \u010c\u00edn\u011b t\u00edm, \u017ee diverzifikovala sv\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy, \u010d\u00edm\u017e zabr\u00e1nila Rusku st\u00e1t se juniorsk\u00fdm partnerem \u010c\u00edny.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

To\u00a0zastavilo \u010d\u00ednsko-americk\u00e9 bi-multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed trendy\u00a0<\/a>a usnadnilo\u00a0tri-multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed p\u0159echodnou f\u00e1zi\u00a0<\/a>glob\u00e1ln\u00edho syst\u00e9mov\u00e9ho p\u0159echodu ke komplexn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed multipolarit\u011b (\u201emultiplexit\u011b\u201c). N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed politici by tento v\u00fdsledek mohli pova\u017eovat za \u0161kodliv\u00fd pro velk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy jejich zem\u011b, ale na druhou stranu se Rusko je\u0161t\u011b mus\u00ed prom\u011bnit v z\u00e1sobu surovin pro p\u0159epl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed vzestupu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 supervelmoci, jak\u00fdm by se ji\u017e mohlo st\u00e1t, kdyby nebylo Indie. diverzifikace tok\u016f rusk\u00fdch energetick\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f.<\/p>\n

Velk\u00fdm strategick\u00fdm z\u00e1jmem Indie je zabr\u00e1nit tomu, aby se to stalo kv\u016fli mo\u017enosti, \u017ee by \u010c\u00edna jednoho dne mohla vyu\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9 nad\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 partnerstv\u00ed nad Ruskem, aby Rusko omezilo a nakonec pozastavilo (bez ohledu na z\u00e1minku) nov\u00e9 a n\u00e1hradn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky do Indie. Rusk\u00e9 p\u0159epl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed vzestupu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 supervelmoci by nav\u00edc mohlo Indii p\u0159im\u011bt, aby se stala juniorsk\u00fdm partnerem USA, co\u017e by mohlo v\u00e9st k v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm \u00fastupk\u016fm, pokud jde o jej\u00ed t\u011b\u017ece vydobytou strategickou autonomii.<\/p>\n

Tyto imperativy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Indie ud\u011bl\u00e1 v\u0161e, co je v jej\u00edch sil\u00e1ch, aby si udr\u017eela sv\u016fj rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd dovoz zlevn\u011bn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 ropy, proto\u017ee alternativou je riskovat, \u017ee se Rusko stane juniorsk\u00fdm partnerem \u010c\u00edny se v\u0161\u00edm, co by znamenalo p\u0159etvo\u0159it glob\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9mov\u00fd p\u0159echod obnoven\u00edm \u010d\u00ednsko-americk\u00e9 biologie. -multipolarita. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se Indie bude c\u00edtit donucena dodr\u017eovat tyto nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sankce, nap\u0159\u00edklad pokud bude Trump zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00edmi poradci uveden v omyl, aby pohrozil ochromuj\u00edc\u00edmi sekund\u00e1rn\u00edmi sankcemi, mohla by se pokusit uzav\u0159\u00edt dohodu.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdm\u011bnou za zpro\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by Indie mohla vysv\u011btlit, by byla nutn\u00e1 k tomu, aby zabr\u00e1nila transformaci Ruska na surovinovou rezervu pro p\u0159epl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed vzestupu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 supervelmoci na \u00fakor velk\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f USA, by se mohla pokusit p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Rusko, aby p\u0159ijalo Trump\u016fv m\u00edrov\u00fd pl\u00e1n. I kdy\u017e nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, co p\u0159esn\u011b m\u00e1 na mysli,\u00a0sign\u00e1ly, kter\u00e9 dosud vyslal,\u00a0<\/a>nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee bude od Ruska po\u017eadovat tvrd\u00e9 kompromisy, kter\u00e9 by Putin mohl odm\u00edtnout a Trump by pak mohl v reakci eskalovat.<\/p>\n

To by mohlo v\u00e9st k je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm protirusk\u00fdm sankc\u00edm, v\u010detn\u011b prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed hroz\u00edc\u00edch sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch sankc\u00ed proti t\u0159et\u00edm zem\u00edm, jako je Indie, a k v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ozbrojen\u00e9 pomoci Ukrajin\u011b za udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu. Pokud Rusko nep\u0159ijme nab\u00edzen\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nebo m\u00edrov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, pak nemus\u00ed m\u00edt jinou mo\u017enost, ne\u017e se st\u00e1t mlad\u0161\u00edm partnerem \u010c\u00edny ze zoufalstv\u00ed kv\u016fli financov\u00e1n\u00ed a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b i vojensko-technick\u00e9mu vybaven\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bnou za prodej sv\u00fdch zdroj\u016f v suter\u00e9nu- v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 ceny, jako je to\u00a0doposud odm\u00edt\u00e1no\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Trump se chce rychle \u201eoto\u010dit (zp\u011bt) do Asie\u201c, aby svalnat\u011bji zadr\u017eel \u010c\u00ednu, co\u017e ho vy\u017eaduje urychlen\u011b vy\u0159e\u0161it ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt, tak\u017ee jeho p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed by to mohlo odd\u00e1lit na neur\u010dito, zat\u00edmco Rusko p\u0159et\u00ed\u017e\u00ed vzestup \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 supervelmoci, kter\u00e9mu se chce vyhnout. . On a jeho poradci to tak mo\u017en\u00e1 nevid\u00ed, ale Indie by je mohla pomoci p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit o t\u00e9to p\u0159edpov\u011bdi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, na kterou by n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed z jeho t\u00fdmu mohli b\u00fdt\u00a0kv\u016fli sv\u00e9 indofilii vn\u00edmav\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e Indie nedok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Trumpa, aby po\u017eadoval od Putina tvrd\u00e9 kompromisy, a pak nedok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Putina, aby je p\u0159ijal, st\u00e1le by mohla vzdorovat p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch sankc\u00ed USA, \u017ee bude pokra\u010dovat v dovozu zlevn\u011bn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 ropy, i kdy\u017e mo\u017en\u00e1 ne ve stejnou dobu. m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko jako d\u0159\u00edve. Tato mo\u017enost vych\u00e1z\u00ed z velk\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9ho v\u00fdznamu jejich energetick\u00fdch vazeb, proto\u017ee se t\u00fdkaj\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho syst\u00e9mov\u00e9ho p\u0159echodu z pohledu Indie a imperativu zabr\u00e1nit Rusku st\u00e1t se mlad\u0161\u00edm partnerem \u010c\u00edny.<\/p>\n

S ohledem na v\u0161echny tyto poznatky je pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00e9 sankce USA po\u0161kod\u00ed rusko-indick\u00e9 vztahy, n\u00edzk\u00e1 a nebl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se tomu, o \u010dem n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed v m\u00e9di\u00edch spekulovali, ale st\u00e1le existuje riziko, \u017ee by mohly b\u00fdt trochu po\u0161kozeny, pokud by byly nen\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd v pr\u016fkopnick\u00fdch \u0159e\u0161en\u00edch. Dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznamnou prom\u011bnnou je, zda Indie dok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Trumpa, aby j\u00ed ud\u011blil v\u00fdjimku ze sankc\u00ed kv\u016fli tomu, jak tyto rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy br\u00e1n\u00ed Rusku st\u00e1t se juniorsk\u00fdm partnerem \u010c\u00edny nebo v\u00fdm\u011bnou za zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

Trumpova preference sankc\u00ed a jeho\u00a0posledn\u00ed hrozba\u00a0<\/a>zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch sankc\u00ed v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by mohly vykolejit pe\u010dliv\u00e9\u00a0mnohostrann\u00e9 spojenectv\u00ed Indie\u00a0<\/a>mezi USA a Ruskem t\u00edm, \u017ee by ji donutilo vybrat si mezi nimi, co\u017e za \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed nechce ud\u011blat. To kontextualizuje ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed skupiny jej\u00edch rusk\u00fdch pojistitel\u016f v Indii alespo\u0148 prozat\u00edm jako pragmatick\u00fd kompromis, co\u017e dokazuje, jak moc se Indie nechce nutit do v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho dilematu, i kdy\u017e by tomu tak nakonec mohlo b\u00fdt.<\/p>\n

Nakonec v\u0161e z\u00e1vis\u00ed na tom, jak dalece je Trump ochoten tla\u010dit Indii na jej\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd dovoz zlevn\u011bn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 ropy a do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry by mu Indie mohla vzdorovat. Trump by mohl b\u00fdt Indi\u00ed p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, aby p\u0159ehodnotil, \u017ee by m\u011bl j\u00edt naplno, zat\u00edmco Indie by pak mohla sm\u011ble prosazovat sv\u00e9 velk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy, pokud se tak nestane, i kdy\u017e s rizikem v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 krize s USA. Pozorovatel\u00e9 by proto m\u011bli bedliv\u011b sledovat tuto dynamiku kv\u016fli jejich potenci\u00e1ln\u011b obrovsk\u00e9mu dopadu na sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trumpova preference sankc\u00ed a jeho nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hrozba zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed t\u011bch sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch by mohly vykolejit pe\u010dliv\u00e9 mnohostrann\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":25916,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,79,22,125,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70924"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70924"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70924\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":70925,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70924\/revisions\/70925"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70924"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70924"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70924"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}