{"id":70655,"date":"2025-01-22T00:38:14","date_gmt":"2025-01-21T23:38:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=70655"},"modified":"2025-01-21T14:54:02","modified_gmt":"2025-01-21T13:54:02","slug":"klimaticke-modely-jsou-spatne-golfsky-proud-vykazuje-prekvapivou-stabilitu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/22\/klimaticke-modely-jsou-spatne-golfsky-proud-vykazuje-prekvapivou-stabilitu\/","title":{"rendered":"Klimatick\u00e9 modely jsou \u0161patn\u00e9: Golfsk\u00fd proud vykazuje p\u0159ekvapivou stabilitu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Konec sv\u011bta mus\u00ed b\u00fdt znovu odlo\u017een. Nov\u00e1 studie v renomovan\u00e9m \u010dasopise Nature Communications p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e1 zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed o stabilit\u011b atlantick\u00fdch oce\u00e1nsk\u00fdch proud\u016f \u2013 a zpochyb\u0148uje tak roky p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed klimatick\u00fdch fanatik\u016f.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1vy poch\u00e1zej\u00ed z klidn\u00e9ho Woods Hole na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed USA, kde v\u011bdci z oce\u00e1nografick\u00e9 instituce (WHOI) analyzovali v\u00fdvoj syst\u00e9mu AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current System) za posledn\u00edch 60 let. Jejich zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed \u2013 zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9 ve studii \u201e\u00a0<\/span>P\u0159evr\u00e1cen\u00ed Atlantiku odvozen\u00e9 z tok\u016f tepla vzduch-mo\u0159e nenazna\u010duje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd pokles od 60. let<\/span><\/a> \u201c \u2013 je tak jednoduch\u00e9 jako v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00e9: Golfsk\u00fd proud, \u010dasto ozna\u010dovan\u00fd jako \u201eAchillova pata klimatick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu\u201c, nevykazuje zn\u00e1mky oslaben\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNa\u0161e \u00fadaje ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159evratn\u00fd proud Atlantiku dosud neustoupil,\u201c vysv\u011btluje autor studie Nicholas P. Foukal, odborn\u00fd asistent na University of Georgia. Tvrzen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je v p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m rozporu s p\u0159edchoz\u00edmi modelov\u00fdmi v\u00fdpo\u010dty, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e p\u0159edpov\u00eddaly v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 oslaben\u00ed oce\u00e1nsk\u00fdch proud\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdznam t\u011bchto zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed lze jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed p\u0159ece\u0148ovat. Syst\u00e9m AMOC, kter\u00fd zahrnuje Golfsk\u00fd proud, funguje jako glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dopravn\u00ed p\u00e1s pro teplo, vlhkost a \u017eiviny ve sv\u011btov\u00fdch oce\u00e1nech. Je z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zodpov\u011bdn\u00fd za m\u00edrn\u00e9 klima v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b a je pova\u017eov\u00e1n za jednoho z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch regul\u00e1tor\u016f glob\u00e1ln\u00edho klimatick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zaj\u00edmav\u00e9: V\u00fdzkumn\u00edci vyvinuli novou metodu pro anal\u00fdzu oce\u00e1nsk\u00fdch proud\u016f. M\u00edsto toho, aby se spol\u00e9hali na teplotn\u00ed anom\u00e1lie v severn\u00edm Atlantiku jako d\u0159\u00edve, zkoumali v\u00fdm\u011bnu tepla mezi oce\u00e1nem a atmosf\u00e9rou. Tento nov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup se uk\u00e1zal jako v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pro hodnocen\u00ed stability AMOC. Studie, kter\u00e1 je zalo\u017eena na datech z 24 r\u016fzn\u00fdch model\u016f zemsk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, ukazuje zna\u010dn\u00e9 kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed intenzity proud\u011bn\u00ed. O systematick\u00e9m poklesu v obdob\u00ed let 1963 a\u017e 2017 v\u0161ak nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt \u0159e\u010d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed ot\u00e1zky o spolehlivosti p\u0159edchoz\u00edch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f. Studie vy\u017eaduje diferencovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pohled na slo\u017eit\u00e9 vztahy v na\u0161em klimatick\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledky v\u00fdzkumu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vyvolaj\u00ed intenzivn\u00ed debatu ve v\u011bdeck\u00e9 komunit\u011b. Znovu zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, jak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je neust\u00e1le revidovat a p\u0159izp\u016fsobovat v\u011bdeck\u00e9 modely \u2013 i kdy\u017e a zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e v\u00fdsledky neodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a narativ\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Konec sv\u011bta mus\u00ed b\u00fdt znovu odlo\u017een. Nov\u00e1 studie v renomovan\u00e9m \u010dasopise Nature Communications p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":70656,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[8110,873,1503],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70655"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70655"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70655\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/70656"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70655"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}