{"id":70446,"date":"2025-01-19T00:32:19","date_gmt":"2025-01-18T23:32:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=70446"},"modified":"2025-01-18T15:09:56","modified_gmt":"2025-01-18T14:09:56","slug":"paul-craig-roberts-posetilost-a-nezakonnost-sankci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/19\/paul-craig-roberts-posetilost-a-nezakonnost-sankci\/","title":{"rendered":"Paul Craig Roberts: Po\u0161etilost a nez\u00e1konnost sankc\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Opakovan\u011b dost\u00e1v\u00e1m ot\u00e1zku, zda je p\u0159ijet\u00ed nov\u00e9ho bal\u00ed\u010dku sankc\u00ed proti rusk\u00e9mu exportu ropy Bidenov\u00fdm re\u017eimem darem pro p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 Trumpovo prezidentstv\u00ed nebo otr\u00e1ven\u00fdm kalichem. Moje odpov\u011b\u010f: ani ne. Pokud budou tyto sankce zachov\u00e1ny nov\u00fdm Trumpov\u00fdm re\u017eimem, jsou z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti otr\u00e1ven\u00fdm kalichem \u2013 pro americk\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele a pro evropsk\u00e9 spojence \u010di loutky USA. Pokud bude sank\u010dn\u00ed bal\u00ed\u010dek \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd, sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nab\u00eddky ropy by vyhnalo ceny nahoru. A proto\u017ee popt\u00e1vka po rop\u011b m\u00e1 malou cenovou elasticitu, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny by zv\u00fd\u0161ily p\u0159\u00edjmy Ruska a po\u0161kodily v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad v N\u011bmecku se ji\u017e pr\u016fmysl p\u0159esouv\u00e1 do zem\u00ed s levn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi dod\u00e1vkami energie, co\u017e stoj\u00ed pracovn\u00ed m\u00edsta. V USA znamenaj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny energi\u00ed ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed disponibiln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjem a ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje, co\u017e sni\u017euje r\u016fst a zisky. Pro Rusko v\u0161ak vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny ropy znamenaj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy. Kdybych byl u moci v Rusku, u\u017e bych neprod\u00e1val energii zem\u00edm, kter\u00e9 vedou v\u00e1lku proti Rusku. Rusko m\u016f\u017ee snadno financovat sv\u016fj vnit\u0159n\u00ed rozvoj bez ciz\u00edch m\u011bn \u2013 jak jsme s Michaelem Hudsonem mnohokr\u00e1t vysv\u011btlili. Je zar\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed, \u017ee Putin toleruje neschopnost nebo n\u011bco hor\u0161\u00edho sv\u00e9ho \u0161\u00e9fa centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, jeho\u017e 21% \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed pro Rusko v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbu ne\u017e NATO, americk\u00e9 sankce nebo zbytky ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 alternativy a pochybn\u00e1 taktika Washingtonu<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Rusko m\u00e1 schopnost dod\u00e1vat ropu komukoli, komu chce, ani\u017e by se spol\u00e9halo na poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ropn\u00fdch tanker\u016f. Ropn\u00e9 tankery by mohly b\u00fdt doprov\u00e1zeny v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdmi lod\u011bmi nebo ponorkami, nebo, je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdhodn\u011bji, podporov\u00e1ny zam\u011b\u0159ovac\u00edmi zpravodajsk\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami, kter\u00e9 poskytuj\u00ed hypersonick\u00e9 st\u0159ely k odstran\u011bn\u00ed jak\u00e9koli hrozby.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010clov\u011bk se mus\u00ed pt\u00e1t: Pro\u010d Biden\u016fv re\u017eim trest\u00e1 sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed ob\u010dany a spojence USA? Gilbert Doctorow to p\u0159ipisuje nepravdiv\u00fdm nebo zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00edm informac\u00edm, kter\u00e9 CIA p\u0159edala vl\u00e1d\u011b a Kongresu. Souhlas\u00edm s Doctorowem. Z vlastn\u00ed zku\u0161enosti v\u00edm, \u017ee rozhodovac\u00ed procesy CIA jsou \u010dasto sm\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 a jsou v\u00fdsledkem neschopnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sankce proti Rusku \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b opat\u0159en\u00ed proti soukrom\u00fdm jacht\u00e1m nebo dokonce proti prezidentu Putinovi osobn\u011b \u2013 se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt d\u011btinsk\u00e9 a nevhodn\u00e9 pro velmoc. Ukrajina nem\u00e1 strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam pro nikoho krom\u011b Ruska. Souhlas Jelcinovy \u200b\u200bvl\u00e1dy s odtr\u017een\u00edm Ukrajiny byl bu\u010f naivn\u00ed, nebo koupen\u00fd. Ukrajina ale nen\u00ed pro USA probl\u00e9m; t\u00fdk\u00e1 se to Ruska a Washington by se do toho nem\u011bl dr\u017eet. M\u00edsto toho se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Washington je odhodl\u00e1n v\u00e9st n\u00e1s do velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sankce jako mo\u017en\u00e9 spou\u0161t\u011b\u010de eskalace<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Doctorow tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee nov\u00e9 sankce, pokud by je Kreml vn\u00edmal jako hrozbu, by mohly v\u00e9st k tomu, \u017ee Rusko eskaluje v\u00e1lku a povede k v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e sankce vstoup\u00ed v platnost. Ve skute\u010dnosti by sankce Bidenova re\u017eimu mohly Putina donutit opustit svou zdr\u017eovac\u00ed taktiku a ukon\u010dit v\u00e1lku rychleji.<\/span><\/p>\n

Poj\u010fme se ale pod\u00edvat na sankce: M\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pochopiteln\u00e9, \u017ee Washington zakazuje n\u011bjak\u00e9 zemi obchodovat s USA. Zda jsou tato poru\u0161en\u00ed smlouvy leg\u00e1ln\u00ed, je jin\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka \u2013 \u010dasto se to ospravedl\u0148uje \u201en\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost\u00ed\u201c, jednou z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch l\u017e\u00ed Z\u00e1padu. Ale jak m\u016f\u017ee Washington diktovat jin\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm, jako je Francie, komu mohou prod\u00e1vat? Pro\u010d se v\u016fbec n\u011bkdo \u0159\u00edd\u00ed t\u011bmito pokyny? Pasivn\u00ed p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed washingtonsk\u00e9ho dikt\u00e1tu je mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9. Co by se stalo, kdyby i dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b zavedly obchodn\u00ed omezen\u00ed na USA?<\/span><\/p>\n

Slabiny z\u00e1vislosti na USA<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 dr\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9 rezervy centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky v americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopisech, riskuje jejich ztr\u00e1tu konfiskac\u00ed. P\u0159esn\u011b to se stalo s rusk\u00fdmi rezervami pod veden\u00edm \u0161\u00e9fa centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky. Jin\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad: francouzsk\u00e1 banka Paribas musela po financov\u00e1n\u00ed smlouvy s Ruskem zaplatit USA 1,1 miliardy dolar\u016f, aby mohla pokra\u010dovat ve sv\u00e9 \u010dinnosti ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 zem\u011b nemus\u00ed dr\u017eet sv\u00e9 rezervy v americk\u00fdch dolarech nebo podnikat v USA. Suver\u00e9nn\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka by prodala st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy USA a m\u00edsto toho by nakupovala zlato ulo\u017een\u00e9 na dom\u00e1c\u00edm trhu. Dnes je ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo v\u011b\u0159\u00ed americk\u00fdm aktiv\u016fm, hlup\u00e1k.<\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00edl Washingtonu: zni\u010den\u00ed BRICS<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Washington je odhodl\u00e1n oslabit zem\u011b BRICS sankcemi. Aby se to v\u0161ak poda\u0159ilo, musely by posti\u017een\u00e9 zem\u011b z\u016fstat pasivn\u00ed \u2013 co\u017e dosud \u010dasto \u010dinily. Sv\u011bt si zvykl poslouchat Washington bez odporu. Ale nemus\u00ed to tak z\u016fstat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bylo by snadn\u00e9 Washington izolovat: zem\u011b by prost\u011b musely prohl\u00e1sit, \u017ee odm\u00edtnou kontrolu Washingtonu a p\u0159estanou obchodovat se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. To by vedlo USA do izolace \u2013 co\u017e je my\u0161lenka, kter\u00e1 zjevn\u011b americk\u00e9 \u201eodborn\u00edky na zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku\u201c nenapad\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u00edla pen\u011bz<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Pro\u010d se vl\u00e1dy pod\u0159izuj\u00ed kontrole Washingtonu? Moje podez\u0159en\u00ed: korupce. Vysok\u00fd p\u0159edstavitel Pentagonu mi jednou \u0159ekl: \u201eD\u00e1v\u00e1me zahrani\u010dn\u00edm vl\u00e1dn\u00edm \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016fm ta\u0161ky pln\u00e9 pen\u011bz. Vlastn\u00edme je.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 by Rusko m\u011blo vyu\u017e\u00edt sv\u00fdch vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z ropy, aby si zahr\u00e1lo v t\u00e9to h\u0159e a konkurovalo Washingtonu. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b jsou jedin\u00fdmi \u201epl\u00e1tci\u201c v tomto syst\u00e9mu USA a Izrael.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br: P\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fd v\u00fdsledek<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Dokud budou vl\u00e1dy nad\u00e1le kontrolov\u00e1ny Washingtonem, v\u00fdsledek je jasn\u00fd: sankce budou pokra\u010dovat a sv\u011bt z\u016fstane uv\u011bzn\u011bn v syst\u00e9mu ur\u010den\u00e9m nadvl\u00e1dou USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Opakovan\u011b dost\u00e1v\u00e1m ot\u00e1zku, zda je p\u0159ijet\u00ed nov\u00e9ho bal\u00ed\u010dku sankc\u00ed proti rusk\u00e9mu exportu ropy Bidenov\u00fdm re\u017eimem…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":810,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1503,22,125,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70446"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70446"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70446\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}