{"id":70320,"date":"2025-01-17T00:43:02","date_gmt":"2025-01-16T23:43:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=70320"},"modified":"2025-01-16T15:07:35","modified_gmt":"2025-01-16T14:07:35","slug":"andrew-korybko-analyza-ukrajinskeho-pokusu-o-dronovy-utok-na-ruskou-infrastrukturu-turkstreamu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/17\/andrew-korybko-analyza-ukrajinskeho-pokusu-o-dronovy-utok-na-ruskou-infrastrukturu-turkstreamu\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Anal\u00fdza ukrajinsk\u00e9ho pokusu o dronov\u00fd \u00fatok na ruskou infrastrukturu TurkStreamu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Zde je p\u011bt post\u0159eh\u016f o nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed provokaci Kyjeva v \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko\u00a0obvinilo\u00a0<\/a>Ukrajinu z pokusu o \u00fatok dronem na jednu z kompresn\u00edch stanic plynu TurkStream, co\u017e mluv\u010d\u00ed Kremlu Dmitrij Peskov popsal jako \u201e\u00a0energetick\u00fd terorismus\u00a0<\/a>\u201c, zat\u00edmco ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergej Lavrov tvrdil, \u017ee USA tomu\u00a0daly zelenou\u00a0<\/a>, aby z\u00edskaly energetick\u00fd monopol nad EU. Stalo se tak necel\u00e9 dva t\u00fddny pot\u00e9, co Ukrajina\u00a0zastavila\u00a0<\/a>v\u00fdvoz rusk\u00e9ho plynu do Evropy p\u0159es sv\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed. Zde je p\u011bt post\u0159eh\u016f o nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed provokaci Kyjeva v \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku:<\/p>\n

———-<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Toto nen\u00ed prvn\u00ed pokus o ukrajinsk\u00fd \u00fatok proti TurkStreamu<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Ukrajina se jen\u00a0<\/a>koncem\u00a0<\/a>roku 2022\u00a0<\/a>pokusila zni\u010dit tento ropovod nejm\u00e9n\u011b t\u0159ikr\u00e1t\u00a0, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e dva z jej\u00edch ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch pokus\u016f o sabot\u00e1\u017e byly analyzov\u00e1ny\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>, ale toto je poprv\u00e9, co se pokusila pou\u017e\u00edt drony. To ukazuje, \u017ee TurkStream z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pro Kyjev prioritn\u00edm c\u00edlem, ale kupodivu to nevedlo k poklesu vztah\u016f s Ankarou, jak dokazuje jejich pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 spolupr\u00e1ce, kter\u00e1 zahrnuje i\u00a0tov\u00e1rnu na drony\u00a0<\/a>. Neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se proto, \u017ee by posledn\u00ed pokus o \u00fatok po\u0161kodil ani jejich vztahy.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Ani Turkiye, ani NATO jako celek se o tuto provokaci nezaj\u00edmaj\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Postoj Turkiye je t\u011b\u017eko pochopiteln\u00fd, ale bu\u010f nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed rusk\u00fdm tvrzen\u00edm o pokusu Ukrajiny za\u00fato\u010dit na TurkStream, nebo nevysv\u011btliteln\u011b v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee m\u00e1 v\u00edce z\u00edskat z pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed ve vyzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny navzdory t\u011bmto provokac\u00edm, ne\u017e aby ji v reakci od\u0159\u00edzlo. Pokud jde o NATO, zat\u00edmco \u010dlensk\u00fd st\u00e1t Ma\u010farsko to\u00a0odsoudilo\u00a0<\/a>jako poru\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00e9 suverenity kv\u016fli \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti zem\u011b na exportu tohoto ropovodu, bloku jako celku je to podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed jedno, proto\u017ee je a\u017e do morku kost\u00ed protirusk\u00e9.<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Ukrajina cht\u011bla dokon\u010dit Rusko a odd\u011blen\u00ed plynovodu EU<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Motivem Ukrajiny bylo zni\u010dit posledn\u00ed funguj\u00edc\u00ed plynovod mezi Ruskem a EU, o kter\u00e9m se domn\u00edvala, \u017ee by jim pak zt\u00ed\u017eilo smyslupln\u00e9 sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed po skon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 p\u0159ipravilo Kreml o p\u0159\u00edjmy na financov\u00e1n\u00ed jeho prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed\u00a0speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>operace\u00a0<\/a>. M\u011blo to v podstat\u011b doplnit\u00a0teroristick\u00fd \u00fatok Nord Stream ze z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022\u00a0<\/a>ve smyslu slou\u017eit jako geopolitick\u00e1 mocensk\u00e1 hra pro ovlivn\u011bn\u00ed pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 budoucnosti Evropy.<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Byla to operace Rogue Deep State, nebo ji schv\u00e1lil Biden?<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Prvn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 by byl v souladu s hypot\u00e9zou uvedenou\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>loni na ja\u0159e o ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch proti rusk\u00fdm syst\u00e9m\u016fm v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 byly pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za zoufal\u00fd pokus o eskalaci, kter\u00fd se pozd\u011bji dostal pod kontrolu, zat\u00edmco druh\u00fd by byl v souladu s precedentem Nord Stream II. Lavrov u\u017e obvinil USA, tak\u017ee je ot\u00e1zkou, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry si to byla zvolen\u00e1 vl\u00e1da v\u011bdoma. Odpov\u011b\u010f pom\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bt, zda Trump\u016fv n\u00e1vrat do \u00fa\u0159adu p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden n\u011bco zm\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

            \n
          1. Jak by mohl Trump reagovat na tento v\u00fdvoj po n\u00e1vratu do \u00fa\u0159adu?<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            Na z\u00e1klad\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho by bylo pro Trumpa obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed udr\u017eet na uzd\u011b dareb\u00e1ck\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed hlubok\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, pokud by byl proti tomu, co ud\u011blali, ale precedens, kdy Biden (nebo sp\u00ed\u0161e ti, kte\u0159\u00ed ho ovl\u00e1daj\u00ed), byl schopen zastavit ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky proti rusk\u00fdm syst\u00e9m\u016fm v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed nazna\u010duje, \u017ee to nen\u00ed nemo\u017en\u00e9. Na druhou stranu nelze vylou\u010dit, \u017ee by mohl podporovat sabot\u00e1\u017e TurkStreamu za \u00fa\u010delem z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed energetick\u00e9ho monopolu nad EU a\/nebo vlivu na Turkiye, v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by mohlo n\u00e1sledovat v\u00edce takov\u00fdch pokus\u016f.<\/p>\n

            ———-<\/p>\n

            Nejlep\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je, \u017ee Trump brzy d\u00e1 Ukrajin\u011b jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee je nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dit na TurkStream, a pot\u00e9 pov\u011b\u0159\u00ed sv\u00e9 stoupence hlubok\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, aby vyko\u0159enili souvisej\u00edc\u00ed podvratn\u00e9 elementy. Jak bylo vysv\u011btleno\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>, TurkStream m\u016f\u017ee hr\u00e1t roli v kreativn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 diplomacii jako sou\u010d\u00e1st velk\u00e9 rusko-americk\u00e9 dohody o Ukrajin\u011b, jej\u00ed\u017e v\u00fdsledek je v souladu s jeho c\u00edlem rychle ukon\u010dit konflikt. Odch\u00fdlen\u00ed se od tohoto kurzu by mohlo\u00a0snadno v\u00e9st k eskalaci\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00e1 nebezpe\u010dn\u011b riskuje, \u017ee se vymkne kontrole.<\/p>\n

            Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

            \"\"<\/p>\n

             <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            Zde je p\u011bt post\u0159eh\u016f o nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed provokaci Kyjeva v \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku. Rusko\u00a0obvinilo\u00a0Ukrajinu z pokusu o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":70321,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,215,22,55,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70320"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70320"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":70322,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70320\/revisions\/70322"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/70321"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}