{"id":70199,"date":"2025-01-15T00:33:41","date_gmt":"2025-01-14T23:33:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=70199"},"modified":"2025-01-14T16:46:46","modified_gmt":"2025-01-14T15:46:46","slug":"nejistota-pred-prichodem-trumpa-vyprodeje-dluhopisu-a-zvyseny-potencial-evropskych-akcii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/15\/nejistota-pred-prichodem-trumpa-vyprodeje-dluhopisu-a-zvyseny-potencial-evropskych-akcii\/","title":{"rendered":"Nejistota p\u0159ed p\u0159\u00edchodem Trumpa: V\u00fdprodeje dluhopis\u016f a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fd potenci\u00e1l evropsk\u00fdch akci\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trhy se p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na n\u00e1stup Donalda Trumpa do prezidentsk\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu v USA, co\u017e zv\u00fd\u0161ilo nejistotu a zp\u016fsobilo v\u00fdprodeje st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, jejich\u017e v\u00fdnosy se v n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech dostaly na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b za cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed riziko p\u0159edstavuje zaveden\u00ed cel na dovoz do USA, co\u017e rozd\u011bluje n\u00e1zory ekonom\u016f. Evropsk\u00e9 akcie v\u0161ak maj\u00ed v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce kone\u010dn\u011b \u0161anci prorazit.<\/em> [1]<\/em><\/p>\n

Celosv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00fdprodeje st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Nejistota ohledn\u011b Trumpov\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f zp\u016fsobuje volatilitu tak\u00e9 na trz\u00edch s dluhopisy, proto\u017ee se sv\u011bt p\u0159ipravuje na ekonomick\u00e9 dopady politiky nov\u011b zvolen\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho prezidenta. Kv\u016fli v\u00fdprodej\u016fm dluhopis\u016f, prudk\u00e9mu r\u016fstu jejich v\u00fdnos\u016f a posilov\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00e9ho dolaru se spustila \u0159et\u011bzov\u00e1 reakce nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d ekonomikami. Americk\u00fd 10let\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopis p\u0159ekonal hranici 4,7 %, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnota od dubna. Dlouhodob\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy, v\u010detn\u011b 30let\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f, se p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eily k 5 %, co\u017e jsou bezprecedentn\u00ed hodnoty za posledn\u00ed desetilet\u00ed.*<\/p>\n

V Evrop\u011b ve st\u0159edu 8. ledna p\u0159ekro\u010dil v\u00fdnos n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho 10let\u00e9ho Bundu hranici 2,5 %, co\u017e bylo p\u011btim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed maximum. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dopad v\u00fdprodej\u016f v\u0161ak poc\u00edtilo Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed. V\u00fdnos 30let\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f zde vzrostl na 5,4 %, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnota od roku 1998.* Tento prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst zvy\u0161uje tlak na st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det a oslabuje libru. V\u00fdnosy 10let\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f se zv\u00fd\u0161ily o v\u00edce ne\u017e 30 bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 4,9 %, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od roku 2008, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e na t\u011bchto hodnot\u00e1ch z\u016fstaly i v p\u00e1tek.* Pohyb, kter\u00fd za\u010dal v \u00fater\u00fd a ve st\u0159edu nabral na s\u00edle, nem\u011bl jednozna\u010dn\u00fd spou\u0161t\u011b\u010d. K v\u00fdvoji v\u0161ak p\u0159isp\u011bly faktory, jako jsou vysok\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b britsk\u00e9ho zadlu\u017een\u00ed a obavy Bank of England z inflace.<\/p>\n

V Japonsku v\u00fdnos 10let\u00e9ho referen\u010dn\u00edho dluhopisu v p\u00e1tek 10. ledna p\u0159ekro\u010dil hranici 1,20 %, co\u017e je nejv\u00edce za v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dtrn\u00e1ct let.* Naopak v \u010c\u00edn\u011b se v\u00fdnosy dr\u017e\u00ed na rekordn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch, proto\u017ee investo\u0159i o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed tamn\u00ed sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v reakci na stagnaci ekonomiky.<\/p>\n

Obchodn\u00edci se op\u011bt zaj\u00edmaj\u00ed o Evropu<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e9 akcie zaznamenaly oproti t\u011bm americk\u00fdm v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce podpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd v\u00fdkon. P\u0159i ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch poklesech americk\u00fdch akci\u00ed se v\u0161ak investo\u0159i za\u010dali vracet na Star\u00fd kontinent. Navzdory tomu, \u017ee oslabil i evropsk\u00fd index STOXX 600, nebyl zasa\u017een v takov\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e jako S&P 500. Fondy investuj\u00edc\u00ed do evropsk\u00fdch akci\u00ed zaznamenaly prvn\u00ed \u010dist\u00fd p\u0159\u00edliv od \u0159\u00edjna 2024, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e n\u011bkter\u00e9 velk\u00e9 banky p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed zm\u011bnu sm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed trhu v tomto roce.* Banky Barclays, Deutsche Bank a Citi p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed dvoucifern\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy pro STOXX v tomto roce, co\u017e podporuje i p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee evropsk\u00e9 akcie jsou v sou\u010dasnosti podhodnocen\u00e9. [2]<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Trumpova cla p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed riziko<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed zaveden\u00ed vysok\u00fdch cel na dovoz do USA pod veden\u00edm Donalda Trumpa vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 nejistotu nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d n\u011bkolika odv\u011btv\u00edmi. Nejv\u00edce ohro\u017een\u00e1 je spot\u0159ebn\u00ed elektronika, kter\u00e1 je z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u00edch. Trump b\u011bhem sv\u00e9 kampan\u011b sl\u00edbil cla a\u017e ve v\u00fd\u0161i 60 % na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 v\u00fdrobky a v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 poplatky na dovoz z Kanady, Mexika a dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed, s c\u00edlem p\u0159esunout v\u00fdrobu zp\u011bt do USA. D\u016fsledky pro spot\u0159ebitele a inovace v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed sporn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Asociace Consumer Technology Association (CTA), zastupuj\u00edc\u00ed \u0159adu technologick\u00fdch firem, varuje, \u017ee tato cla by mohla brzdit inovace a zvy\u0161ovat ceny b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch produkt\u016f. Podle anal\u00fdzy CTA by cla zv\u00fd\u0161ila ceny notebook\u016f v pr\u016fm\u011bru o 357 USD, chytr\u00fdch telefon\u016f o 213 USD a televizor\u016f o 48 USD. CTA tak\u00e9 upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed poplatky by mohly spustit cyklus odvetn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed ze strany jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco velk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti se mohou p\u0159izp\u016fsobit zm\u011bnami v dodavatelsk\u00e9m \u0159et\u011bzci, men\u0161\u00ed podniky \u010del\u00ed mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m. Nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00fdrobce robot\u016f Yarbo, kter\u00fd produkuje sv\u00e9 v\u00fdrobky v \u010c\u00edn\u011b, podle NBC News uvedl, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zaveden\u00ed cel pl\u00e1nuje p\u0159esun v\u00fdroby, nen\u00ed v\u0161ak jist\u00e9, zda to posta\u010d\u00ed ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f.<\/p>\n

Fed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 optimistick\u00fd<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Ve st\u0159edu 8. ledna 2025 guvern\u00e9r americk\u00e9ho Fedu Christopher Waller ve sv\u00e9m projevu uvedl, \u017ee inflace v USA by m\u011bla letos pokra\u010dovat sm\u011brem k c\u00edlov\u00fdm 2 %, co\u017e d\u00e1v\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bance prostor pro dal\u0161\u00ed uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb. Tento optimismus p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1 i navzdory pomalej\u0161\u00edmu ne\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9mu poklesu inflace v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. V\u00fdhledy se v\u0161ak zm\u00edrnily. Podle projekc\u00ed Fedu se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee sazby se letos sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed pouze o 50 bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f. To je m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e odhady ze z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daly pokles o cel\u00fd procentn\u00ed bod. [3]<\/p>\n

David Matulay, hlavn\u00ed analytik<\/em><\/strong> InvestingFox<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

* \u00dadaje vztahuj\u00edc\u00ed se k minulosti nejsou z\u00e1rukou budouc\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f.<\/em><\/p>\n

[1], [2], [3] V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady a aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159esn\u00e1, nebo vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit. Tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nezaru\u010duj\u00ed budouc\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost. V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed svou povahou zahrnuj\u00ed riziko a nejistotu, proto\u017ee se vztahuj\u00ed k budouc\u00edm ud\u00e1lostem a okolnostem, kter\u00e9 nelze p\u0159edv\u00eddat, a skute\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj a v\u00fdsledky se mohou v\u00fdrazn\u011b li\u0161it od v\u00fdsledk\u016f vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00fdch nebo implikovan\u00fdch v jak\u00fdchkoli v\u00fdhledov\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Upozorn\u011bn\u00ed!<\/em> Tento marketingov\u00fd materi\u00e1l nen\u00ed a nesm\u00ed b\u00fdt ch\u00e1p\u00e1n jako investi\u010dn\u00ed poradenstv\u00ed. \u00dadaje vztahuj\u00edc\u00ed se k minulosti nejsou z\u00e1rukou budouc\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f. Investov\u00e1n\u00ed v ciz\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit v\u00fdnosy v d\u016fsledku v\u00fdkyv\u016f. V\u0161echny obchody s cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry mohou v\u00e9st jak ke zisk\u016fm, tak ke ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m. V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady a aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159esn\u00e1, nebo vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit. Tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nezaru\u010duj\u00ed budouc\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost. InvestingFox je obchodn\u00ed zna\u010dka spole\u010dnosti CAPITAL MARKETS, o.c.p., a.s., regulovan\u00e9 N\u00e1rodn\u00ed bankou Slovenska.<\/p>\n

M\u00edra v\u00fdnos\u016f 10let\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f USA za posledn\u00edch 5 let:* https:\/\/www.investing.com\/rates-bonds\/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield<\/a>
\nM\u00edra v\u00fdnos\u016f 30let\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f USA za posledn\u00edch 5 let:* https:\/\/www.investing.com\/rates-bonds\/u.s.-30-year-bond-yield<\/a><\/p>\n

M\u00edra v\u00fdnos\u016f 10let\u00fdch n\u011bmeck\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f za posledn\u00edch 5 let:* https:\/\/www.investing.com\/rates-bonds\/germany-10-year-bond-yield<\/a><\/p>\n

M\u00edra v\u00fdnos\u016f 30let\u00fdch britsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f za posledn\u00edch 5 let:* https:\/\/www.investing.com\/rates-bonds\/uk-30-year-bond-yield<\/a><\/p>\n

M\u00edra v\u00fdnos\u016f 10let\u00fdch britsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f za posledn\u00edch 5 let:* https:\/\/www.investing.com\/rates-bonds\/uk-10-year-bond-yield<\/a><\/p>\n

M\u00edra v\u00fdnos\u016f 10let\u00fdch japonsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f za posledn\u00edch 5 let:* https:\/\/www.investing.com\/rates-bonds\/japan-10-year-bond-yield<\/a><\/p>\n

Zdroje:<\/strong><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/rates-bonds\/global-markets-yields-2025-01-08\/<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trhy se p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na n\u00e1stup Donalda Trumpa do prezidentsk\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu v USA, co\u017e zv\u00fd\u0161ilo…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":69819,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,59,45],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70199"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70199"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70199\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":70201,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70199\/revisions\/70201"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/69819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}