{"id":70159,"date":"2025-01-14T05:36:55","date_gmt":"2025-01-14T04:36:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=70159"},"modified":"2025-01-14T05:36:55","modified_gmt":"2025-01-14T04:36:55","slug":"agenda-trumpovy-vlady-a-pravdepodobne-ekonomicke-a-financni-dusledky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/14\/agenda-trumpovy-vlady-a-pravdepodobne-ekonomicke-a-financni-dusledky\/","title":{"rendered":"Agenda Trumpovy vl\u00e1dy a pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 a finan\u010dn\u00ed d\u016fsledky"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u201eKdy\u017e se loupe\u017e stane zp\u016fsobem \u017eivota skupiny lid\u00ed \u017eij\u00edc\u00edch ve spole\u010dnosti, vytvo\u0159\u00ed si \u010dasem pr\u00e1vn\u00ed syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd ji povoluje, a mor\u00e1ln\u00ed kodex, kter\u00fd ji oslavuje.\u201c -Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Bastiat (1801-1850), francouzsk\u00fd ekonom.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eVl\u00e1da, kter\u00e1 byla vytvo\u0159ena pro lidi , se dostala do rukou \u0161\u00e9f\u016f a jejich zam\u011bstnanc\u016f \u2013 zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f. Nad formami demokracie se vytvo\u0159ilo neviditeln\u00e9 imp\u00e9rium.\u201c \u2013 \u201aNeviditeln\u00e9 imp\u00e9rium\u2018. -Woodrow Wilson (1856-1924), americk\u00fd profesor a 28. prezident Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f (1913-1921).<\/p>\n

\u201eKdy\u017e se ka\u017ed\u00e1 zem\u011b obr\u00e1tila k ochran\u011b sv\u00fdch soukrom\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f , sv\u011btov\u00fd ve\u0159ejn\u00fd z\u00e1jem \u0161el ke dnu a s n\u00edm i soukrom\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy v\u0161ech.\u201c (Wilson) -Charles Kindleberger (1910-2003), americk\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd historik.<\/p>\n

\u201ePokud mohu soudit, tento prezident [Donald Trump] m\u00e1 pouze jeden referen\u010dn\u00ed bod, a to vnit\u0159n\u00ed. To je velmi podobn\u00e9 \u0161\u00e9fovi Cosa Nostry.\u201c -James B. Comey (1960- ), b\u00fdval\u00fd \u0159editel FBI (2013-2017).<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

V konfliktn\u00edm kontextu americk\u00e9 politiky se zd\u00e1, \u017ee politick\u00e9 kyvadlo se pohybuje od jednoho extr\u00e9mn\u00edho chaosu k druh\u00e9mu, od intervencionistick\u00e9, v\u00e1le\u010dnick\u00e9 a rozhazova\u010dn\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy veden\u00e9 odch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm demokratick\u00fdm prezidentem Joem Bidenem a jeho \u201eneokonzervativn\u00edmi<\/a>\u201c poradci k izolacionistick\u00e9, imperialistick\u00e9 a protekcionistick\u00e9 vl\u00e1d\u011b pod veden\u00edm republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho zvolen\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa, s jeho ultranacionalistick\u00fdm heslem \u201eAmerika p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm\u201c.<\/p>\n

Politick\u00fd program Donalda Trumpa je skute\u010dn\u011b radik\u00e1ln\u00ed, izolacionistick\u00fd a protekcionistick\u00fd, dokonce\u00a0merkantilistick\u00fd<\/a>. Ten p\u0159itom vyzn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee chce prov\u00e1d\u011bt nanejv\u00fd\u0161 kaval\u00edrskou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku se sm\u011bs\u00ed provokac\u00ed, ur\u00e1\u017eek,\u00a0vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a>, n\u00e1tlakov\u00fdch hrozeb a hegemonistick\u00e9ho zastra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u016f\u010di jin\u00fdm zem\u00edm a jejich p\u0159edstavitel\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Proto hroz\u00ed, \u017ee nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce a roky budou politicky a ekonomicky bou\u0159liv\u00e9 a mo\u017en\u00e1 i chaotick\u00e9, a to nejen ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, ale i po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, proto\u017ee prezident Donald Trump a jeho administrativa p\u0159istoup\u00ed k razantn\u00edmu napl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010detn\u00fdch slib\u016f, kter\u00e9 dal b\u011bhem prezidentsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b v USA v roce 2024.<\/p>\n

Zvolen\u00fd prezident Donald Trump v podstat\u011b dokon\u010dil slo\u017een\u00ed sv\u00e9 administrativy s v\u011brn\u00fdmi stoupenci a\u00a0politick\u00fdmi spojenci<\/a>, z nich\u017e n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed jsou jeho klony a n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed jsou je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce\u00a0jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0a militaristi\u010dt\u00ed ne\u017e on s\u00e1m. Jeho politick\u00fd\u00a0program<\/a>\u00a0a \u010detn\u00e9 sliby jsou \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b inspirov\u00e1ny krajn\u011b pravicov\u00fdm\u00a0Projektem 2025<\/a>\u00a0nadace Heritage Foundation .<\/p>\n

Proto je nyn\u00ed pon\u011bkud jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, jak\u00fdm sm\u011brem hodl\u00e1 nov\u00e1 administrativa v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch a letech posunout vl\u00e1du Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Je tak\u00e9 snaz\u0161\u00ed analyzovat ekonomick\u00e9 a finan\u010dn\u00ed d\u016fsledky, kter\u00e9 to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159inese.<\/p>\n

Ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech se toti\u017e m\u016f\u017ee objevit nov\u00e1 \u00e9ra \u201eplutokratick\u00fdch tyran\u016f\u201c, kter\u00e1 by mohla b\u00fdt obdobou \u00e9ry \u201eloupe\u017eiv\u00fdch baron\u016f<\/a>\u201c z let 1861-1901.<\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti tato nov\u00e1 politick\u00e1 \u00e9ra skute\u010dn\u011b za\u010dala 21. ledna 2010, kdy Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed soud USA podle z\u00e1sady \u201epen\u00edze jsou projev<\/i>\u201c povolil volebn\u00edm skupin\u00e1m p\u0159ij\u00edmat masivn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed dary a utr\u00e1cet b\u011bhem voleb prakticky neomezen\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stky (pokud sv\u00e9 akce p\u0159\u00edmo nekoordinuj\u00ed s kandid\u00e1ty politick\u00fdch stran).<\/p>\n

1. Trumpova administrativa pl\u00e1nuje krom\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed kontroly hranic omezit americk\u00fd dovoz prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm vysok\u00fdch cel<\/h2>\n

Mezi prvn\u00edmi n\u00e1vrhy Trumpovy administrativy je z\u00e1m\u011br zv\u00fd\u0161it cla na v\u00fdrobky z r\u016fzn\u00fdch zem\u00ed, a to od 10% cla na dovoz z v\u011bt\u0161iny zem\u00ed a\u017e po 60% clo na dovoz z \u010c\u00edny, krom\u011b podpory dom\u00e1c\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby ropy a plynu. [Pozn\u00e1mka: Prezident Trump dokonce sn\u00ed o nahrazen\u00ed dan\u011b z p\u0159\u00edjmu v USA cly, a\u010dkoli \u010d\u00edsla pro tak radik\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bnu nesed\u00ed!].<\/p>\n

Pl\u00e1nuje tak\u00e9 pos\u00edlit ochranu hranic a deportovat velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed p\u0159ist\u011bhovalc\u016f bez doklad\u016f, krom\u011b toho v\u00fdrazn\u011b omezit \u201epl\u00fdtv\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c ve\u0159ejn\u00fdmi v\u00fddaji, deregulovat n\u011bkter\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed praktiky a p\u0159ijmout m\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1kony o antimonopoln\u00ed regulaci. Krom\u011b toho lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee prodlou\u017e\u00ed p\u0159edchoz\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dan\u00ed pro fyzick\u00e9 osoby a sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed sazby dan\u011b z p\u0159\u00edjmu pr\u00e1vnick\u00fdch osob z 21 % na 15 % pro podniky, co\u017e bude financov\u00e1no pl\u00e1novan\u00fdm drastick\u00fdm sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm feder\u00e1ln\u00ed byrokracie.<\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed nepochybn\u011b povzbud\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje, v\u00fdrobu a zam\u011bstnanost, p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm v n\u011bkter\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00edch a na ur\u010ditou dobu \u2013 v d\u016fsledku nov\u00fdch da\u0148ov\u00fdch \u0161krt\u016f, substituce dovozu a deregulace. Jin\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed, jako jsou v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 \u0161krty ve vl\u00e1dn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u00edch a hroz\u00edc\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky, v\u0161ak budou m\u00edt opa\u010dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek.<\/p>\n

Fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politika Trumpovy administrativy bude ve skute\u010dnosti balancov\u00e1n\u00edm mezi sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm dan\u00ed a omezov\u00e1n\u00edm ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f v r\u00e1mci glob\u00e1ln\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 6,3 bilionu dolar\u016f v roce 2024.<\/p>\n

V kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu se v\u0161ak ji\u017e tak vysok\u00fd\u00a0deficit<\/a>\u00a0feder\u00e1ln\u00edho\u00a0rozpo\u010dtu<\/a>\u00a0USA (2,1 bilionu USD, tj. 7,4 % HDP) a obrovsk\u00fd\u00a0feder\u00e1ln\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fd dluh\u00a0<\/a>(36,2 bilionu USD, tj. 127 % HDP) jist\u011b je\u0161t\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Bude tomu tak proto, \u017ee jen\u00a0dluhov\u00e1 slu\u017eba<\/a>\u00a0(spl\u00e1tky p\u016fj\u010dek v dob\u011b splatnosti a pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 \u00faroky z nesplacen\u00e9ho ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho dluhu) \u010din\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 1,0 bilionu USD ro\u010dn\u011b. Trval\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dan\u00ed z p\u0159\u00edjmu pr\u00e1vnick\u00fdch a fyzick\u00fdch osob v minulosti pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b tak\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed schodek a ve\u0159ejn\u00fd dluh.<\/p>\n

To by znamenalo v\u00edce dluhopis\u016f vydan\u00fdch Ministerstvem financ\u00ed USA a tlak na r\u016fst nomin\u00e1ln\u00edch a re\u00e1ln\u00fdch (o inflaci o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch) dlouhodob\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a v\u00fdp\u016fj\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch letech. To by tak\u00e9 mohlo znamenat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed tlak na Fed, aby nakupoval st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy s rizikem vzniku v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed inflace.<\/p>\n

T\u00edm by to v\u0161ak neskon\u010dilo, proto\u017ee o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed dovozn\u00edch dan\u00ed bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b tak\u00e9 tla\u010dit na r\u016fst dovozn\u00edch cen, zat\u00edmco rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 deportace neleg\u00e1ln\u00edch pracovn\u00edk\u016f v USA by vedly k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm mzd\u00e1m v n\u011bkter\u00fdch hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00edch. To by mohlo Fed p\u0159im\u011bt k tomu, aby nadobro zpomalil sv\u016fj prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed program sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb z obavy p\u0159ed op\u011btovn\u00fdm o\u017eiven\u00edm inflace.<\/p>\n

2. V kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu lze ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech o\u010dek\u00e1vat ur\u010dit\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkce a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed inflace<\/h2>\n

Celkov\u00fd po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed dopad protekcionistick\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 budou p\u0159ijata b\u011bhem prvn\u00edch 100 dn\u016f nov\u00e9 administrativy, bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b celkov\u011b proinfla\u010dn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ceny mnoha dov\u00e1\u017een\u00fdch v\u00fdrobk\u016f a materi\u00e1l\u016f se jist\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed. Podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch odhad\u016f by ro\u010dn\u00ed\u00a0n\u00e1klady<\/a>\u00a0na nov\u00e1 Trumpova cla pro pr\u016fm\u011brnou americkou dom\u00e1cnost mohly \u010dinit 1 700 a\u017e 2 350 USD.<\/p>\n

Rovn\u011b\u017e mzdy v n\u011bkter\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00edch by se zv\u00fd\u0161ily, kdy\u017e bude mnoho zahrani\u010dn\u00edch pracovn\u00edk\u016f vystaveno deportaci. Sp\u011bch s nahrazen\u00edm dovozu by si rovn\u011b\u017e vy\u017e\u00e1dal nov\u00e9 investice, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se zv\u00fd\u0161il tlak popt\u00e1vky na ceny a n\u00e1klady.<\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd dolar by na ur\u010ditou dobu pos\u00edlil v\u016f\u010di ostatn\u00edm m\u011bn\u00e1m, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se pon\u011bkud zm\u00edrnil r\u016fst dovozn\u00edch cen. Tak\u00e9 snahy o zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkce ropy a plynu by sn\u00ed\u017eily ceny energi\u00ed. Postupem \u010dasu, jak se bude zvy\u0161ovat dom\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00fdroba zbo\u017e\u00ed nahrazuj\u00edc\u00edho dovoz, bude m\u00edt tato zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 dom\u00e1c\u00ed nab\u00eddka tak\u00e9 tendenci zpomalovat dom\u00e1c\u00ed inflaci v USA.<\/p>\n

3. Ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m horizontu by vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed dovozn\u00ed dan\u011b jist\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eily spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje, zat\u00edmco obchodn\u00ed odvetn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed ze strany jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed by po\u0161kodila americk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz<\/h2>\n

Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed dovozn\u00ed dan\u011b by toti\u017e sn\u00ed\u017eily re\u00e1ln\u00fd disponibiln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjem americk\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, co\u017e by po\u0161kodilo spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje.<\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b tak\u00a0obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky<\/a>\u00a0po\u0161kod\u00ed sv\u011btovou ekonomiku a to zase po\u0161kod\u00ed americk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz. -V\u0161echny zem\u011b v obchodn\u00edch v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch prohr\u00e1vaj\u00ed. -Celosv\u011btov\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 zpomalen\u00ed nen\u00ed v z\u00e1jmu americk\u00e9 ani sv\u011btov\u00e9 ekonomiky.<\/p>\n

Zku\u0161enost z\u00a0Velk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 krize<\/a>\u00a0(1929-1939) je v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm mementem. Americk\u00fd\u00a0Smoot-Hawleyho z\u00e1kon<\/a>\u00a0z roku 1930 , kter\u00fd zv\u00fd\u0161il americk\u00e9 dovozn\u00ed dan\u011b o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 %, vyvolal mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lku. Mnoho zem\u00ed n\u00e1sledovalo Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a p\u0159ijalo obchodn\u00ed politiku \u201eo\u017eebra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed soused\u016f\u201c. Sv\u011btov\u00fd obchod se zmen\u0161il a s n\u00edm i cel\u00e1 sv\u011btov\u00e1 ekonomika.<\/p>\n

Mohla by merkantilistick\u00e1 obchodn\u00ed politika usp\u011bt v dne\u0161n\u00ed dob\u011b ? Jin\u00fdmi slovy, mohl by b\u00fdt \u010dist\u00fd v\u00fdsledek takov\u00e9 jednostrann\u00e9 stimula\u010dn\u00ed politiky v USA zpo\u010d\u00e1tku expanzivn\u00ed a pozd\u011bji velmi rozporupln\u00fd pro sv\u011btovou ekonomiku a americk\u00fd export?<\/p>\n

4. Chyby v Trumpov\u011b ekonomick\u00e9m uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h2>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Donald Trump nem\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u00e9 znalosti o mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch financ\u00edch. Nap\u0159\u00edklad myln\u011b tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee zem\u011b je nutn\u011b \u201eztr\u00e1tov\u00e1\u201c, pokud je jej\u00ed \u010dist\u00fd zahrani\u010dn\u00ed obchod se zbo\u017e\u00edm a slu\u017ebami s jin\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi v deficitu. To je myln\u00e1 p\u0159edstava o skute\u010dn\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, zejm\u00e9na pokud doch\u00e1z\u00ed k pohybu finan\u010dn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu mezi zem\u011bmi.<\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt jedna zem\u011b \u010dist\u00fd p\u0159\u00edliv zahrani\u010dn\u00edho finan\u010dn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu. Takov\u00fd \u010dist\u00fd p\u0159\u00edliv finan\u010dn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu zhodnot\u00ed jej\u00ed m\u011bnu a jej\u00ed dovoz bude m\u00edt nutn\u011b tendenci p\u0159evy\u0161ovat jej\u00ed v\u00fdvoz. Zem\u011b pak bude m\u00edt p\u0159ebytek na kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu, ale deficit na b\u011b\u017en\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu (obchodn\u00ed bilance, transferov\u00e9 platby atd.). Takto doch\u00e1z\u00ed k transferu re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu (v podob\u011b stroj\u016f, technologi\u00ed nebo jin\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed) do p\u0159ij\u00edmaj\u00edc\u00ed zem\u011b.<\/p>\n

Plat\u00ed to i obr\u00e1cen\u011b.<\/p>\n

Pokud m\u00e1 zem\u011b \u010dist\u00fd odliv finan\u010dn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu, jej\u00ed m\u011bna bude m\u00edt tendenci znehodnocovat a takov\u00e1 zem\u011b bude m\u00edt tendenci m\u00edt p\u0159ebytek obchodn\u00ed bilance, tj. v\u00edce v\u00fdvozu ne\u017e dovozu zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb. Jej\u00ed obchodn\u00ed bilance se st\u00e1v\u00e1 kladnou, aby mohla p\u0159ev\u00e1d\u011bt re\u00e1ln\u00fd kapit\u00e1l do zahrani\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed platebn\u00ed bilance ka\u017ed\u00e9 zem\u011b je neust\u00e1le udr\u017eov\u00e1na v rovnov\u00e1ze hrou cen a sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurz\u016f, a to je zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm je re\u00e1ln\u00fd kapit\u00e1l p\u0159ev\u00e1d\u011bn z jedn\u00e9 zem\u011b do druh\u00e9. To je element\u00e1rn\u00ed fakt \u00fa\u010detnictv\u00ed platebn\u00ed bilance.<\/p>\n

5. Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed \u00faloha americk\u00e9ho dolaru v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm m\u011bnov\u00e9m a finan\u010dn\u00edm syst\u00e9mu<\/h2>\n

V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, jejich\u017e m\u011bna se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch transakc\u00edch, je toho v\u0161ak v\u00edce.<\/p>\n

To, \u017ee je americk\u00fd dolar hlavn\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnou, toti\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed popt\u00e1vku po t\u00e9to m\u011bn\u011b. Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed dr\u017eba americk\u00fdch dolar\u016f a dolarov\u00fdch aktiv (dluhopis\u016f, akci\u00ed atd.) se prom\u00edt\u00e1 do p\u0159\u00edlivu kapit\u00e1lu do USA, co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed siln\u00fd dolar na devizov\u00fdch trz\u00edch. To umo\u017e\u0148uje Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm dov\u00e1\u017eet a utr\u00e1cet v\u00edce v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, proto\u017ee dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed v\u00edce, ne\u017e vyv\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed. \u010cist\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem je deficit obchodn\u00ed bilance. (Pozn\u00e1mka: Nap\u0159\u00edklad americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u011b vynakl\u00e1d\u00e1 obrovsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1stky na udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 800 vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, co\u017e je \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b financov\u00e1no cizinci dr\u017e\u00edc\u00edmi dolarov\u00e1 aktiva.)<\/p>\n

Je proto pon\u011bkud ironick\u00e9, \u017ee Trump chce na zem\u011b BRICKS uvalit\u00a0100% cla<\/a>, pokud se pokus\u00ed nahradit USD jako sv\u011btovou rezervn\u00ed m\u011bnu!<\/p>\n

Pokud by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty cht\u011bly m\u00edt trval\u00fd p\u0159ebytek obchodn\u00ed bilance, m\u011bly by zabr\u00e1nit rezident\u016fm jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed investovat ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty musely odradit cizince od dr\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch dolar\u016f a od investov\u00e1n\u00ed do dluhopis\u016f a akci\u00ed americk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky by tak\u00e9 nem\u011bly dr\u017eet velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed americk\u00fdch dolar\u016f ve sv\u00fdch ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch rezerv\u00e1ch. Takov\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investice v americk\u00fdch dolarech se objevuj\u00ed jako p\u0159ebytek na kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu americk\u00e9 platebn\u00ed bilance.<\/p>\n

6. Obchodn\u00ed protekcionismus a obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky v kontextu vysok\u00e9ho ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho zadlu\u017een\u00ed<\/h2>\n

Ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 dluhy<\/a>\u00a0jsou v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v mnoha zem\u00edch na rekordn\u00ed \u00farovni. Je to d\u016fsledek dlouholet\u00fdch fisk\u00e1ln\u00edch a finan\u010dn\u00edch exces\u016f \u2013 v\u00fdsledek p\u0159\u00edstupu k fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed a m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice ve stylu \u201eutr\u00e1cet \u2013 p\u016fj\u010dovat \u2013 tisknout\u201c. Po n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho a finan\u010dn\u00edho bujen\u00ed ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech by proto n\u011bkdy v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch letech mohla v n\u011bkolika z\u00e1padn\u00edch ekonomik\u00e1ch nastat v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 recese.<\/p>\n

Pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd pokles americk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu v d\u016fsledku o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky a odvetn\u00fdch cel ostatn\u00edch zem\u00ed by toti\u017e p\u0159ev\u00fd\u0161il jakoukoli expanzi v americk\u00e9m sektoru nahrazuj\u00edc\u00edm dovoz. To by spolu s poklesem ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f mohlo rovn\u011b\u017e p\u0159isp\u011bt ke zpomalen\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n

7. Prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed spekulativn\u00ed m\u00e1nie kolem kryptom\u011bn<\/h2>\n

Za zm\u00ednku stoj\u00ed tak\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 spekulativn\u00ed \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed kolem\u00a0kryptom\u011bn<\/a>, kter\u00e9 je potenci\u00e1ln\u011b proinfla\u010dn\u00edm jevem.<\/p>\n

Kryptom\u011bny jsou soukrom\u00e9 digit\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u011bny, kter\u00e9 jsou zalo\u017eeny na technologii elektronick\u00e9ho \u0161ifrov\u00e1n\u00ed a decentralizovan\u00e9 s\u00edti po\u010d\u00edta\u010d\u016f vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00edch velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed energie, kter\u00e9 \u0159\u00edd\u00ed a zabezpe\u010duj\u00ed jejich v\u00fdrobu. [V roce 2008 anonymn\u00ed subjekt zn\u00e1m\u00fd pod pseudonymem Satoshi Nakamoto vynalezl softwarov\u00fd program pro um\u011bl\u00e9 vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed digit\u00e1ln\u00edho bohatstv\u00ed. Jednalo se o prvn\u00ed a nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00ed digit\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u011bnu zalo\u017eenou na technologii blockchain a zabezpe\u010denou kryptografi\u00ed,\u00a0bitcoin<\/a>.].<\/p>\n

Takzvan\u00fdch kryptom\u011bn existuje cel\u00e1 \u0159ada a nejsou kryty \u017e\u00e1dnou vl\u00e1dou, nejsou regulov\u00e1ny \u017e\u00e1dnou centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bankou a nejsou zalo\u017eeny na \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m fyzick\u00e9m aktivu, jako je nap\u0159\u00edklad zlato. Jejich existence je v podstat\u011b virtu\u00e1ln\u00ed a jejich vnit\u0159n\u00ed hodnota je zalo\u017eena na spekulativn\u00ed p\u0159ita\u017elivosti vzhledem k vysok\u00e9 volatilit\u011b cen a na utajen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je ud\u011bleno t\u011bm, kdo je pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed k prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed anonymn\u00edch transakc\u00ed. Jejich trh je v\u0161ak na nejlep\u0161\u00ed cest\u011b dos\u00e1hnout celkov\u00e9 hodnoty bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se 2 bilion\u016fm dolar\u016f!<\/p>\n

Takov\u00e1 um\u011ble vytvo\u0159en\u00e1 a rizikov\u00e1 soukrom\u00e1 digit\u00e1ln\u00ed \u201eaktiva\u201c v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b podporuje nov\u011b zvolen\u00fd prezident Donal Trump a n\u011bkolik jeho\u00a0prokryptoaktivn\u00edch jmenov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a>. Jsou velmi m\u00edrn\u011b regulov\u00e1na. B\u00fdval\u00fd p\u0159edseda Komise pro cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry a burzy Gary Gensler p\u0159ed Kongresem vypov\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee cel\u00e1 t\u0159\u00edda kryptoaktiv je \u201epln\u00e1 podvod\u016f, \u0161izen\u00ed a zneu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c .<\/p>\n

8. Nejist\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed a ekonomick\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky<\/h2>\n

V\u0161echny v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 faktory by mohly b\u00fdt v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch letech zdrojem ekonomick\u00fdch pot\u00ed\u017e\u00ed. Ve skute\u010dnosti jsou p\u0159\u00edtomny v\u0161echny prvky pro dokonalou hospod\u00e1\u0159skou a finan\u010dn\u00ed bou\u0159i, zejm\u00e9na pokud k tomu p\u0159ipo\u010dteme mo\u017enou konvergenci m\u011bnov\u00e9 krize, fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed krize a finan\u010dn\u00ed krize. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b existuje p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho bujar\u00fdch spekulativn\u00edch bublin na to, aby to nebylo d\u016fvodem k obav\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

Jejich spole\u010dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek by mohl v\u00e9st k obdob\u00ed\u00a0stagflace<\/a>, tj. obdob\u00ed pomal\u00e9ho, nulov\u00e9ho nebo z\u00e1porn\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu v kontextu rostouc\u00edch cen.<\/p>\n

Pokud by takov\u00e1 situace nastala, nen\u00ed vylou\u010deno, \u017ee by mohla p\u0159er\u016fst v t\u011b\u017ekou cyklickou hospod\u00e1\u0159skou recesi, a dokonce mo\u017en\u00e1 i v dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0hospod\u00e1\u0159skou depresi<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Organizace pro hospod\u00e1\u0159skou spolupr\u00e1ci a rozvoj (OECD<\/a>) zase p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee v roce 2025 dos\u00e1hne celosv\u011btov\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst 3,3 %. V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch letech v\u0161ak existuje velk\u00e9 riziko zhor\u0161en\u00ed, pokud by do\u0161lo k v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm\u00a0obchodn\u00edm v\u00e1lk\u00e1m<\/a>\u00a0a dal\u0161\u00edm kriz\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011bry<\/h2>\n

Sv\u011bt je ekonomicky v\u00edce mnohostrann\u00fd a vz\u00e1jemn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00fd ne\u017e kdy d\u0159\u00edve. Pokus o n\u00e1vrat k jednostrann\u00e9mu my\u0161len\u00ed a izolacionismu, jak demagogicky sliboval nov\u011b zvolen\u00fd prezident Donald Trump vn\u00edmav\u00fdm americk\u00fdm voli\u010d\u016fm, by mohl b\u00fdt nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdm experimentem.<\/p>\n

V mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku hroz\u00ed, \u017ee druh\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 obdob\u00ed americk\u00e9ho podnikatelsk\u00e9ho magn\u00e1ta Donalda Trumpa bude velmi znepokojiv\u00e9, nebo\u0165 m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e1\u017en\u011b destabilizovat a naru\u0161it mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 a finan\u010dn\u00ed vztahy, zejm\u00e9na pokud jde o mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed obchod a pohyb kapit\u00e1lu.<\/p>\n

Pokud by toti\u017e nov\u011b zvolen\u00fd prezident Trump pokra\u010doval a spol\u00e9hal na sil\u00e1ckou taktiku, aby dos\u00e1hl jednostrann\u00fdch \u00fastupk\u016f v obchodn\u00edch a jin\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech s jin\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi, mohlo by to rozvr\u00e1tit slo\u017eitou s\u00ed\u0165 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch obchodn\u00edch a finan\u010dn\u00edch vztah\u016f mezi zem\u011bmi, kter\u00e1 byla budov\u00e1na od druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Pokud by Trumpova administrativa prosadila sv\u016fj radik\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd program na dom\u00e1c\u00edm poli, mohla by z toho ekonomika Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu mo\u017en\u00e1 profitovat na \u00fakor jin\u00fdch ekonomik. Ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m a dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu by to v\u0161ak pro sv\u011btovou ekonomiku, ale i pro ekonomiku USA, znamenalo velk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9, finan\u010dn\u00ed a politick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady.<\/p>\n

Zah\u00e1jen\u00ed obchodn\u00edch v\u00e1lek z vnitropolitick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f m\u016f\u017ee vypadat relativn\u011b snadno, ale \u010dist\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9, finan\u010dn\u00ed, m\u011bnov\u00e9 a produktivitn\u00ed d\u016fsledky mohou b\u00fdt v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu velmi destruktivn\u00ed. Jak ukazuj\u00ed merkantilistick\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti z 30. let 20. stolet\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee takov\u00e1 obchodn\u00ed politika zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 dovnit\u0159 zm\u011bnit standardn\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159skou recesi v plnohodnotnou hospod\u00e1\u0159skou depresi.<\/p>\n

S bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edm se st\u00fdm v\u00fdro\u010d\u00edm velk\u00e9ho finan\u010dn\u00edho krachu v roce 1929 by bylo rozumn\u00e9 pou\u010dit se z minul\u00fdch chyb a omyl\u016f. Nap\u0159\u00edklad teprve o \u010dtvrt stolet\u00ed pozd\u011bji, v roce 1954, se americk\u00fd akciov\u00fd trh vr\u00e1til na \u00farove\u0148 p\u0159ed kriz\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm Velk\u00e1 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 krize v letech 1929-1939 p\u0159ipravila p\u016fdu pro druhou sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku (1939-1945) a jej\u00ed katastrofy.<\/p>\n

Prof. Rodrigue Tremblay<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

The Trump Administration\u2019s Agenda and the Likely Economic and Financial Consequences<\/a> vy\u0161el 12.1.2025 na Global Reseach. P\u0159eklad\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201eKdy\u017e se loupe\u017e stane zp\u016fsobem \u017eivota skupiny lid\u00ed \u017eij\u00edc\u00edch ve spole\u010dnosti, vytvo\u0159\u00ed si \u010dasem pr\u00e1vn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":37644,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1324,59,45,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70159"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70159"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70159\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}