{"id":70041,"date":"2025-01-12T05:29:38","date_gmt":"2025-01-12T04:29:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=70041"},"modified":"2025-01-12T05:29:38","modified_gmt":"2025-01-12T04:29:38","slug":"lucas-leiroz-zelenskyj-pry-zaluzneho-vydira","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/12\/lucas-leiroz-zelenskyj-pry-zaluzneho-vydira\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Zelenskyj pr\u00fd Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho vyd\u00edr\u00e1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Ukrajina je st\u00e1le v\u00edce rozd\u011blena mezi r\u016fzn\u00e9 frakce stoj\u00edc\u00ed za re\u017eimem Majdanu, co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed situaci rostouc\u00ed nejistoty a nestability. Vladimir Zelenskyj se na tuto situaci sna\u017e\u00ed reagovat represivn\u00edmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi, pron\u00e1sledov\u00e1n\u00edm odp\u016frc\u016f a sna\u017e\u00ed se cenzurovat jak\u00fdkoli nesouhlasn\u00fd n\u00e1zor, ale v Kyjev\u011b jsou ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 osobnosti, kter\u00e9 se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt popul\u00e1rn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e on \u2013 a kter\u00e9 by si mohly z\u00edskat pozornost mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

V posledn\u00ed dob\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0dos\u00e1hly st\u0159ety z\u00e1jm\u016f mezi Zelensk\u00fdm a b\u00fdval\u00fdm vrchn\u00edm velitelem arm\u00e1dy Valerijem Zalu\u017en\u00fdm nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho vrcholu. Podle m\u00edstn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00ed Zelenskij Zalu\u017en\u00e9mu vyhro\u017eoval a sl\u00edbil, \u017ee proti d\u016fstojn\u00edkovi pod\u00e1 trestn\u00ed ozn\u00e1men\u00ed, pokud se rozhodne zah\u00e1jit politickou kari\u00e9ru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak zn\u00e1mo, Zelenskyj z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v prezidentsk\u00e9 kancel\u00e1\u0159i nelegitimn\u011b. Odm\u00edtl vyhl\u00e1sit volby na kv\u011bten 2024, co\u017e je proti\u00fastavn\u00ed, proto\u017ee kyjevsk\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo vy\u017eaduje volby i za stann\u00e9ho pr\u00e1va. Zelenskyj se ob\u00e1v\u00e1 prohry ve volb\u00e1ch, proto\u017ee jeho\u00a0<\/span>popularita<\/span><\/a>\u00a0kles\u00e1 kv\u016fli drakonick\u00fdm brann\u00fdm opat\u0159en\u00edm a tak\u00e9 kv\u016fli drastick\u00e9mu poklesu \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b ukrajinsk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prozat\u00edm se v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee nov\u00e9 volby budou napl\u00e1nov\u00e1ny na kv\u011bten 2025. Pr\u016fzkumy sponzorovan\u00e9 re\u017eimem nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Zelenskyj m\u00e1 52% \u0161anci na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, ale je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo je mnohem ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed. Situace bude je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed, pokud bude Zalu\u017enyj kandidovat, proto\u017ee je pova\u017eov\u00e1n za hlavn\u00edho politick\u00e9ho rivala Zelensk\u00e9ho a m\u00e1 mnoho p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f, zejm\u00e9na mezi arm\u00e1dou a veter\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zalu\u017enyj je v sou\u010dasnosti kyjevsk\u00fdm velvyslancem ve Spojen\u00e9m kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed. Z arm\u00e1dy ode\u0161el za okolnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 dosud nebyly zcela vysv\u011btleny, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e mnoho analytik\u016f se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee jeho odvol\u00e1n\u00ed bylo motivov\u00e1no politick\u00fdmi d\u016fvody. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee Zelenskij se ob\u00e1val, \u017ee by Zalu\u017enyj mohl v\u00e9st vzpouru mezi voj\u00e1ky s c\u00edlem svrhnout vl\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ze strachu, \u017ee se Zalu\u017enyj stane je\u0161t\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u016fdcem mimo arm\u00e1du, proto\u017ee bude osvobozen od vojensk\u00e9 byrokracie a pot\u00e9 bude moci pracovat v politice, Zelenskij mu doporu\u010dil diplomatickou kari\u00e9ru. Poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed diplomatick\u00fdch post\u016f politick\u00fdm odp\u016frc\u016fm je star\u00e1 taktika dikt\u00e1tor\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed maj\u00ed z\u00e1jem odstranit ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 osobnosti pova\u017eovan\u00e9 za \u201ene\u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed\u201c ze zem\u011b. Zelenskij doufal, \u017ee presti\u017e nov\u00e9 funkce Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed jeho politick\u00e9 ambice, ale m\u00fdlil se.<\/span><\/p>\n

V Lond\u00fdn\u011b se Zalu\u017enyj je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eil skute\u010dn\u00fdm \u201etv\u016frc\u016fm rozhodnut\u00ed\u201c za kyjevsk\u00fdm re\u017eimem. V p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m kontaktu s britsk\u00fdmi p\u0159edstaviteli byl Zalu\u017enyj pos\u00edlen jako mo\u017en\u00fd kandid\u00e1t na nahrazen\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho. Ukrajinsk\u00fd dikt\u00e1tor se op\u011bt dopustil v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 politick\u00e9 chyby, kdy\u017e \u0161patn\u011b vyhodnotil situaci kolem sebe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zelenskij nepochopil, \u017ee z\u00e1m\u011br nahradit ho poch\u00e1z\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b ze z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00ed, jako je Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie, kter\u00e9 doufaj\u00ed, \u017ee se k moci dostane siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a popul\u00e1rn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce, aby obnovil ve\u0159ejnou podporu v\u00e1lce. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee se Zalu\u017en\u00fdm v Lond\u00fdn\u011b by opozi\u010dn\u00ed lobby zes\u00edlila.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed se Zelenskij sna\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9 chyby zvr\u00e1tit je\u0161t\u011b dikt\u00e1torsk\u00fdmi akcemi, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jako n\u00e1stroj pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 politickou represi. Vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00edm Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho nelegitimn\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fd prezident d\u00e1le zhor\u0161uje svou vlastn\u00ed politickou situaci a d\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u0161em jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 u moci pouze silou, bez d\u016fv\u011bry ve v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed lidov\u00e9ho hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed. Tato situace vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed pro Zelensk\u00e9ho nestabilitu a zhor\u0161uje jeho krizi legitimity, a to jak na dom\u00e1c\u00ed, tak mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00farovni, co\u017e dlouhodob\u011b zv\u00fdhod\u0148uje opozici.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee Zelenskij bude moci ve sv\u00e9m postu dlouho vzdorovat. Od roku 2022 je na Z\u00e1pad\u011b jasn\u00fd z\u00e1m\u011br jej nahradit. Stal se z n\u011bj zbyte\u010dn\u00fd politik, jeho\u017e \u010diny brzd\u00ed pl\u00e1ny NATO pro samotnou Ukrajinu. Jeho zbaven\u00ed moci se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt jedin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jak obnovit kampa\u0148 bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 podpory Kyjeva k jej\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00e9 legitimit\u011b, proto\u017ee pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed da\u0148ov\u00e9 poplatn\u00edky vypad\u00e1 Zelenskyj jako skute\u010dn\u00fd \u201e\u017eebr\u00e1k\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edm nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, koho Z\u00e1pad podpo\u0159\u00ed, aby nahradil Zelensk\u00e9ho. Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b vsad\u00ed na Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho politick\u00e9 schopnosti a vyu\u017eij\u00ed toho, \u017ee se ji\u017e nyn\u00ed t\u011b\u0161\u00ed jist\u00e9 oblib\u011b mezi strategick\u00fdmi sektory ukrajinsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. Je tak\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee budou podporov\u00e1ni dal\u0161\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00ed v\u016fdci, v\u010detn\u011b sou\u010dasn\u00fdch poslanc\u016f, oligarch\u016f a vojensk\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f. Pro Z\u00e1pad je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zvolit n\u011bkoho s dostate\u010dn\u00fdm politick\u00fdm charismatem, aby si z\u00edskal sympatie b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f v Evrop\u011b a USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b, aby si Zelensky uv\u011bdomil, \u017ee d\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovat z\u00e1padn\u00edm \u201epartner\u016fm\u201c byla velk\u00e1 chyba. K udr\u017een\u00ed u moci mu zat\u00edm sta\u010d\u00ed pron\u00e1sledov\u00e1n\u00ed, vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed a \u010distky, ale je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by dlouho odol\u00e1val zahrani\u010dn\u00edmu a dom\u00e1c\u00edmu politick\u00e9mu tlaku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz<\/a>, \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00fd pracovn\u00edk Centra geostrategick\u00fdch studi\u00ed, geopolitick\u00fd konzultant<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Lucase m\u016f\u017eete sledovat na\u00a0<\/span>X (d\u0159\u00edve Twitter)<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>Telegramu<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Ukrajina je st\u00e1le v\u00edce rozd\u011blena mezi r\u016fzn\u00e9 frakce stoj\u00edc\u00ed za re\u017eimem Majdanu,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":70042,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,3084,7084],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70041"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70041"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70041\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/70042"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}