{"id":70039,"date":"2025-01-12T00:42:47","date_gmt":"2025-01-11T23:42:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=70039"},"modified":"2025-01-11T18:09:57","modified_gmt":"2025-01-11T17:09:57","slug":"zbynek-fiala-washingtonu-hori-posledni-rezervy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/12\/zbynek-fiala-washingtonu-hori-posledni-rezervy\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Washingtonu ho\u0159\u00ed posledn\u00ed rezervy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Mas\u00edvn\u00ed pomoc sp\u00e1len\u00e9mu Los Angeles naraz\u00ed na to, \u017ee feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1da znovu narazila na dluhov\u00fd strop a za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 se vy\u0161krabovat.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Po\u017e\u00e1r v\u00a0Los Angeles, kter\u00fd k\u0159es\u0165an\u016fm p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 peklo a ateist\u016fm Hiro\u0161imu, tvrd\u011b zato\u010d\u00ed se zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edmi voln\u00fdmi zdroji feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dy ve Washingtonu. To bude opravdov\u00fd st\u00e1tnick\u00fd o\u0159\u00ed\u0161ek hned v\u00a0prvn\u00edch minut\u00e1ch Trumpovy vl\u00e1dy, proto\u017ee z\u00e1rove\u0148 naraz\u00ed na obnoven\u00fd dluhov\u00fd strop. Pokud vl\u00e1da pom\u016f\u017ee vyp\u00e1len\u00e9mu m\u011bstu, bude to drah\u00e9. Kde na to ale vz\u00edt? Pokud v\u0161ak na to nep\u0159ijde a nepom\u016f\u017ee, krize se povle\u010de a bude je\u0161t\u011b dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed. A hlavn\u011b je\u0161t\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0p\u00e1tek r\u00e1no odhadovala meteorologick\u00e1 slu\u017eba celkov\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty ho\u0159\u00edc\u00edho Los Angeles mezi 135 a 150 miliardami dolar\u016f. Vyp\u00e1leno bylo zat\u00edm deset tis\u00edc budov. Do \u0161kod je t\u0159eba zahrnout tak\u00e9 tot\u00e1ln\u00ed ochromen\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch aktivit sp\u00e1leni\u0161t\u011b, kde nebude fungovat t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nic, lid\u00e9 pochopiteln\u011b p\u0159ijdou o pracovn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy a zmiz\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka. Nebo nezmiz\u00ed, lid\u00e9 dostanou n\u011bjakou pomoc, ale ta se bude \u010derpat z\u00a0rozpo\u010dt\u016f, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed ochromen\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy.<\/p>\n

Teoreticky by se to dalo zvl\u00e1dnout tiskem nov\u00fdch pen\u011bz, kter\u00e9 nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt infla\u010dn\u00ed, proto\u017ee nep\u0159inesou p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek, ale jen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dnou n\u00e1hradu spot\u0159eby a hlavn\u011b obnovu produkce. Jen\u017ee rozpo\u010det je vysoce politick\u00e1 z\u00e1le\u017eitost, kde se na teorii nehraje.<\/p>\n

Prosincov\u00e1 kongresov\u00e1 tahanice o dal\u0161\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dy sice skon\u010dila na posledn\u00ed chv\u00edli dohodou, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 proviz\u00f3rium Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f vydr\u017e\u00ed a\u017e do 14. b\u0159ezna, tedy skoro dva m\u011bs\u00edce Trumpovy vl\u00e1dy. Jen\u017ee vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch zdroj\u016f nebylo v\u0161echno, o co se tady hr\u00e1lo. Na stole se objevil tak\u00e9 dluhov\u00fd strop, jeho\u017e platnost byla jen pozastavena do konce minul\u00e9ho roku. Te\u010f u\u017e dluhov\u00fd strop op\u011bt plat\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b jde na obsluhu zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho dluhu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 36,1 bilionu dolar\u016f zhruba t\u0159etina voln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, kter\u00fd loni po\u010d\u00edtal s v\u00fddaji 6,8 bilionu dolar\u016f. Dluhov\u00fd strop znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Kongres mus\u00ed od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u0161echny rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 n\u00e1vrhy porovn\u00e1vat s\u00a0limitem 36,1 bilionu (tis\u00edc\u016f miliard) dolar\u016f pro celkov\u00e9 zadlu\u017een\u00ed feder\u00e1ln\u00edch financ\u00ed. Nad tento strop, do kter\u00e9ho u\u017e trk\u00e1, si p\u016fj\u010dovat nesm\u00ed. Jsme tedy znovu tam, kde jsme byli na konci prosince.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump se sna\u017eil p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit z\u00e1konod\u00e1rce, aby mu strop zv\u00fd\u0161ili. Pro\u010d taky ne, d\u011blalo se to v\u017edycky, a to u\u017e strop m\u00e1me od roku 1914. Jen\u017ee te\u010f narazil na z\u00e1sadov\u00e9 konzervativn\u00ed k\u0159\u00eddlo vlastn\u00ed Republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9 strany, kter\u00e9 za jedinou p\u0159ijatelnou zm\u011bnu pova\u017euje naopak sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed stropu. Tahle skupina m\u00e1 asi deset poslanc\u016f, co\u017e je proklat\u011b v\u00edc ne\u017e jeden hl\u00e1sek, kter\u00fd sm\u00ed republik\u00e1nsk\u00e1 p\u016fle sn\u011bmovny ztratit, aby j\u00ed n\u00e1vrh pro\u0161el.<\/p>\n

Trump se podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f u\u017e p\u0159izp\u016fsobil, kdy\u017e se sna\u017e\u00ed vym\u011bnit drahou v\u00e1lku s\u00a0Ruskem za lacin\u00e9 \u0161arv\u00e1tky s\u00a0Gr\u00f3nskem a Panamou. N\u00e1kladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u0161ak bude \u201evelk\u00e1 r\u00e1na\u201c chystan\u00e9ho bal\u00edku z\u00e1kon\u016f, kter\u00e9 shrnou imigraci, energetiku, sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dan\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed politiky s\u00a0bili\u00f3nov\u00fdmi rozpo\u010dty. Na tenhle bal\u00edk se Trump obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 t\u011b\u0161il, proto\u017ee je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee ho vep\u00ed\u0161e rovnou do historie. Nov\u011b zvolen\u00fd p\u0159edseda sn\u011bmovny Mike Johnson sl\u00edbil, \u017ee do toho p\u016fjde. Ale m\u00e1 na to? P\u0159i chabou\u010dk\u00e9 republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b je to dr\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed hada bosou nohou.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden, je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed Trumpovou inaugurac\u00ed, tedy bude nejsp\u00ed\u0161 ozn\u00e1meno, \u017ee feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1da znovu vy\u010derpala rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 mo\u017enosti a za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 se vy\u0161krabovat. St\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy se platit mus\u00ed, tak\u017ee na n\u011b p\u016fjdou pen\u00edze z\u00a0hotovostn\u00ed rezervy 800 miliard dolar\u016f, kterou m\u00e1 ministerstvo financ\u00ed nasysleno. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed kalifornsk\u00fdmi po\u017e\u00e1ry se odhadovalo, \u017ee mistr \u00farovn\u011b Janet Yellenov\u00e9, kter\u00e1 vedla finance Bidenov\u011b vl\u00e1d\u011b, s\u00a0t\u00edm vydr\u017e\u00ed skoro do l\u00e9ta. To zahrnovalo p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee v\u00a0b\u0159eznu do t\u011bch rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch h\u00e1dek nasko\u010d\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b konec sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho proviz\u00f3ria, tak\u017ee fin\u00e1le bude v\u00a0re\u017eimu dvojit\u00e9ho stisku.<\/p>\n

Nov\u00fd ministr financ\u00ed, kter\u00fdm m\u00e1 b\u00fdt Scott Bessent, je prohnan\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00edk v\u00a0oboru pen\u00edze t\u011bch druh\u00fdch (investi\u010dn\u00ed fondy). Ten by se v\u00a0tom nemusel utopit. Jen\u017ee to je\u0161t\u011b neho\u0159elo. Te\u010f ho\u0159\u00ed, a \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l v\u00edc. Hasi\u010d\u016fm v\u00a0Los Angeles ve \u010dtvrtek do\u0161la voda z\u00a0m\u011bstsk\u00fdch po\u017e\u00e1rn\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed. Snad si s t\u00edm n\u011bjak poradili, ale ty nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed plameny byly v\u00a0p\u00e1tek st\u00e1le mimo kontrolu. P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 se s\u00edl\u00edc\u00edm v\u011btrem, kter\u00fd ohe\u0148 znovu rozdmych\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Ho\u0159\u00ed tak stra\u0161liv\u011b, proto\u017ee v\u0161echno je vyschl\u00e9. Pry\u010d jsou \u010dasy, kdy bylo v\u00a0Kalifornii touto ro\u010dn\u00ed dobou kr\u00e1sn\u011b hnusn\u011b, proto\u017ee soustavn\u011b pr\u0161elo. Vlekl\u00e9 sucho se p\u0159ipisuje klimatick\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m. Sucho bylo i jinde v\u00a0regionu, loni m\u00e1lem zablokovalo Panamsk\u00fd kan\u00e1l. Stejnou p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinu m\u00e1 tak\u00e9 neust\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed vichr, kter\u00fd \u017eene plameny d\u00e1l a d\u00e1l, proto\u017ee vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed teploty atmosf\u00e9ry mu dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00edce energie.<\/p>\n

Zni\u010den\u00e9 m\u011bsto je n\u011bco v\u00edc ne\u017e vyp\u00e1len\u00e9 budovy, a t\u0159eba i knihovny a koncertn\u00ed s\u00edn\u011b nebo nedejbo\u017ee filmov\u00e1 studia Hollywoodu. Vypa\u0159\u00ed se genius loci, duch soun\u00e1le\u017eitosti a kultury, kter\u00fd umo\u017e\u0148uje, aby tolik lid\u00ed mohlo dobrovoln\u011b \u017e\u00edt, pracovat a tvo\u0159it nacp\u00e1no do tak mal\u00e9ho prostoru. Nekone\u010dn\u00e1 sp\u00e1leni\u0161t\u011b d\u011bs\u00ed p\u0159edstavou, \u017ee m\u011bsto zahynulo. Sice nebylo bombardov\u00e1no, jako Gaza, nep\u0159ehnala se p\u0159es n\u011bj fronta jako na Donbase, nebylo spl\u00e1chnuto jedn\u00edm mocn\u00fdm v\u00fdbuchem, o kter\u00fd si hrdinn\u00ed politici, kte\u0159\u00ed pak zalezou do d\u00edry, vytrvale koleduj\u00ed. Ale vypad\u00e1 to skoro stejn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Americk\u00e1 historie vypov\u00edd\u00e1 hodn\u011b o odolnosti lid\u00ed v\u00a0t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch kriz\u00edch, ale bez pen\u011bz se to povle\u010de. Donald Trump bude muset do sn\u011bmovny, aby prolomil rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd a dluhov\u00fd krun\u00fd\u0159, ale to se neobejde bez debaty o klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn\u00e1ch a roli st\u00e1tu. Nejen por\u00e1\u017eka, i pouh\u00e9 zdr\u017een\u00ed by bylo krut\u00e9. U\u017e na konci roku se mluvilo tom, \u017ee rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 spory by se mohly projevit zhor\u0161en\u00edm ratingu Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, co\u017e je tot\u00e9\u017e, jako kdy\u017e \u0159ekneme, \u017ee st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh bude dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b jde na obsluhu zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho dluhu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 36,1 bilionu dolar\u016f zhruba t\u0159etina voln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, kter\u00fd loni po\u010d\u00edtal s\u00a0v\u00fddaji 6,8 bilionu dolar\u016f. Kongresov\u00fd odpor proti zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed feder\u00e1ln\u00edho dluhu m\u00e1 smysl. Je tu tak\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed riziko \u2013 popt\u00e1vka po st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopisech USA za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 m\u00edt trhliny. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u011b\u0159itel \u010c\u00edna u\u017e srazil sv\u00e9 dolarov\u00e9 rezervy zhruba na t\u0159etinu maxima. V zahrani\u010dn\u011b\u00a0obchodn\u00edch platb\u00e1ch n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u00ed za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed pokusy s\u00a0nahrazen\u00edm dolaru lok\u00e1ln\u00edmi m\u011bnami nebo n\u011bjak\u00fdm ko\u0161em bez dolaru. Zat\u00edm to moc nejde, ale mechanismus transakc\u00ed se d\u00e1 \u0161lechtit i na p\u011btn\u00edkov\u00fdch objemech. Tak\u017ee to za p\u00e1r let p\u0159ijde.<\/p>\n

Trump u\u017e vyhro\u017eoval, \u017ee s\u00a0takov\u00fdmi zato\u010d\u00ed. Po\u017eaduje taky prudk\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed popt\u00e1vky po kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch americk\u00fdch komodit\u00e1ch, kter\u00fdmi jsou LNG a zbran\u011b, jinak \u2026<\/p>\n

Sil\u00e1ck\u00e9 \u0159e\u010di b\u00fdvaj\u00ed zn\u00e1mkou slabosti. Krize b\u00fdvaj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed ke zm\u011bn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Los Angeles nepochybn\u011b dostane mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed pomoc, ale bude ji prov\u00e1zet debata, jak se z\u00a0t\u00e9to ud\u00e1losti pou\u010dit. Mo\u017en\u00e1 nejde o peklo, ale jen o\u010distec, kde utrpen\u00ed je aktivn\u00ed l\u00e1tkou \u010dist\u00edrny du\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edm ho\u0159\u00ed daleko, ale \u010desk\u00e9 lesy tak\u00e9 vysychaj\u00ed, \u010desk\u00e9 dluhy n\u00e1s taky cht\u011bj\u00ed zavalit, \u010desk\u00e1 debata si taky na teorii moc nehraje. Nen\u00ed to jen o nich, je to i o n\u00e1s.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Mas\u00edvn\u00ed pomoc sp\u00e1len\u00e9mu Los Angeles naraz\u00ed na to, \u017ee feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1da znovu narazila na dluhov\u00fd…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":36194,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,624,37,352],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70039"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70039"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70039\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36194"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}