{"id":69674,"date":"2025-01-07T00:42:45","date_gmt":"2025-01-06T23:42:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=69674"},"modified":"2025-01-06T17:33:02","modified_gmt":"2025-01-06T16:33:02","slug":"zbynek-fiala-je-to-docela-nervak-nez-trump-nastoupi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/07\/zbynek-fiala-je-to-docela-nervak-nez-trump-nastoupi\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Je to docela nerv\u00e1k, ne\u017e Trump nastoup\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Alternativn\u00ed m\u00e9dia pozorn\u011b sleduj\u00ed paniku v \u0159ad\u00e1ch sil spojen\u00fdch s washingtonsk\u00fdmi neocons, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed o sv\u00e9 v\u011b\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rok 2025 bude rokem alternativn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00ed. Muskova soci\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 X u\u017e na americk\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u011b dominuje, a nejen tam, ke zd\u011b\u0161en\u00ed mnoh\u00fdch. U n\u00e1s zesiluj\u00ed pokusy alternativn\u00ed sc\u00e9nu uml\u010det, ale t\u011b\u017eko se pak m\u016f\u017ee vl\u00e1da za\u0159\u00edkat demokraci\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Velmi obohacuj\u00edc\u00ed je alternativn\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 sbli\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed se slovensk\u00fdmi zdroji, jak to vid\u00edme t\u0159eba na Va\u0161\u00ed v\u011bci v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvc\u00edch z bratislavsk\u00e9ho Nov\u00e9ho slova. Ale oni zase p\u0159eb\u00edraj\u00ed n\u00e1s. Spole\u010dn\u011b tak zarovn\u00e1v\u00e1me nesmysln\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkop mezi na\u0161imi bratrsk\u00fdmi n\u00e1rody, kter\u00fd se vl\u00e1da sna\u017e\u00ed kr\u00e1tkozrace vykopat.<\/p>\n

Te\u010f maj\u00ed alternativn\u00ed m\u00e9dia ide\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost, kter\u00e9 se m\u00e9dia hlavn\u00edho proudu boj\u00ed dotknout. Bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se n\u00e1stup nov\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa ohro\u017euje nikoliv jen p\u00e1r vrcholov\u00fdch funkcion\u00e1\u0159\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se snadno vym\u011bn\u00ed, ale cel\u00fd syst\u00e9m, a s\u00a0nimi i spoustu zahrani\u010dn\u00edch slouh\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed na n\u011bm byli z\u00e1visl\u00ed. Je to drama, jak\u00e9 generace neza\u017eily. Potvrzuj\u00ed to opakovan\u00e9 pokusy Trumpa zab\u00edt.<\/p>\n

Nenahl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se do toho snadno. Nejzaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jsou pohledy b\u00fdval\u00fdch zpravodajc\u016f, \u0161\u00e9f\u016f tajn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb, lid\u00ed se zku\u0161enost\u00ed z\u00a0nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed exekutivy, kte\u0159\u00ed znaj\u00ed logiku rozhodovac\u00edho procesu. Dnes bych dal p\u0159ednost post\u0159eh\u016fm ze zahrani\u010dn\u00edch zdroj\u016f, kter\u00e9 se vyskytuj\u00ed na platform\u011b Substack.<\/p>\n

Mnoz\u00ed sv\u00e9 blogy provozuj\u00ed skoro jako den\u00edk. Strategick\u00fd analytik Julian McFarlain, kter\u00fd tam vede \u201eforenzn\u00ed zpravodajstv\u00ed<\/em>\u201c (News Forensic<\/em>) a sleduje z\u00a0Tokia zejm\u00e9na asijskou sc\u00e9nu, si v\u0161\u00edm\u00e1 snahy odch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho establishmentu sv\u00e1zat Trumpovi ruce, aby i on byl uzav\u0159en do syst\u00e9mu nekone\u010dn\u00fdch v\u00e1lek.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/open.substack.com\/pub\/julianmacfarlane\/p\/the-head-of-the-snake<\/a><\/p>\n

Je to docela nerv\u00e1k, jak p\u00ed\u0161e:<\/p>\n

Do Trumpovy inaugurace zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed pouh\u00e9 dva t\u00fddny a n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici, dokonce i n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed zn\u00e1m\u00ed a uzn\u00e1van\u00ed, hovo\u0159\u00ed o mo\u017enosti izraelsko-americk\u00e9ho \u00faderu na \u00cdr\u00e1n, kter\u00fd by „u\u0159\u00edzl hlavu hadovi“. Nejsem si jist\u00fd, zda jde o hlavu \u00cdr\u00e1nu, nebo Trumpa. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee tato my\u0161lenka koluje v britsk\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch, co\u017e je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b had\u00ed j\u00e1ma.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ti, kte\u0159\u00ed tomuto nesmyslu v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, to zd\u016fvod\u0148uj\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee Izraelci bombarduj\u00ed syrsk\u00e9 syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, aby mohli nepozorovan\u011b vyslat velkou flotilu letadel sm\u011brem k \u00cdr\u00e1nu, co\u017e ukazuje, jak se pl\u00fdtv\u00e1 dobr\u00e9 vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed na \u0161patn\u00e9 mozky.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pt\u00e1te se, pro\u010d \u00fatok zrovna te\u010f?<\/em><\/p>\n

Za p\u00e1r dn\u00ed, 17. ledna nav\u0161t\u00edv\u00ed Moskvu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd prezident Mas\u00fad Peze\u0161k\u00e1n, aby podepsal dohodu o komplexn\u00ed vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci, kter\u00e1 samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zahrnuje i spolupr\u00e1ci v oblasti bezpe\u010dnosti. S ruskou pomoc\u00ed bude \u00cdr\u00e1n do roka v mnohem siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozici, aby se mohl br\u00e1nit. A Ore\u0161n\u00edk uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee k tomu nepot\u0159ebujete jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Tak\u017ee USA a Izraeli nezb\u00fdv\u00e1 mnoho \u010dasu!<\/em><\/p>\n

O to, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 a \u00cdr\u00e1nci podep\u00ed\u0161\u00ed dohodu o vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci, Z\u00e1pad v\u00ed u\u017e m\u011bs\u00edce. Rusko sd\u00edl\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nci vojensk\u00e9 technologie a syst\u00e9my na z\u00e1klad\u011b dohody quid pro quo (n\u011bco za n\u011bco). Maj\u00ed tam protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my S-400, radary dlouh\u00e9ho dosahu jako je Voron\u011b\u017e-DM, letouny Su-35 a podobn\u011b. Chystan\u00e1 dohoda o vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci je v\u0161ak zam\u011b\u0159ena na obchod, pr\u016fmysl, dopravu, je to dlouhodob\u00e1, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm ekonomick\u00e1 dohoda. Vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1le\u017eitosti se ji\u017e \u0159e\u0161\u00ed bez n\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o zni\u010den\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany S\u00fdrie, nem\u011blo to vliv na schopnost \u00cdr\u00e1nu br\u00e1nit se, a\u0165 u\u017e si o tom mysl\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed analytici cokoliv. Rusov\u00e9 nikdy nedodali S\u00fdrii sv\u00e9 nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed syst\u00e9my ani nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed radary. Syst\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 dodali, byly ur\u010deny k detekci a obran\u011b bl\u00edzk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, byly o generaci pozadu. Zato \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 radary (\u00fadajn\u011b s dosahem a\u017e 10 000 km) s\u00a0protiletadlov\u00fdmi vlastnostmi a nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi zvonky a p\u00ed\u0161\u0165alkami.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ir\u00e1n m\u00e1 tak\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 radary. A svoje vlastn\u00ed. Jeho rakety protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany m\u00edstn\u00ed v\u00fdroby jsou velmi dobr\u00e9, ale vedle nich m\u00e1 i rusk\u00e9 a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 syst\u00e9my. K tomu je t\u0159eba p\u0159ipo\u010d\u00edst, \u017ee pro omezen\u00fd po\u010det izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch letoun\u016f prvn\u00ed linie je to z Izraele do \u00cdr\u00e1nu velmi daleko. Nen\u00ed to kr\u00e1tk\u00fd skok jako do Bejr\u00fatu, ji\u017en\u00ed S\u00fdrie nebo Gazy. Naposledy se \u00cdr\u00e1nci o takov\u00e9m \u00fatoku dozv\u011bd\u011bli v\u010das, a byl proto naprosto ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pokud by se Izrael pokusil ude\u0159it na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 c\u00edle \u2013 v\u011bt\u0161ina z nich je zakop\u00e1na hluboko pod zem\u00ed a vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00fdhod hornat\u00e9ho ter\u00e9nu \u2013 byl by op\u011bt tvrd\u011b pora\u017een. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je t\u0159eba vz\u00edt v \u00favahu americk\u00e9 letadlov\u00e9 lod\u011b, ale ty si zat\u00edm nedok\u00e1zaly poradit s\u00a0H\u00fat\u00edi, jsou pro n\u011b velk\u00fdm a velmi zraniteln\u00fdm c\u00edlem. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety, kdyby na to do\u0161lo, jsou p\u0159itom mnohem vysp\u011blej\u0161\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

Posledn\u00ed izraelsk\u00fd pokus o \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n zp\u016fsobil minim\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161kody. Nest\u00e1ly za to, aby \u00cdr\u00e1n odpov\u00eddal masivn\u00ed odvetou, kter\u00e1 by m\u011bla Izrael a jeho arm\u00e1du existen\u010dn\u011b ohrozit. Nem\u011blo smysl vyprovokovat velkou v\u00e1lku kv\u016fli bezv\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu a ne\u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9mu \u00faderu. A Biden je u\u017e na odchodu.<\/em><\/p>\n

Av\u0161ak masivn\u00ed \u00fatok USA a Izraele by si vynutil odpov\u011b\u010f, kter\u00e1 by nutn\u011b byla tot\u00e1ln\u00ed. Potopit letadlovou lo\u010f nebo dv\u011b? Zni\u010dit polovinu Tel Avivu a v\u0161echny izraelsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny plus energetickou s\u00ed\u0165?<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n m\u011bl prost\u0159edky na obranu u\u017e d\u0159\u00edve, av\u0161ak nyn\u00ed m\u00e1 v\u00edce zdroj\u016f a m\u016f\u017ee to ud\u011blat \u00fapln\u011bji.<\/em><\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b se mohu m\u00fdlit,\u00a0<\/em>uklid\u0148uje n\u00e1s nakonec strategick\u00fd analytik Julian McFarlane\u2026<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alternativn\u00ed m\u00e9dia pozorn\u011b sleduj\u00ed paniku v \u0159ad\u00e1ch sil spojen\u00fdch s washingtonsk\u00fdmi neocons, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66317,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,2736,122,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69674"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69674"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69674\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69674"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69674"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69674"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}