{"id":69548,"date":"2025-01-05T00:36:16","date_gmt":"2025-01-04T23:36:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=69548"},"modified":"2025-01-04T16:55:12","modified_gmt":"2025-01-04T15:55:12","slug":"jiri-paroubek-stagnace-ceske-ekonomiky-duvod-k-blbe-nalade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/05\/jiri-paroubek-stagnace-ceske-ekonomiky-duvod-k-blbe-nalade\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Stagnace \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky\u2026. d\u016fvod k blb\u00e9 n\u00e1lad\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Prezident ve sv\u00e9m novoro\u010dn\u00edm poselstv\u00ed tak trochu oblboval sv\u00e9 spoluob\u010dany t\u00edm, kdy\u017e \u0159\u00edkal, \u017ee nen\u00ed d\u016fvod k blb\u00e9 n\u00e1lad\u011b. Kdy\u017e si odmysl\u00edm zoufal\u00e9 v\u00fdkony vl\u00e1dy Petra Fialy a jednotliv\u00fdch jejich \u010dlen\u016f, je d\u016fvod blb\u00e9 n\u00e1lady mo\u017en\u00e9 vid\u011bt p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v oblasti ekonomiky. A jej\u00edho pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje v nov\u00e9m roce 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Podle \u010cesk\u00e9ho statistick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu (\u010cS\u00da), \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika rostla ve 3. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2024 meziro\u010dn\u011b o 1,4%. Celkem bych si tipnul, \u017ee p\u0159i dal\u0161\u00edm zp\u0159esn\u011bn\u00ed ze strany \u010cS\u00da, dojde ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed tohoto i tak nep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9ho \u010d\u00edsla, charakterizuj\u00edc\u00edho minim\u00e1ln\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst ve 3.\u010dtvrtlet\u00ed minul\u00e9ho roku. R\u016fst \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky v minul\u00e9m roce se tak bude pohybovat nejsp\u00ed\u0161 tak do jednoho procenta.<\/p>\n

Haruspikov\u00e9 \u010desk\u00e9ho ministerstva financ\u00ed odhadli hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst \u010ceska v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce (2025) na 2,7%. Na tento hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst jsou zkalkulov\u00e1ny tak\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu na rok 2025. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku, kdy\u017e se toto optimistick\u00e9 hausnumero objevilo, jsem p\u0159ehnan\u00fd a povinn\u00fd optimismus MF ost\u0159e kritizoval.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed, pro\u010d by vlastn\u011b m\u011blo v tomto roce doch\u00e1zet k hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9mu r\u016fstu? Tak p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm, n\u011bmeck\u00e1 ekonomika zaznamen\u00e1 stagnaci a mo\u017en\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e m\u00edrn\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd pokles. S n\u011bmeckou ekonomikou je ta \u010desk\u00e1 v\u00e1z\u00e1na tis\u00edcer\u00fdmi pouty. T\u0159etina na\u0161\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bny je pr\u00e1v\u011b s N\u011bmeckem. To je prost\u011b historick\u00e1 danost, kterou nezm\u011bn\u00edme. N\u011bmeck\u00e1 ekonomika se zat\u00edm nedok\u00e1zala vyrovnat s t\u00edm, \u017ee se tak trochu i d\u00edky nep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 bystr\u00fdm n\u011bmeck\u00fdm politik\u016fm, zbavila dovozu levn\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch surovin pro sv\u016fj pr\u016fmysl. To znamenalo zna\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen vstup\u016f n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, a tedy pokles jeho konkuren\u010dn\u00ed schopnosti na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch. Dokladem tohoto nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje je p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm situace vlajkov\u00e9 lodi n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, firmy Volkswagen. Prost\u011b, n\u011bmeck\u00e1 prosperita v posledn\u00edch des\u00edtk\u00e1ch let byla z\u00e1visl\u00e1 rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed m\u011brou na dovozu levn\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch surovin. Te\u010f, m\u00edsto levn\u00e9ho plynu pro sv\u016fj pr\u016fmysl, dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed N\u011bmci podstatn\u011b dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed LNG plyn americk\u00fd \u010di jin\u00fd. A tak\u00e9 ceny pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch kov\u016f a zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch komodit unisono vzrostly.<\/p>\n

N\u011bmci maj\u00ed na krku do budoucna tak\u00e9 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje, kter\u00fdch se do\u017eaduj\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u00e9, respektive jejich politick\u00fd a vojensk\u00fd deriv\u00e1t, j\u00edm\u017e je bruselsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1la NATO. N\u011bmci jsou jednou ze zem\u00ed NATO, kter\u00e1 velmi siln\u011b nepln\u00ed z\u00e1vazek dvou procent v\u00fddaj\u016f na zbrojen\u00ed ze sv\u00e9ho HDP. N\u011bmci ch\u00e1pou, \u017ee je to siln\u00fd z\u00e1sah, nejen do jejich st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, ale zejm\u00e9na do mo\u017enosti v\u00fddaj\u016f v oblasti ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb. Jinak \u0159e\u010deno, p\u0159i stagnaci p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu N\u011bmecka je mo\u017en\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1vat, pot\u00e9 co N\u011bmecko za\u010dne sna\u017eiv\u011b plnit tento nesmysln\u00fd z\u00e1vazek, pokles v\u00fddaj\u016f v oblasti zdravotnictv\u00ed, \u0161kolstv\u00ed, v soci\u00e1ln\u00ed oblasti a vlastn\u011b ve v\u0161ech dal\u0161\u00edch oblastech st\u00e1tn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f. To neustoj\u00ed s p\u0159ehledem \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 n\u011bmeck\u00e1 vl\u00e1da, ani vl\u00e1da velk\u00e9 koalice CDU\/CSU plus SPD, kterou lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat po \u00fanorov\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch do Bundestagu.<\/p>\n

V \u010cesku existuj\u00ed jen omezen\u011b vnit\u0159n\u00ed faktory, ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed pozitivn\u011b dynamiku hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed. Panuje pesimismus, pokud jde o objedn\u00e1vky pr\u016fmyslu v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch t\u00fddnech. Vl\u00e1da ned\u011bla nic pro to, aby pos\u00edlila hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst podp\u016frn\u00fdmi, intenzivn\u00edmi programy. Nap\u0159. v oblasti v\u00fdstavby komun\u00e1ln\u00edch byt\u016f.<\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka nevypad\u00e1 r\u016f\u017eov\u011b. \u010ce\u0161i reaguj\u00ed velmi citliv\u011b na inflaci. Pokud inflace bude atakovat i letos v\u00fd\u0161i t\u0159\u00ed procent, nelze o\u010dek\u00e1vat nijak p\u0159ehnan\u00fd r\u016fst spot\u0159eby obyvatelstva.<\/p>\n

A je\u0161t\u011b tady \u010d\u00edh\u00e1 skryt\u00e9 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed v nov\u00e9, nevypo\u010ditateln\u00e9 americk\u00e9 administrativ\u011b prezidenta Trumpa. Podle Trumpov\u00fdch slov, kter\u00e9 je pot\u0159eba br\u00e1t velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u011b, mus\u00ed Evropa zv\u00fd\u0161it odb\u011br drah\u00e9ho LNG plynu z USA. A pokud tak neu\u010din\u00ed, zavedou USA pod jeho veden\u00edm dodate\u010dn\u00e1 cla na dovozy evropsk\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed do USA. C\u00edlem Trumpa je sn\u00ed\u017eit schodek obchodn\u00ed bilance USA mj. se zem\u011bmi EU. Z toho vyplyne, \u017ee EU bude m\u00edt starosti kam uplac\u00edrovat sv\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se neuplatn\u00ed na americk\u00e9m trhu. To bude znamenat pokles v\u00fdroby v Evrop\u011b, r\u016fst inflace a probl\u00e9my. A k tomu je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159istupuj\u00ed nablbl\u00e9 p\u0159edstavy \u0159ady evropsk\u00fdch a \u010desk\u00fdch politik\u016f, \u017ee mus\u00edme vyd\u00e1vat podstatn\u011b v\u00edce na zbrojen\u00ed, ne\u017eli dosud. To by v \u010desk\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b znamenalo, nam\u00edsto leto\u0161n\u00edch necel\u00fdch 160 miliard korun, b\u011bhem p\u00e1r let p\u0159ej\u00edt a\u017e ke 240 mld. K\u010d, co\u017e by naplnilo snov\u00fd c\u00edl centr\u00e1ly NATO v Bruselu, na \u00farove\u0148 3% HDP.<\/p>\n

Shrnuto a podtr\u017eeno, \u010cesko bude letos r\u00e1do za hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst mezi nulou a jedn\u00edm procentem. A to bude generovat zj. stagnaci \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b \u010desk\u00e9ho obyvatelstva.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prezident ve sv\u00e9m novoro\u010dn\u00edm poselstv\u00ed tak trochu oblboval sv\u00e9 spoluob\u010dany t\u00edm, kdy\u017e \u0159\u00edkal, \u017ee nen\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":40930,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,506,2145,8318],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69548"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69548"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69548\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40930"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69548"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}