{"id":69495,"date":"2025-01-04T05:52:52","date_gmt":"2025-01-04T04:52:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=69495"},"modified":"2025-01-04T05:52:52","modified_gmt":"2025-01-04T04:52:52","slug":"2025-druha-renesance-nebo-chaos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/04\/2025-druha-renesance-nebo-chaos\/","title":{"rendered":"2025: Druh\u00e1 renesance, nebo chaos?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
FLORENCIE \u2013 Je oslniv\u00e9 tosk\u00e1nsk\u00e9 zimn\u00ed r\u00e1no a j\u00e1 se nach\u00e1z\u00edm uvnit\u0159 legend\u00e1rn\u00edho dominik\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho kostela Santa Maria Novella, zalo\u017een\u00e9ho na po\u010d\u00e1tku 13. stolet\u00ed a definitivn\u011b vysv\u011bcen\u00e9ho v roce 1420, na velmi zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b v D\u011bjin\u00e1ch um\u011bn\u00ed: p\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159ed jednou z monochromn\u00edch fresek namalovan\u00fdch v letech 1447-1448 mistrem perspektivy Paolem Uccellem, zobrazuj\u00edc\u00ed V\u0161eobecnou potopu.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n
\n
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\"[Paolo
Paolo Uccello: V\u0161eobecn\u00e1 potopa. Freska z roku 1448 v Santa Maria Novella ve Florencii.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Jako by Paolo Uccello zobrazoval n\u00e1s \u2013 v na\u0161\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b pln\u00e9 probl\u00e9m\u016f. Inspirov\u00e1n neoplatonickou superstar Marsiliem Ficinem \u2013 zv\u011b\u010dn\u011bn\u00fdm v elegantn\u00edm \u010derven\u00e9m h\u00e1bitu od Ghirlandaia v Cappelle Tornabuoni \u2013 jsem se tedy pokusil vyt\u00e1hnout zp\u00e1tky do budoucnosti a ide\u00e1ln\u011b si p\u0159edstavit, koho a co by Paolo Uccello p\u0159edstavil ve sv\u00e9m zobrazen\u00ed na\u0161\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 potopy.<\/p>\n

Za\u010dn\u011bme pozitivy. Rok 2024 byl rokem BRICS \u2013 p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e z\u00e1sluhu na v\u0161ech \u00fasp\u011b\u0161\u00edch m\u011blo ne\u00fanavn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 p\u0159edsednictv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Rok 2024 byl tak\u00e9 Rokem Osy odporu \u2013 a\u017e do s\u00e9riov\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f, kter\u00e9 utrp\u011bla v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch, v\u00e1\u017enou v\u00fdzvou, kter\u00e1 bude poh\u00e1n\u011bt jej\u00ed omlazen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A rok 2024 byl rokem, kter\u00fd ur\u010dil linie z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 hry v z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b: zb\u00fdv\u00e1 zjistit, jak hluboko bude \u201emezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d zalo\u017een\u00fd na pravidlech\u201c poh\u0159ben v \u010dern\u00e9 p\u016fd\u011b Novorosie.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed se v\u011bnujme nad\u011bjn\u00fdm vyhl\u00eddk\u00e1m do budoucna. Rok 2025 bude rokem upevn\u011bn\u00ed pozice \u010c\u00edny jako prvo\u0159ad\u00e9 geoekonomick\u00e9 s\u00edly na planet\u011b.<\/p>\n

Bude to rok, kdy se rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed bitva 21. stolet\u00ed \u2013 Eurasie versus NATOst\u00e1n \u2013 vyost\u0159\u00ed v \u0159ad\u011b nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdch vektor\u016f.<\/p>\n

A bude to rok postupuj\u00edc\u00edch, vz\u00e1jemn\u011b se propojuj\u00edc\u00edch koridor\u016f konektivity \u2013 ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00edho faktoru integrace Eurasie.<\/p>\n

Ne n\u00e1hodou je \u00cdr\u00e1n \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm bodem t\u00e9to propojuj\u00edc\u00ed se konektivity \u2013 od Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu (kter\u00fdm denn\u011b proch\u00e1z\u00ed nejm\u00e9n\u011b 23 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy) a\u017e po p\u0159\u00edstav \u010cabah\u00e1r, kter\u00fd spojuje z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii s ji\u017en\u00ed Asi\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Koridory propojen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je t\u0159eba sledovat, jsou n\u00e1vrat jedn\u00e9 z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch s\u00e1g Pipelineist\u00e1nu, 1 800 km dlouh\u00e9ho ropovodu Turkmenist\u00e1n-Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n-P\u00e1kist\u00e1n-Indie (TAPI); Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed severoji\u017en\u00ed dopravn\u00ed koridor (INSTC), kter\u00fd spojuje t\u0159i zem\u011b BRICS (Rusko-Ir\u00e1n-Indie) a n\u011bkolik aspiruj\u00edc\u00edch partner\u016f BRICS; \u010c\u00ednsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd koridor (CPEC), st\u011b\u017eejn\u00ed projekt iniciativy P\u00e1smo a cesta (BRI); a v neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b rychle postupuj\u00edc\u00ed Severn\u00ed mo\u0159sk\u00e1 cesta (nebo Severn\u00ed hedv\u00e1bn\u00e1 stezka, jak ji naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9), kter\u00e1 se nakonec stane nejlevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a nejrychlej\u0161\u00ed alternativou Suezsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fplavu.<\/p>\n

N\u011bkolik dn\u00ed p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm Trumpa 2.0 ve Washingtonu Rusko a \u00cdr\u00e1n v Moskv\u011b kone\u010dn\u011b ofici\u00e1ln\u011b podep\u00ed\u0161\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e dva roky p\u0159ipravovanou dohodu o komplexn\u00edm strategick\u00e9m partnerstv\u00ed: op\u011bt se jedn\u00e1 o kl\u00ed\u010dovou dohodu mezi dv\u011bma p\u0159edn\u00edmi zem\u011bmi BRICS s obrovsk\u00fdmi, kask\u00e1dovit\u00fdmi dopady z hlediska integrace Eurasie.<\/p>\n

Zcela uzav\u0159en\u00fd kan\u00e1l jedn\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h2>\n

Dmitrij Trenin, respektovan\u00fd \u010dlen rusk\u00e9 Rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a obrannou politiku, m\u00e1 zat\u00edm nejrealisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pl\u00e1n pro p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

\u201eP\u0159ijateln\u00fd\u201c to ani zdaleka nevystihuje \u2013 proto\u017ee z pohledu kolektivn\u00edch politick\u00fdch \u201aelit\u2018 Z\u00e1padu, kter\u00e9 na tuto v\u00e1lku vsadily statek a banku, nen\u00ed p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 nic krom\u011b strategick\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017eky Ruska, k n\u00ed\u017e nikdy nedojde.<\/p>\n

Za sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu prezident Putin ve skute\u010dnosti obsahuje elitn\u00ed sektory v Moskv\u011b, kter\u00e9 jsou pro to, aby se hadovi u\u0159\u00edzla nejen hlava, ale i t\u011blo.<\/p>\n

Trump m\u00e1 ze sv\u00e9 strany m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e nulovou motivaci nechat se zat\u00e1hnout do dal\u0161\u00edho marasmu; to p\u0159enechme bezradn\u00fdm evropsk\u00fdm \u010divav\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed k vratk\u00e9 \u201em\u00edrov\u00e9\u201c dohod\u011b vyhovuje i glob\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b \u2013 nemluv\u011b o \u010c\u00edn\u011b, kter\u00e1 ch\u00e1pe, jak je v\u00e1lka \u0161patn\u00e1 pro byznys (alespo\u0148 pokud nejste ve zbrojn\u00edm rau\u0161i).<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o st\u00e1le mo\u017enou \u201eexisten\u010dn\u00ed\u201c eskalaci, je\u0161t\u011b nejsme z nejhor\u0161\u00edho venku; ale st\u00e1le zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed t\u0159i t\u00fddny na n\u011bjak\u00fd velk\u00fd teroristick\u00fd p\u0159evrat, jako p\u0159i fale\u0161n\u00e9 vlajce.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed dva m\u011bs\u00edce roku 2025 budou naprosto rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed, pokud jde o na\u010drtnut\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9ho kompromisu.<\/p>\n

Elena Panina z RUSSTRATu nab\u00eddla stru\u010dn\u00e9 a st\u0159\u00edzliv\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 zhodnocen\u00ed toho, co se m\u016f\u017ee vyvrbit.<\/p>\n

To, po \u010dem Trump v podstat\u011b tou\u017e\u00ed jako po k\u00fd\u010dovit\u00e9m hamburgeru od McDonalda, je vypadat jako ultim\u00e1tn\u00ed alfa samec. Putinova taktick\u00e1 vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed strategie se tedy nebude soust\u0159edit na podkop\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed Trumpovy hry na drs\u0148\u00e1ka. Probl\u00e9m je v tom, jak to prov\u00e9st, ani\u017e by podkopal Trumpovu popovou hv\u011bzdnou s\u00edlu \u2013 a ani\u017e by p\u0159ilil dal\u0161\u00ed olej do v\u00e1le\u010dnick\u00e9ho ohn\u011b NATOst\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

Putin dr\u017e\u00ed \u0159adu trumf\u016f bl\u00edzko u sv\u00e9 hrudi \u2013 t\u00fdkaj\u00ed se Evropy, Brit\u016f, \u010c\u00edny, samotn\u00e9 Ukrajiny a glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu jako celku.<\/p>\n

Ur\u010den\u00ed sf\u00e9r vlivu bude sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 dohody. Jde o to, \u017ee by nem\u011bly uniknout \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed detaily \u2013 a mus\u00ed z\u016fstat nepropustn\u00e9 pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed rozv\u011bdku.<\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, jak poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 Panina, \u017ee Trump pot\u0159ebuje zcela uzav\u0159en\u00fd kan\u00e1l jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s Putinem, kter\u00fd nem\u016f\u017ee prolomit ani MI6.<\/p>\n

Vysok\u00fd \u00fakol, proto\u017ee privilegovan\u00fdm zio-conov\u00fdm sil\u00e1m nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d Deep State se z posledn\u00edch staronov\u00fdch psychopatologick\u00fdch v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v Libanonu a S\u00fdrii a z toho, jak oslabily Teher\u00e1n, to\u010d\u00ed hlava. To v\u0161ak neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee by spojen\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n-Rusko-\u010c\u00edna-BRICS bylo ohro\u017eeno.<\/p>\n

Dynamika je nastavena; postupujte opatrn\u011b<\/h2>\n

Putin a Rada bezpe\u010dnosti by m\u011bli b\u00fdt p\u0159ipraveni realizovat pom\u011brn\u011b slo\u017eitou, postupnou diplomatickou hru, proto\u017ee v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee trojice pora\u017een\u00fdch, vrcholn\u011b na\u0161tvan\u00fdch demokrat\u016f, Brit\u016f a Bankovc\u016f bude na Trumpa vyv\u00edjet maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed tlak a ud\u011bl\u00e1 z n\u011bj \u201enep\u0159\u00edtele Ameriky\u201c nebo n\u011bjakou podobnou blbost.<\/p>\n

Moskva nep\u0159ijme \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed ani zmrazen\u00ed: pouze skute\u010dn\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pokud to nevyjde, v\u00e1lka bude pokra\u010dovat na boji\u0161ti a Moskva s t\u00edm nem\u00e1 probl\u00e9m \u2013 ani s dal\u0161\u00ed eskalac\u00ed. Kone\u010dn\u00e9 pon\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u0158\u00ed\u0161e chaosu pak bude \u00fapln\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm studen\u00e1 v\u00e1lka 2.0 mezi \u010c\u00ednou a USA pokro\u010d\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e v popov\u00e9 sf\u00e9\u0159e ne\u017e ve sv\u00e9 podstat\u011b. Nejbyst\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed analytici v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00e9 soupe\u0159en\u00ed neprob\u00edh\u00e1 o ideologii \u2013 jako v p\u016fvodn\u00ed studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lce -, ale o technologie, od um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence po modernizaci bezprobl\u00e9mov\u00fdch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f.<\/p>\n

Trump 2.0 m\u00e1 nav\u00edc, alespo\u0148 v z\u00e1sad\u011b, men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e nulov\u00fd z\u00e1jem na rozpout\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky \u2013 ve stylu Ukrajiny \u2013 proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b na Tchaj-wanu a v Jiho\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i. \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 mnohem v\u00edce geoekonomick\u00fdch zdroj\u016f ne\u017e Rusko.<\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed tedy zrovna fascinuj\u00edc\u00ed, \u017ee Trump raz\u00ed my\u0161lenku G2 mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou. Deep State blob to bude pova\u017eovat za nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mor \u2013 a bude proti tomu bojovat a\u017e do smrti. Jist\u00e9 u\u017e je, \u017ee za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee se to uskute\u010dn\u00ed, z\u016fstanou evrop\u0161t\u00ed pudl\u00edci utopen\u00ed ve \u0161pinav\u00e9 ba\u017ein\u011b.<\/p>\n

Inu, politick\u00e9 \u201eelity\u201c, kter\u00e9 jmenuj\u00ed mozkov\u011b vypatlan\u00e9 exempl\u00e1\u0159e, jako je Med\u00faza von der Lying a ta batshit crazy estonsk\u00e1 buchta, vrcholn\u00fdmi p\u0159edstaviteli EU; kter\u00e9 rozpoutaj\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti sv\u00e9mu nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu dodavateli energie; kter\u00e9 pln\u011b podporuj\u00ed genocidu vys\u00edlanou 24 hodin denn\u011b, 7 dn\u00ed v t\u00fddnu na celou planetu; kter\u00e9 jsou posedl\u00e9 vym\u00fdcen\u00edm kultury, kter\u00e1 je definovala; a kter\u00e9 v nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u011bnuj\u00ed demokracii a svobod\u011b projevu jen \u00fastn\u00ed projevy, tyto \u201eelity\u201c si opravdu zaslou\u017e\u00ed ut\u00e1p\u011bt se ve \u0161p\u00edn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o syrskou trag\u00e9dii, Putin v\u00ed, kdo je skute\u010dn\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00edtelem; rozhodn\u011b ne banda salafisticko-d\u017eih\u00e1distick\u00fdch \u017eold\u00e1k\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed \u0159e\u017eou hlavy. A sult\u00e1n v Anka\u0159e tak\u00e9 nen\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edtel; z pohledu Moskvy je p\u0159es v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 vzne\u0161en\u00e9 sny o nahrazen\u00ed \u201eSt\u0159edn\u00ed Asie\u201c \u201eTurkest\u00e1nem\u201c v turkick\u00fdch \u0161koln\u00edch u\u010debnic\u00edch bezv\u00fdznamn\u00fdm geoekonomick\u00fdm, a dokonce i geopolitick\u00fdm hr\u00e1\u010dem.<\/p>\n

Budeme-li parafr\u00e1zovat nedoceniteln\u00e9ho Michaela Hudsona \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 na\u0161eho Marsilia Ficina p\u0159evle\u010den\u00e9ho Paolem Uccellem za spisovatele v elegantn\u00edm \u010derven\u00e9m h\u00e1bitu -, je to, jako by v tomto p\u0159edpotopn\u00edm okam\u017eiku americk\u00e9 elity \u0159\u00edkaly: \u201eJedin\u00fdm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm je tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lka s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou\u201c; Rusko \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201eDouf\u00e1me, \u017ee na Ukrajin\u011b a v Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii bude m\u00edr\u201c; a \u010c\u00edna \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201eChceme m\u00edr, ne v\u00e1lku\u201c.<\/p>\n

To nemus\u00ed sta\u010dit k dosa\u017een\u00ed kompromisu \u2013 jak\u00e9hokoli kompromisu. Dynamika je tedy nastavena: vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed t\u0159\u00edda USA bude nad\u00e1le vnucovat p\u0159\u00edpady chaosu, zat\u00edmco Rusko, \u010c\u00edna a BRICS budou v \u201elaborato\u0159i BRICS\u201c nad\u00e1le testovat modely de-dolarizace, alternativn\u00ed uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed k MMF a Sv\u011btov\u00e9 bance a nakonec i alternativu k NATO.<\/p>\n

Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b anarchie a v\u00e1lka s terorismem v rohu hojnosti, na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b chladnokrevn\u00fd a koordinovan\u00fd realismus. Bu\u010fte p\u0159ipraveni \u2013 na cokoli. Z renesan\u010dn\u00ed Florencie, jednoho z \u2013 nemnoha \u2013 vrchol\u016f lidstva, kter\u00e9 nyn\u00ed \u017eij\u00ed v pam\u011bti, opatrn\u011b na\u0161lapujte p\u0159es tento plamenn\u00fd rok 2025.<\/p>\n

Pepe Escobar<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n

2025: A second Renaissance, or chaos?<\/a> vy\u0161el 31.12.2024 na Strategic Culture. P\u0159eklad\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FLORENCIE \u2013 Je oslniv\u00e9 tosk\u00e1nsk\u00e9 zimn\u00ed r\u00e1no a j\u00e1 se nach\u00e1z\u00edm uvnit\u0159 legend\u00e1rn\u00edho dominik\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho kostela…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":55479,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[59,2181,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69495"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69495\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55479"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}