{"id":69407,"date":"2025-01-03T00:36:41","date_gmt":"2025-01-02T23:36:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=69407"},"modified":"2025-01-02T16:17:28","modified_gmt":"2025-01-02T15:17:28","slug":"zbynek-fiala-za-co-soudruzi-za-co","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/03\/zbynek-fiala-za-co-soudruzi-za-co\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Za co, soudruzi? Za co?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Zav\u0159en\u00ed kohoutk\u016f ukrajinsk\u00fdch plynovod\u016f je dal\u0161\u00ed r\u00e1na ze z\u00e1zra\u010dn\u00e9 zbran\u011b, st\u0159\u00edlej\u00edc\u00ed za roh jako bumerang. Navazuje na tradici kaj\u00edcn\u00edk\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed putovali krajinou a \u0161lehali se bi\u010dem po z\u00e1dech. Jen\u017ee te\u010f to schytaj\u00ed i ti kolem.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Uzav\u0159en\u00ed kohoutk\u016f na ukrajinsk\u00fdch trubk\u00e1ch s\u00a0rusk\u00fdm plynem p\u0159edstavuje bahnit\u00fd start roku po nejist\u00e9 trase. Obavy evropsk\u00fdch v\u00fdrobc\u016f zachycuje index podnikatelsk\u00e9 d\u016fv\u011bry, kter\u00fd se dr\u017e\u00ed u dna. Setrv\u00e1v\u00e1 na hodnot\u011b 45,1, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jen men\u0161\u00ed polovina dot\u00e1zan\u00fdch podnikatel\u016f a mana\u017eer\u016f v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee si pom\u016f\u017ee nebo to n\u011bjak ustoj\u00ed. V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed polovina, skoro 55 procent, to vid\u00ed \u010dern\u011b.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/europe\/euro-zone-factories-saw-little-festive-cheer-december-pmi-shows-2025-01-02\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Origin\u00e1ln\u00ed je p\u0159edstava na\u0161eho premi\u00e9ra Petra Fialy, \u017ee zru\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti na levn\u00e9m rusk\u00e9m plynu je dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va, kterou si nesm\u00edme nechat zast\u0159\u00edt n\u011bjak\u00fdmi prodava\u010di strachu. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b EU, tedy N\u011bmecko, Francie a It\u00e1lie u\u017e jsou v\u00a0recesi, p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed Reuters. Jedin\u011b \u0160pan\u011blsko, z\u00e1sobovan\u00e9 tradi\u010dn\u011b z\u00a0Al\u017e\u00edrska, pokra\u010duje v\u00a0r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n

Pro\u010d by se m\u011bl\u00a0loaj\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010desk\u00fd ob\u010dan budoucnosti b\u00e1t? Sta\u010d\u00ed se pod\u00edvat na ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed progn\u00f3zy, kter\u00fdmi je vyzdoben n\u00e1\u0161 st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det. Ty slibuj\u00ed r\u016fst HDP t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o t\u0159i procenta!<\/p>\n

Kdybychom se v\u0161ak soust\u0159edili jenom na r\u016fst n\u00e1klad\u016f se kter\u00fdmi se bude muset n\u00e1\u0161 pr\u016fmysl vyrovnat, aby splnil tento n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed pl\u00e1n (a v\u00a0nejhor\u0161\u00edm aspo\u0148 nezdechl), naraz\u00edme bohu\u017eel na mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla.<\/p>\n

Svaz pr\u016fmyslu a\u00a0dopravy \u010cR pova\u017euje za\u00a0jednu z\u00a0hlavn\u00edch brzd ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu vysok\u00e9 ceny energi\u00ed v\u00a0mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm srovn\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0silnou regula\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e firem, varuje v\u00a0bilan\u010dn\u00ed anal\u00fdze v\u00a0Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch novin\u00e1ch m\u016fj n\u011bkdej\u0161\u00ed kolega z\u00a0Ekonoma Martin Pet\u0159\u00ed\u010dek. Jak uv\u00e1d\u00ed, potvrzuj\u00ed to i\u00a0samotn\u00ed byznysmeni, zejm\u00e9na ti z\u00a0energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fdch provoz\u016f.<\/p>\n

\u201ePokud st\u00e1t nep\u0159ehodnot\u00ed tvorbu koncepce ceny energi\u00ed pro pr\u016fmysl, nebudeme v\u00a0r\u00e1mci Evropy \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00ed. Pro podnik\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0\u010cesku bychom proto uv\u00edtali proaktivn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup vl\u00e1dy, i\u00a0t\u00e9 budouc\u00ed zvolen\u00e9, ke\u00a0strategick\u00e9mu \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pr\u016fmyslu v\u00a0\u010cesku,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel skupiny T\u0159ineck\u00e9 \u017eelez\u00e1rny Roman Heide. Jinak hroz\u00ed uzav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed provoz\u016f podobn\u011b jako v\u00a0N\u011bmecku.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/byznys.hn.cz\/c1-67522580-ceska-ekonomika-ma-za-sebou-ztracenou-petiletku-co-prijde-po-ni-ktere-obory-mohou-rust-a-ktere-skonci<\/a><\/p>\n

S\u00a0t\u00edm bojem s\u00a0prodava\u010di strachu si premi\u00e9r Fiala vybral hodn\u011b t\u011b\u017ekou discipl\u00ednu, proto\u017ee krom\u011b n\u00e1s, v Evrop\u011b skoro na nic jin\u00e9ho nenaraz\u00ed. A te\u010f i \u010de\u0161t\u00ed byznysmeni?? \u017de by to s\u00a0t\u00edm zav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00edm provoz\u016f p\u0159eh\u00e1n\u011bli?<\/p>\n

Jak se do toho prom\u00edtne z\u00e1ducha ukrajinsk\u00fdch trubek? Teoreticky o moc nejde, podle ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch statistik EU klesl pod\u00edl rusk\u00e9ho plynu dod\u00e1van\u00e9ho plynovody ze 40 procent roku 2021 na 8 procent roku 2023. Jen\u017ee teori\u00ed se nezah\u0159ejeme. Na\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed ne v\u0161e je tak, jak se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Podle \u010dervnov\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy americk\u00e9ho\u00a0\u00a0Brookings Institution<\/em>, zav\u0159en\u00ed kohoutk\u016f plynovod\u016f z\u00a0Ruska neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee tento plyn nenakupujeme jin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem a jinou cestou. Zpr\u00e1vu o studii jsem zaznamenal na odborn\u00e9m webu oEnergetice.cz.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/oenergetice.cz\/plyn\/evropa-stale-celi-vyzve-v-podobe-zavislosti-na-ruskem-plynu<\/a><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 unie m\u00e1 energetickou politiku ve sv\u00e9 DNA,\u00a0<\/em>p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 americk\u00fd think tank,\u00a0nebo\u0165 vznikla z Evropsk\u00e9ho spole\u010denstv\u00ed uhl\u00ed a oceli, kter\u00e9 bylo zalo\u017eeno v roce 1951 s c\u00edlem \u0159e\u0161it ot\u00e1zky dod\u00e1vek energie vznikl\u00e9 po druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed historie energetick\u00e9 politiky Evropsk\u00e9 unie (EU) je v\u0161ak ve znamen\u00ed neust\u00e1l\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi n\u00e1rodn\u00edm protekcionismem a snahou EU prohloubit integraci a odstranit p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu s energi\u00ed, \u0159e\u0161it ot\u00e1zky klimatu a udr\u017eitelnosti, a nakonec, po rusko-ukrajinsk\u00fdch sporech o plyn v polovin\u011b roku 2000 a geopolitick\u00e9m nap\u011bt\u00ed v severn\u00ed Africe a na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, dos\u00e1hnout i bezpe\u010dnosti dod\u00e1vek.<\/em><\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee ono je to docela zamotan\u00e9:<\/p>\n

Vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, zda je v z\u00e1jmu Ukrajiny zastavit p\u0159epravu plynu z Ruska. A\u017e ukrajinsk\u00e1 ekonomika op\u011bt za\u010dne r\u016fst a na popt\u00e1vku po plynu nebude sta\u010dit dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkce, vzniknou Ukrajin\u011b zna\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na dod\u00e1vky z jin\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Evropy.<\/em><\/p>\n

Zem\u011b EU nav\u00edc vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00edky plynu na z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b (s t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 33 miliardami m3 jsou v Evrop\u011b druh\u00e9 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed po Rusku), ale plyn do t\u011bchto z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f ve skute\u010dnosti nep\u0159epravuj\u00ed. M\u00edsto toho „vym\u011b\u0148uj\u00ed“ plyn v za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edch EU za rusk\u00fd plyn dr\u017een\u00fd na Ukrajin\u011b, aby jej pozd\u011bji vyu\u017eily. Tyto transakce by nebyly mo\u017en\u00e9 bez dod\u00e1vek rusk\u00e9ho plynu.<\/em><\/p>\n

Lo\u0148sk\u00e1 tepl\u00e1 zima n\u00e1m probl\u00e9my s\u00a0plynem zna\u010dn\u011b uleh\u010dila. I proto cena zemn\u00edho plynu celou zimu soustavn\u011b klesala a na konci \u00fanora dos\u00e1hla polovi\u010dn\u00ed hodnoty, ne\u017e m\u00e1 dnes. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, plyn je te\u010f dvakr\u00e1t dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e na konci minul\u00e9 zimy.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/oenergetice.cz\/energostat\/commodity\/other-gas\/ttf_gas_month_1\/2024-01-01\/2024-12-02<\/a><\/p>\n

Letos se za\u010dalo topit d\u0159\u00edv a z\u00e1sobn\u00edky byly o n\u011bco m\u00e9n\u011b pln\u00e9 ne\u017e loni, a tak u\u017e vid\u00edme pokles napln\u011bn\u00ed z\u00a092 na 73 procent, o p\u011btinu, tedy zna\u010dn\u00fd. P\u0159itom je ot\u00e1zka, jak daleko lze p\u0159i \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f doj\u00edt, \u010dili jak n\u00edzko m\u016f\u017ee tlak v\u00a0z\u00e1sobn\u00edc\u00edch klesnout, aby to je\u0161t\u011b fungovalo.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/oenergetice.cz\/energostat\/gas\/gas-storage\/eu\/2020-01-01\/2024-12-31<\/a><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u011b Rusko hospod\u00e1\u0159sky utrp\u00ed v\u00edc ne\u017e ten, kdo se mu sna\u017eil zredukovat zdroje p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f na v\u00e1lku?<\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 ekonomika vypov\u00edd\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e o tom druh\u00e9m. Koment\u00e1to\u0159i mluv\u00ed o ztracen\u00e9 p\u011btiletce, kdy na covidov\u00e9 lockdowny plynule nav\u00e1zaly sankce proti Rusku. Jen\u017ee t\u00edm jsme mu docela pomohli, proto\u017ee jsme ho fakticky osvobodili od omezuj\u00edc\u00edch obchodn\u00edch pravidel a dohledu nadn\u00e1rodn\u00edch instituc\u00ed, jak je WTO, kter\u00e9 ve skute\u010dnosti jen garantuj\u00ed zisky nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch korporac\u00ed. Dokl\u00e1d\u00e1 to fakt, \u017ee oproti nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji evropsk\u00e9 ekonomiky, jak jej signalizuje i v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd index podnikatelsk\u00e9 d\u016fv\u011bry, rusk\u00e1 ekonomika loni vzrostla podle americk\u00fdch expertn\u00edch odhad\u016f o 4 procenta.<\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 v\u00a0tom hledaj\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9 slabiny:<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pracuj\u00ed na 81 % kapacity a 73 % podnik\u016f hl\u00e1s\u00ed nedostatek pracovn\u00edch sil. Nezam\u011bstnanost dos\u00e1hla rekordn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b 2,3 procenta, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e odhadem z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 neobsazeno 1,6 milionu pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst. Z praktick\u00e9ho hlediska nem\u016f\u017ee dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomika uspokojit popt\u00e1vku vyvolanou agresivn\u00edmi v\u00fddaji st\u00e1tu a dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, co\u017e vy\u017eaduje v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1vislost na dovozu. To n\u00e1sledn\u011b zvy\u0161uje popt\u00e1vku po zahrani\u010dn\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b, vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed tlak na pokles rublu a podporuje inflaci.<\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/russia-eurasia\/politika\/2024\/12\/russia-economy-difficulties?lang=en<\/a><\/p>\n

Tady je mo\u017en\u00e1 vhodn\u00e9 p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee Rusku se z\u00e1rove\u0148 da\u0159\u00ed v\u00e9st v\u00e1lku s\u00a0ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1klady ne\u017e Z\u00e1padu, aspo\u0148 kdy\u017e porovn\u00e1me v\u00fd\u0161i rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed letos v\u00a0Rusku \u010dinit v\u00a0p\u0159epo\u010dtu 145 miliard dolar\u016f, zat\u00edmco v\u00a0USA maj\u00ed v\u00a0n\u00e1vrhu rozpo\u010dtu na leto\u0161n\u00ed rok \u010d\u00e1stku 850 miliard dolar\u016f. To je skoro \u0161estkr\u00e1t tolik.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/russia-hikes-national-defence-spending-by-23-2025-2024-09-30\/<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/publication\/61017<\/a><\/p>\n

Vra\u0165me se k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00fdm plynem je koncipov\u00e1no jako sankce. \u00a0Opravdu v\u0161ak nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, v\u016f\u010di komu. Americk\u00fd plyn, kter\u00fdm m\u00e1 b\u00fdt rusk\u00fd plyn nahrazov\u00e1n, je dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed. To jsou holt n\u00e1klady boje. Ale jak je to s\u00a0bezpe\u010dnost\u00ed z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed? Nemluv\u011b o klimatu, kter\u00fd dost\u00e1v\u00e1 zabrat emisemi z t\u011b\u017eby, ze zkapal\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed a zply\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed, a zejm\u00e9na z cest tanker\u016f kolem sv\u011bta. Je taky ot\u00e1zka, co se stane, a\u017e Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 budou ten plyn pot\u0159ebovat v\u00edce ne\u017e my. T\u0159eba pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f, kdy se po USA rozl\u00e9v\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edliv ledov\u00e9ho vzduchu z\u00a0Arktidy.<\/p>\n

Dokonce i Brookings to vid\u00ed jako n\u00e1ro\u010dnou v\u00fdzvu pro budoucnost evropsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu:<\/p>\n

Celkov\u011b lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee Evropa prozat\u00edm z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na dovozu plynu; pouze diverzifikovala sv\u00e9 dodavatele a zv\u00fd\u0161ila svou relativn\u00ed z\u00e1vislost na dra\u017e\u0161\u00edm LNG. Udr\u017een\u00ed konkurenceschopnosti evropsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu vzhledem k vysok\u00fdm cen\u00e1m LNG a obrovsk\u00fdm vl\u00e1dn\u00edm dota\u010dn\u00edm program\u016fm pro \u010distou energii ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech a \u010c\u00edn\u011b bude v\u00fdzvou. Energetick\u00e1 autarkie je pro Evropu samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nedosa\u017eiteln\u00e1. Zku\u0161enosti z let 2022-2024 by v\u0161ak m\u011bly b\u00fdt mocnou hnac\u00ed silou pro pos\u00edlen\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti dod\u00e1vek, zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edch tok\u016f a investice do obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f a p\u0159echodu na zelenou energii.<\/em><\/p>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fd rok, a to jsme se rozhodli, \u017ee do n\u011bj vb\u011bhneme se sv\u00e1zan\u00fdma nohama. Zd\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee to nen\u00ed ono. N\u011bco d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9ho n\u00e1m z\u0159ejm\u011b uteklo.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 to dobu d\u00e1vno minulou, kdy znaven\u00fd mu\u017e, kter\u00e9ho kaln\u00e9 r\u00e1no ulo\u017eilo na ulici tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed do m\u0159\u00ed\u017ee od kan\u00e1lu, bezmocn\u011b \u0161ept\u00e1: \u201eZa co, soudruzi? Za co?\u201c<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zav\u0159en\u00ed kohoutk\u016f ukrajinsk\u00fdch plynovod\u016f je dal\u0161\u00ed r\u00e1na ze z\u00e1zra\u010dn\u00e9 zbran\u011b, st\u0159\u00edlej\u00edc\u00ed za roh jako bumerang….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":25620,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[59,41,2718,1008,2109,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69407"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69407"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69407\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25620"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}